Who’s to blame for climate change? An analysis of CO2 Emissions Data among G20 Countries
Gen Shiraishi
2022-10-05
Overview
Multilateral climate action negotiations are regularly challenged by the blame game - which countries are most responsible for causing climate change? This is an important question to answer, since it informs the extent to which the global community expects each country to contribute towards climate action. This analysis utilizes the latest emissions data available from the World Bank to compare territorial emissions, consumption emissions and cumulative emissions among G20 countries to identify countries that have contributed most to climate change, and are thus most accountable to take climate action.
Data set-up
Read in data
folder_path <- partial(here, "00_data", "sov_debt_paris_alignment")
folder_path() %>% list.files()## [1] "country_list_bis_debt_securities.csv"
## [2] "country_list_combined_bond_indices.csv"
## [3] "country_list_em_dm.csv"
## [4] "emissions_dataset.csv"
## [5] "emissions_dataset.rds"
## [6] "emissions_dataset_full.csv"
## [7] "emissions_dataset_full.rds"
## [8] "imf_wb_country_groups.csv"
## [9] "imf_wb_country_groups.rds"
## [10] "wb_income_groups.csv"
## [11] "wb_income_groups.rds"
## [12] "weo_world_income_population.csv"
## [13] "weo_world_income_population.rds"emissions_dataset_full <- folder_path("emissions_dataset_full.rds") %>%
read_rds()
imf_wb_country_groups <- folder_path("imf_wb_country_groups.rds") %>%
read_rds()Review the data
glimpse(emissions_dataset_full)## Rows: 6,702
## Columns: 31
## $ iso3c <chr> "AFG", "AFG", "AFG", "AFG", "AFG"…
## $ year <dbl> 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 199…
## $ gdp_usd_current_prices <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ gdp_ppp_current_prices <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ gdp_pc_usd_current_prices <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ gdp_pc_ppp_current_prices <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ population <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ govt_expenditure_pct_gdp <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ debt_pct_gdp <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ territorial_co2 <dbl> 2.603, 2.427, 1.379, 1.333, 1.282…
## $ trade_co2 <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ consumption_co2 <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ cumulative_co2 <dbl> 59.182, 61.610, 62.989, 64.322, 6…
## $ debt_usd <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ govt_expenditure_usd <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ territorial_co2_per_capita <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ trade_co2_per_capita <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ consumption_co2_per_capita <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ territorial_co2_per_gdp <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ trade_co2_per_gdp <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ consumption_co2_per_gdp <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ territorial_co2_per_debt <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ trade_co2_per_debt <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ consumption_co2_per_debt <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ debt_usd_per_capita <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ territorial_co2_per_govt_expenditure <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ trade_co2_per_govt_expenditure <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ consumption_co2_govt_expenditure <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ govt_expenditure_per_capita <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ trade_pct_of_consumption_co2 <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ cumulative_co2_per_capita <dbl> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…glimpse(imf_wb_country_groups)## Rows: 2,587
## Columns: 3
## $ country_name <chr> "Australia", "Austria", "Belgium", "Canada", "Switzerlan…
## $ country_group <chr> "Advanced Economies", "Advanced Economies", "Advanced Ec…
## $ group_type <chr> "IMF", "IMF", "IMF", "IMF", "IMF", "IMF", "IMF", "IMF", …Filter the emissions dataset to the latest data (2019)
emissions_dataset_full_2019 <- emissions_dataset_full %>%
filter(year == 2019)
emissions_dataset_full_2019Filter the country groups to the G20
imf_wb_country_groups_G20 <- imf_wb_country_groups %>%
filter(country_group == "G20")
imf_wb_country_groups_G20Convert country names to iso3c
country_name_regex_to_iso3c <- function(country_name) {
country_name %>%
countrycode(origin = "country.name",
destination = "iso3c",
origin_regex = TRUE)
}
imf_wb_country_groups_G20_iso3c <- imf_wb_country_groups_G20 %>%
mutate(iso3c = country_name_regex_to_iso3c(country_name))
imf_wb_country_groups_G20_iso3cJoin the two datasets
emissions_data_G20_2019 <- imf_wb_country_groups_G20_iso3c %>% left_join(emissions_dataset_full_2019, by = "iso3c")
emissions_data_G20_2019Summary statistics
#Total territorial CO2
sum(emissions_data_G20_2019$territorial_co2)## [1] 27785.37#Avg. territorial CO2 per capita
mean(emissions_data_G20_2019$territorial_co2_per_capita)## [1] 8.289639#Total consumption Co2
sum(emissions_data_G20_2019$consumption_co2)## [1] 27245.99#Avg. consumption Co2 per capita
mean(emissions_data_G20_2019$consumption_co2_per_capita)## [1] 8.54794#Total cumulative CO2
sum(emissions_data_G20_2019$cumulative_co2)## [1] 1273020#Avg. cumulative CO2 per capita
mean(emissions_data_G20_2019$cumulative_co2_per_capita)## [1] 491.5962In terms of territorial CO2, G20 countries collectively emit 27,785 tons of CO2 per year. On average, G20 countries emit 8.9 tons of CO2 per capita.
