[1] "maxfbar has been changed to accomodate new plusgroup"

Operating Model

The OM is designed to test the ability of an index/indicator to assess status and trend.

There are four trajectories based on F

Burnin: Constant \(F\) for historical and future trajectories Trends: Positive and negative trends in \(F\) from 2021 onwards Kicked: Stepwise de/increase equal to 2030 level in trends

Figure 1 Simulations for estimating classification skill

Indicators

There are four possible usages

  1. Relative to a reference point
  2. Relative to a reference period
  3. X-over-Y rules and
  4. Slope of a linear regression
[1] "Base burnin"
[1] "Base kick"
[1] "Base ftrend"
[1] "M Cohort burnin"
[1] "M Cohort kick"
[1] "M Cohort ftrend"
[1] "M1 burnin"
[1] "M1 kick"
[1] "M1 ftrend"
[1] "M2 burnin"
[1] "M2 kick"
[1] "M2 ftrend"

Length base indicators

Figure 2 ROC curves for length based indicators by scenario and year.

Harvest rate

Figure 3 ROC curves for harvest rate by scenario and year.

Biomass Index

Figure 4 ROC curves for biomass index.

Figure 5 ROC curves for lagged biomass index.

X-over-Y Rules:

1-over-2 Rule

Figure 6

2-over-3 rule

Figure 7

Reference period

Relative to 2010: 1-over-2

Figure 8

Relative to 2010: 2-over-3

Figure 9

Slope

3 years

Figure 10

5 years

Figure 11