Context

Since the passage of the Paris Climate Agreement, countries have made a variety of pledges and commitments to reduce their CO2 emissions. The global environmental regime was originally predicated on the concept of “common, but differentiated responsibilities” - essentially putting the onus on the advanced, developed economies to take the bulk of the action needed to curb climate change. This analysis will take a brief look at where cumulative emissions are between advanced and emerging economies since the Paris Agreement and determine if the common, but differentiated responsibilities framework is still applicable. In other words - are advanced economies still the ones driving the bulk of emissions or do developing countries also need to step up more?

Advanced Economies

The United States remains the top emitter, by far among advanced economies. The countries behind the U.S. like Germany, the U.K. and Japan are at roughly a third of the U.S.

country_group_emissions <- imf_wb_country_groups %>% 
  inner_join(emissions_dataset, by = c("country_name")) %>%
  filter(country_group == "Advanced Economies", year>=2015)%>%
  group_by(country_name) %>%
  summarize(mean_co2 = mean(cumulative_co2)) %>%
  arrange(desc(mean_co2)) %>%
  slice (1:10)

country_group_emissions %>%
  ggplot(aes(fct_reorder(country_name, mean_co2),mean_co2)) +            
  geom_col() + 
  coord_flip() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = comma)+
  scale_x_discrete (guide = guide_axis(n.dodge=1.75))+
  labs(
    x = "",
    y = "Tons of CO2",
    title = "Top 10 Emitters Among Advanced Economies",
    subtitle = "Average Cumulative Tons of CO2, 2015-2019",
    caption = "Data source: World Bank, IMF, Our World In Data"
    )+
  theme_pander()

Emerging Economies

China is the top emitter among emerging market economies. The countries behind China like Russia and India are less half of China’s emissions.

country_group_emissions_2 <- imf_wb_country_groups %>% 
  inner_join(emissions_dataset, by = c("country_name")) %>%
  filter(country_group == "Emerging Market Economies", year>=2015)%>%
  group_by(country_name) %>%
  summarize(mean_co2 = mean(cumulative_co2)) %>%
  arrange(desc(mean_co2)) %>%
  slice (1:10)

country_group_emissions_2 %>%
  ggplot(aes(fct_reorder(country_name, mean_co2),mean_co2)) +            
  geom_col() + 
  coord_flip() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = comma)+
  scale_x_discrete (guide = guide_axis(n.dodge=1.75))+
  labs(
    x = "",
    y = "Tons of CO2",
    title = "Top 10 Emitters Among Emerging Market Economies",
    subtitle = "Average Cumulative Tons of CO2, 2015-2019",
    caption = "Data source: World Bank, IMF, Our World In Data"
    )+
  theme_pander()

Growth of Emissions

Taking together the top emitters across advanced and emerging economies, the “common, but differentiated responsibilities” framework is no longer on steady ground. While the U.S. still leads the pack, of the top 7 emitters, roughly half are from emerging market economies. In addition, the relative growth of emissions since the Paris Agreement came into effect in 2015 has been smaller for advanced economies than emerging market ones. Ultimately, this suggests that emerging market economies, particularly China, India, and Russia must step up to make steeper emission cuts than they have agreed to in the past.

country_group_emissions_3 <- imf_wb_country_groups %>% 
  inner_join(emissions_dataset, by = c("country_name")) %>%
  filter(country_group == "G20", year>=2015)%>%
  select (country_name,year,cumulative_co2) %>%
  arrange(desc(cumulative_co2)) %>%
  slice (1:35) 

country_group_emissions_3 %>%
  ggplot(aes(fct_reorder(country_name, cumulative_co2),cumulative_co2)) + 
  geom_point ()+  
  coord_flip()+ 
  scale_y_continuous(labels = comma)+
  scale_x_discrete (guide = guide_axis(n.dodge=1.75))+
  labs(
    x = "",
    y = "Tons of CO2",
    title = "Growth of Emissions Every Year Since the Paris Agreement",
    subtitle = "Cumulative CO2 Emissions of Top Emitters, 2015-2019",
    caption = "Data source: World Bank, IMF, Our World In Data"
    )+
  theme_pander()