US of A Energy Consumption
Sholah
2022-12-02
1 Intro
In this project, I will be forecasting the US Energy consumption. the data is recorded monthly Now let’s import the data set
2 Import Data Set
Energy <- read.csv("electricity_data.csv")3 EDA
let’s see our data set
Energy |> head(3)## X United.States...all.sectors United.States...electric.utility
## 1 2001-01-01 332493 236467
## 2 2001-02-01 282940 199802
## 3 2001-03-01 300707 211942
## United.States...independent.power.producers United.States...all.commercial
## 1 82269 629
## 2 71169 548
## 3 75758 553
## United.States...all.industrial New.England...all.sectors
## 1 13128 10005
## 2 11421 8662
## 3 12454 9506
## New.England...electric.utility New.England...independent.power.producers
## 1 2467 6959
## 2 2289 5873
## 3 2061 6882
## New.England...all.commercial New.England...all.industrial
## 1 68 510
## 2 65 435
## 3 70 493
## Connecticut...all.sectors Connecticut...electric.utility
## 1 2930 1411
## 2 1853 661
## 3 2386 695
## Connecticut...independent.power.producers Connecticut...all.commercial
## 1 1503 2
## 2 1178 2
## 3 1673 3
## Connecticut...all.industrial Maine...all.sectors Maine...electric.utility
## 1 14 1648 --
## 2 11 1463 --
## 3 16 1503 --
## Maine...independent.power.producers Maine...all.commercial
## 1 1213 12
## 2 1092 13
## 3 1088 12
## Maine...all.industrial Massachusetts...all.sectors
## 1 424 3802
## 2 358 3146
## 3 404 3597
## Massachusetts...electric.utility Massachusetts...independent.power.producers
## 1 146 3571
## 2 97 2969
## 3 167 3343
## Massachusetts...all.commercial Massachusetts...all.industrial
## 1 47 38
## 2 45 34
## 3 49 38
## New.Hampshire...all.sectors New.Hampshire...electric.utility
## 1 652 446
## 2 1280 1123
## 3 958 795
## New.Hampshire...independent.power.producers New.Hampshire...all.commercial
## 1 173 4
## 2 126 3
## 3 128 3
## New.Hampshire...all.industrial Rhode.Island...all.sectors
## 1 30 424
## 2 28 444
## 3 33 590
## Rhode.Island...electric.utility Rhode.Island...independent.power.producers
## 1 -- 420
## 2 -- 440
## 3 -- 585
## Rhode.Island...all.commercial Rhode.Island...all.industrial
## 1 3 0
## 2 3 0
## 3 4 0
## Vermont...all.sectors Vermont...electric.utility
## 1 548 464
## 2 478 407
## 3 472 404
## Vermont...independent.power.producers Vermont...all.commercial
## 1 80 --
## 2 68 --
## 3 64 --
## Vermont...all.industrial Middle.Atlantic...all.sectors
## 1 4 36792
## 2 3 31219
## 3 3 33903
## Middle.Atlantic...electric.utility
## 1 8428
## 2 7254
## 3 8014
## Middle.Atlantic...independent.power.producers
## 1 27519
## 2 23202
## 3 25048
## Middle.Atlantic...all.commercial Middle.Atlantic...all.industrial
## 1 100 745
## 2 87 676
## 3 87 753
## New.Jersey...all.sectors New.Jersey...electric.utility
## 1 5306 195
## 2 4706 146
## 3 4947 122
## New.Jersey...independent.power.producers New.Jersey...all.commercial
## 1 4815 14
## 2 4290 13
## 3 4547 14
## New.Jersey...all.industrial New.York...all.sectors
## 1 282 12622
## 2 257 11460
## 3 265 12115
## New.York...electric.utility New.York...independent.power.producers
## 1 5795 6606
## 2 4891 6370
## 3 5373 6524
## New.York...all.commercial New.York...all.industrial
## 1 48 173
## 2 43 155
## 3 46 171
## Pennsylvania...all.sectors Pennsylvania...electric.utility
## 1 18864 2437
## 2 15053 2217
## 3 16841 2520
## Pennsylvania...independent.power.producers Pennsylvania...all.commercial
## 1 16098 38
## 2 12542 31
## 3 13978 27
## Pennsylvania...all.industrial East.North.Central...all.sectors
## 1 290 55695
## 2 264 48200
## 3 317 51377
## East.North.Central...electric.utility
## 1 39970
## 2 34347
## 3 36133
## East.North.Central...independent.power.producers
## 1 14658
## 2 12900
## 3 14193
## East.North.Central...all.commercial East.North.Central...all.industrial
## 1 74 994
## 2 67 886
## 3 71 981
## Illinois...all.sectors Illinois...electric.utility
## 1 16039 2854
## 2 13914 2378
## 3 14882 2239
## Illinois...independent.power.producers Illinois...all.commercial
## 1 12923 21
## 2 11319 19
## 3 12393 20
## Illinois...all.industrial Indiana...all.sectors Indiana...electric.utility
## 1 241 10947 10335
## 2 198 9661 9051
## 3 230 9951 9320
## Indiana...independent.power.producers Indiana...all.commercial
## 1 304 19
## 2 301 18
## 3 289 16
## Indiana...all.industrial Michigan...all.sectors Michigan...electric.utility
## 1 289 10183 9154
## 2 291 8871 7933
## 3 326 9681 8610
## Michigan...independent.power.producers Michigan...all.commercial
## 1 877 19
## 2 813 17
## 3 926 20
## Michigan...all.industrial Ohio...all.sectors Ohio...electric.utility
## 1 133 13163 12531
## 2 107 11162 10669
## 3 125 12108 11545
## Ohio...independent.power.producers Ohio...all.commercial
## 1 512 2
## 2 395 1
## 3 458 2
## Ohio...all.industrial Wisconsin...all.sectors Wisconsin...electric.utility
## 1 118 5364 5097
## 2 97 4594 4316
## 3 103 4755 4419
## Wisconsin...independent.power.producers Wisconsin...all.commercial
## 1 41 13
## 2 73 11
## 3 127 13
## Wisconsin...all.industrial West.North.Central...all.sectors
## 1 213 25600
## 2 194 22084
## 3 197 22011
## West.North.Central...electric.utility
## 1 25026
## 2 21578
## 3 21506
## West.North.Central...independent.power.producers
## 1 238
## 2 204
## 3 180
## West.North.Central...all.commercial West.North.Central...all.industrial
## 1 36 300
## 2 33 269
## 3 32 293
## Iowa...all.sectors Iowa...electric.utility Iowa...independent.power.producers
## 1 3761 3590 59
## 2 3244 3095 47
## 3 3576 3419 52
## Iowa...all.commercial Iowa...all.industrial Kansas...all.sectors
## 1 13 99 4108
## 2 12 90 3274
## 3 10 96 3340
## Kansas...electric.utility Kansas...independent.power.producers
## 1 4105 --
## 2 3271 --
## 3 3336 --
## Kansas...all.commercial Kansas...all.industrial Minnesota...all.sectors
## 1 0 3 4333
## 2 0 3 3840
## 3 0 3 3663
## Minnesota...electric.utility Minnesota...independent.power.producers
## 1 3984 178
## 2 3531 157
## 3 3371 128
## Minnesota...all.commercial Minnesota...all.industrial Missouri...all.sectors
## 1 12 158 7120
## 2 11 142 6216
## 3 11 153 5891
## Missouri...electric.utility Missouri...independent.power.producers
## 1 7092 --
## 2 6189 --
## 3 5864 0
## Missouri...all.commercial Missouri...all.industrial Nebraska...all.sectors
## 1 9 20 2899
## 2 8 18 2425
## 3 10 17 2250
## Nebraska...electric.utility Nebraska...independent.power.producers
## 1 2893 1
## 2 2418 1
## 3 2243 1
## Nebraska...all.commercial Nebraska...all.industrial
## 1 2 4
## 2 2 5
## 3 1 5
## North.Dakota...all.sectors North.Dakota...electric.utility
## 1 2751 2734
## 2 2514 2502
## 3 2690 2670
## North.Dakota...independent.power.producers North.Dakota...all.commercial
## 1 -- --
## 2 -- --
## 3 -- --
## North.Dakota...all.industrial South.Dakota...all.sectors
## 1 16 628
## 2 12 572
## 3 20 601
## South.Dakota...electric.utility South.Dakota...independent.power.producers
## 1 628 --
## 2 572 --
## 3 601 --
## South.Dakota...all.commercial South.Dakota...all.industrial
## 1 -- --
## 2 -- --
## 3 -- --
## South.Atlantic...all.sectors South.Atlantic...electric.utility
## 1 67187 54761
## 2 54571 43905
## 3 58511 48419
## South.Atlantic...independent.power.producers South.Atlantic...all.commercial
## 1 10533 93
## 2 9051 54
## 3 8371 51
## South.Atlantic...all.industrial Delaware...all.sectors
## 1 1799 626
## 2 1561 521
## 3 1670 867
## Delaware...electric.utility Delaware...independent.power.producers
## 1 373 205
## 2 332 150
## 3 330 481
## Delaware...all.commercial Delaware...all.industrial
## 1 -- 48
## 2 -- 39
## 3 -- 55
## District.Of.Columbia...all.sectors District.Of.Columbia...electric.utility
## 1 9 --
## 2 0 --
## 3 0 --
## District.Of.Columbia...independent.power.producers
## 1 9
## 2 0
## 3 0
## District.Of.Columbia...all.commercial District.Of.Columbia...all.industrial
## 1 -- --
## 2 -- --
## 3 -- --
## Florida...all.sectors Florida...electric.utility
## 1 16937 15251
## 2 12761 11369
## 3 14115 12555
## Florida...independent.power.producers Florida...all.commercial
## 1 1257 10
## 2 1010 8
## 3 1165 9
## Florida...all.industrial Georgia...all.sectors Georgia...electric.utility
## 1 419 11084 10510
## 2 375 8332 7825
## 3 386 9844 9345
## Georgia...independent.power.producers Georgia...all.commercial
## 1 70 0
## 2 54 0
## 3 43 0
## Georgia...all.industrial Maryland...all.sectors Maryland...electric.utility
## 1 504 4603 19
## 2 452 4182 1
## 3 456 3597 51
