MDC 2050 Cohort Component Forecast - RPG 2050 Fertility Boost
RPG Fertility Boost 2050 Forecast
This forecast is based on the following input parameters:
Survival Rates - CBO 2022
Fertility Rates - CBO 2022 w/ boost that tapers off to 2050
Sex Ratio at Birth - Fixed at US Average
Net Migration Rates - RER 2022 (Extrapolated to 2050)
The parameters are plotted and compared to benchmarks later in this document.
Method
This analysis utilizes the demCore package published in the R programming language. This package is made availabe by a team of researchers at Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a “research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.” The software is made available under the GPL-3 license, which allows commercial use.
Results
Projected Population by Age Bracket
Projected Total Population - Peer Comparisons
Peer Tabular Comparison
| scenario | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEBR (2017) | NA | NA | 2,829,875 | NA | NA | 2,980,079 | 3,130,283 | 3,280,488 | 3,430,692 | 3,580,896 | NA |
| BEBR (2021) - High | NA | NA | NA | 2,731,939 | NA | 2,965,000 | 3,171,000 | 3,354,500 | 3,521,000 | 3,673,700 | 3,815,500 |
| BEBR (2021) - Low | NA | NA | NA | 2,731,939 | NA | 2,682,600 | 2,674,200 | 2,649,100 | 2,615,800 | 2,579,400 | 2,543,700 |
| BEBR (2021) - Medium | NA | NA | NA | 2,731,939 | NA | 2,823,800 | 2,922,600 | 3,001,800 | 3,068,400 | 3,126,600 | 3,179,600 |
| LRTP (2040) | NA | 2,494,310 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 3,305,377 | NA | NA |
| MDC 2045 (Control Totals) | NA | 2,647,955 | 2,754,415 | NA | NA | 2,944,718 | 3,114,391 | 3,274,793 | 3,408,161 | 3,532,789 | NA |
| Moody’s (2017) | NA | 2,692,593 | 2,867,264 | 2,904,471 | 2,941,646 | 3,051,664 | 3,227,685 | 3,382,611 | 3,493,063 | 3,589,568 | NA |
| RER (2017) | NA | 2,629,628 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 3,431,000 | NA | NA |
| RER (2022) | 2,496,435 | NA | 2,701,767 | NA | NA | 2,800,485 | 2,914,784 | 3,021,275 | 3,119,106 | NA | NA |
| SEFTC RTP (2020) | NA | 2,629,800 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 3,533,000 | NA |
| Seven50 SE FL Prosperity Plan Regional Growth Applied to MDC (2014) | 2,496,435 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 3,214,892 | NA | NA |
| This Projection (RPG 2050 Fertility Boost) | NA | NA | 2,701,764 | NA | NA | 2,826,551 | 2,949,376 | 3,063,550 | 3,151,341 | 3,216,568 | 3,262,992 |
| W&P (2017) | NA | 2,693,117 | 2,851,035 | 2,883,912 | 2,917,076 | 3,018,050 | 3,189,098 | 3,355,777 | 3,515,028 | 3,668,653 | NA |
Input Parameters & Benchmark Comparisons
Fertility Rate
Net Migration Rate by Age
Net Migration Rate - Comparison to Historical Rates & Peers
