GVH EC - Week 3 January 23
Cormac Harten
Included this week:
- Inflation (CPI)
- House Price Index
- Interst Rates: Follow on from week 1
- Wages
- Wage Index vs CPI
- Public vs Private Sector
- Mortgage payment affordability: Sensitivity analysis
Inflation
CPI
Contribution to Inflation
The composition of the 8.2% CPI can be seen below.
House Prices
House Price Index (RPPI)
The national house price inflation for November is 8.6%. This represents a -1.1 change from October which was 9.7%.
Prices: 12 Month Rolling Average
12 Month Variation
The latest values for these can be seen in the scroll box below. Also included is the lagged value, the rolling average for the 12 month period prior. The variation for each can be seen in the right most column.
| Eircode.Output | Constituency | Dwelling.Status | year_month | value | lag12 | Diffpc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A41: Ballyboughal | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 420,000.00 | 523,316.00 | -19.74 |
| A41: Ballyboughal | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 740,714.00 | 541,542.00 | 36.78 |
| A42: Garristown | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 405,475.00 | NA | NA |
| A42: Garristown | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 444,000.00 | 375,883.00 | 18.12 |
| A45: Oldtown | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | NA | 597,169.00 | NA |
| A45: Oldtown | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 526,833.00 | 334,571.00 | 57.47 |
| A63: Greystones | Wicklow | New | 2022 November | 566,179.00 | 571,270.00 | -0.89 |
| A63: Greystones | Wicklow | Existing | 2022 November | 587,705.00 | 486,893.00 | 20.71 |
| A67: Wicklow | Wicklow | New | 2022 November | 354,900.00 | 363,582.00 | -2.39 |
| A67: Wicklow | Wicklow | Existing | 2022 November | 400,222.00 | 365,899.00 | 9.38 |
| A75: Castleblaney | Cavan-Monaghan | New | 2022 November | 90,800.00 | 236,708.00 | -61.64 |
| A75: Castleblaney | Cavan-Monaghan | Existing | 2022 November | 186,025.00 | 175,858.00 | 5.78 |
| A81: Carrickmacross | Cavan-Monaghan | New | 2022 November | 267,290.00 | 151,475.00 | 76.46 |
| A81: Carrickmacross | Cavan-Monaghan | Existing | 2022 November | 215,057.00 | 213,980.00 | 0.50 |
| A82: Kells | Meath East | New | 2022 November | 287,523.00 | 244,759.00 | 17.47 |
| A82: Kells | Meath East | Existing | 2022 November | 226,265.00 | 211,730.00 | 6.86 |
| A83: Enfield | Meath West | New | 2022 November | 328,192.00 | 331,501.00 | -1.00 |
| A83: Enfield | Meath West | Existing | 2022 November | 339,358.00 | 293,897.00 | 15.47 |
| A84: Ashbourne | Meath East | New | 2022 November | 429,708.00 | 505,169.00 | -14.94 |
| A84: Ashbourne | Meath East | Existing | 2022 November | 324,741.00 | 314,249.00 | 3.34 |
| A85: Dunshaughlin | Meath East | New | 2022 November | 396,278.00 | 348,415.00 | 13.74 |
| A85: Dunshaughlin | Meath East | Existing | 2022 November | 414,208.00 | 395,448.00 | 4.74 |
| A86: Dunboyne | Meath East | New | 2022 November | 417,313.00 | 392,028.00 | 6.45 |
| A86: Dunboyne | Meath East | Existing | 2022 November | 424,843.00 | 385,765.00 | 10.13 |
| A91: Dundalk | Louth | New | 2022 November | 295,138.00 | 288,218.00 | 2.40 |
| A91: Dundalk | Louth | Existing | 2022 November | 257,424.00 | 234,925.00 | 9.58 |
| A92: Drogheda | Louth | New | 2022 November | 319,644.00 | 313,710.00 | 1.89 |
| A92: Drogheda | Louth | Existing | 2022 November | 276,326.00 | 249,826.00 | 10.61 |
| A94: Blackrock | Dun Laoghaire | New | 2022 November | 1,118,639.00 | 1,009,585.00 | 10.80 |
| A94: Blackrock | Dun Laoghaire | Existing | 2022 November | 805,746.00 | 758,961.00 | 6.16 |
| A96: Glenageary | Dun Laoghaire | New | 2022 November | 788,535.00 | 837,125.00 | -5.80 |
| A96: Glenageary | Dun Laoghaire | Existing | 2022 November | 856,023.00 | 806,210.00 | 6.18 |
| A98: Bray | Wicklow | New | 2022 November | 568,927.00 | 656,750.00 | -13.37 |
| A98: Bray | Wicklow | Existing | 2022 November | 512,768.00 | 471,018.00 | 8.86 |
| C15: Navan | Meath West | New | 2022 November | 359,326.00 | 374,102.00 | -3.95 |
| C15: Navan | Meath West | Existing | 2022 November | 295,058.00 | 272,626.00 | 8.23 |
| D01: Dublin 1 | Dublin Central | New | 2022 November | 357,525.00 | 669,650.00 | -46.61 |
| D01: Dublin 1 | Dublin Central | Existing | 2022 November | 323,137.00 | 320,360.00 | 0.87 |
| D02: Dublin 2 | Dublin Bay South | New | 2022 November | 809,892.00 | 875,035.00 | -7.44 |
| D02: Dublin 2 | Dublin Bay South | Existing | 2022 November | 593,002.00 | 462,599.00 | 28.19 |
| D03: Dublin 3 | Dublin Bay North | New | 2022 November | 648,916.00 | 724,823.00 | -10.47 |
| D03: Dublin 3 | Dublin Bay North | Existing | 2022 November | 559,861.00 | 508,260.00 | 10.15 |
| D04: Dublin 4 | Dublin Bay South | New | 2022 November | 1,481,038.00 | 1,397,611.00 | 5.97 |
| D04: Dublin 4 | Dublin Bay South | Existing | 2022 November | 861,793.00 | 804,704.00 | 7.09 |
| D05: Dublin 5 | Dublin Bay North | New | 2022 November | 605,625.00 | 648,336.00 | -6.59 |