In terms of consumption COD, G20 countries collectively emit 27,246 tons of CO2 per year. On average, G20 countries emit 8.5 tones of CO2 per capita.
In terms of cumulative CO2, G20 countries have collectively emitted 1,273,020 tons of CO2. On average, G20 countries have emitted 491.6 tones of CO2 per capita.
Analysis
Territorial CO2 per capita, by country
emissions_data_G20_2019 %>%
ggplot(aes(fct_reorder(iso3c, territorial_co2_per_capita),territorial_co2_per_capita)) +
geom_col() +
coord_flip() +
scale_y_continuous(labels = )+
scale_x_discrete (guide = guide_axis(n.dodge=1.75))+
labs(
x = "",
y = "Tons of CO2",
title = "G20 Countries - Territorial Emissions Per Capita",
subtitle = "Territorial CO2 per capita per year, 2019",
caption = "Data source: World Bank, IMF, Our World In Data"
)+
theme_pander()
Based on this comparison of territorial emissions per capita, Saudi Arabia, Australia, the United States, Canada, South Korea and Russia are the top 6 heaviest contributers to climate change as they emit more than 10 tons of CO2 per capita per year.
Consumption Co2 per capita, by country
emissions_data_G20_2019 %>%
ggplot(aes(fct_reorder(iso3c, consumption_co2_per_capita),consumption_co2_per_capita)) +
geom_col() +
coord_flip() +
scale_y_continuous(labels = )+
scale_x_discrete (guide = guide_axis(n.dodge=1.75))+
labs(
x = "",
y = "Tons of CO2",
title = "G20 Countries - Consumption CO2 Per Capita",
subtitle = "Consumption CO2 per capita per year, 2019",
caption = "Data source: World Bank, IMF, Our World In Data"
)+
theme_pander()
Based on this comparison of consumption emissions per capita, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Canada, Australia, South Korea and Japan are the top 6 heaviest contributers to climate change as they consume more than 10 tons of CO2 per capita per year.
These top 6 heaviest contributers are consistent with the previous finding, except that Russia is no longer in the top 6 and Japan is now in the top 6, suggesting that Russia’s territorial emissions were likely driven by emissions-intensive industries that export their goods for foreign consumption. This is not true for Saudi Arabia, which remains the heaviest polluter on both scales.
Cumulative CO2 per capita, by country
emissions_data_G20_2019 %>%
ggplot(aes(fct_reorder(iso3c, cumulative_co2_per_capita),cumulative_co2_per_capita)) +
geom_col() +
coord_flip() +
scale_y_continuous(labels = )+
scale_x_discrete (guide = guide_axis(n.dodge=1.75))+
labs(
x = "",
y = "Tons of CO2",
title = "G20 Countries - Cumulative Emissions Per Capita",
subtitle = "Cumulative CO2 per capita, 2019",
caption = "Data source: World Bank, IMF, Our World In Data"
)+
theme_pander()
This comparison of cumulative emissions per capita significantly shifts the top 6 heaviest polluters, which are now the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Canada, Russia and Australia. Notably, Saudia Arabia, Japan and South Korea are no longer in the top 6.
Synthesis of findings
The findings of this analysis point to a critical aspect of the blame game - should countries be measured by their current emission levels or their past emission levels? Considering that the current state of climate change was caused by emissions in the past, the latter seems more appropriate.
As such, the countries that have been the heaviest emitters, measured by cumulative emissions, which are mostly Western countries that benefited from emission-intensive growth in the 19th and 20th centuries, should be held accountable for making substantially larger climate commitments in climate action negotiations.