This report summarizes how each team has done so far this season and
could act as a guide for how to improve your respective teams. Let me
know if you have any questions or suggestions for stuff to add.
Roto Standings Over
Time
This chart shows the standings for if we were in a roto league, where
each team is ranked by how well they did in each stat category (12
points for 1st place, 1 for last). Five different managers have held the
top spot throughout the season, with newcomer Leo currently in first
(and he’s just 0.5 games behind Shawn in the actual standings). It’s a
close battle for the next five spots between Shawn, Brett B, Jeff, Jon
and myself. The 3-week moving average tab shows the same chart but on a
rolling 3-week basis. This is good for capturing short-term trends, such
as teams facing injury issues or players that have been on a hot streak.
One thing that stands out to me is that Kevin has had some really great
weeks recently and might be able to sneak back into the playoff picture.
These charts are interactive, so you can hover over the points on each
team’s line to see how they progressed in the standings.
Best Weeks Overall
This table showcases the top 10 overall weeks of the season, based on
taking the ranking of each category among all weeks for all teams, and
then summing up that rank. To give an example of how this works, a team
with 9 Expected Wins would mean somebody had the best score for each
category for the whole season. As mentioned above, Kevin’s team is
surging and just posted the best week of anyone this season (7.42
expected wins!). Overall, nine of the twelve teams in this league make
an appearance on this list, with Brett B the only manager with two top
weeks. That speaks to how balanced the league is this year.
Best Weeks of the Season
|
Team
|
Week
|
Games
|
Expected Wins
|
FGP
|
FTP
|
TPM
|
PTS
|
REB
|
AST
|
ST
|
BL
|
TO
|
|
Jamal Crossover
|
13
|
44
|
7.42
|
0.512
|
0.856
|
82
|
866
|
251
|
168
|
32
|
30
|
67
|
|
Oliver James First of His Name
|
2
|
46
|
6.64
|
0.489
|
0.837
|
81
|
716
|
252
|
156
|
34
|
22
|
67
|
|
Towns Syndrome
|
11
|
45
|
6.61
|
0.488
|
0.824
|
86
|
845
|
271
|
138
|
43
|
32
|
86
|
|
Big Ballers
|
11
|
41
|
6.55
|
0.495
|
0.826
|
65
|
627
|
239
|
161
|
47
|
29
|
69
|
|
Midnight Tokers
|
9
|
43
|
6.54
|
0.481
|
0.806
|
70
|
717
|
253
|
140
|
46
|
25
|
64
|
|
Young Bloods
|
11
|
43
|
6.45
|
0.527
|
0.761
|
73
|
860
|
268
|
138
|
37
|
33
|
77
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
13
|
46
|
6.32
|
0.478
|
0.870
|
88
|
820
|
223
|
195
|
48
|
17
|
84
|
|
Dray’s Iron Fist
|
6
|
42
|
6.29
|
0.507
|
0.848
|
62
|
638
|
218
|
162
|
45
|
29
|
77
|
|
Purple Reign
|
11
|
43
|
6.28
|
0.470
|
0.836
|
71
|
655
|
221
|
157
|
48
|
30
|
73
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
8
|
43
|
6.18
|
0.523
|
0.848
|
64
|
621
|
236
|
148
|
37
|
35
|
84
|
Actual vs Expected Wins
I’m sure all of us can recall a week where our team was awesome but
we happened to be playing a team that was doing even better. There’s
also the occasional week where your shooting percentages are awful but
your opponent is having even worse luck than you. There will always be a
luck component to fantasy basketball, and I thought it would be
interesting to try to quantify it.
For each week of the season, I looked at how every team ranked across
the stat categories to come up with an “expected wins” metric. I then
took the difference between actual and expected to see who has gotten
lucky/unlucky.
One big caveat to this analysis is that managers will do what it
takes to maximize points in each matchup (e.g., if I’m chasing points
and assists, I might stream a bunch of guards, which means my field goal
percentage might suffer.) This would be reflected in my expected wins
total even though I might not have managed my team the same way if I had
faced a different opponent.
Mitch’s 6-3 victory in Week 2 is considered the luckiest of the season,
netting him 2.64 wins over what was expected if he had played every team
that week. Overall, 8 of the 12 teams in this league appear on this
list, but Andrew has 2 of the 4 luckiest weeks!
Luckiest Weeks of the Season
|
Team
|
Week
|
Actual Wins
|
Expected Wins
|
Win Difference
|
|
Purple Reign
|
2
|
6.0
|
2.64
|
3.36
|
|
Young Bloods
|
11
|
9.0
|
6.00
|
3.00
|
|
Oliver James First of His Name
|
3
|
6.0
|
3.05
|
2.95
|
|
Young Bloods
|
10
|
6.5
|
3.55
|
2.95
|
|
Shawn’s Team
|
9
|
7.0
|
4.09
|
2.91
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
7
|
7.0
|
4.27
|
2.73
|
|
There Goes My Herro
|
8
|
7.0
|
4.36
|
2.64
|
|
Jamal Crossover
|
4
|
7.0
|
4.41
|
2.59
|
|
Shawn’s Team
|
13
|
7.5
|
5.23
|
2.27
|
|
Towns Syndrome
|
13
|
8.0
|
5.77
|
2.23
|
Jeff had one of the best weeks of the season in Week 9, and Fahim was
unfortunate enough to be matched against him (3.77 expected wins). Fahim
joins Leo and Brett B as managers with multiple spots in this
unfortunate list.
Unluckiest Weeks of the Season
|
Team
|
Week
|
Actual Wins
|
Expected Wins
|
Win Difference
|
|
Dwight for MVP
|
9
|
0.0
|
3.77
|
-3.77
|
|
Towns Syndrome
|
2
|
1.5
|
4.68
|
-3.18
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
2
|
3.0
|
5.77
|
-2.77
|
|
Midnight Tokers
|
11
|
2.0
|
4.77
|
-2.77
|
|
Dwight for MVP
|
10
|
1.0
|
3.50
|
-2.50
|
|
Jamal Crossover
|
5
|
3.0
|
5.45
|
-2.45
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
3
|
4.0
|
6.27
|
-2.27
|
|
Shawn’s Team
|
8
|
3.0
|
5.27
|
-2.27
|
|
Towns Syndrome
|
8
|
3.0
|
5.09
|
-2.09
|
|
Dray’s Iron Fist
|
3
|
2.0
|
4.05
|
-2.05
|
League Activity
The plot below shows where everyone ranks in total games played,
acquisitions made, and number of category wins on the season. You can
hover over each dot to view the values. The teams currently in playoff
position tend to be in or near the top-right quadrant, showing the
importance of maxing out games and picking up players throughout the
season.
Team Summaries
I made these spider plots mostly because they look cool, but you can
also get a relative sense of strengths and weaknesses compared to the
rest of the league.
