Make your argument based on your analysis of the given charts. Discuss timing and depth of changes in the economic data relative to recessions in at least 50 words.
Based upon analyzing the data shown in both the economic and market indicators, It is likely the United States will end in a recession. Using the Treasury Yield Spread charts as a significant indicator helps prove this near unavoidable recession. The current treasury curve is inverted which historically is a sign of recession looming. Once recessions hit, as the charts show the yield tends to show a growth curve. With recent 0.75 basis-point rate hikes by the Fed, the home price index is beginning to show inverted traces. This is in line with a plummeting housing market due to mortgage rate hikes. With high inflation, and Fed policy trends, the Unemployment rate is also expected to raise which is in line with historical recession trends on unemployment rates. Consumer Sentiment is also a huge indicator for these trends. Recently sentiment has fallen to a 14-year low to numbers not seen since the Great Recession of 2007. These numbers are showing consumers preparing for a bearish winter with tight finances. Lastly if you look at the Consumer price index, it has been trending upward until it recently dipped. Each of the major recessions that have occurred began after long sustained consumer price index growth. What followed were recessions which seems to be coming in the near future. With the Fed rate hikes most likely continuing, a looming recession seems likely with hopes of stability by 2024-2025. Current financial conditions are indicators for these claims as well, but they only further backup the trends from both the financial and economic data provided above.