Predicting Future Christmas Prices

Joshua Parsell
12/23/2022

Model Dataset : PNC's Christmas Price Index

PNC Bank has been publishing a “Chrismas Price Index” since 1984.

  • The index tracks inflation in the context of Christmas gift-giving, similarly to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index, by tracking the price of a consistent “basket of goods and services” each year
  • The “basket” consists of all the gifts given in the song “The Twelve Days of Christmas” (not including repeats! E.g. only one partridge in one pear tree is priced, not one per day)
  • All 39 years of data taken from the PNC website: https://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/

Predicting the index in future years

  • A simple linear model correlates the price of the index to the year
  • For any year beyond 1984, the model will predict the price of the index
    • Before 1984 the results are not meaningful
    • Predictions go negative at 1958

Plot of the Index Data and the Model

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-1

Conclusion

  • This Shiny App will help users estimate how much it will cost to shower their true love with the twelve days of gifts in the classic song in any future year.
  • As a bonus, it also informs users upon which day of the week Christmas will fall in the year they choose.