1. What is the data that you chose? Why?
For this assignment, I will use information from article "How to play: Blackjack" (also known as
Twenty-One in Cards games) from the website:
http://www.bicyclecards.com/how-to-play/blackjack/
The rules are simple, the play is thrilling, and there is opportunity for high strategy.
In fact, for the expert player who mathematically plays a perfect game and is able to count cards,
the odds are sometimes in that player's favor to win. For more please visit the above website.
I will use the network graphical representation for the final "Pay Off" between player and dealer.
The data is generated out of the basic strategy as shown in the next paragraph (Basic Strategy).
Basic Strategy
Winning tactics in Blackjack require that the player play each hand in the optimum way, and
such strategy always takes into account what the dealer's upcard is. When the dealer's upcard
is a good one, a 7, 8, 9, 10-card, or ace for example, the player should not stop drawing until
a total of 17 or more is reached. When the dealer's upcard is a poor one, 4, 5, or 6, the player
should stop drawing as soon as he gets a total of 12 or higher. The strategy here is never to
take a card if there is any chance of going bust. The desire with this poor holding is to let
the dealer hit and hopefully go over 21. Finally, when the dealer's up card is a fair one, 2 or 3,
the player should stop with a total of 13 or higher.
With a soft hand, the general strategy is to keep hitting until a total of at least 18 is reached.
Thus, with an ace and a six (7 or 17), the player would not stop at 17, but would hit.
The basic strategy for doubling down is as follows:
With a total of 11, the player should always double down.
With a total of 10, he should double down unless the dealer shows a ten-card or an ace.
With a total of 9, he should double down only if the dealer's card is fair or poor (2 through 6).
For splitting, the player should always split a pair of aces or 8s;
identical ten-cards should not be split, and neither should a pair of 5s,
since two 5s are a total of 10, which can be used more effectively in doubling down.
A pair of 4s should not be split either, as a total of 8 is a good number to draw to.
Generally, 2s, 3s, or 7s can be split unless the dealer has an 8, 9, ten-card, or ace.
Finally, 6s should not be split unless the dealer's card is poor (2 through 6).
3. Are there any particular aspects of your visualization to which you would like to bring attention?
What we will see is:
Random variables and Deterministic nodes are printed in ellipses.
Deterministic nodes are defined by their parents and are not assigned prior distributions.
Decision nodes are printed in rectangles.
Decision nodes are places where we can make changes in what happens in the structure of the network.
In this case, do we want to take another card from the dealer (a hit) or remain content with
the cards in hand?
Utility nodes are deterministic nodes with no children that are usually of special interest.
In this case the utility node is the payoff from the game.