Forecast Report with Analog Years-Somalia OND

Introduction

This is the Somalia December Sorghum forecast report. The goal is to assist users in evaluating current forecasts in the context of past forecasts and to translate the forecast component into key assumptions about food security.

The report includes the following key components:

1. A verbal summary of assumptions based on the statistics in this forecast

2. Mean Area, Production, and Yield over the years 2010-2020:This provides context for interpreting the grain data

3. Historical Out of Sample Forecast Error Averaged Over a 10 Year+ Period. We show the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE).

4. Yield Forecast, (based on December 2022 Precip, NDVI, Et0 ) expressed as percent of mean yield over the period 2012 - 2022.

Assumption Statements

Average Forecast Error For This Point in the Season

At this point in the season historical forecast error, is on average, below 40% for the admin units used in the forecast.

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Admin Units Forecast to have Above or Below Average Yields

Of the admin units used in the forecast:

Averages are based on the most recent 10 year period of observed yields: (2010-2020)

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The forecast identifies severe yield issues (lowest on record) in the following Admin Unit 2-zones:

The forecast identifies substantially below-average yields (among the lowest 3 on record) in the following Admin Unit 2-zones:

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Summary Figures

Mean area, production, and yields for the years 2010-2020 .

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Out of Sample Forecast Error (MAPE)

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) calculated based on historical out of sample seasonal forecasts. Lower scores indicate greater accuracy. Forecasts are based on model type MODEL¹

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Yield Forecast for December 2022

Forecast values expressed as percent of Mean Yields over the Years 2010-2020 .

The figure shows predicted percent of mean (center) as well as lower (left) and higher (right) predicted percent of mean intervals.

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Static and Dynamic Version of Main Forecast

Roll over the polygon borders to get the district name and % of mean forecast value.

Static Version

This map shows the main % of mean forecast value along with district labels for reference.

Discrete Map

This map shows the main % of mean forecast binned into discrete values. Averages are based on the most recent 10 year period of observed yields: 2012 - 2022

This table shows the forecast percentage of mean values in the above table along with the mean yield values from the first figure.

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Table of Mean Yields and Predicted Percent of Mean Values

District	% of mean	% of mean (low)	% of mean (high)
Hargeysa	149	123	149
Gabiley	96	66	96
Beledweyn	144	87	144
Bulo-Burte	130	83	130
Jalalaqsi	153	116	153
Jowhar	82	44	82
Aadan Yabaal	110	69	110
Balcad	117	85	117
Cadale	108	106	108
Afgooye	104	81	104
Qoryooley	96	70	96
Wanla Weyn	83	51	83
Baydhabo	98	83	98
Buur Hakaba	100	80	100
Diinsoor	134	113	134
Qansax Dheere	116	88	116
Xudur	113	102	113
Tiyeglow	52	40	52
Waajid	109	105	109
Garbahaarey	129	127	129
Baardheere	104	81	104
Beled-Xaawo	114	94	114
Doolow	115	107	115
Luuq	91	80	91
Bu'aale	85	44	85
Saakow	96	54	96
Afmadow	138	96	138

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# Analog Year Forecasts Yield forecasts in analog years. <–DESCRIPTION OF ANALOG YEAR PROCESS–>.
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# Analog Year Forecasts Errors Forecast errors in analog years. If observed data is not available in a given year we cannot calculate forecast errors. Values are expressed a percentage of observed yields in a given year (t):

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\[\frac{(observed_{(t)}-forecast_{(t)})}{observed_{(t)}}\] ***

Positive (+) values indicate an under prediction. Negative (-) values indicate an over prediction.

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1. Extra/Extended Trees. A type of Random Forest Model↩︎