| D05: Dublin 5 | Dublin Bay North | Existing | 2022 November | 476,161.00 | 439,380.00 | 8.37 |
| D06: Dublin 6 | Dublin Bay South | New | 2022 November | 1,349,412.00 | 926,589.00 | 45.63 |
| D06: Dublin 6 | Dublin Bay South | Existing | 2022 November | 845,554.00 | 813,850.00 | 3.90 |
| D07: Dublin 7 | Dublin West | New | 2022 November | 522,100.00 | 625,000.00 | -16.46 |
| D07: Dublin 7 | Dublin West | Existing | 2022 November | 418,726.00 | 394,451.00 | 6.15 |
| D08: Dublin 8 | Dublin South Central | New | 2022 November | 614,353.00 | 723,106.00 | -15.04 |
| D08: Dublin 8 | Dublin South Central | Existing | 2022 November | 397,287.00 | 383,717.00 | 3.54 |
| D09: Dublin 9 | Dublin North-West | New | 2022 November | 744,283.00 | 616,072.00 | 20.81 |
| D09: Dublin 9 | Dublin North-West | Existing | 2022 November | 467,520.00 | 447,393.00 | 4.50 |
| D10: Dublin 10 | Dublin South Central | New | 2022 November | NA | NA | NA |
| D10: Dublin 10 | Dublin South Central | Existing | 2022 November | 287,042.00 | 254,040.00 | 12.99 |
| D11: Dublin 11 | Dublin West | New | 2022 November | 321,241.00 | 274,770.00 | 16.91 |
| D11: Dublin 11 | Dublin West | Existing | 2022 November | 326,683.00 | 319,004.00 | 2.41 |
| D12: Dublin 12 | Dublin South Central | New | 2022 November | 782,993.00 | 520,000.00 | 50.58 |
| D12: Dublin 12 | Dublin South Central | Existing | 2022 November | 402,698.00 | 366,213.00 | 9.96 |
| D13: Dublin 13 | Dublin Bay North | New | 2022 November | 571,484.00 | 464,306.00 | 23.08 |
| D13: Dublin 13 | Dublin Bay North | Existing | 2022 November | 565,391.00 | 484,988.00 | 16.58 |
| D14: Dublin 14 | Dublin Bay South | New | 2022 November | 760,972.00 | 790,788.00 | -3.77 |
| D14: Dublin 14 | Dublin Bay South | Existing | 2022 November | 695,972.00 | 650,433.00 | 7.00 |
| D15: Dublin 15 | Dublin West | New | 2022 November | 436,696.00 | 419,759.00 | 4.03 |
| D15: Dublin 15 | Dublin West | Existing | 2022 November | 410,485.00 | 385,781.00 | 6.40 |
| D16: Dublin 16 | Dublin South-West | New | 2022 November | 722,971.00 | 586,796.00 | 23.21 |
| D16: Dublin 16 | Dublin South-West | Existing | 2022 November | 587,407.00 | 525,083.00 | 11.87 |
| D17: Dublin 17 | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 456,251.00 | 462,034.00 | -1.25 |
| D17: Dublin 17 | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 300,546.00 | 272,471.00 | 10.30 |
| D18: Dublin 18 | Dublin Rathdown | New | 2022 November | 659,488.00 | 634,317.00 | 3.97 |
| D18: Dublin 18 | Dublin Rathdown | Existing | 2022 November | 605,536.00 | 589,982.00 | 2.64 |
| D20: Dublin 20 | Dublin South Central | New | 2022 November | 516,697.00 | 609,724.00 | -15.26 |
| D20: Dublin 20 | Dublin South Central | Existing | 2022 November | 390,657.00 | 356,266.00 | 9.65 |
| D22: Dublin 22 | Dublin South Central | New | 2022 November | 390,369.00 | 375,178.00 | 4.05 |
| D22: Dublin 22 | Dublin South Central | Existing | 2022 November | 313,650.00 | 291,401.00 | 7.64 |
| D24: Dublin 24 | Dublin South-West | New | 2022 November | 405,828.00 | 415,728.00 | -2.38 |
| D24: Dublin 24 | Dublin South-West | Existing | 2022 November | 351,591.00 | 317,694.00 | 10.67 |
| D6W: Dublin 6W | Dublin South Central | New | 2022 November | 743,965.00 | 604,746.00 | 23.02 |
| D6W: Dublin 6W | Dublin South Central | Existing | 2022 November | 645,769.00 | 632,025.00 | 2.17 |
| E21: Cahir | Tipperary | New | 2022 November | 253,269.00 | NA | NA |
| E21: Cahir | Tipperary | Existing | 2022 November | 186,026.00 | 170,416.00 | 9.16 |
| E25: Cashel | Tipperary | New | 2022 November | 192,950.00 | 234,879.00 | -17.85 |
| E25: Cashel | Tipperary | Existing | 2022 November | 194,069.00 | 167,450.00 | 15.90 |
| E32: Carrick-on-Suir | Tipperary | New | 2022 November | NA | 281,158.00 | NA |
| E32: Carrick-on-Suir | Tipperary | Existing | 2022 November | 192,953.00 | 177,776.00 | 8.54 |
| E34: Tipperary | Tipperary | New | 2022 November | 102,150.00 | 266,725.00 | -61.70 |
| E34: Tipperary | Tipperary | Existing | 2022 November | 166,810.00 | 151,415.00 | 10.17 |
| E41: Thurles | Tipperary | New | 2022 November | 221,325.00 | 195,220.00 | 13.37 |
| E41: Thurles | Tipperary | Existing | 2022 November | 190,565.00 | 171,434.00 | 11.16 |
| E45: Nenagh | Tipperary | New | 2022 November | 259,039.00 | 212,195.00 | 22.08 |
| E45: Nenagh | Tipperary | Existing | 2022 November | 232,350.00 | 197,692.00 | 17.53 |
| E53: Roscrea | Tipperary | New | 2022 November | 164,000.00 | 193,418.00 | -15.21 |
| E53: Roscrea | Tipperary | Existing | 2022 November | 171,563.00 | 172,848.00 | -0.74 |
| E91: Clonmel | Tipperary | New | 2022 November | 297,950.00 | 290,027.00 | 2.73 |
| E91: Clonmel | Tipperary | Existing | 2022 November | 217,868.00 | 208,009.00 | 4.74 |
| F12: Claremorris | Mayo | New | 2022 November | 213,688.00 | 165,054.00 | 29.47 |
| F12: Claremorris | Mayo | Existing | 2022 November | 174,482.00 | 149,302.00 | 16.87 |
| F23: Castlebar | Mayo | New | 2022 November | 281,576.00 | 240,888.00 | 16.89 |
| F23: Castlebar | Mayo | Existing | 2022 November | 201,221.00 | 170,068.00 | 18.32 |
