1. Police and Fire Salaries Have Risen Much Faster Than Salaries in
Many Other Comparable Professions
We think this is driven by overtime.
2. Cities are More Likely to Have Increased Police Salaries than
Police Employment
The picture looks the same for firefighters. But
income and crime are not great at predicting a city’s choice.
Crime
3. Population is Most Predictive of Employment and Salaries
(Controlling for City and Year Fixed Effects)
Police
Employment
Salaries
Fire
Employment
Salaries
4. These Results Are Relatively Robust to Additional Covariates
But crime and fires are not very predictive of employment or
salaries
Police
Employment
Salaries
Fire
Employment
Salaries
5. Cities that Cut Overall Budgets Still Generally Don’t Cut Police
& Fire Salaries
6. Few Cities Have Increased Police Outlays More than Total
Municipal Outlays
7. Percent Change in Home Prices is Pretty Predictive of Total
Municipal Outlays
8. The Police Budget Share Has Decreased 30% from 13% to 9%
Police
Fire Share of Budget Has Also Decreased 30%, from 8% to 5%
9. Payroll as a Percent of Total Outlays has Also Declined Over
Time
Police
Fire
10. Cities with Biggest Budget Increases Decreased Police Share the
Most
Y: Percent Change Total Budget
Y: Percent Change Budget per Capita
Y: Percent Change Housing Prices
12. Over Time, Police Salaries are up (~20%), Employment is down
(~5%), and so Is Crime
Police
Salaries
Employment
Crime
Fire Salaries are up (16%), employment is up (11%), and fires are up
for our specific sample
Salaries
Employment
Fires
13. For Local Governments as a Whole (including county governments),
Budget Shares Have Not Changed Dramatically across the Entire US
Note: Public Safety Includes Police, Fire, Corrections, and
Investigations.