## Maryland...independent.power.producers Maryland...all.commercial
## 1 4576 3
## 2 4174 2
## 3 3539 2
## Maryland...all.industrial North.Carolina...all.sectors
## 1 5 10512
## 2 5 8862
## 3 5 9303
## North.Carolina...electric.utility
## 1 9839
## 2 8284
## 3 8643
## North.Carolina...independent.power.producers North.Carolina...all.commercial
## 1 356 14
## 2 298 11
## 3 315 8
## North.Carolina...all.industrial South.Carolina...all.sectors
## 1 303 7646
## 2 270 6638
## 3 338 7385
## South.Carolina...electric.utility
## 1 7432
## 2 6484
## 3 7231
## South.Carolina...independent.power.producers South.Carolina...all.commercial
## 1 46 5
## 2 45 4
## 3 42 5
## South.Carolina...all.industrial Virginia...all.sectors
## 1 162 7117
## 2 104 5894
## 3 108 6358
## Virginia...electric.utility Virginia...independent.power.producers
## 1 5826 1013
## 2 4906 784
## 3 5288 870
## Virginia...all.commercial Virginia...all.industrial
## 1 62 216
## 2 28 177
## 3 27 173
## West.Virginia...all.sectors West.Virginia...electric.utility
## 1 8653 5512
## 2 7381 4704
## 3 7041 4976
## West.Virginia...independent.power.producers West.Virginia...all.commercial
## 1 2999 --
## 2 2537 --
## 3 1915 --
## West.Virginia...all.industrial East.South.Central...all.sectors
## 1 143 32115
## 2 140 27307
## 3 150 29402
## East.South.Central...electric.utility
## 1 29979
## 2 25454
## 3 27369
## East.South.Central...independent.power.producers
## 1 1102
## 2 1031
## 3 1167
## East.South.Central...all.commercial East.South.Central...all.industrial
## 1 9 1025
## 2 9 813
## 3 9 856
## Alabama...all.sectors Alabama...electric.utility
## 1 11327 10695
## 2 9576 9070
## 3 9364 8829
## Alabama...independent.power.producers Alabama...all.commercial
## 1 48 --
## 2 45 --
## 3 47 --
## Alabama...all.industrial Kentucky...all.sectors Kentucky...electric.utility
## 1 583 8118 7058
## 2 461 7534 6562
## 3 489 8202 7208
## Kentucky...independent.power.producers Kentucky...all.commercial
## 1 1043 --
## 2 956 --
## 3 977 --
## Kentucky...all.industrial Mississippi...all.sectors
## 1 18 3564
## 2 16 2743
## 3 16 3643
## Mississippi...electric.utility Mississippi...independent.power.producers
## 1 3376 8
## 2 2578 28
## 3 3371 141
## Mississippi...all.commercial Mississippi...all.industrial
## 1 1 179
## 2 1 136
## 3 1 130
## Tennessee...all.sectors Tennessee...electric.utility
## 1 9106 8851
## 2 7454 7244
## 3 8193 7961
## Tennessee...independent.power.producers Tennessee...all.commercial
## 1 2 8
## 2 2 9
## 3 2 8
## Tennessee...all.industrial West.South.Central...all.sectors
## 1 245 46990
## 2 200 39136
## 3 221 40834
## West.South.Central...electric.utility
## 1 34843
## 2 28424
## 3 29355
## West.South.Central...independent.power.producers
## 1 6424
## 2 5604
## 3 5892
## West.South.Central...all.commercial West.South.Central...all.industrial
## 1 41 5684
## 2 36 5072
## 3 41 5546
## Arkansas...all.sectors Arkansas...electric.utility
## 1 3903 3704
## 2 3372 3200
## 3 3125 2958
## Arkansas...independent.power.producers Arkansas...all.commercial
## 1 0 1
## 2 0 1
## 3 0 1
## Arkansas...all.industrial Louisiana...all.sectors
## 1 199 7595
## 2 171 6105
## 3 166 6321
## Louisiana...electric.utility Louisiana...independent.power.producers
## 1 4599 1158
## 2 3175 1184
## 3 3348 1145
## Louisiana...all.commercial Louisiana...all.industrial Oklahoma...all.sectors
## 1 2 1837 4491
## 2 2 1744 4033
## 3 2 1826 3808
## Oklahoma...electric.utility Oklahoma...independent.power.producers
## 1 4090 287
## 2 3691 242
## 3 3568 151
## Oklahoma...all.commercial Oklahoma...all.industrial Texas...all.sectors
## 1 2 112 31001
## 2 2 98 25627
## 3 2 87 27580
## Texas...electric.utility Texas...independent.power.producers
## 1 22450 4979
## 2 18357 4178
## 3 19482 4596
## Texas...all.commercial Texas...all.industrial Mountain...all.sectors
## 1 36 3537 27506
## 2 32 3059 25227
## 3 36 3466 25870
## Mountain...electric.utility Mountain...independent.power.producers
## 1 24203 3050
## 2 22107 2881
## 3 22859 2748
## Mountain...all.commercial Mountain...all.industrial Arizona...all.sectors
## 1 25 229 7574
## 2 25 215 6617
## 3 29 234 7326
## Arizona...electric.utility Arizona...independent.power.producers
## 1 7499 41
## 2 6547 37
## 3 7252 41
## Arizona...all.commercial Arizona...all.industrial Colorado...all.sectors
## 1 2 33 4163
## 2 1 31 3777
## 3 2 31 3842
## Colorado...electric.utility Colorado...independent.power.producers
## 1 3664 477
## 2 3281 473
## 3 3344 470
## Colorado...all.commercial Colorado...all.industrial Idaho...all.sectors
## 1 17 6 605
## 2 17 6 503
## 3 20 7 595
## Idaho...electric.utility Idaho...independent.power.producers
## 1 505 35
## 2 410 33
## 3 486 39
## Idaho...all.commercial Idaho...all.industrial Montana...all.sectors
## 1 -- 65 2301
## 2 -- 60 2105
## 3 -- 71 1921
## Montana...electric.utility Montana...independent.power.producers
## 1 453 1841
## 2 459 1639
## 3 310 1604
## Montana...all.commercial Montana...all.industrial Nevada...all.sectors
## 1 -- 7 2966
## 2 -- 7 2969
## 3 -- 7 3040
## Nevada...electric.utility Nevada...independent.power.producers
## 1 2461 504
## 2 2417 552
## 3 2596 444
## Nevada...all.commercial Nevada...all.industrial New.Mexico...all.sectors
## 1 -- -- 2919
## 2 -- -- 2713
## 3 -- -- 2617
## New.Mexico...electric.utility New.Mexico...independent.power.producers
## 1 2787 93
## 2 2578 95
## 3 2484 90
## New.Mexico...all.commercial New.Mexico...all.industrial Utah...all.sectors
## 1 5 34 2957
## 2 5 35 2796
## 3 5 38 2435
## Utah...electric.utility Utah...independent.power.producers
## 1 2899 35
## 2 2742 31
## 3 2369 39
## Utah...all.commercial Utah...all.industrial Wyoming...all.sectors
## 1 1 23 4021
## 2 1 22 3747
## 3 1 27 4093
## Wyoming...electric.utility Wyoming...independent.power.producers
## 1 3935 24
## 2 3673 21
## 3 4020 21
## Wyoming...all.commercial Wyoming...all.industrial
## 1 -- 61
## 2 -- 53
## 3 -- 53
## Pacific.Contiguous...all.sectors Pacific.Contiguous...electric.utility
## 1 29087 15774
## 2 25186 13566
## 3 27833 15194
## Pacific.Contiguous...independent.power.producers
## 1 11446
## 2 10106
## 3 10999
## Pacific.Contiguous...all.commercial Pacific.Contiguous...all.industrial
## 1 173 1694
## 2 154 1360
## 3 146 1494
## California...all.sectors California...electric.utility
## 1 16619 5187
## 2 14380 4415
## 3 15849 5119
## California...independent.power.producers California...all.commercial
## 1 9798 163
## 2 8603 145
## 3 9301 136
## California...all.industrial Oregon...all.sectors Oregon...electric.utility
## 1 1470 4150 3658
## 2 1217 3718 3309
## 3 1293 4209 3714
## Oregon...independent.power.producers Oregon...all.commercial
## 1 398 1
## 2 367 1
## 3 407 1
## Oregon...all.industrial Washington...all.sectors
## 1 94 8318
## 2 41 7088
## 3 86 7776
## Washington...electric.utility Washington...independent.power.producers
## 1 6929 1250
## 2 5842 1136
## 3 6360 1291
## Washington...all.commercial Washington...all.industrial
## 1 9 131
## 2 8 102
## 3 9 115
## Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.sectors Pacific.Noncontiguous...electric.utility
## 1 1515 1017
## 2 1347 880
## 3 1460 1032
## Pacific.Noncontiguous...independent.power.producers
## 1 340
## 2 315
## 3 276
## Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.commercial Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.industrial