| F26: Ballina | Mayo | New | 2022 November | 263,974.00 | 221,617.00 | 19.11 |
| F26: Ballina | Mayo | Existing | 2022 November | 178,886.00 | 148,284.00 | 20.64 |
| F28: Westport | Mayo | New | 2022 November | 328,881.00 | 221,251.00 | 48.65 |
| F28: Westport | Mayo | Existing | 2022 November | 264,947.00 | 232,238.00 | 14.08 |
| F31: Ballinrobe | Mayo | New | 2022 November | 363,200.00 | 189,500.00 | 91.66 |
| F31: Ballinrobe | Mayo | Existing | 2022 November | 177,847.00 | 148,741.00 | 19.57 |
| F35: Ballyhaunis | Mayo | New | 2022 November | 147,520.00 | 166,562.00 | -11.43 |
| F35: Ballyhaunis | Mayo | Existing | 2022 November | 131,321.00 | 119,000.00 | 10.35 |
| F42: Roscommon | Roscommon-Galway | New | 2022 November | 258,929.00 | 275,971.00 | -6.18 |
| F42: Roscommon | Roscommon-Galway | Existing | 2022 November | 184,687.00 | 175,938.00 | 4.97 |
| F45: Castlerea | Roscommon-Galway | New | 2022 November | 183,952.00 | 139,826.00 | 31.56 |
| F45: Castlerea | Roscommon-Galway | Existing | 2022 November | 135,770.00 | 110,738.00 | 22.60 |
| F52: Boyle | Sligo-Leitrim | New | 2022 November | 226,552.00 | 93,070.00 | 143.42 |
| F52: Boyle | Sligo-Leitrim | Existing | 2022 November | 154,956.00 | 143,103.00 | 8.28 |
| F56: Ballymote | Sligo-Leitrim | New | 2022 November | 189,801.00 | 151,227.00 | 25.51 |
| F56: Ballymote | Sligo-Leitrim | Existing | 2022 November | 152,686.00 | 118,828.00 | 28.49 |
| F91: Sligo | Sligo-Leitrim | New | 2022 November | 283,859.00 | 196,280.00 | 44.62 |
| F91: Sligo | Sligo-Leitrim | Existing | 2022 November | 211,773.00 | 187,236.00 | 13.10 |
| F92: Letterkenny | Donegal | New | 2022 November | 274,374.00 | 238,477.00 | 15.05 |
| F92: Letterkenny | Donegal | Existing | 2022 November | 186,316.00 | 159,166.00 | 17.06 |
| F93: Lifford | Donegal | New | 2022 November | 304,010.00 | 184,843.00 | 64.47 |
| F93: Lifford | Donegal | Existing | 2022 November | 159,410.00 | 136,037.00 | 17.18 |
| F94: Donegal | Donegal | New | 2022 November | 248,443.00 | 191,032.00 | 30.05 |
| F94: Donegal | Donegal | Existing | 2022 November | 175,033.00 | 149,541.00 | 17.05 |
| H12: Cavan | Cavan-Monaghan | New | 2022 November | 248,413.00 | 215,491.00 | 15.28 |
| H12: Cavan | Cavan-Monaghan | Existing | 2022 November | 188,079.00 | 161,584.00 | 16.40 |
| H14: Belturbet | Cavan-Monaghan | New | 2022 November | 241,500.00 | 207,705.00 | 16.27 |
| H14: Belturbet | Cavan-Monaghan | Existing | 2022 November | 153,314.00 | 123,462.00 | 24.18 |
| H16: Cootehill | Cavan-Monaghan | New | 2022 November | 235,183.00 | NA | NA |
| H16: Cootehill | Cavan-Monaghan | Existing | 2022 November | 145,109.00 | 147,403.00 | -1.56 |
| H18: Monaghan | Cavan-Monaghan | New | 2022 November | 291,165.00 | 386,001.00 | -24.57 |
| H18: Monaghan | Cavan-Monaghan | Existing | 2022 November | 209,533.00 | 173,736.00 | 20.60 |
| H23: Clones | Cavan-Monaghan | New | 2022 November | NA | NA | NA |
| H23: Clones | Cavan-Monaghan | Existing | 2022 November | 132,130.00 | 101,105.00 | 30.69 |
| H53: Ballinasloe | Roscommon-Galway | New | 2022 November | 229,440.00 | 220,356.00 | 4.12 |
| H53: Ballinasloe | Roscommon-Galway | Existing | 2022 November | 203,412.00 | 166,404.00 | 22.24 |
| H54: Tuam | Galway East | New | 2022 November | 236,789.00 | 187,590.00 | 26.23 |
| H54: Tuam | Galway East | Existing | 2022 November | 205,999.00 | 184,253.00 | 11.80 |
| H62: Loughrea | Galway East | New | 2022 November | 302,701.00 | 265,604.00 | 13.97 |
| H62: Loughrea | Galway East | Existing | 2022 November | 228,698.00 | 206,582.00 | 10.71 |
| H65: Athenry | Galway East | New | 2022 November | 338,615.00 | 282,574.00 | 19.83 |
| H65: Athenry | Galway East | Existing | 2022 November | 306,787.00 | 261,829.00 | 17.17 |
| H71: Clifden | Galway West | New | 2022 November | NA | 366,415.00 | NA |
| H71: Clifden | Galway West | Existing | 2022 November | 306,489.00 | 210,105.00 | 45.87 |
| H91: Galway | Galway West | New | 2022 November | 407,263.00 | 397,989.00 | 2.33 |
| H91: Galway | Galway West | Existing | 2022 November | 333,090.00 | 300,227.00 | 10.95 |
| K32: Balbriggan | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 365,088.00 | 328,198.00 | 11.24 |
| K32: Balbriggan | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 293,610.00 | 254,942.00 | 15.17 |
| K34: Skerries | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 343,908.00 | 391,612.00 | -12.18 |
| K34: Skerries | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 496,115.00 | 492,020.00 | 0.83 |
| K36: Malahide | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 708,077.00 | 570,344.00 | 24.15 |
| K36: Malahide | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 627,014.00 | 591,897.00 | 5.93 |
| K45: Lusk | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 423,364.00 | 382,294.00 | 10.74 |
| K45: Lusk | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 387,300.00 | 318,700.00 | 21.52 |
| K56: Rush | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 380,100.00 | 571,309.00 | -33.47 |
