The WxEM Project
Highlights from Wave 2
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Geographic distribution of respondents
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Severe weather forecasts often include multiple pieces of information. We want to know how important each of the following pieces of information is to you. Please rank each piece of information from most important (1) to least important (6).
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Some EMs look for different kinds of information at different points in time. In the next few questions, we are going to give you a timeline and ask you to indicate the type of information that is most important at each point in time.
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To the best of your knowledge, which of the following hazards does the NWS consider when issuing severe thunderstorm warnings? Please indicate all that apply.
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How would you rate your understanding of severe thunderstorm warnings?
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If you had to guess, about how many severe thunderstorm warnings does your area (jurisdiction) receive in an average year?
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In your opinion, how important are severe thunderstorm warnings to help protect people in your area from dangerous weather?
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Please fill in the blank in the following statement: The NWS issues _________________ severe thunderstorm warnings.
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In addition to watches and warnings, the NWS uses a variety of graphics to convey the risk of severe weather. We are testing a few new graphics and are interested in your first impressions.
For example, here is a graphic that displays the risk of severe hail for an area.
Note: respondents saw only one of these graphics (random assignment).
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How much risk does this forecast suggest for people in Location A?
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How likely is it that you would recommend people change their plans for the day if they were in Location A?
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Here is a different graphic that displays the risk of tornadoes for an area.
Note: respondents saw only one of these graphics (random assignment).
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How much risk does this forecast suggest for people in Location A?
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How likely is it that you would recommend people change their plans for the day if they were in Location A?
SPC Convective Outlook
You may also know that the NWS (Storm Prediction Center) issues Convective Outlooks to indicate severe thunderstorm threats across the contiguous United States. Convective Outlooks include three components:
- A categorical forecast that indicates the overall severe weather threat in an area (1 - Marginal, 2 - Slight, 3 - Enhanced, 4 - Moderate, 5 - High).
- Probabilistic forecasts that indicate the probability of severe hail, wind, or tornadoes in an area.
- A text narrative or forecast discussion that summarizes the forecast using a plain-language summary and a more in-depth scientific discussion.
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Do you currently use the Convective Outlook?
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Which component(s) of the Convective Outlook do you currently use?
SPC Convective Outlook
To address this issue, the NWS is considering a move from discrete lines to continuous probabilities that show a more complete (smoother) distribution of probabilities between lines.
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Do you think this change would improve EM and public understanding of the Convective Outlook?
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If the SPC makes this change, would you change your operating procedures in any way?
SPC Convective Outlook
To address this issue, the NWS is considering an addition to the outlook that provides conditional intensity information. Research and development are ongoing, but this addition would highlight areas in the outlook where if storms do form, they are more likely to produce especially large hail (2+ inches), strong winds (75+ mph), or strong tornadoes (EF2+).
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Do you think this change would improve EM and public understanding of the Convective Outlook?
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If the SPC makes this change, would you change your operating procedures in any way?
