27/10, 2022

Species distirbution models

Species distribution models

  • Modeling more than 40,000 Species of Denmark
  • Goal to model them at 10 meter resolution including
    • Climatic data (Chelsa Downscaling algorithm)
    • Soil data (Soilgrids for EU)
    • Landuse (Either corine or google earth dynamic world)
  • Projections for present and at least 4 future scenarios

Presence cleaning

  • Passed it through the taxize r package to get the GBIF closest match and exclude synonimia
  • Filtered out species with lower than 0.9 in a match
  • Used rgbif package to download presences
  • Max 10.000 species that had coordinates

Filtering of presences

With CoordinateCleaner r package:

  • Presences from 1960 onwards
  • Eliminated prescences in Country, county or regions centroids (Known way to create coordinates of occurrences where there are no known coordinates)
  • Eliminated equal lat and long
  • Eliminated environmental and geografical outliers

With spThin

  • Made sure that presences are at least 5 kms form each other (Spatial Autocorrelation)

Example

For Avena fatua reduction from 6406 to 1458

Methods

  • Using AMPL written and tested models to prioritize:
    • Denmark or EU as a whole, by region, or by commune
    • Maximize shannon divesity (or other alpha div)
    • Select possible landuse changes
    • Minimum Carbon storage
    • Goals for red list species
    • Consider cities, landuse change, and climate change

Methods

  • Using prioritizr for optimization
  • two approaches
    • Minimum cost to approach goals
    • Maximum gain given a certain budget (better to get to target areas)
  • 987 species as target features

Biodiversity

Data for Denmark

  • From BIEN, we looked for all the presences of species present in Denmark
    • Native: 987
    • Invasive: 208 (more introduced species have also been modeled)
  • Model current and 4 future scenarios

Concensus (Example)

  • When current and future ranges are aligned

Concensus richness

  • Present richness vs concensus richness
  • Better options with migrations, artscore, and other metrics
  • Other taxa

Human dimension

Agriculture

  • Naidoo and Iwamura (2007)
  • Based on potential crop and livestock production
  • Does not consider climate change (We can do better)

Human footprint

  • Copenhagen shows how different they are

Prioritization

Naive prioritization

  • Only take into account species (10% coverage)

Naive (cont)

Add Agriculture

  • Add Agriculture as cost (min cost)

Add agriculture (cont)

We dont start from scratch

  • Start with protected areas, eliminate cities (HFP)

We dont start from scratch (cont)

Using weights and different budgets

closest to 10 and 30%

Thanks