| K56: Rush | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 360,058.00 | 351,736.00 | 2.37 |
| K67: Swords | Dublin Fingal | New | 2022 November | 453,795.00 | 415,827.00 | 9.13 |
| K67: Swords | Dublin Fingal | Existing | 2022 November | 369,681.00 | 346,258.00 | 6.76 |
| K78: Lucan | Dublin Mid-West | New | 2022 November | 460,022.00 | 468,033.00 | -1.71 |
| K78: Lucan | Dublin Mid-West | Existing | 2022 November | 382,630.00 | 363,582.00 | 5.24 |
| N37: Athlone | Longford-Westmeath | New | 2022 November | 319,386.00 | 305,011.00 | 4.71 |
| N37: Athlone | Longford-Westmeath | Existing | 2022 November | 236,208.00 | 205,901.00 | 14.72 |
| N39: Longford | Longford-Westmeath | New | 2022 November | 205,864.00 | 234,496.00 | -12.21 |
| N39: Longford | Longford-Westmeath | Existing | 2022 November | 165,291.00 | 140,858.00 | 17.35 |
| N41: Carrick-on-Shannon | Sligo-Leitrim | New | 2022 November | 206,431.00 | 155,559.00 | 32.70 |
| N41: Carrick-on-Shannon | Sligo-Leitrim | Existing | 2022 November | 169,243.00 | 148,355.00 | 14.08 |
| N91: Mullingar | Longford-Westmeath | New | 2022 November | 366,458.00 | 319,046.00 | 14.86 |
| N91: Mullingar | Longford-Westmeath | Existing | 2022 November | 239,747.00 | 210,540.00 | 13.87 |
| P12: Macroom | Cork North-West | New | 2022 November | 308,241.00 | 284,252.00 | 8.44 |
| P12: Macroom | Cork North-West | Existing | 2022 November | 235,794.00 | 214,856.00 | 9.75 |
| P14: Crookstown | Cork North-West | New | 2022 November | 377,633.00 | 422,798.00 | -10.68 |
| P14: Crookstown | Cork North-West | Existing | 2022 November | 323,438.00 | 330,038.00 | -2.00 |
| P17: Kinsale | Cork South-West | New | 2022 November | 403,190.00 | 397,241.00 | 1.50 |
| P17: Kinsale | Cork South-West | Existing | 2022 November | 555,600.00 | 443,374.00 | 25.31 |
| P24: Cobh | Cork East | New | 2022 November | 316,850.00 | 277,851.00 | 14.04 |
| P24: Cobh | Cork East | Existing | 2022 November | 302,293.00 | 248,687.00 | 21.56 |
| P25: Midleton | Cork East | New | 2022 November | 362,896.00 | 354,078.00 | 2.49 |
| P25: Midleton | Cork East | Existing | 2022 November | 284,394.00 | 270,203.00 | 5.25 |
| P31: Ballincollig | Cork North-West | New | 2022 November | 403,778.00 | 382,664.00 | 5.52 |
| P31: Ballincollig | Cork North-West | Existing | 2022 November | 379,847.00 | 350,515.00 | 8.37 |
| P32: Rylane | Cork North-West | New | 2022 November | 415,750.00 | 325,000.00 | 27.92 |
| P32: Rylane | Cork North-West | Existing | 2022 November | 323,300.00 | 195,636.00 | 65.26 |
| P36: Youghal | Cork East | New | 2022 November | 517,839.00 | 337,989.00 | 53.21 |
| P36: Youghal | Cork East | Existing | 2022 November | 242,292.00 | 225,065.00 | 7.65 |
| P43: Carrigaline | Cork South-Central | New | 2022 November | 359,847.00 | 352,962.00 | 1.95 |
| P43: Carrigaline | Cork South-Central | Existing | 2022 November | 391,518.00 | 317,619.00 | 23.27 |
| P47: Dunmanway | Cork South-West | New | 2022 November | 333,281.00 | 391,325.00 | -14.83 |
| P47: Dunmanway | Cork South-West | Existing | 2022 November | 224,500.00 | 185,720.00 | 20.88 |
| P51: Mallow | Cork East | New | 2022 November | 293,504.00 | 272,050.00 | 7.89 |
| P51: Mallow | Cork East | Existing | 2022 November | 211,991.00 | 176,045.00 | 20.42 |
| P56: Charleville | Cork North-West | New | 2022 November | NA | 125,533.00 | NA |
| P56: Charleville | Cork North-West | Existing | 2022 November | 195,801.00 | 145,299.00 | 34.76 |
| P61: Fermoy | Cork East | New | 2022 November | 391,437.00 | 321,385.00 | 21.80 |
| P61: Fermoy | Cork East | Existing | 2022 November | 274,695.00 | 207,577.00 | 32.33 |
| P67: Mitchelstown | Cork East | New | 2022 November | 280,000.00 | 307,759.00 | -9.02 |
| P67: Mitchelstown | Cork East | Existing | 2022 November | 238,036.00 | 196,356.00 | 21.23 |
| P72: Bandon | Cork South-West | New | 2022 November | 313,876.00 | 402,424.00 | -22.00 |
| P72: Bandon | Cork South-West | Existing | 2022 November | 277,487.00 | 242,735.00 | 14.32 |
| P75: Bantry | Cork South-West | New | 2022 November | 272,924.00 | 252,571.00 | 8.06 |
| P75: Bantry | Cork South-West | Existing | 2022 November | 243,384.00 | 202,833.00 | 19.99 |
| P81: Skibbereen | Cork South-West | New | 2022 November | 233,007.00 | 328,478.00 | -29.06 |
| P81: Skibbereen | Cork South-West | Existing | 2022 November | 334,766.00 | 289,749.00 | 15.54 |
| P85: Clonakilty | Cork South-West | New | 2022 November | 357,221.00 | 351,805.00 | 1.54 |
| P85: Clonakilty | Cork South-West | Existing | 2022 November | 288,071.00 | 291,104.00 | -1.04 |
| R14: Athy | Kildare South | New | 2022 November | 297,722.00 | NA | NA |
| R14: Athy | Kildare South | Existing | 2022 November | 221,500.00 | 209,613.00 | 5.67 |
| R21: Mhuine Bheag | Carlow-Kilkenny | New | 2022 November | NA | 312,125.00 | NA |
| R21: Mhuine Bheag | Carlow-Kilkenny | Existing | 2022 November | 264,480.00 | 196,287.00 | 34.74 |
| R32: Portlaoise | Laois-Offaly | New | 2022 November | 306,441.00 | 248,245.00 | 23.44 |
| R32: Portlaoise | Laois-Offaly | Existing | 2022 November | 226,002.00 | 202,701.00 | 11.50 |