## 1 10 148
## 2 18 134
## 3 18 134
## Alaska...all.sectors Alaska...electric.utility
## 1 590 493
## 2 546 423
## 3 587 459
## Alaska...independent.power.producers Alaska...all.commercial
## 1 20 10
## 2 22 18
## 3 23 18
## Alaska...all.industrial Hawaii...all.sectors Hawaii...electric.utility
## 1 67 925 524
## 2 84 801 457
## 3 88 873 573
## Hawaii...independent.power.producers Hawaii...all.commercial
## 1 320 --
## 2 293 --
## 3 254 --
## Hawaii...all.industrial
## 1 81
## 2 51
## 3 46Energy |> tail(3)## X United.States...all.sectors United.States...electric.utility
## 253 2022-01-01 378967 205875
## 254 2022-02-01 327767 172436
## 255 2022-03-01 325952 166277
## United.States...independent.power.producers United.States...all.commercial
## 253 159328 1203
## 254 143311 1033
## 255 146938 1054
## United.States...all.industrial New.England...all.sectors
## 253 12560 9739
## 254 10987 8065
## 255 11684 8570
## New.England...electric.utility New.England...independent.power.producers
## 253 363 9041
## 254 243 7513
## 255 179 8081
## New.England...all.commercial New.England...all.industrial
## 253 107 228
## 254 100 209
## 255 99 211
## Connecticut...all.sectors Connecticut...electric.utility
## 253 3619 7
## 254 3336 8
## 255 3735 9
## Connecticut...independent.power.producers Connecticut...all.commercial
## 253 3535 28
## 254 3256 27
## 255 3653 26
## Connecticut...all.industrial Maine...all.sectors Maine...electric.utility
## 253 49 1227 NM
## 254 46 984 NM
## 255 48 1091 NM
## Maine...independent.power.producers Maine...all.commercial
## 253 1068 11
## 254 841 10
## 255 949 10
## Maine...all.industrial Massachusetts...all.sectors
## 253 148 2251
## 254 132 1584
## 255 131 1497
## Massachusetts...electric.utility
## 253 NM
## 254 29
## 255 35
## Massachusetts...independent.power.producers Massachusetts...all.commercial
## 253 2134 56
## 254 1487 52
## 255 1397 48
## Massachusetts...all.industrial New.Hampshire...all.sectors
## 253 17 1812
## 254 17 1397
## 255 17 1463
## New.Hampshire...electric.utility
## 253 218
## 254 114
## 255 38
## New.Hampshire...independent.power.producers New.Hampshire...all.commercial
## 253 1585 7
## 254 1275 6
## 255 1416 6
## New.Hampshire...all.industrial Rhode.Island...all.sectors
## 253 2 634
## 254 2 566
## 255 3 558
## Rhode.Island...electric.utility Rhode.Island...independent.power.producers
## 253 0 617
## 254 0 549
## 255 0 538
## Rhode.Island...all.commercial Rhode.Island...all.industrial
## 253 5 NM
## 254 NM 12
## 255 9 NM
## Vermont...all.sectors Vermont...electric.utility
## 253 195 93
## 254 197 93
## 255 226 98
## Vermont...independent.power.producers Vermont...all.commercial
## 253 102 0
## 254 104 0
## 255 128 0
## Vermont...all.industrial Middle.Atlantic...all.sectors
## 253 -- 39233
## 254 -- 34871
## 255 -- 34851
## Middle.Atlantic...electric.utility
## 253 3312
## 254 2723
## 255 2947
## Middle.Atlantic...independent.power.producers
## 253 35274
## 254 31549
## 255 31262
## Middle.Atlantic...all.commercial Middle.Atlantic...all.industrial
## 253 214 434
## 254 175 425
## 255 197 445
## New.Jersey...all.sectors New.Jersey...electric.utility
## 253 4742 1
## 254 4743 6
## 255 5046 12
## New.Jersey...independent.power.producers New.Jersey...all.commercial
## 253 4638 60
## 254 4653 47
## 255 4937 58
## New.Jersey...all.industrial New.York...all.sectors
## 253 43 11198
## 254 37 9441
## 255 39 8999
## New.York...electric.utility New.York...independent.power.producers
## 253 3301 7706
## 254 2708 6558
## 255 2922 5896
## New.York...all.commercial New.York...all.industrial
## 253 NM 78
## 254 96 79
## 255 104 77
## Pennsylvania...all.sectors Pennsylvania...electric.utility
## 253 23293 10
## 254 20687 8
## 255 20806 13
## Pennsylvania...independent.power.producers Pennsylvania...all.commercial
## 253 22930 41
## 254 20338 31
## 255 20428 35
## Pennsylvania...all.industrial East.North.Central...all.sectors
## 253 312 56998
## 254 309 49234
## 255 329 46990
## East.North.Central...electric.utility
## 253 19855
## 254 16596
## 255 14549
## East.North.Central...independent.power.producers
## 253 36049
## 254 31662
## 255 31393
## East.North.Central...all.commercial East.North.Central...all.industrial
## 253 161 933
## 254 124 852
## 255 130 918
## Illinois...all.sectors Illinois...electric.utility
## 253 17542 527
## 254 15237 244
## 255 15374 195
## Illinois...independent.power.producers Illinois...all.commercial
## 253 16764 42
## 254 14755 29
## 255 14926 24
## Illinois...all.industrial Indiana...all.sectors Indiana...electric.utility
## 253 209 9078 5688
## 254 209 8345 5194
## 255 229 7391 4316
## Indiana...independent.power.producers Indiana...all.commercial
## 253 2990 23
## 254 2802 10
## 255 2683 20
## Indiana...all.industrial Michigan...all.sectors Michigan...electric.utility
## 253 377 10820 7278
## 254 340 8602 5512
## 255 372 8487 5323
## Michigan...independent.power.producers Michigan...all.commercial
## 253 3351 65
## 254 2922 58
## 255 2993 55
## Michigan...all.industrial Ohio...all.sectors Ohio...electric.utility
## 253 125 13310 1350
## 254 111 11480 1189
## 255 116 10943 1053
## Ohio...independent.power.producers Ohio...all.commercial
## 253 11868 18
## 254 10206 17
## 255 9802 18
## Ohio...all.industrial Wisconsin...all.sectors Wisconsin...electric.utility
## 253 75 6249 5013
## 254 70 5569 4457
## 255 70 4795 3662
## Wisconsin...independent.power.producers Wisconsin...all.commercial
## 253 1077 13
## 254 978 11
## 255 990 12
## Wisconsin...all.industrial West.North.Central...all.sectors
## 253 147 36145
## 254 124 31809
## 255 131 31919
## West.North.Central...electric.utility
## 253 27109
## 254 23085
## 255 22270
## West.North.Central...independent.power.producers
## 253 8639
## 254 8372
## 255 9262
## West.North.Central...all.commercial West.North.Central...all.industrial
## 253 68 330
## 254 57 296
## 255 56 331
## Iowa...all.sectors Iowa...electric.utility
## 253 6596 5277
## 254 6014 4788
## 255 5997 4691
## Iowa...independent.power.producers Iowa...all.commercial
## 253 1128 17
## 254 1063 11
## 255 1115 17
## Iowa...all.industrial Kansas...all.sectors Kansas...electric.utility
## 253 174 5464 3088
## 254 151 5099 2674
## 255 174 5240 2471
## Kansas...independent.power.producers Kansas...all.commercial
## 253 2364 NM
## 254 2413 NM
## 255 2756 NM
## Kansas...all.industrial Minnesota...all.sectors
## 253 11 6256
## 254 11 5205
## 255 11 4879
## Minnesota...electric.utility Minnesota...independent.power.producers
## 253 4558 1583
## 254 3705 1391
## 255 3317 1453
## Minnesota...all.commercial Minnesota...all.industrial
## 253 31 84
## 254 28 82
## 255 20 88
## Missouri...all.sectors Missouri...electric.utility
## 253 7970 7229
## 254 6631 5949
## 255 6588 5893
## Missouri...independent.power.producers Missouri...all.commercial
## 253 718 17
## 254 663 15
## 255 674 16
## Missouri...all.industrial Nebraska...all.sectors
## 253 6 3680
## 254 5 3368
## 255 5 3458
## Nebraska...electric.utility Nebraska...independent.power.producers
## 253 2575 1065
## 254 2267 1067
## 255 2136 1283
## Nebraska...all.commercial Nebraska...all.industrial
## 253 2 38
## 254 2 32
## 255 2 37
## North.Dakota...all.sectors North.Dakota...electric.utility
## 253 4378 3368
## 254 3800 2821
## 255 3916 2839
## North.Dakota...independent.power.producers North.Dakota...all.commercial
## 253 996 0
## 254 966 0
## 255 1064 0
## North.Dakota...all.industrial South.Dakota...all.sectors
## 253 NM 1800
## 254 NM 1692
## 255 13 1841
## South.Dakota...electric.utility South.Dakota...independent.power.producers
## 253 1014 784
## 254 881 809
## 255 923 916
## South.Dakota...all.commercial South.Dakota...all.industrial
## 253 NM NM
## 254 NM NM
## 255 NM NM
## South.Atlantic...all.sectors South.Atlantic...electric.utility
## 253 72042 59865
## 254 58834 48772
## 255 59886 48382
## South.Atlantic...independent.power.producers
## 253 10472
## 254 8552
## 255 9942
## South.Atlantic...all.commercial South.Atlantic...all.industrial
## 253 183 1522
## 254 163 1347
## 255 125 1437
## Delaware...all.sectors Delaware...electric.utility
## 253 300 3
## 254 294 2
## 255 206 2
## Delaware...independent.power.producers Delaware...all.commercial
## 253 230 1
## 254 239 1
## 255 131 1
## Delaware...all.industrial District.Of.Columbia...all.sectors
## 253 66 14
## 254 53 13
## 255 72 19
## District.Of.Columbia...electric.utility
## 253 --
## 254 --
## 255 --
## District.Of.Columbia...independent.power.producers
## 253 NM
## 254 2
## 255 2
## District.Of.Columbia...all.commercial District.Of.Columbia...all.industrial
## 253 13 --
## 254 11 --
## 255 16 --
## Florida...all.sectors Florida...electric.utility
## 253 19566 18127
## 254 17317 16054
## 255 18893 17567
## Florida...independent.power.producers Florida...all.commercial
## 253 1007 37
## 254 886 30
## 255 904 31
## Florida...all.industrial Georgia...all.sectors Georgia...electric.utility
## 253 395 11457 9373
## 254 347 9216 7412
## 255 391 9228 7412
## Georgia...independent.power.producers Georgia...all.commercial
## 253 1640 NM
## 254 1407 NM
## 255 1389 NM
## Georgia...all.industrial Maryland...all.sectors Maryland...electric.utility
## 253 444 3434 193
## 254 398 2192 250
## 255 427 3149 395
## Maryland...independent.power.producers Maryland...all.commercial
## 253 3151 86
## 254 1860 78
## 255 2720 29
## Maryland...all.industrial North.Carolina...all.sectors
## 253 4 13047
## 254 4 10552
## 255 6 9595
## North.Carolina...electric.utility
## 253 11470
## 254 8963
## 255 7874
## North.Carolina...independent.power.producers
## 253 1397
## 254 1423
## 255 1564
## North.Carolina...all.commercial North.Carolina...all.industrial
## 253 25 155
## 254 21 145
## 255 20 137
## South.Carolina...all.sectors South.Carolina...electric.utility
## 253 9109 8688
## 254 7254 6846
## 255 8280 7815
## South.Carolina...independent.power.producers
## 253 266
## 254 278
## 255 336
## South.Carolina...all.commercial South.Carolina...all.industrial
## 253 0 155
## 254 0 131
## 255 0 129
## Virginia...all.sectors Virginia...electric.utility
## 253 8338 6885
## 254 7230 5929
## 255 7125 5457
## Virginia...independent.power.producers Virginia...all.commercial
## 253 1237 22
## 254 1100 20
## 255 1465 28
## Virginia...all.industrial West.Virginia...all.sectors
## 253 194 6777
## 254 182 4766
## 255 176 3392
## West.Virginia...electric.utility
## 253 5126
## 254 3319
## 255 1862
## West.Virginia...independent.power.producers West.Virginia...all.commercial
## 253 1543 --
## 254 1358 --
## 255 1431 --
## West.Virginia...all.industrial East.South.Central...all.sectors
## 253 108 34609
## 254 89 28501
## 255 99 27058
## East.South.Central...electric.utility
## 253 30077
## 254 25047
## 255 23226
## East.South.Central...independent.power.producers
## 253 3731
## 254 2752
## 255 3063
## East.South.Central...all.commercial East.South.Central...all.industrial
## 253 19 781
## 254 15 687
## 255 19 750
## Alabama...all.sectors Alabama...electric.utility
## 253 13000 9295
## 254 11088 8313
## 255 11055 7982
## Alabama...independent.power.producers Alabama...all.commercial
## 253 3327 --
## 254 2414 --
## 255 2692 --
## Alabama...all.industrial Kentucky...all.sectors Kentucky...electric.utility
## 253 377 6918 6700
## 254 360 5486 5410
## 255 380 4982 4931
## Kentucky...independent.power.producers Kentucky...all.commercial
## 253 173 --
## 254 36 --
## 255 10 --
## Kentucky...all.industrial Mississippi...all.sectors
## 253 45 6643
## 254 40 5157
## 255 41 4420
## Mississippi...electric.utility Mississippi...independent.power.producers
## 253 6272 198
## 254 4751 268
## 255 3952 303
## Mississippi...all.commercial Mississippi...all.industrial
## 253 0 173
## 254 0 139
## 255 0 164
## Tennessee...all.sectors Tennessee...electric.utility
## 253 8049 7810
## 254 6770 6573
## 255 6601 6360
## Tennessee...independent.power.producers Tennessee...all.commercial
## 253 33 19
## 254 34 15
## 255 58 19
## Tennessee...all.industrial West.South.Central...all.sectors
## 253 186 64818
## 254 148 58264
## 255 164 56128
## West.South.Central...electric.utility
## 253 21629
## 254 18557
## 255 16719
## West.South.Central...independent.power.producers
## 253 36354
## 254 33882
## 255 33331
## West.South.Central...all.commercial West.South.Central...all.industrial
## 253 65 6771
## 254 60 5765
## 255 59 6019
## Arkansas...all.sectors Arkansas...electric.utility
## 253 6340 5595
## 254 5031 4364
## 255 5343 4651
## Arkansas...independent.power.producers Arkansas...all.commercial
## 253 629 NM
## 254 558 NM
## 255 581 NM
## Arkansas...all.industrial Louisiana...all.sectors
## 253 110 9333
## 254 104 8100
## 255 108 7615
## Louisiana...electric.utility Louisiana...independent.power.producers
## 253 5920 677
## 254 5072 663
## 255 4772 330
## Louisiana...all.commercial Louisiana...all.industrial
## 253 15 2721
## 254 14 2350
## 255 15 2498
## Oklahoma...all.sectors Oklahoma...electric.utility
## 253 6946 3103
## 254 6515 2701
## 255 6188 2139
## Oklahoma...independent.power.producers Oklahoma...all.commercial
## 253 3762 0
## 254 3741 0
## 255 3969 0
## Oklahoma...all.industrial Texas...all.sectors Texas...electric.utility
## 253 81 42199 7010
## 254 73 38619 6420
## 255 80 36982 5157
## Texas...independent.power.producers Texas...all.commercial
## 253 31286 45
## 254 28919 41
## 255 28451 41
## Texas...all.industrial Mountain...all.sectors Mountain...electric.utility
## 253 3858 31345 22582
## 254 3238 27720 19431
## 255 3334 28702 19856
## Mountain...independent.power.producers Mountain...all.commercial
## 253 8401 106
## 254 7975 94
## 255 8498 97
## Mountain...all.industrial Arizona...all.sectors Arizona...electric.utility
## 253 256 7739 6421
## 254 221 7211 5756
## 255 252 7705 6221
## Arizona...independent.power.producers Arizona...all.commercial
## 253 1306 13
## 254 1444 11
## 255 1471 13
## Arizona...all.industrial Colorado...all.sectors Colorado...electric.utility
## 253 -- 4886 3534
## 254 -- 4399 3073
## 255 -- 4646 3115
## Colorado...independent.power.producers Colorado...all.commercial
## 253 1332 2
## 254 1306 2
## 255 1508 2
## Colorado...all.industrial Idaho...all.sectors Idaho...electric.utility
## 253 19 1799 1214
## 254 18 1530 1018
## 255 20 1460 929
## Idaho...independent.power.producers Idaho...all.commercial
## 253 530 6
## 254 461 5
## 255 476 6
## Idaho...all.industrial Montana...all.sectors Montana...electric.utility
## 253 48 2789 1237
## 254 46 2330 1017
## 255 49 2560 1091
## Montana...independent.power.producers Montana...all.commercial
## 253 1549 --
## 254 1311 --
## 255 1467 --
## Montana...all.industrial Nevada...all.sectors Nevada...electric.utility
## 253 NM 3119 1887
## 254 NM 2788 1590
## 255 NM 3006 1725
## Nevada...independent.power.producers Nevada...all.commercial
## 253 1153 65
## 254 1127 57
## 255 1204 57
## Nevada...all.industrial New.Mexico...all.sectors
## 253 14 3640
## 254 14 2939
## 255 21 2958
## New.Mexico...electric.utility New.Mexico...independent.power.producers
## 253 2054 1576
## 254 1525 1404
## 255 1533 1413
## New.Mexico...all.commercial New.Mexico...all.industrial Utah...all.sectors
## 253 9 0 3311
## 254 NM 0 2855
## 255 NM 2 2542
## Utah...electric.utility Utah...independent.power.producers
## 253 2919 342
## 254 2440 370
## 255 2085 413
## Utah...all.commercial Utah...all.industrial Wyoming...all.sectors
## 253 NM 38 4062
## 254 NM 35 3669
## 255 NM 36 3825
## Wyoming...electric.utility Wyoming...independent.power.producers
## 253 3316 613
## 254 3011 552
## 255 3157 546
## Wyoming...all.commercial Wyoming...all.industrial
## 253 -- 133
## 254 -- 107
## 255 -- 121
## Pacific.Contiguous...all.sectors Pacific.Contiguous...electric.utility
## 253 32707 20117
## 254 29316 17182
## 255 30615 17327
## Pacific.Contiguous...independent.power.producers
## 253 11103
## 254 10787
## 255 11779
## Pacific.Contiguous...all.commercial Pacific.Contiguous...all.industrial
## 253 213 1275
## 254 191 1157
## 255 214 1294
## California...all.sectors California...electric.utility
## 253 14642 5001
## 254 13548 4382
## 255 14883 4471
## California...independent.power.producers California...all.commercial
## 253 8390 204
## 254 8025 182
## 255 9130 205
## California...all.industrial Oregon...all.sectors Oregon...electric.utility
## 253 1048 6438 4810
## 254 960 5736 4091
## 255 1077 5710 4116
## Oregon...independent.power.producers Oregon...all.commercial
## 253 1566 5
## 254 1594 6
## 255 1535 6
## Oregon...all.industrial Washington...all.sectors
## 253 58 11627
## 254 45 10032
## 255 53 10022
## Washington...electric.utility Washington...independent.power.producers
## 253 10306 1147
## 254 8709 1169
## 255 8740 1114
## Washington...all.commercial Washington...all.industrial
## 253 3 170
## 254 3 152
## 255 3 164
## Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.sectors
## 253 1330
## 254 1152
## 255 1232
## Pacific.Noncontiguous...electric.utility
## 253 967
## 254 800
## 255 820
## Pacific.Noncontiguous...independent.power.producers
## 253 265
## 254 268
## 255 328
## Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.commercial
## 253 67
## 254 55
## 255 57
## Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.industrial Alaska...all.sectors
## 253 31 584
## 254 28 474
## 255 27 467
## Alaska...electric.utility Alaska...independent.power.producers
## 253 524 NM
## 254 416 21
## 255 409 23
## Alaska...all.commercial Alaska...all.industrial Hawaii...all.sectors
## 253 32 10 745
## 254 26 11 677
## 255 25 10 765
## Hawaii...electric.utility Hawaii...independent.power.producers
## 253 443 246
## 254 384 247
## 255 412 306
## Hawaii...all.commercial Hawaii...all.industrial
## 253 35 21
## 254 29 17
## 255 32 16As we can see that the data contains the energy used in All cities in America and the sum of the whole. In this project, we will be making a model to predict the energy consumption for the country.
4 Data Wrangling
let’s check the data type
glimpse(Energy)## Rows: 255
## Columns: 311
## $ X <chr> "2001-01-01", "200…
## $ United.States...all.sectors <int> 332493, 282940, 30…
## $ United.States...electric.utility <int> 236467, 199802, 21…
## $ United.States...independent.power.producers <int> 82269, 71169, 7575…
## $ United.States...all.commercial <int> 629, 548, 553, 550…
## $ United.States...all.industrial <int> 13128, 11421, 1245…
## $ New.England...all.sectors <int> 10005, 8662, 9506,…
## $ New.England...electric.utility <int> 2467, 2289, 2061, …
## $ New.England...independent.power.producers <int> 6959, 5873, 6882, …
## $ New.England...all.commercial <int> 68, 65, 70, 70, 72…
## $ New.England...all.industrial <int> 510, 435, 493, 443…
## $ Connecticut...all.sectors <int> 2930, 1853, 2386, …
## $ Connecticut...electric.utility <chr> "1411", "661", "69…
## $ Connecticut...independent.power.producers <int> 1503, 1178, 1673, …
## $ Connecticut...all.commercial <chr> "2", "2", "3", "3"…
## $ Connecticut...all.industrial <int> 14, 11, 16, 21, 22…
## $ Maine...all.sectors <int> 1648, 1463, 1503, …
## $ Maine...electric.utility <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Maine...independent.power.producers <int> 1213, 1092, 1088, …
## $ Maine...all.commercial <int> 12, 13, 12, 16, 17…
## $ Maine...all.industrial <int> 424, 358, 404, 360…
## $ Massachusetts...all.sectors <int> 3802, 3146, 3597, …
## $ Massachusetts...electric.utility <chr> "146", "97", "167"…
## $ Massachusetts...independent.power.producers <int> 3571, 2969, 3343, …
## $ Massachusetts...all.commercial <int> 47, 45, 49, 44, 44…
## $ Massachusetts...all.industrial <int> 38, 34, 38, 30, 26…
## $ New.Hampshire...all.sectors <int> 652, 1280, 958, 14…
## $ New.Hampshire...electric.utility <int> 446, 1123, 795, 11…
## $ New.Hampshire...independent.power.producers <int> 173, 126, 128, 207…
## $ New.Hampshire...all.commercial <int> 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, …
## $ New.Hampshire...all.industrial <int> 30, 28, 33, 29, 30…
## $ Rhode.Island...all.sectors <int> 424, 444, 590, 451…
## $ Rhode.Island...electric.utility <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Rhode.Island...independent.power.producers <int> 420, 440, 585, 448…
## $ Rhode.Island...all.commercial <chr> "3", "3", "4", "3"…
## $ Rhode.Island...all.industrial <chr> "0", "0", "0", "0"…
## $ Vermont...all.sectors <int> 548, 478, 472, 467…
## $ Vermont...electric.utility <int> 464, 407, 404, 374…
## $ Vermont...independent.power.producers <int> 80, 68, 64, 90, 79…
## $ Vermont...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Vermont...all.industrial <chr> "4", "3", "3", "3"…
## $ Middle.Atlantic...all.sectors <int> 36792, 31219, 3390…
## $ Middle.Atlantic...electric.utility <int> 8428, 7254, 8014, …
## $ Middle.Atlantic...independent.power.producers <int> 27519, 23202, 2504…
## $ Middle.Atlantic...all.commercial <int> 100, 87, 87, 89, 9…
## $ Middle.Atlantic...all.industrial <int> 745, 676, 753, 672…
## $ New.Jersey...all.sectors <int> 5306, 4706, 4947, …
## $ New.Jersey...electric.utility <chr> "195", "146", "122…
## $ New.Jersey...independent.power.producers <int> 4815, 4290, 4547, …
## $ New.Jersey...all.commercial <int> 14, 13, 14, 12, 13…
## $ New.Jersey...all.industrial <int> 282, 257, 265, 242…
## $ New.York...all.sectors <int> 12622, 11460, 1211…
## $ New.York...electric.utility <int> 5795, 4891, 5373, …
## $ New.York...independent.power.producers <int> 6606, 6370, 6524, …
## $ New.York...all.commercial <chr> "48", "43", "46", …
## $ New.York...all.industrial <int> 173, 155, 171, 153…
## $ Pennsylvania...all.sectors <int> 18864, 15053, 1684…
## $ Pennsylvania...electric.utility <int> 2437, 2217, 2520, …
## $ Pennsylvania...independent.power.producers <int> 16098, 12542, 1397…
## $ Pennsylvania...all.commercial <int> 38, 31, 27, 35, 32…
## $ Pennsylvania...all.industrial <int> 290, 264, 317, 277…
## $ East.North.Central...all.sectors <int> 55695, 48200, 5137…
## $ East.North.Central...electric.utility <int> 39970, 34347, 3613…
## $ East.North.Central...independent.power.producers <int> 14658, 12900, 1419…
## $ East.North.Central...all.commercial <int> 74, 67, 71, 63, 64…
## $ East.North.Central...all.industrial <int> 994, 886, 981, 967…
## $ Illinois...all.sectors <int> 16039, 13914, 1488…
## $ Illinois...electric.utility <int> 2854, 2378, 2239, …
## $ Illinois...independent.power.producers <int> 12923, 11319, 1239…
## $ Illinois...all.commercial <int> 21, 19, 20, 18, 21…
## $ Illinois...all.industrial <int> 241, 198, 230, 220…
## $ Indiana...all.sectors <int> 10947, 9661, 9951,…
## $ Indiana...electric.utility <int> 10335, 9051, 9320,…
## $ Indiana...independent.power.producers <int> 304, 301, 289, 245…
## $ Indiana...all.commercial <int> 19, 18, 16, 17, 13…
## $ Indiana...all.industrial <int> 289, 291, 326, 349…
## $ Michigan...all.sectors <int> 10183, 8871, 9681,…
## $ Michigan...electric.utility <int> 9154, 7933, 8610, …
## $ Michigan...independent.power.producers <int> 877, 813, 926, 816…
## $ Michigan...all.commercial <int> 19, 17, 20, 18, 20…
## $ Michigan...all.industrial <int> 133, 107, 125, 117…
## $ Ohio...all.sectors <int> 13163, 11162, 1210…
## $ Ohio...electric.utility <int> 12531, 10669, 1154…
## $ Ohio...independent.power.producers <int> 512, 395, 458, 195…
## $ Ohio...all.commercial <chr> "2", "1", "2", "1"…
## $ Ohio...all.industrial <int> 118, 97, 103, 95, …
## $ Wisconsin...all.sectors <int> 5364, 4594, 4755, …
## $ Wisconsin...electric.utility <int> 5097, 4316, 4419, …
## $ Wisconsin...independent.power.producers <int> 41, 73, 127, 33, 3…
## $ Wisconsin...all.commercial <int> 13, 11, 13, 9, 9, …
## $ Wisconsin...all.industrial <int> 213, 194, 197, 186…
## $ West.North.Central...all.sectors <int> 25600, 22084, 2201…
## $ West.North.Central...electric.utility <int> 25026, 21578, 2150…
## $ West.North.Central...independent.power.producers <int> 238, 204, 180, 245…
## $ West.North.Central...all.commercial <int> 36, 33, 32, 31, 36…
## $ West.North.Central...all.industrial <int> 300, 269, 293, 258…
## $ Iowa...all.sectors <int> 3761, 3244, 3576, …
## $ Iowa...electric.utility <int> 3590, 3095, 3419, …
## $ Iowa...independent.power.producers <int> 59, 47, 52, 68, 62…
## $ Iowa...all.commercial <int> 13, 12, 10, 8, 12,…
## $ Iowa...all.industrial <int> 99, 90, 96, 76, 82…
## $ Kansas...all.sectors <int> 4108, 3274, 3340, …
## $ Kansas...electric.utility <int> 4105, 3271, 3336, …
## $ Kansas...independent.power.producers <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Kansas...all.commercial <chr> "0", "0", "0", "0"…
## $ Kansas...all.industrial <chr> "3", "3", "3", "3"…
## $ Minnesota...all.sectors <int> 4333, 3840, 3663, …
## $ Minnesota...electric.utility <int> 3984, 3531, 3371, …
## $ Minnesota...independent.power.producers <int> 178, 157, 128, 177…
## $ Minnesota...all.commercial <int> 12, 11, 11, 11, 11…
## $ Minnesota...all.industrial <int> 158, 142, 153, 140…
## $ Missouri...all.sectors <int> 7120, 6216, 5891, …
## $ Missouri...electric.utility <int> 7092, 6189, 5864, …
## $ Missouri...independent.power.producers <chr> "--", "--", "0", "…
## $ Missouri...all.commercial <int> 9, 8, 10, 11, 11, …
## $ Missouri...all.industrial <int> 20, 18, 17, 16, 16…
## $ Nebraska...all.sectors <int> 2899, 2425, 2250, …
## $ Nebraska...electric.utility <int> 2893, 2418, 2243, …
## $ Nebraska...independent.power.producers <int> 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, …
## $ Nebraska...all.commercial <int> 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, …
## $ Nebraska...all.industrial <int> 4, 5, 5, 3, 5, 5, …
## $ North.Dakota...all.sectors <int> 2751, 2514, 2690, …
## $ North.Dakota...electric.utility <int> 2734, 2502, 2670, …
## $ North.Dakota...independent.power.producers <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ North.Dakota...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ North.Dakota...all.industrial <chr> "16", "12", "20", …
## $ South.Dakota...all.sectors <int> 628, 572, 601, 447…
## $ South.Dakota...electric.utility <int> 628, 572, 601, 447…
## $ South.Dakota...independent.power.producers <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ South.Dakota...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ South.Dakota...all.industrial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ South.Atlantic...all.sectors <int> 67187, 54571, 5851…
## $ South.Atlantic...electric.utility <int> 54761, 43905, 4841…
## $ South.Atlantic...independent.power.producers <int> 10533, 9051, 8371,…
## $ South.Atlantic...all.commercial <int> 93, 54, 51, 47, 52…
## $ South.Atlantic...all.industrial <int> 1799, 1561, 1670, …
## $ Delaware...all.sectors <int> 626, 521, 867, 577…
## $ Delaware...electric.utility <int> 373, 332, 330, 301…
## $ Delaware...independent.power.producers <int> 205, 150, 481, 232…
## $ Delaware...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Delaware...all.industrial <int> 48, 39, 55, 44, 39…
## $ District.Of.Columbia...all.sectors <chr> "9", "0", "0", "1"…
## $ District.Of.Columbia...electric.utility <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ District.Of.Columbia...independent.power.producers <chr> "9", "0", "0", "1"…
## $ District.Of.Columbia...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ District.Of.Columbia...all.industrial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Florida...all.sectors <int> 16937, 12761, 1411…
## $ Florida...electric.utility <int> 15251, 11369, 1255…
## $ Florida...independent.power.producers <int> 1257, 1010, 1165, …
## $ Florida...all.commercial <chr> "10", "8", "9", "8…
## $ Florida...all.industrial <int> 419, 375, 386, 413…
## $ Georgia...all.sectors <int> 11084, 8332, 9844,…
## $ Georgia...electric.utility <int> 10510, 7825, 9345,…
## $ Georgia...independent.power.producers <int> 70, 54, 43, 168, 1…
## $ Georgia...all.commercial <chr> "0", "0", "0", "0"…
## $ Georgia...all.industrial <int> 504, 452, 456, 459…
## $ Maryland...all.sectors <int> 4603, 4182, 3597, …
## $ Maryland...electric.utility <chr> "19", "1", "51", "…
## $ Maryland...independent.power.producers <int> 4576, 4174, 3539, …
## $ Maryland...all.commercial <int> 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, …
## $ Maryland...all.industrial <int> 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, …
## $ North.Carolina...all.sectors <int> 10512, 8862, 9303,…
## $ North.Carolina...electric.utility <int> 9839, 8284, 8643, …
## $ North.Carolina...independent.power.producers <int> 356, 298, 315, 332…
## $ North.Carolina...all.commercial <int> 14, 11, 8, 3, 5, 7…
## $ North.Carolina...all.industrial <int> 303, 270, 338, 301…
## $ South.Carolina...all.sectors <int> 7646, 6638, 7385, …
## $ South.Carolina...electric.utility <int> 7432, 6484, 7231, …
## $ South.Carolina...independent.power.producers <int> 46, 45, 42, 39, 35…
## $ South.Carolina...all.commercial <chr> "5", "4", "5", "3"…
## $ South.Carolina...all.industrial <int> 162, 104, 108, 114…
## $ Virginia...all.sectors <int> 7117, 5894, 6358, …
## $ Virginia...electric.utility <int> 5826, 4906, 5288, …
## $ Virginia...independent.power.producers <int> 1013, 784, 870, 63…
## $ Virginia...all.commercial <int> 62, 28, 27, 31, 31…
## $ Virginia...all.industrial <int> 216, 177, 173, 151…
## $ West.Virginia...all.sectors <int> 8653, 7381, 7041, …
## $ West.Virginia...electric.utility <int> 5512, 4704, 4976, …
## $ West.Virginia...independent.power.producers <int> 2999, 2537, 1915, …
## $ West.Virginia...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ West.Virginia...all.industrial <int> 143, 140, 150, 124…
## $ East.South.Central...all.sectors <int> 32115, 27307, 2940…
## $ East.South.Central...electric.utility <int> 29979, 25454, 2736…
## $ East.South.Central...independent.power.producers <int> 1102, 1031, 1167, …
## $ East.South.Central...all.commercial <chr> "9", "9", "9", "8"…
## $ East.South.Central...all.industrial <int> 1025, 813, 856, 85…
## $ Alabama...all.sectors <int> 11327, 9576, 9364,…
## $ Alabama...electric.utility <int> 10695, 9070, 8829,…
## $ Alabama...independent.power.producers <int> 48, 45, 47, 24, 50…
## $ Alabama...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Alabama...all.industrial <int> 583, 461, 489, 496…
## $ Kentucky...all.sectors <int> 8118, 7534, 8202, …
## $ Kentucky...electric.utility <int> 7058, 6562, 7208, …
## $ Kentucky...independent.power.producers <chr> "1043", "956", "97…
## $ Kentucky...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Kentucky...all.industrial <int> 18, 16, 16, 15, 16…
## $ Mississippi...all.sectors <int> 3564, 2743, 3643, …
## $ Mississippi...electric.utility <int> 3376, 2578, 3371, …
## $ Mississippi...independent.power.producers <int> 8, 28, 141, 142, 2…
## $ Mississippi...all.commercial <int> 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, …
## $ Mississippi...all.industrial <int> 179, 136, 130, 141…
## $ Tennessee...all.sectors <int> 9106, 7454, 8193, …
## $ Tennessee...electric.utility <int> 8851, 7244, 7961, …
## $ Tennessee...independent.power.producers <int> 2, 2, 2, 8, 16, 29…
## $ Tennessee...all.commercial <chr> "8", "9", "8", "7"…
## $ Tennessee...all.industrial <int> 245, 200, 221, 203…
## $ West.South.Central...all.sectors <int> 46990, 39136, 4083…
## $ West.South.Central...electric.utility <int> 34843, 28424, 2935…
## $ West.South.Central...independent.power.producers <int> 6424, 5604, 5892, …
## $ West.South.Central...all.commercial <int> 41, 36, 41, 43, 44…
## $ West.South.Central...all.industrial <int> 5684, 5072, 5546, …
## $ Arkansas...all.sectors <int> 3903, 3372, 3125, …
## $ Arkansas...electric.utility <int> 3704, 3200, 2958, …
## $ Arkansas...independent.power.producers <int> 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, …
## $ Arkansas...all.commercial <chr> "1", "1", "1", "1"…
## $ Arkansas...all.industrial <int> 199, 171, 166, 184…
## $ Louisiana...all.sectors <int> 7595, 6105, 6321, …
## $ Louisiana...electric.utility <int> 4599, 3175, 3348, …
## $ Louisiana...independent.power.producers <int> 1158, 1184, 1145, …
## $ Louisiana...all.commercial <chr> "2", "2", "2", "2"…
## $ Louisiana...all.industrial <int> 1837, 1744, 1826, …
## $ Oklahoma...all.sectors <int> 4491, 4033, 3808, …
## $ Oklahoma...electric.utility <int> 4090, 3691, 3568, …
## $ Oklahoma...independent.power.producers <int> 287, 242, 151, 128…
## $ Oklahoma...all.commercial <chr> "2", "2", "2", "2"…
## $ Oklahoma...all.industrial <int> 112, 98, 87, 102, …
## $ Texas...all.sectors <int> 31001, 25627, 2758…
## $ Texas...electric.utility <int> 22450, 18357, 1948…
## $ Texas...independent.power.producers <int> 4979, 4178, 4596, …
## $ Texas...all.commercial <int> 36, 32, 36, 38, 40…
## $ Texas...all.industrial <int> 3537, 3059, 3466, …
## $ Mountain...all.sectors <int> 27506, 25227, 2587…
## $ Mountain...electric.utility <int> 24203, 22107, 2285…
## $ Mountain...independent.power.producers <int> 3050, 2881, 2748, …
## $ Mountain...all.commercial <int> 25, 25, 29, 25, 25…
## $ Mountain...all.industrial <int> 229, 215, 234, 205…
## $ Arizona...all.sectors <int> 7574, 6617, 7326, …
## $ Arizona...electric.utility <int> 7499, 6547, 7252, …
## $ Arizona...independent.power.producers <int> 41, 37, 41, 39, 24…
## $ Arizona...all.commercial <int> 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, …
## $ Arizona...all.industrial <chr> "33", "31", "31", …
## $ Colorado...all.sectors <int> 4163, 3777, 3842, …
## $ Colorado...electric.utility <int> 3664, 3281, 3344, …
## $ Colorado...independent.power.producers <int> 477, 473, 470, 489…
## $ Colorado...all.commercial <chr> "17", "17", "20", …
## $ Colorado...all.industrial <int> 6, 6, 7, 6, 7, 7, …
## $ Idaho...all.sectors <int> 605, 503, 595, 622…
## $ Idaho...electric.utility <int> 505, 410, 486, 494…
## $ Idaho...independent.power.producers <int> 35, 33, 39, 60, 12…
## $ Idaho...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Idaho...all.industrial <int> 65, 60, 71, 68, 64…
## $ Montana...all.sectors <int> 2301, 2105, 1921, …
## $ Montana...electric.utility <int> 453, 459, 310, 283…
## $ Montana...independent.power.producers <int> 1841, 1639, 1604, …
## $ Montana...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Montana...all.industrial <chr> "7", "7", "7", "6"…
## $ Nevada...all.sectors <int> 2966, 2969, 3040, …
## $ Nevada...electric.utility <int> 2461, 2417, 2596, …
## $ Nevada...independent.power.producers <int> 504, 552, 444, 261…
## $ Nevada...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Nevada...all.industrial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ New.Mexico...all.sectors <int> 2919, 2713, 2617, …
## $ New.Mexico...electric.utility <int> 2787, 2578, 2484, …
## $ New.Mexico...independent.power.producers <int> 93, 95, 90, 86, 79…
## $ New.Mexico...all.commercial <chr> "5", "5", "5", "5"…
## $ New.Mexico...all.industrial <int> 34, 35, 38, 38, 38…
## $ Utah...all.sectors <int> 2957, 2796, 2435, …
## $ Utah...electric.utility <int> 2899, 2742, 2369, …
## $ Utah...independent.power.producers <int> 35, 31, 39, 22, 26…
## $ Utah...all.commercial <chr> "1", "1", "1", "1"…
## $ Utah...all.industrial <chr> "23", "22", "27", …
## $ Wyoming...all.sectors <int> 4021, 3747, 4093, …
## $ Wyoming...electric.utility <int> 3935, 3673, 4020, …
## $ Wyoming...independent.power.producers <int> 24, 21, 21, 12, 15…
## $ Wyoming...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Wyoming...all.industrial <int> 61, 53, 53, 31, 38…
## $ Pacific.Contiguous...all.sectors <int> 29087, 25186, 2783…
## $ Pacific.Contiguous...electric.utility <int> 15774, 13566, 1519…
## $ Pacific.Contiguous...independent.power.producers <int> 11446, 10106, 1099…
## $ Pacific.Contiguous...all.commercial <int> 173, 154, 146, 166…
## $ Pacific.Contiguous...all.industrial <int> 1694, 1360, 1494, …
## $ California...all.sectors <int> 16619, 14380, 1584…
## $ California...electric.utility <int> 5187, 4415, 5119, …
## $ California...independent.power.producers <int> 9798, 8603, 9301, …
## $ California...all.commercial <int> 163, 145, 136, 155…
## $ California...all.industrial <int> 1470, 1217, 1293, …
## $ Oregon...all.sectors <int> 4150, 3718, 4209, …
## $ Oregon...electric.utility <int> 3658, 3309, 3714, …
## $ Oregon...independent.power.producers <int> 398, 367, 407, 410…
## $ Oregon...all.commercial <int> 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, …
## $ Oregon...all.industrial <int> 94, 41, 86, 69, 70…
## $ Washington...all.sectors <int> 8318, 7088, 7776, …
## $ Washington...electric.utility <int> 6929, 5842, 6360, …
## $ Washington...independent.power.producers <int> 1250, 1136, 1291, …
## $ Washington...all.commercial <int> 9, 8, 9, 10, 9, 8,…
## $ Washington...all.industrial <int> 131, 102, 115, 116…
## $ Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.sectors <int> 1515, 1347, 1460, …
## $ Pacific.Noncontiguous...electric.utility <int> 1017, 880, 1032, 9…
## $ Pacific.Noncontiguous...independent.power.producers <int> 340, 315, 276, 294…
## $ Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.commercial <int> 10, 18, 18, 9, 8, …
## $ Pacific.Noncontiguous...all.industrial <int> 148, 134, 134, 97,…
## $ Alaska...all.sectors <int> 590, 546, 587, 489…
## $ Alaska...electric.utility <int> 493, 423, 459, 402…
## $ Alaska...independent.power.producers <chr> "20", "22", "23", …
## $ Alaska...all.commercial <chr> "10", "18", "18", …
## $ Alaska...all.industrial <int> 67, 84, 88, 61, 65…
## $ Hawaii...all.sectors <int> 925, 801, 873, 836…
## $ Hawaii...electric.utility <int> 524, 457, 573, 522…
## $ Hawaii...independent.power.producers <int> 320, 293, 254, 278…
## $ Hawaii...all.commercial <chr> "--", "--", "--", …
## $ Hawaii...all.industrial <int> 81, 51, 46, 36, 37…from the data type above, we can see that there are many variables stating the energy consumption, along with each type of energy used in several different cities of US of A. Hence, we will only pick the X which later will we change the name to Date as the column stating the Date. Also, the sum of the all energy consumed in the country, which is the name of the current variable is United States All Sector, will also be renamed into US Energy Consumption. The numbers stated in all observations are in thousand megawatts hours.
Energy_clean <- Energy |>
rename(
Date = X,
US_Energy_Consumption = United.States...all.sectors
) |>
mutate(Date = ymd(Date)) |>
select(c(Date, US_Energy_Consumption))
Energy_clean## Date US_Energy_Consumption
## 1 2001-01-01 332493
## 2 2001-02-01 282940
## 3 2001-03-01 300707
## 4 2001-04-01 278079
## 5 2001-05-01 300492
## 6 2001-06-01 327694
## 7 2001-07-01 357614
## 8 2001-08-01 370533
## 9 2001-09-01 306929
## 10 2001-10-01 294734
## 11 2001-11-01 278934
## 12 2001-12-01 305496
## 13 2002-01-01 319941
## 14 2002-02-01 281826
## 15 2002-03-01 302549
## 16 2002-04-01 289848
## 17 2002-05-01 307675
## 18 2002-06-01 341023
## 19 2002-07-01 381542
## 20 2002-08-01 374586
## 21 2002-09-01 331279
## 22 2002-10-01 307059
## 23 2002-11-01 296290
## 24 2002-12-01 324834
## 25 2003-01-01 341989
## 26 2003-02-01 299249
## 27 2003-03-01 304317
## 28 2003-04-01 285756
## 29 2003-05-01 307545
## 30 2003-06-01 328694
## 31 2003-07-01 374396
## 32 2003-08-01 381816
## 33 2003-09-01 323136
## 34 2003-10-01 306741
## 35 2003-11-01 297867
## 36 2003-12-01 331680
## 37 2004-01-01 346546
## 38 2004-02-01 314280
## 39 2004-03-01 308812
## 40 2004-04-01 290560
## 41 2004-05-01 327380
## 42 2004-06-01 345085
## 43 2004-07-01 377332
## 44 2004-08-01 368439
## 45 2004-09-01 335622
## 46 2004-10-01 312450
## 47 2004-11-01 302101
## 48 2004-12-01 341948
## 49 2005-01-01 343121
## 50 2005-02-01 298500
## 51 2005-03-01 317458
## 52 2005-04-01 289562
## 53 2005-05-01 315062
## 54 2005-06-01 363672
## 55 2005-07-01 402274
## 56 2005-08-01 404941
## 57 2005-09-01 350218
## 58 2005-10-01 316398
## 59 2005-11-01 306115
## 60 2005-12-01 348101
## 61 2006-01-01 328658
## 62 2006-02-01 307333
## 63 2006-03-01 318730
## 64 2006-04-01 297858
## 65 2006-05-01 330616
## 66 2006-06-01 364260
## 67 2006-07-01 410421
## 68 2006-08-01 407763
## 69 2006-09-01 332055
## 70 2006-10-01 321567
## 71 2006-11-01 309159
## 72 2006-12-01 336283
## 73 2007-01-01 353531
## 74 2007-02-01 323230
## 75 2007-03-01 320471
## 76 2007-04-01 303129
## 77 2007-05-01 330203
## 78 2007-06-01 362755
## 79 2007-07-01 393226
## 80 2007-08-01 421797
## 81 2007-09-01 355394
## 82 2007-10-01 332615
## 83 2007-11-01 314103
## 84 2007-12-01 346290
## 85 2008-01-01 362998
## 86 2008-02-01 325106
## 87 2008-03-01 324630
## 88 2008-04-01 305865
## 89 2008-05-01 325245
## 90 2008-06-01 373109
## 91 2008-07-01 402900
## 92 2008-08-01 388987
## 93 2008-09-01 338056
## 94 2008-10-01 318547
## 95 2008-11-01 310046
## 96 2008-12-01 343898
## 97 2009-01-01 354993
## 98 2009-02-01 300887
## 99 2009-03-01 310603
## 100 2009-04-01 289537
## 101 2009-05-01 311306
## 102 2009-06-01 347658
## 103 2009-07-01 372542
## 104 2009-08-01 381221
## 105 2009-09-01 327401
## 106 2009-10-01 307040
## 107 2009-11-01 296635
## 108 2009-12-01 350507
## 109 2010-01-01 360957
## 110 2010-02-01 319735
## 111 2010-03-01 312168
## 112 2010-04-01 287800
## 113 2010-05-01 327936
## 114 2010-06-01 375759
## 115 2010-07-01 409725
## 116 2010-08-01 408884
## 117 2010-09-01 346045
## 118 2010-10-01 307921
## 119 2010-11-01 306010
## 120 2010-12-01 362119
## 121 2011-01-01 362872
## 122 2011-02-01 313127
## 123 2011-03-01 318710
## 124 2011-04-01 302401
## 125 2011-05-01 323628
## 126 2011-06-01 367727
## 127 2011-07-01 418693
## 128 2011-08-01 406511
## 129 2011-09-01 337931
## 130 2011-10-01 308699
## 131 2011-11-01 304102
## 132 2011-12-01 335740
## 133 2012-01-01 339526
## 134 2012-02-01 309389
## 135 2012-03-01 309090
## 136 2012-04-01 295229
## 137 2012-05-01 336516
## 138 2012-06-01 360825
## 139 2012-07-01 414641
## 140 2012-08-01 395700
## 141 2012-09-01 334586
## 142 2012-10-01 311652
## 143 2012-11-01 305976
## 144 2012-12-01 334635
## 145 2013-01-01 348967
## 146 2013-02-01 309728
## 147 2013-03-01 325399
## 148 2013-04-01 299333
## 149 2013-05-01 322156
## 150 2013-06-01 356823
## 151 2013-07-01 394846
## 152 2013-08-01 385286
## 153 2013-09-01 340941
## 154 2013-10-01 314925
## 155 2013-11-01 314540
## 156 2013-12-01 353021
## 157 2014-01-01 377250
## 158 2014-02-01 324344
## 159 2014-03-01 331818
## 160 2014-04-01 297625
## 161 2014-05-01 324718
## 162 2014-06-01 357838
## 163 2014-07-01 385773
## 164 2014-08-01 384335
## 165 2014-09-01 339881
## 166 2014-10-01 314516
## 167 2014-11-01 317489
## 168 2014-12-01 337951
## 169 2015-01-01 360449
## 170 2015-02-01 334471
## 171 2015-03-01 324186
## 172 2015-04-01 294128
## 173 2015-05-01 322081
## 174 2015-06-01 362403
## 175 2015-07-01 400412
## 176 2015-08-01 392110
## 177 2015-09-01 350115
## 178 2015-10-01 312106
## 179 2015-11-01 300647
## 180 2015-12-01 324421
## 181 2016-01-01 352714
## 182 2016-02-01 313680
## 183 2016-03-01 304384
## 184 2016-04-01 292889
## 185 2016-05-01 316779
## 186 2016-06-01 367776
## 187 2016-07-01 411881
## 188 2016-08-01 409695
## 189 2016-09-01 351479
## 190 2016-10-01 312940
## 191 2016-11-01 297056
## 192 2016-12-01 345337
## 193 2017-01-01 344325
## 194 2017-02-01 291043
## 195 2017-03-01 319329
## 196 2017-04-01 295354
## 197 2017-05-01 323439
## 198 2017-06-01 358514
## 199 2017-07-01 404425
## 200 2017-08-01 384731
## 201 2017-09-01 335908
## 202 2017-10-01 318662
## 203 2017-11-01 308045
## 204 2017-12-01 350408
## 205 2018-01-01 373230
## 206 2018-02-01 306894
## 207 2018-03-01 321547
## 208 2018-04-01 300756
## 209 2018-05-01 338948
## 210 2018-06-01 371886
## 211 2018-07-01 411290
## 212 2018-08-01 408028
## 213 2018-09-01 356258
## 214 2018-10-01 324932
## 215 2018-11-01 322369
## 216 2018-12-01 342139
## 217 2019-01-01 359509
## 218 2019-02-01 315026
## 219 2019-03-01 326657
## 220 2019-04-01 296663
## 221 2019-05-01 330423
## 222 2019-06-01 352988
## 223 2019-07-01 410038
## 224 2019-08-01 401430
## 225 2019-09-01 360518
## 226 2019-10-01 320352
## 227 2019-11-01 315849
## 228 2019-12-01 338402
## 229 2020-01-01 341850
## 230 2020-02-01 319550
## 231 2020-03-01 309587
## 232 2020-04-01 279583
## 233 2020-05-01 304593
## 234 2020-06-01 351745
## 235 2020-07-01 409562
## 236 2020-08-01 398280
## 237 2020-09-01 333258
## 238 2020-10-01 313531
## 239 2020-11-01 301250
## 240 2020-12-01 344346
## 241 2021-01-01 350796
## 242 2021-02-01 326223
## 243 2021-03-01 312285
## 244 2021-04-01 292504
## 245 2021-05-01 318859
## 246 2021-06-01 373754
## 247 2021-07-01 404749
## 248 2021-08-01 413353
## 249 2021-09-01 348201
## 250 2021-10-01 319638
## 251 2021-11-01 315495
## 252 2021-12-01 339684
## 253 2022-01-01 378967
## 254 2022-02-01 327767
## 255 2022-03-01 325952now let’s check for missing value
anyNA(Energy_clean)## [1] FALSEWe can see that the data has no missing value, we can move onto the next phase which is checking if there is any missing year between the start and at the end.
