Australia in Future Asia-Pacific Chessboard

Australia in Future Asia-Pacific Chessboard

In the history of international diplomacy, Asia Pacific, with the great potential of resources; oceanic territorial sea rights; market for labour, goods and investment, has always been chaotic for plundering disputes and appealing deals at where the global great powers collide. 

Collide will always form at where the war, conflicts and disputes are. 

ASEAN has become increasingly appealing and attracted strong global political economy’s rivalry e.g. China vs. The U.S. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is composed of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

In the last decade, China has been active in its diplomatic activity for neighborhood, ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative, which has collaborated with most countries in the ASEAN (Parliament of Australia, 2022). The U.S. has adopted a series of comprehensive partnerships from The U.S.-ASEAN Relationship (US. Department of States, 2022). Australia seems to play the follower to The U.S. in the rivalry to combat China, formed AUKUS in 2021. 

But now seems to be a gap of time for Australia to be nurturing and collaborative, rather than following the U.S. to intensify confronting rivalry with China in the Asia-Pacific chessboard.

The Problem and Questions Tab

Under the current intense trade and political rivalry in the Asia-Pacific between China and The U.S.. The research is to identify what potentials and opportunities might Australia have in the future political economy on the chessboard of diplomacy for the region. 

The Question

  • Question 1

Between China and The U.S., which country is the dominating foreign political economy in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nation) as in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Amount?

  • Question 2

Which ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nation) countries and Industries had the most growing potential for future Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)? 

  • Which ASEAN countries and industries yield the bottom 3 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Flow Inward (in millions) for the past 5 years?
  • Question 3

What is the prediction for the future 5 years (in 2027) in terms of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow inwards, for the most potential ASEAN country (the top 1 country), and the most prospective industries(the top 1 industry)?

Data Source & Limitations Tab

Data Source

Limitation

Methodology Tab

Methodology

  • Both qualitative and quantitative.

  • Preliminary findings and gap identification & analysis was derived from the qualitative research method.

  • Research questions were analysed and addressed from quantitative research methods.

  • Descriptive analysis and inferential statistics are adopted for addressing research questions.

Column

Research Results Tab

Research Q1 Results

As seen from the above yield results, in 2021, in total, China invested USD $ 879,600 million, which has outperformed US with only USD $376,834.1 million.

Therefore we can conclude results for Q1, in the (Foreign Direct Investment) FDI rivalry between China and The U.S., China is the dominating foreign political economy in the AESAN.

Research Q2 Results

  • For most potential countries our results are Brunei Drussalam, Lao PDR and Cambodia are the three countries with the most potential to grow.

  • For most potential industries, we are ignoring those industries with negative flow_inwards. It seems that Education, Administrative and support service, Arts, entertainment and recreation has portraited a consistent results, which were under-invested by FDI from the past 5 years.

Research Q3 Results

  • we can therefore predict that in 2027 for country Brunel Darussalam, the predicted amount of flow inward in FDI in 2027 equals as = 460 + 334*(2027-2017) = 3,800 million USD

Conclusion & Limitation Tab

To Conclude, under the current intense trade and political rivalry in the Asia-Pacific between China and The U.S., Australia may consider

  1. Be collaborative with China, since it is dominating.

  2. Be nurturing towards countries e.g. Lao PDR, Cambodia and Brunel Darussalam, where it has a predicted 3,800 million USD FDI potential flow inwards value in 2027, in industry sectors such as Education.

Analysis, results and conclusions may not be accurate and indicative, bias and inaccuracy treatment is needed for derived advisory.

Lastly, let us just be practical, researchers, editors, analysts, and IT solution architects’ well-being, energy level, given time, resources, knowledge barriers and constraints need be discussed in detailed another writing if is in need .

Reference Tab