Nova Scotia Population Growth Scenarios
Executive Summary
Purpose
The Government of Nova Scotia aims to increase the population from 1 million to 2 million by the year 2060. Accommodating an additional 1 million people will require substantial investments in infrastructure such as housing, schools, hospitals, roads, and public transit. What infrastructure is needed, and where, will depend on the age structure and geographic distribution of the new Nova Scotians. If we attract young families with school-aged children, we will need more schools. If we attract retirees, we will need more healthcare facilities. Where the new Nova Scotians settle will govern where these new facilities are needed.
The purpose of this work was to explore what 2 million Nova Scotians in 2060 might look like in terms of the age structure and geographic distribution of the population. It is hoped that this will assist planners as they chart the course to 2 million.
Methods
Four scenarios to achieve two million Nova Scotians by 2060 were explored using a population model that considered births, deaths, in-migration, and geography. The parameters for the four scenarios were chosen with the aim to make the population in the year 2060 older, younger, more urban, or more rural than it is today, while remaining within the bounds of plausibility. Each scenario assumed the same annual provincial population growth rate of 1.82%. All scenarios required positive net in-migration (immigrants or as positive inflow of interprovincial migrants or a mixture of both) to meet the target growth rate. The scenarios differed along three dimensions:
- Life expectancy. Two values of life expectancy were considered: 82 years old (the Canadian life expectancy as of 2021) and 87 years old (representing a five-year increase in life expectancy due, for example, to advancements in healthcare).
- The share of provincial in-migrants that are immigrants (vs. interprovincial migrants). Immigrants are, on average, younger than interprovincial migrants (27 vs. 38 years old) and exhibit a stronger preference for the Halifax functional economic region (FER)1 (83% vs. 54%). Hence the mix of immigrants vs. interprovincial migrants has implications for both the age and geographic distribution of the NS population. Two values of immigration’s share of total provincial in-migrants were considered: 40% and 80%.
- Geographic settlement patterns. In the past 5 years, in-migrants have exhibited strong preferences for some FERs over others. For example, 83% of immigrants and 54% of inter-provincial migrants settled in the Halifax FER. We used the parameter Geographical Momentum to control how strongly these settlement preference patterns persisted into the future. A value of 100% assumes that recent trends persist unchanged (e.g., 83% of immigrants settle in the Halifax FER). A value of 0% assumes that in-migrants prefer all FERs equally (e.g., 9% of immigrants settle in the Halifax FER, as there are 11 FERs and 100% / 11 = 9%). A value in between 0% and 100% assumes a mix of the two (e.g., a value of 70% assumes that 61% of immigrants settle in the Halifax FER (0.7 * 83% + 0.3 * 9%)). Two values of geographic momentum were considered: 70% and 100%.
The parameters used in each of the four scenarios are summarized in the table below.
| Scenario | Description | Life Expectancy (Years) | Immigration (share of in-migration, %) | Geographical Momentum (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Urban and Younger | 82 | 80 | 100 |
| 2 | Urban and Older | 87 | 40 | 100 |
| 3 | Rural and Younger | 82 | 80 | 70 |
| 4 | Rural and Older | 87 | 40 | 70 |
Results
Each year, the total number of in-migrants was chosen to meet the population growth target. This made the population by year the same for each scenario, while the total number of in-migrants differed by scenario (e.g., fewer annual deaths occurred in the increased life expectancy scenarios, reducing the number of in-migrants needed to achieve the population growth target). Population by year is plotted below.
High-level results for each of the four scenarios in the year 2060 are summarized in the table below. Note that in 2021 Nova Scotia’s population is approximately 14% age 14 and under, 64% working age, and 22% age 65 and over.
| Scenario | Description | Age 14 and under (%) | Working age (15-64) (%) | Age 65 and over (%) | FER with largest relative growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Urban and Younger | 16 | 67 | 17 | Halifax (increase = 197%; final population = 1.4M) |
| 2 | Urban and Older | 15 | 62 | 23 | Halifax (increase = 162%; final population = 1.2M) |
| 3 | Rural and Younger | 16 | 67 | 17 | Shelburne (increase = 233%; final population = 46K) |
| 4 | Rural and Older | 15 | 62 | 23 | Shelburne (increase = 255%; final population = 49K) |
The scenarios differ along dimensions with important planning implications, such as the percentage of the population that is school-aged, working-aged, and retirement-aged, and the geographical region with the largest relative increase in population. Importantly, the population of the Halifax FER exceeded 1 million in 2060 under all scenarios considered, including the “Rural and Older” scenario. Additionally, the percentage of the NS population that is of working age decreases for the next 10 years under all scenarios considered. Detailed age and geographical breakdowns of the 2060 population under each scenario are given in the corresponding sections below. We also provide a web application so that users can choose their own parameters and run their own scenarios.
