2025-04-02

Modeling

Modeling

  • All models are wrong, some are useful (George Cox)
  • All we do is Science fiction, we just have to make sure to use more science that fiction

Systematic conservation planning

Systematic conservation planning

  • Stop using “just” subjective beauty or values for conservation
  • Stop focusing on charismatic species
  • Systematic conservation planning: structured decision analysis approach with a series of stages that concern both the design and implementation of conservation actions to meet specific objectives, usually through the spatial prioritization of the most feasible places for conservation investment

Example 1

Chilean patagonia

  • 52.44% of area protected (Half earth)
  • 71,461.48 square kilometers

Landscapes of the Chilean Patagonia

  • Grasslands

Forests

We’ll use Menti to explore your decisions

Select a new area to protect

  • Select 2

Which areas would you protect?

🧭 Based only on biodiversity information: - Choose 2 areas to protect - Use the Menti code 8306 9647 to vote

Area ID Richness nature_typ
78.22 5 3 Deciduous forest
78.22 12 3 Deciduous forest
77.67 25 10 Evergreen forest
78.22 26 10 Evergreen forest
78.22 36 9 Steppes and grasslands
78.22 62 8 Steppes and grasslands
74.75 101 2 Deciduous shrubland
78.03 105 5 Deciduous shrubland
70.24 113 2 No vegetation

Are all nature types protected

Nature

Representativity 1

nature_type area_protected Percentage_protected
Evergreen forest 29487.7559 39.84
Peatland 22948.0666 31.00
No vegetation 15137.7522 20.45
High-altitude grassland 4394.5407 5.94
Deciduous shrubland 1039.1316 1.40
Deciduous forest 737.5141 1.00
Low highland shrubland 218.9199 0.30
Steppes and grasslands 53.8861 0.07

New info

  • with this new information select 2 areas

Select 2 areas

Area ID Richness nature_typ
78.22 5 3 Deciduous forest
78.22 12 3 Deciduous forest
77.67 25 10 Evergreen forest
78.22 26 10 Evergreen forest
78.22 36 9 Steppes and grasslands
78.22 62 8 Steppes and grasslands
74.75 101 2 Deciduous shrubland
78.03 105 5 Deciduous shrubland
70.24 113 2 No vegetation

“Now that you know that some habitats are already protected, would you change your decision?”

More representativity information

Nature

Representativity 2

nature_type area_protected Percentage_protected Percentage difference
Evergreen forest 29487.76 39.84 31.23 8.61
Peatland 22948.07 31.00 20.88 10.12
No vegetation 15137.75 20.45 13.49 6.96
High-altitude grassland 4394.54 5.94 5.45 0.49
Deciduous shrubland 1039.13 1.40 5.22 -3.82
Deciduous forest 737.51 1.00 7.09 -6.09
Low highland shrubland 218.92 0.30 1.41 -1.11
Steppes and grasslands 53.89 0.07 15.22 -15.15

With this new information select 2 sites

Select 2 areas

Area ID Richness nature_typ
78.22 5 3 Deciduous forest
78.22 12 3 Deciduous forest
77.67 25 10 Evergreen forest
78.22 26 10 Evergreen forest
78.22 36 9 Steppes and grasslands
78.22 62 8 Steppes and grasslands
74.75 101 2 Deciduous shrubland
78.03 105 5 Deciduous shrubland
70.24 113 2 No vegetation

“Now that you have seen the percentages, would you change your decision?”

Now let’s add carbon storage

strata Area ID Richness nature_typ Carbon
Bosque caducifolio 78.22 5 3 Deciduous forest 230.42
Bosque caducifolio 78.22 12 3 Deciduous forest 138.20
Bosque siempreverde 77.67 25 10 Evergreen forest 276.21
Bosque siempreverde 78.22 26 10 Evergreen forest 248.81
Estepas y Pastizales 78.22 36 9 Steppes and grasslands 74.01
Estepas y Pastizales 78.22 62 8 Steppes and grasslands 103.93
Matorral caducifolio 78.03 105 5 Deciduous shrubland 166.50
Matorral caducifolio 74.75 101 2 Deciduous shrubland 103.54
Sin vegetacion 70.24 113 2 No vegetation 147.96

🌍 Considering carbon stocks, would you change your decision?

🧭 What did we learn?

  • Conservation priorities change as we add new layers of information
  • We may have biases (e.g., forests vs. grasslands, charismatic species)
  • Decisions involve trade-offs between:
    • Biodiversity
    • Ecosystem representation
    • Feasibility and constraints

🤔 Would your original choices still be your final ones? Why or why not?

Break

Example 2

How to plan for future landscapes

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} + \text{Human dimension}\end{align*}\)

  • Biodiversity
    • Community composition and rarity
    • Phylogenetic Diversity
    • Functional diversity*
  • Resilience
    • Contiguity (Area)
    • Stochastic components and Global Change Vulnerability
    • Network stability (Trophic and/or mutualistic)*
    • Ecosystem Functioning*
  • Human dimension
    • Food and resource security (Eg. Renewable energy, water)
    • Minimize conflict*

Biodiversity

Maximize biodiversity

\[\max_{\text{ConservationIndex}} \sum_{l, c}^{L,C} \text{LanduseDecision}_{l, c} \cdot \text{S}_{l, c} \cdot \text{PD}_{l, c}\cdot \text{Rar}_{l, c}\]

Resilience

Resilience

  • Resilience
    • Contiguity (Area)
    • Stochastic components and Global Change Vulnerability
    • Network stability (Trophic and/or mutualistic)*
    • Ecosystem Functioning*

\[\max_{\text{ObjectiveFunction}} \sum_{i, j} \text{DecisionVariable}_{l, i} \cdot \text{DecisionVariable}_{l, j} \cdot \text{Bonus}\]

Species area relationship

  • More area can keep more species
  • Example for animals in Danish forest

Example Landuse (Global contribution)

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} \cdot \text{bonus}\end{align*}\)

  • Trade-off

Individual cell values (Local contribution)

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity}_c + \text{Resilience}_c\cdot \text{bonus}\end{align*}\)

Example Denmark

Work in progress

  • Stochasticity and climate change vulnerability

Example 2 Vilhelmsborg

Transforming Agriculture to nature

Can we measure culture

Can we measure culture

Can we measure culture

How to deal with expert knowledge

Bossmaps

  • How we deaæ with expert knowledge in sdm?

Expert maps

How do we measure beauty

Intangible services?

Intangible services?

Exercises

Use survey

  • Here is the link for the following exercises

Landuse

  • There are 5 Species

Exercise 1

Which landuse would you pick for each cell

Exercise 2

  • Constraint you can only change 3 landuse cells

Exercise 3

  • Constraint 1: you can only change 3 landuse cells
  • Constraint 2: No species can go extinct