| R35: Tullamore | Laois-Offaly | New | 2022 November | 285,858.00 | 278,585.00 | 2.61 |
| R35: Tullamore | Laois-Offaly | Existing | 2022 November | 233,713.00 | 206,054.00 | 13.42 |
| R42: Birr | Laois-Offaly | New | 2022 November | 290,549.00 | 253,664.00 | 14.54 |
| R42: Birr | Laois-Offaly | Existing | 2022 November | 188,341.00 | 168,480.00 | 11.79 |
| R45: Edenderry | Laois-Offaly | New | 2022 November | 276,264.00 | 222,600.00 | 24.11 |
| R45: Edenderry | Laois-Offaly | Existing | 2022 November | 221,060.00 | 189,611.00 | 16.59 |
| R51: Kildare | Kildare South | New | 2022 November | 330,528.00 | 296,132.00 | 11.62 |
| R51: Kildare | Kildare South | Existing | 2022 November | 298,684.00 | 258,733.00 | 15.44 |
| R56: Curragh | Kildare South | New | 2022 November | 414,914.00 | 380,672.00 | 9.00 |
| R56: Curragh | Kildare South | Existing | 2022 November | 338,625.00 | 314,887.00 | 7.54 |
| R93: Carlow | Carlow-Kilkenny | New | 2022 November | 269,039.00 | 246,521.00 | 9.13 |
| R93: Carlow | Carlow-Kilkenny | Existing | 2022 November | 229,566.00 | 214,404.00 | 7.07 |
| R95: Kilkenny | Carlow-Kilkenny | New | 2022 November | 405,795.00 | 357,752.00 | 13.43 |
| R95: Kilkenny | Carlow-Kilkenny | Existing | 2022 November | 282,276.00 | 253,789.00 | 11.22 |
| T12: Cork Southside | Cork North-Central | New | 2022 November | 461,840.00 | 421,467.00 | 9.58 |
| T12: Cork Southside | Cork North-Central | Existing | 2022 November | 370,806.00 | 329,728.00 | 12.46 |
| T23: Cork Northside | Cork North-Central | New | 2022 November | 380,239.00 | 429,443.00 | -11.46 |
| T23: Cork Northside | Cork North-Central | Existing | 2022 November | 270,150.00 | 240,241.00 | 12.45 |
| T34: Carrignavar | Cork East | New | 2022 November | 332,495.00 | NA | NA |
| T34: Carrignavar | Cork East | Existing | 2022 November | 415,357.00 | 314,208.00 | 32.19 |
| T45: Glanmire | Cork North-Central | New | 2022 November | 361,342.00 | 338,437.00 | 6.77 |
| T45: Glanmire | Cork North-Central | Existing | 2022 November | 356,851.00 | 330,646.00 | 7.93 |
| T56: Watergrasshill | Cork North-Central | New | 2022 November | 335,968.00 | 317,520.00 | 5.81 |
| T56: Watergrasshill | Cork North-Central | Existing | 2022 November | 312,998.00 | 314,897.00 | -0.60 |
| V14: Shannon | Clare | New | 2022 November | 136,200.00 | 234,888.00 | -42.01 |
| V14: Shannon | Clare | Existing | 2022 November | 195,343.00 | 184,957.00 | 5.62 |
| V15: Kilrush | Clare | New | 2022 November | 180,491.00 | 199,129.00 | -9.36 |
| V15: Kilrush | Clare | Existing | 2022 November | 184,111.00 | 156,507.00 | 17.64 |
| V23: Caherciveen | Kerry | New | 2022 November | 251,618.00 | 227,446.00 | 10.63 |
| V23: Caherciveen | Kerry | Existing | 2022 November | 247,839.00 | 199,942.00 | 23.96 |
| V31: Listowel | Kerry | New | 2022 November | 218,726.00 | 232,675.00 | -6.00 |
| V31: Listowel | Kerry | Existing | 2022 November | 195,306.00 | 177,513.00 | 10.02 |
| V35: Kilmallock | Limerick County | New | 2022 November | 312,648.00 | 333,173.00 | -6.16 |
| V35: Kilmallock | Limerick County | Existing | 2022 November | 183,959.00 | 180,850.00 | 1.72 |
| V42: Newcastle West | Limerick County | New | 2022 November | 181,209.00 | 186,316.00 | -2.74 |
| V42: Newcastle West | Limerick County | Existing | 2022 November | 193,790.00 | 170,615.00 | 13.58 |
| V92: Tralee | Kerry | New | 2022 November | 278,367.00 | 330,016.00 | -15.65 |
| V92: Tralee | Kerry | Existing | 2022 November | 223,998.00 | 200,320.00 | 11.82 |
| V93: Killarney | Kerry | New | 2022 November | 317,383.00 | 325,707.00 | -2.56 |
| V93: Killarney | Kerry | Existing | 2022 November | 287,963.00 | 238,122.00 | 20.93 |
| V94: Limerick | Limerick City | New | 2022 November | 372,726.00 | 335,639.00 | 11.05 |
| V94: Limerick | Limerick City | Existing | 2022 November | 255,772.00 | 237,066.00 | 7.89 |
| V95: Ennis | Clare | New | 2022 November | 313,832.00 | 304,826.00 | 2.95 |
| V95: Ennis | Clare | Existing | 2022 November | 253,505.00 | 216,905.00 | 16.87 |
| W12: Newbridge | Kildare South | New | 2022 November | 397,827.00 | 346,770.00 | 14.72 |
| W12: Newbridge | Kildare South | Existing | 2022 November | 324,114.00 | 291,200.00 | 11.30 |
| W23: Celbridge | Kildare North | New | 2022 November | 450,809.00 | 402,059.00 | 12.13 |
| W23: Celbridge | Kildare North | Existing | 2022 November | 409,177.00 | 376,173.00 | 8.77 |
| W34: Monasterevin | Kildare South | New | 2022 November | 326,285.00 | 303,026.00 | 7.68 |
| W34: Monasterevin | Kildare South | Existing | 2022 November | 243,538.00 | 227,914.00 | 6.86 |
| W91: Naas | Kildare North | New | 2022 November | 402,414.00 | 367,491.00 | 9.50 |
| W91: Naas | Kildare North | Existing | 2022 November | 365,088.00 | 339,833.00 | 7.43 |
| X35: Dungarvan | Waterford | New | 2022 November | 271,475.00 | 294,456.00 | -7.80 |
| X35: Dungarvan | Waterford | Existing | 2022 November | 300,192.00 | 241,693.00 | 24.20 |
| X42: Kilmacthomas | Waterford | New | 2022 November | 235,000.00 | 324,651.00 | -27.61 |
| X42: Kilmacthomas | Waterford | Existing | 2022 November | 225,483.00 | 222,909.00 | 1.15 |