Scenarios
Urban and Younger
Summary
In this scenario, life expectancy remains unchanged, immigrants make up the majority (80%) of provincial in-migrants, and in-migrants continue to exhibit the same geographical preferences as they did from 2017 to 2021 (e.g., 83% of immigrants settle in the Halifax FER).
In this scenario, the Halifax FER experiences the largest population growth in percentage terms, increasing by 197% to 1.4M in 2060. The share of the population that is working aged (15-64) increases from 64% to 67%, and the proportion of the population that is aged 65 and over decreases from 22% to 17%.
Parameters
- Average life expectancy: 82 years.
- Proportion of In-migrants that are Immigrants: 80%.
- In-migrant Geographical Momentum: 100%.
Key Metrics
Components of Population Growth
Geographic Distribution
Map
Table
Urban and Older
Summary
In this scenario, life expectancy increases by 5 years to 87, interprovincial migrants make up the majority (60%) of provincial in-migrants, and in-migrants continue to exhibit the same geographical preferences as they did from 2017 to 2021 (e.g., 54% of interprovincial migrants settle in the Halifax FER).
In this scenario, the Halifax FER experiences the largest population growth in percentage terms, increasing by 162% to 1.2M in 2060. The share of the population that is working aged decreases to 62%, and the proportion of the population that is aged 65 and over increases to 23%.
Parameters
- Average life expectancy: 87 years.
- Proportion of In-migrants that are Immigrants: 40%.
- In-migrant Geographical Momentum: 100%.
Key Metrics
Components of Population Growth
Geographic Distribution
Map
Table
Rural and Younger
Summary
In this scenario, life expectancy remains unchanged, immigrants make up the majority (80%) of provincial in-migrants, and in-migrants exhibit weaker geographical preferences than they did from 2017 to 2021 (e.g., 61% of immigrants settle in the Halifax FER).
In this scenario, the Shelburne FER experiences the largest population growth in percentage terms, increasing by 233% to 46K in 2060. The share of the population that is working aged increases to 67%, and the proportion of the population that is aged 65 and over decreases to 17%.
Parameters
- Average life expectancy: 82 years.
- Proportion of In-migrants that are Immigrants: 80%.
- In-migrant Geographical Momentum: 70%.
Key Metrics
Components of Population Growth
Geographic Distribution
Map
Table
Rural and Older
Summary
In this scenario, life expectancy increases by 5 years to 87, interprovincial migrants make up the majority (60%) of provincial in-migrants, and in-migrants exhibit weaker geographical preferences than they did from 2017 to 2021 (e.g., 41% of interprovincial migrants settle in the Halifax FER).
In this scenario, the Shelburne FER experiences the largest population growth in percentage terms, increasing by 255% to 49K in 2060. The share of the population that is working aged decreases to 62%, and the proportion of the population that is aged 65 and over increases to 23%.
Parameters
- Average life expectancy: 87 years.
- Proportion of In-migrants that are Immigrants: 40%.
- In-migrant Geographical Momentum: 70%.
Key Metrics
Components of Population Growth
Geographic Distribution
Map
Table
A functional economic region (FER) is a geographic area with a high level of economic integration among its communities, people, and businesses. Such areas are defined by the extent of the regional labour market, or where most of its residents live and work. The most widely accepted approach to identifying FERs is based on self-contained labour market areas (SLAs). Statistics Canada has delineated SLAs across Canada based on home-to-work commuting flows. Nova Scotia is divided into 11 FERs. Although a few FERs span county lines, the 11 FERs are well-approximated by combining counties as follows: Annapolis-Hants-Kings, Antigonish-Guysborough, Cape Breton, Colchester, Cumberland, Digby-Yarmouth, Halifax, Inverness-Richmond-Victoria, Lunenburg-Queens, Pictou, and Shelburne↩︎