Last issue

Included this week:

  • New Dwelling Completions & Commencements
  • Car Sales & Manufacturing
  • The Irish Economy
    • Government Finances
    • Capital Goods Indices
    • Retail Sales Index

Housing Delivery

Completions received much attention in the media this week. Firstly details emerged of findings from an unpublished report by the Housing Commission emerged. The most “plausible” scenario reportedly projects the range for units required to 2050 to be between 42,000 and 62,000 homes per year. Naturally the papers focused on the latter for the headline. Given that it’s unpublished it can’t be discerned what weight / probability the Commission gives to the range of outcomes (some below and beyond the most plausible). However, projections that 30,000 will satisy demand seem a thing of the past.

Second there was the data release for residential completions, strong year on year growth to Q4 had the Minister claiming that Ireland has “turned a corner on housing.”.

Completions

Commencements



Outlook

If Ireland has turned a corner in housing delivery, perhaps its on commencements rather than completions.

Commencement data is unavailable for the House and Apartment split in the public domain.

Commencement data is unavailable for the House and Apartment split in the public domain.


I've shown this before but it is relevant to recent developments and discussion of the government actively considering purchasing uncommenced apartments.

I’ve shown this before but it is relevant to recent developments and discussion of the government actively considering purchasing uncommenced apartments.


New Car Sales

This week it was announced that there would be 3,200 workers laid off by Ford in Europe, in the week which Tech layoffs may have stolen the headlines. Car sales have traditionally been a “bellweather” for the economy, but the car manufacturing industry has other headwinds most notably climate. - And electric car production is less labour intensive.

Traditional vehicles in decline, so the traditional metric for measuring the economy may be less insightful than in previous downturns.

Traditional vehicles in decline, so the traditional metric for measuring the economy may be less insightful than in previous downturns.


The Irish Economy

Government Finances

Capital Goods Index

Industrial Price Index

Retail Sales Index

Retail sales and manufacturing data in the US have started to show signs of weakness, Europe as laggeed the US in other economic trends of late so it may be the same in this instance. Series seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation..

Retail sales and manufacturing data in the US have started to show signs of weakness, Europe as laggeed the US in other economic trends of late so it may be the same in this instance. Series seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation..