The author writes on page 31:
"At the beginning of 2001, the economy was not in recession. The fourth quarter of 2000 data had not been released but would, in time, show that the economy had grown by 2.2 percent in twelve months. Forecasters were nervous, however. The consensus forecast published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in February 2001 predicted a mere 0.8 percent growth in the first quarter. Also of significance, the forecasters had revised their numbers down from 3.3. percent growth in the prior survey three months earlier. That should have been a tip-off that the economy needed watching... However, executives who saw the lowered forecast in early 2001 and thereafter watched the economy closely were in a far superior position to those managers who chugged forward as if nothing were amiss."It shows how a business manager should use macroeconomic forecasts. Go to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and open the latest forecast report by clicking this link to Survey of Professional Forecasters. What is your reading? Is it time to watch the economy closely for an incoming downturn? Is the Philadelphia Fed’s forecast consistent with the six economic indicators we analyzed in the real-world applications three assignment?
Write your answer below this line. When writing, keep the following in mind.
After reading and analyzing the article based off of the information given, it looks evident that in due time there will end up being a downturn with the economy. In the article it is stated that forecasters predict that the real GDP will increase by 1.8% annually with-in the first quarter of the 2022 year, but this means it will be down by 2.1% which is off of the prediction made in their last survey which was 3.9%. The company is looking to make downwards revisions from the unemployment rate for a potential way to have a better outlook on their growth. The Bank of Philadelphia predicts to see a 3.9% decrease during this quarter and potentially to 3.4% in the same quarter in 2023. However the forecasters have made a revised estimate for job gains that will be upward for the first two quarters of the 2022 year with suggestion that job gains will be at a potential monthly rate of 430,900 but that was not a major change from the previous estimate on the job gains. Based off of the Bank of Philadelphia’s forecasting report it does deem consistent with the economic indicators that were shown in the real-world applications 3 assignment. A suggestion that I would make they should watch very closely for an economic downturn and be prepared. By using this data they will be better equipped to predict when a potential downturn will happen and have the resources necessary to make decisions that will put them ahead of the downturn to salvage relationships with different services that they use.
| Question | Response from the company |
|---|---|
Sales can swing wildly. If the company’s too slow in responding to a sudden drop in sales, it could go bankrupt. If it is too slow in responding to a large upswing, it could lose its market share. It could even develop a reputation of an unreliable vendor. Please, discuss your early warning system, if you have one. |
The level of our car inventories which we watch closely is a great early warning indicator. In the car business, we get to see what our competitors are selling daily so we have perspective on not just what we are selling, but how our competitors are fairing as well. Certainly, we pay close attention to what our manufacturing partners are telling us as well as the National Auto Dealers Association, our industry trade group. |
| Question | Response from the company |
|---|---|
Sales can swing wildly. If the company’s too slow in responding to a sudden drop in sales, it could go bankrupt. If it is too slow in responding to a large upswing, it could lose its market share. It could even develop a reputation of an unreliable vendor. Please, discuss your early warning system, if you have one. |
The bank builds up loss reserves, conducts expense reviews, tries to maximize yield on assets, looks to sell less profitable assets, e.g. low yielding loans. The bank also conducts various annual stress tests and scenario analyses to identify potential problems that could arise during an adverse economic event. Corrective action is taken to mitigate these risks if the exposure is outside of acceptable ranges. |
| Question | Response from the company |
|---|---|
Sales can swing wildly. If the company’s too slow in responding to a sudden drop in sales, it could go bankrupt. If it is too slow in responding to a large upswing, it could lose its market share. It could even develop a reputation of an unreliable vendor. Please, discuss your early warning system, if you have one. |
Our staffing is very light, and we utilize outsourcing when we are busy. In a downturn we can return to in house production. |