Parliamentary Studies Lecture: Speeches and Votes

• We rely on theories (A theory is a set of interrelated concepts, definitions, and propositions that explains or predicts events or situations by specifying relations among variables.)

• And derive hypotheses – more \( X \) –> more \( Y \)

• We call X and Y variables

• Variables can behave in various different ways and come in a variety of shapes and sizes

• Models are a representation of reality

• “All models are wrong, but some are useful” (George Box)

• They look something like this:

\[ y_i = \alpha+x_1\beta_i + x_2\beta_i ... + \varepsilon_i \]

These models (or equations) will try to fit some data. Put very generally and simply, we will have a dependent variable (often denoted \( y \)), and we will see if other, independent variables (often denoted \( x \)) are correlated with it / can predict it.

• 20% Women in parliament, 10% speaking time!!!

• “participation isn't equal … [then] one democratic standard has fallen” / Parliament is deeply embedded culture of masculinity' (Lovenduski 2005, 48)

Searching for power/influence of women in decision making bodies:

• Do female MPs speak more when the debate is led by a female minister?

• Do female MPs have more influence in debates led by female ministers?

• Are female ministers more responsive to female MPs?

• The percentage of words of spoken by women

• Similarity as influence and responsivenss: you are powerful if speakers refer to what you said!

• “Women MPs speak significantly more in debates led by a Woman minister”

• Female MPs are more influential by 10%-30% in debates led by female ministers!!!

• Female Ministers are more responsive to women by 18%-25%!!!

• A reinforcing effect of female leadership: participation–>influence–>responsiveness

• Descriptive and substantive representation implications

• Implications for women political participation in general

• The Representation of the People Act of 1867 and its impact on parliamentary debate

• Granted the vote to all householders in the boroughs as well as lodgers who paid rent of 10 pounds a year or more and reduced the property threshold in the counties and gave the vote to agricultural landowners and tenants with very small amounts of land

• What impact does this have on behavior of elites and political representation?

Leading politicians understood that after the reform, they had to communicate with the new voters, very different in their profile than who they were used to talking to. Some claimed that new voters were characterized by: “venality…ignorance…drunkeness” and were “impulsive, unreflecting and violent people”.

• Ministers, the face of the party, would talk in a less complex way

• Backbenchers… not so much

• Minister became around 8% easier to understand

• Impact of suffrage extension on MPs behavior, types of representation, political communication

• Maybe “dumbing down” is a necessary development representing a democratization of political language?

• Methodological & analytic creativity

• Rebellion is a costly act (rebels have lower prospects of promotion)

• Government rebels are generally purists thinking the government should produce policies popular among party base

• They grandstand

• They use speeches to communicate their position to constituencies

• Therefore: rebel speeches should be different

You are a backbencher of a party controlling government. Your party has just decided to cut welfare support for the poor. Drastically. This proposition enjoys a majority in parliament.

• Group A: you will vote with the government

• Group B: you oppose this move and will rebel

• Task: Write a short speech (5-7 sentences) that you will have made in parliament about the motion. Email it to me (not as a attachment, just an email) (e.tzelgov@uea.ac.uk), with the subject line Aye/No

• I will do the rest

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