| X91: Waterford | Waterford | New | 2022 November | 340,686.00 | 303,384.00 | 12.30 |
| X91: Waterford | Waterford | Existing | 2022 November | 250,567.00 | 217,399.00 | 15.26 |
| Y14: Arklow | Wicklow | New | 2022 November | 527,422.00 | 449,109.00 | 17.44 |
| Y14: Arklow | Wicklow | Existing | 2022 November | 271,786.00 | 246,917.00 | 10.07 |
| Y21: Enniscorthy | Wexford | New | 2022 November | 265,952.00 | 262,119.00 | 1.46 |
| Y21: Enniscorthy | Wexford | Existing | 2022 November | 230,352.00 | 216,163.00 | 6.56 |
| Y25: Gorey | Wexford | New | 2022 November | 308,182.00 | 286,523.00 | 7.56 |
| Y25: Gorey | Wexford | Existing | 2022 November | 292,524.00 | 245,785.00 | 19.02 |
| Y34: New Ross | Wexford | New | 2022 November | 196,137.00 | 232,227.00 | -15.54 |
| Y34: New Ross | Wexford | Existing | 2022 November | 207,792.00 | 192,568.00 | 7.91 |
| Y35: Wexford | Wexford | New | 2022 November | 291,514.00 | 291,751.00 | -0.08 |
| Y35: Wexford | Wexford | Existing | 2022 November | 246,309.00 | 216,161.00 | 13.95 |
The maps are the aggregate values of each Eircode Area rolled up to Constituency level. The variation displayed on the maps represent the difference between the average value of this aggregation and its 12 month lag. - Not an average of the variation in the scroll box above.
New home prices will naturally be a noisier series.
Lending Data
Loans
Rates
We have been working of the ECB statistics for interest rate statistics, comparing them with other eurozone countries. Recall Week 1: “Bank Interest Rates”. For this I used the series:
- Bank interest rates - loans to households for house purchase APRC (new business) - Ireland
The CSO report on statistics which include variable rates and fixed rates of up to one year, the ECB equivalent is:
- “Bank interest rates - loans to households for house purchase with a floating rate and an IRF period of up to one year (new business)”
Historically the two have been aligned but have deviated in the last 18 months or so. The latter is more representative of the offerings that our purchasers will choose from in the market - today. The data below is for November, 3.69 was likely the higher range the buyer would face at that time where as 2.69 would certainly be at the low end. Consider the advertised variable rate for AIB on a LTV greater than 80% is 3.15% today.
The sensitivity of the Bank Interest Rates to the Central Banks hikes are similar for this series compared to the former. The notable difference is that the headline rates vary with the combination of variable & fixed (up to one year) rate loans. Irish rates still lag other countries in rate of change. However, Ireland is now 20bps ahead of Germany, rather than one percentage point behind.
SD moves on compared with the prior series are similar. DE: 4 SD, FR: 2.13 SD, IE: 0.46 SD, IT: 2.94
Wages
Wage Index
Real term pay cuts - Inflation outpaces wage growth
Naturally there is a large variation in earnings both between and within sectors and industries. This section will give some insight into this variation and give a view to how wage growth compares to inflation and its impact on housing affordability.
Public Sector Pay
The Garda Siochana earn notably more than the other civil servants. I can only assume that this is primarily due to overtime, given the seasonality of the series. As the weekly wages represented here would yield a gross annual salary of 70k, which is 20k above the top grade on the pay scale. - Naturally there is also supplements for different functions such as detective & undercover work etc.
NACE Sector Pay
Mortgage Affordability
I will take a case approach for the sensitivity of Public Sector workers to increases in mortgage rates, for the NACE Sectors I will try to give an indication of the wage distribution. The latter is limited by the availability of data.
Finally I will conclude with a generalisation for a couple earning 100,000.
Public Sector
To generate a sensitivity analysis for mortgage affordability of Public Sector workers I assume that civil servats are a married couple, and taxed as such. For simplicity this means that they are taxed at the higher band of 40% at 80,0000 and 20% based on the average weekly earnings in the previous section.
Interpret the below grid as follows. The top left panel is the proportional net earnings spent on financing a mortgage based various rates for the average Education worker and Garda. The white line shows the maximum mortgage at 4 times income that this couple could earn, so (exceptions aside) the left hand side of this line is the probable scenarios. The midpoint for the colour scale is set to 30%, the level which I assume the couple see financial pressure for servicing the mortgage. The top left and the bottom right are the same.
Consider a mortgage of 400k, which would amount to a house price of 440k for FTBs. An education worker approaches 30% income at an interest rate of 3.75% if paired with another education worker. If paired with a Garda they will reach this level at 4.5%.
I acknowledge that the below is busy, to take anything from it view the white line for each case (pair) and see at what rate does the tile turn black, approaching redish black. Given that the buyers tend to borrow as much as they can1, this is the level that the pair will feel the financial pressure.
NACE Sectors
The average earnings data can be seen below. A true distribution of earnings cannot be generated from the data due to the aggregation mention previously. I will weight the average earnings with number of employees in that industry to give some indication of the spread.
Darker shades of green indicate that the sector has a greater number of employees. A weight will be required to give a representative view of average earnings so that IT workers, for example, does not skew the outlook for affordability given there are more Health workers at lower average earnings. - One failing of the dataset used above is that it does not disaggregate between type of employee at NACE Sectors. Data for managers, clerical and manual workers are given for higher aggregations
| Yearly Wage 1 | Yearly Wage 2 | Rate | Mortgage | 30 Year Repayments | Net Weekly | Net.Cost | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20000 | 50000 | 0.0475 | 250000 | 1304.118 | 1076.923 | 0.3027418 | 280 k |
| 20000 | 60000 | 0.0450 | 300000 | 1520.056 | 1230.769 | 0.3087614 | 320 k |
| 20000 | 70000 | 0.0525 | 300000 | 1656.611 | 1346.154 | 0.3076563 | 360 k |
| 20000 | 70000 | 0.0375 | 350000 | 1620.905 | 1346.154 | 0.3010251 | 360 k |
| 20000 | 80000 | 0.0450 | 350000 | 1773.399 | 1461.538 | 0.3033445 | 400 k |
| 20000 | 80000 | 0.0350 | 400000 | 1796.179 | 1461.538 | 0.3072411 | 400 k |
| 30000 | 40000 | 0.0475 | 250000 | 1304.118 | 1076.923 | 0.3027418 | 280 k |
| 30000 | 50000 | 0.0450 | 300000 | 1520.056 | 1230.769 | 0.3087614 | 320 k |
| 30000 | 60000 | 0.0525 | 300000 | 1656.611 | 1346.154 | 0.3076563 | 360 k |
| 30000 | 60000 | 0.0375 | 350000 | 1620.905 | 1346.154 | 0.3010251 | 360 k |
| 30000 | 70000 | 0.0450 | 350000 | 1773.399 | 1461.538 | 0.3033445 | 400 k |
| 30000 | 70000 | 0.0350 | 400000 | 1796.179 | 1461.538 | 0.3072411 | 400 k |
| 30000 | 80000 | 0.0525 | 350000 | 1932.713 | 1576.923 | 0.3064057 | 440 k |
| 30000 | 80000 | 0.0400 | 400000 | 1909.661 | 1576.923 | 0.3027512 | 440 k |
| 40000 | 30000 | 0.0475 | 250000 | 1304.118 | 1076.923 | 0.3027418 | 280 k |
| 40000 | 40000 | 0.0450 | 300000 | 1520.056 | 1230.769 | 0.3087614 | 320 k |
| 40000 | 50000 | 0.0525 | 300000 | 1656.611 | 1346.154 | 0.3076563 | 360 k |
| 40000 | 50000 | 0.0375 | 350000 | 1620.905 | 1346.154 | 0.3010251 | 360 k |
| 40000 | 60000 | 0.0450 | 350000 | 1773.399 | 1461.538 | 0.3033445 | 400 k |
| 40000 | 60000 | 0.0350 | 400000 | 1796.179 | 1461.538 | 0.3072411 | 400 k |
| 40000 | 70000 | 0.0525 | 350000 | 1932.713 | 1576.923 | 0.3064057 | 440 k |
| 40000 | 70000 | 0.0400 | 400000 | 1909.661 | 1576.923 | 0.3027512 | 440 k |
| 40000 | 80000 | 0.0475 | 400000 | 2086.589 | 1692.308 | 0.3082462 | 480 k |
| 40000 | 80000 | 0.0375 | 450000 | 2084.020 | 1692.308 | 0.3078666 | 480 k |
| 50000 | 20000 | 0.0475 | 250000 | 1304.118 | 1076.923 | 0.3027418 | 280 k |
| 50000 | 30000 | 0.0450 | 300000 | 1520.056 | 1230.769 | 0.3087614 | 320 k |
| 50000 | 40000 | 0.0525 | 300000 | 1656.611 | 1346.154 | 0.3076563 | 360 k |
| 50000 | 40000 | 0.0375 | 350000 | 1620.905 | 1346.154 | 0.3010251 | 360 k |
| 50000 | 50000 | 0.0450 | 350000 | 1773.399 | 1461.538 | 0.3033445 | 400 k |
| 50000 | 50000 | 0.0350 | 400000 | 1796.179 | 1461.538 | 0.3072411 | 400 k |
| 50000 | 60000 | 0.0525 | 350000 | 1932.713 | 1576.923 | 0.3064057 | 440 k |
| 50000 | 60000 | 0.0400 | 400000 | 1909.661 | 1576.923 | 0.3027512 | 440 k |
| 50000 | 70000 | 0.0475 | 400000 | 2086.589 | 1692.308 | 0.3082462 | 480 k |
| 50000 | 70000 | 0.0375 | 450000 | 2084.020 | 1692.308 | 0.3078666 | 480 k |
| 50000 | 80000 | 0.0525 | 400000 | 2208.815 | 1807.692 | 0.3054744 | 520 k |
| 50000 | 80000 | 0.0425 | 450000 | 2213.730 | 1807.692 | 0.3061541 | 520 k |
| 50000 | 80000 | 0.0325 | 500000 | 2176.032 | 1807.692 | 0.3009405 | 520 k |
| 60000 | 20000 | 0.0450 | 300000 | 1520.056 | 1230.769 | 0.3087614 | 320 k |
| 60000 | 30000 | 0.0525 | 300000 | 1656.611 | 1346.154 | 0.3076563 | 360 k |
| 60000 | 30000 | 0.0375 | 350000 | 1620.905 | 1346.154 | 0.3010251 | 360 k |
| 60000 | 40000 | 0.0450 | 350000 | 1773.399 | 1461.538 | 0.3033445 | 400 k |
| 60000 | 40000 | 0.0350 | 400000 | 1796.179 | 1461.538 | 0.3072411 | 400 k |
| 60000 | 50000 | 0.0525 | 350000 | 1932.713 | 1576.923 | 0.3064057 | 440 k |