range(Energy_clean$Date)## [1] "2001-01-01" "2022-03-01"all(seq.Date(from = as.Date("2001-01-01"), to = as.Date("2022-03-01"), by = "month") == Energy_clean$Date)## [1] TRUESince the data returning TRUE, which means that the year in between are complete, let’s create a time series object
5 Time Series Object
We would want to see the energy consume yearly. Hence, we will be putting 12 for the frequency since the data is presented monthly
Energy_ts = ts(data = Energy_clean$US_Energy_Consumption,
start = c(2001, 1),
frequency = 12)6 Visualizing the Time Series Object
library(forecast)
Energy_ts |>
autoplot(ylab = "Total Energy consumed in US of A",
xlab = "Year")
7 Decompose the Data
Now let’s decompose the data to have a better understanding of it.
Energy_ts |> decompose() |> autoplot()
As we can see that the type of our TS object is additive time series. We can see that the data has a seasonal since the seasonal shows us a recurring pattern in its move. The data also consist of a trend which going up for around 7 years starting 2001, and it drops quite steeply in around 2008 which probably caused by the crisis happened back in 2008 in the USA. However, the trend line does not look so good. this can be caused by 2 possibilities. The first one is that it has a trend inside the trend. The second possibility is that we give the frequency an unjust number. However, we have given it a number of 12 according to our goal, which is to see the move of the data yearly. With that being said, let’s leave it the way it is and get on with it.
8 Splitting the Data
Energy_train <- head(Energy_ts, 15*12)
Energy_test <- tail(Energy_ts, -15*12)9 Check whether the data is stationer
library(tseries)
adf.test(Energy_train)##
## Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
##
## data: Energy_train
## Dickey-Fuller = -7.591, Lag order = 5, p-value = 0.01
## alternative hypothesis: stationarySince the p value is < 0.05, means that our TS data is already stationer, we can move into next phase. But, this step to differencing the data can be done as follow if our data is not stationer
Energy_train %>%
diff(lag = 12) %>%
diff() %>%
tsdisplay(lag.max = 36)
Now, let’s move into the next phase using the data after differencing (which actually is not necessary to do in the real case, if our TS data is already stationer)
10 Model Fitting
The modeling using auto arima to be used for threshold
library(forecast)
Energy_auto <- auto.arima(Energy_train, trace=T)##
## Fitting models using approximations to speed things up...
##
## ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)[12] with drift : 3331.541
## ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,0)[12] with drift : 3428.399
## ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)[12] with drift : 3356.031
## ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)[12] with drift : 3356.376
## ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,0)[12] : 3430.594
## ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)[12] with drift : 3335.562
## ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,0)[12] with drift : 3357.206
## ARIMA(2,0,2)(2,1,1)[12] with drift : Inf
## ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : 3329.39
## ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,2)[12] with drift : 3335.027
## ARIMA(2,0,2)(2,1,2)[12] with drift : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : 3325.157
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,2)[12] with drift : 3336.888
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(1,1,1)[12] with drift : 3329.45
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(2,1,2)[12] with drift : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,1)[12] with drift : 3337.122
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(2,1,1)[12] with drift : 3340.082
## ARIMA(0,0,2)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : 3339.919
## ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : 3327.052
## ARIMA(1,0,3)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : Inf
## ARIMA(0,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : 3344.015
## ARIMA(0,0,3)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : 3335.929
## ARIMA(2,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : 3328.73
## ARIMA(2,0,3)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(1,1,2)[12] : 3322.969
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,2)[12] : 3337.681
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(1,1,1)[12] : 3328.96
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(2,1,2)[12] : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,1)[12] : 3337.496
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(2,1,1)[12] : 3338.089
## ARIMA(0,0,2)(1,1,2)[12] : 3349.148
## ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] : 3329.091
## ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,2)[12] : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,3)(1,1,2)[12] : Inf
## ARIMA(0,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] : 3352.734
## ARIMA(0,0,3)(1,1,2)[12] : 3342.391
## ARIMA(2,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] : Inf
## ARIMA(2,0,3)(1,1,2)[12] : Inf
##
## Now re-fitting the best model(s) without approximations...
##
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(1,1,2)[12] : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : Inf
## ARIMA(2,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] with drift : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,2)(1,1,1)[12] : Inf
## ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,2)[12] : 3561.536
##
## Best model: ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,2)[12]Energy_auto## Series: Energy_train
## ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,2)[12]
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 ma1 sar1 sma1 sma2
## 0.8424 -0.3264 -0.0050 -0.6900 -0.1465
## s.e. 0.0747 0.1364 0.4259 0.4318 0.3276
##
## sigma^2 = 83124623: log likelihood = -1774.51
## AIC=3561.01 AICc=3561.54 BIC=3579.76ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,2)[12]
Now, since the data has a seasonal, let’s tuning the model using
SARIMA. but first let’s see the PACF and ACF graph to help
us determine the value of p, q, P, and Q
Energy_train %>%
diff(lag = 12) %>%
diff() %>%
tsdisplay(lag.max = 36)
the probability for the value of (p,d,q) and (P,D,Q):
p = 1, 2, 0
q = 1, 2, 0
P = 1, 0
Q = 1, 0
SARIMA model combination
Energy101111 <- Arima(Energy_train, order = c(1,0,1), seasonal = c(1,1,1))
Energy201111 <- Arima(Energy_train, order = c(2,0,1), seasonal = c(1,1,1))
Energy102111 <- Arima(Energy_train, order = c(1,0,2), seasonal = c(1,1,1))
Energy202111 <- Arima(Energy_train, order = c(2,0,2), seasonal = c(1,1,1))Now let’s pick out the best model
11 Goodness of fit
Energy_auto$aic ; Energy101111$aic ; Energy102111$aic ; Energy201111$aic ; Energy202111$aic## [1] 3561.014## [1] 3559.179## [1] 3556.885## [1] 3555.086## [1] 3557.041from the result, we can see that the model of Energy201111 has the least aic, which means that it has the least errors. Thus, we will pick the model in our forecasting step
12 Forecasting
Energy_fore <- forecast(Energy201111, h = 75)Visualizing the result
Energy_ts %>%
autoplot()+
autolayer(Energy201111$fitted, series = "training") +
autolayer(Energy_fore$mean, series = "forecast")
The model training is looking nice from the plot above. Notice that the
data train predicting almost flawlessly in early years of 2001 and 2002
give or take (notice the black on the tip of the line during those
years)
13 Model Evaluation
Now we would like to see the error percentage of the model by looking
at its MAPE
accuracy(Energy_fore, Energy_test)## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
## Training set 722.616 8320.701 6372.442 0.1643256 1.866685 0.6321636
## Test set 5538.464 11323.765 9213.566 1.4626696 2.645851 0.9140108
## ACF1 Theil's U
## Training set -0.01689208 NA
## Test set 0.36362302 0.3363917We can see that the our training set has an error of 1.87% and the test set has an error slightly bigger at 2.64%. This percentage of error is considered as low error. In other words, we have a good model
14 Check Assumption
14.1 No Autocorrelation
We will be checking the autocorrelation using L-jung box. we would want to see the p-value greater than 0.05 which indicates that there is no correlation in our forecasting
Box.test(Energy201111$residuals, type = "Ljung-Box")##
## Box-Ljung test
##
## data: Energy201111$residuals
## X-squared = 0.052222, df = 1, p-value = 0.8192Hypothesis:
\(H_0\): residual has no-autocorrelation
\(H_1\): residual has autocorrelation
Now since the p-value is greater than 0.05, then it fails to reject the \(H0\). Hence, the forecasting does not show any correlation in it.
14.2 Residuals Normality
We will now going to look at the distribution of the residuals whether its normal or not. To see that, we will be using the Shapiro Test method.
shapiro.test(Energy201111$residuals)##
## Shapiro-Wilk normality test
##
## data: Energy201111$residuals
## W = 0.9911, p-value = 0.33Hypothesis:
\(H_0\): residuals spread normally
\(H_1\): residuals does not spread normally
Now since the p-value returning the value greater than 0.05, we can say that the distribution of the resids are normally distributed.
15 Conclusion and Suggestion
C > Out of our 5 models, we can see that the 4th
model (Model Energy201111) has the best performance of
all. this model also has already pass the test for it to be used.
S > Now, if we want to see the US of A energy
consumption in the future, we could be simply using the Model
Energy201111 to better prep the stock of the energy to be
consumed