| 60000 | 50000 | 0.0400 | 400000 | 1909.661 | 1576.923 | 0.3027512 | 440 k |
| 60000 | 60000 | 0.0475 | 400000 | 2086.589 | 1692.308 | 0.3082462 | 480 k |
| 60000 | 60000 | 0.0375 | 450000 | 2084.020 | 1692.308 | 0.3078666 | 480 k |
| 60000 | 70000 | 0.0525 | 400000 | 2208.815 | 1807.692 | 0.3054744 | 520 k |
| 60000 | 70000 | 0.0425 | 450000 | 2213.730 | 1807.692 | 0.3061541 | 520 k |
| 60000 | 70000 | 0.0325 | 500000 | 2176.032 | 1807.692 | 0.3009405 | 520 k |
| 60000 | 80000 | 0.0475 | 450000 | 2347.413 | 1923.077 | 0.3051637 | 560 k |
| 60000 | 80000 | 0.0375 | 500000 | 2315.578 | 1923.077 | 0.3010251 | 560 k |
| 70000 | 20000 | 0.0525 | 300000 | 1656.611 | 1346.154 | 0.3076563 | 360 k |
| 70000 | 20000 | 0.0375 | 350000 | 1620.905 | 1346.154 | 0.3010251 | 360 k |
| 70000 | 30000 | 0.0450 | 350000 | 1773.399 | 1461.538 | 0.3033445 | 400 k |
| 70000 | 30000 | 0.0350 | 400000 | 1796.179 | 1461.538 | 0.3072411 | 400 k |
| 70000 | 40000 | 0.0525 | 350000 | 1932.713 | 1576.923 | 0.3064057 | 440 k |
| 70000 | 40000 | 0.0400 | 400000 | 1909.661 | 1576.923 | 0.3027512 | 440 k |
| 70000 | 50000 | 0.0475 | 400000 | 2086.589 | 1692.308 | 0.3082462 | 480 k |
| 70000 | 50000 | 0.0375 | 450000 | 2084.020 | 1692.308 | 0.3078666 | 480 k |
| 70000 | 60000 | 0.0525 | 400000 | 2208.815 | 1807.692 | 0.3054744 | 520 k |
| 70000 | 60000 | 0.0425 | 450000 | 2213.730 | 1807.692 | 0.3061541 | 520 k |
| 70000 | 60000 | 0.0325 | 500000 | 2176.032 | 1807.692 | 0.3009405 | 520 k |
| 70000 | 70000 | 0.0475 | 450000 | 2347.413 | 1923.077 | 0.3051637 | 560 k |
| 70000 | 70000 | 0.0375 | 500000 | 2315.578 | 1923.077 | 0.3010251 | 560 k |
| 70000 | 80000 | 0.0525 | 450000 | 2484.917 | 2038.462 | 0.3047539 | 600 k |
| 70000 | 80000 | 0.0425 | 500000 | 2459.699 | 2038.462 | 0.3016613 | 600 k |
| 80000 | 20000 | 0.0450 | 350000 | 1773.399 | 1461.538 | 0.3033445 | 400 k |
| 80000 | 20000 | 0.0350 | 400000 | 1796.179 | 1461.538 | 0.3072411 | 400 k |
| 80000 | 30000 | 0.0525 | 350000 | 1932.713 | 1576.923 | 0.3064057 | 440 k |
| 80000 | 30000 | 0.0400 | 400000 | 1909.661 | 1576.923 | 0.3027512 | 440 k |
| 80000 | 40000 | 0.0475 | 400000 | 2086.589 | 1692.308 | 0.3082462 | 480 k |
| 80000 | 40000 | 0.0375 | 450000 | 2084.020 | 1692.308 | 0.3078666 | 480 k |
| 80000 | 50000 | 0.0525 | 400000 | 2208.815 | 1807.692 | 0.3054744 | 520 k |
| 80000 | 50000 | 0.0425 | 450000 | 2213.730 | 1807.692 | 0.3061541 | 520 k |
| 80000 | 50000 | 0.0325 | 500000 | 2176.032 | 1807.692 | 0.3009405 | 520 k |
| 80000 | 60000 | 0.0475 | 450000 | 2347.413 | 1923.077 | 0.3051637 | 560 k |
| 80000 | 60000 | 0.0375 | 500000 | 2315.578 | 1923.077 | 0.3010251 | 560 k |
| 80000 | 70000 | 0.0525 | 450000 | 2484.917 | 2038.462 | 0.3047539 | 600 k |
| 80000 | 70000 | 0.0425 | 500000 | 2459.699 | 2038.462 | 0.3016613 | 600 k |
| 80000 | 80000 | 0.0475 | 500000 | 2608.237 | 2153.846 | 0.3027418 | 640 k |
Generalisation
Considering the previous data, a couple each earning 50k is likely representative of our potential buyers. The generalisation has more intervals for both rates and mortgage amounts, moving up 5bps and 5k respectively. I’ve drawn two curves at 30% and 35% net income. Say this represents two couples with a different debt tolerance and that the preference for the buyers are to opt for the highest amount they can afford given that tolerance.
The couple at 30% will opt for a mortgage below the maximum available at 3.35%, moving left along the curve as rates increase. Where as at a 35% tolerance the buyer will opt for a mortgage below the maximum at 4.6%.
In this scenarion at 4.4% the couple at 30% tolerance will be borrowing at 3.5 times income, the previous restriction.
The reality is I don’t know what the tolerance of the banks and the buyers are, so the result is a blurred line indicating a broad range.
The Central Bank in their recalibration of mortgage measures framework document provided an informative analysis on the distribution of mortgages at varying multiples of income. The 2021 distribution was compared to the 2004 distribution from 0 to 7 times income. The latter was a fat tailed approximately normally spread (in comparison), where as the 2021 distribution spiked at 3.5 times income to account for 35% of loans. This was under 10% in 2004. We can expect that trend to continue. However, given rates are increasing which will effect affordability from the buyers perspective and risk from the banks perspective, I do not expect for the spike at 4 times income to reach quite such a level. All else equal this will amount to buyers borrowing less than their limit when rates peak.↩︎