What is your reading of the economy?
Prior to a recession home prices and consumer spending seemed to dip
below 0 in the years 2007, 2010, 2012, and almost in 2019. Which are
good indicators that a recession is to occur soon. The Treasury Yield
also indicates the same thing dipping dramatically below zero prior to
the 1990, 2001, 2010, and 2019 recessions. Approximately every 10 years
there seems to be a recession lasting about a year. The consumer
Sentiment index (CSI) indicates a consumers capability in terms of
housing, employment, and savings. During a recession money is less
secure and inflation seems to rise so the CSI dips below 0 right at the
start of the recession. The consumer price index is a great indicator of
inflation, as I mentioned before when a recession hits typically
inflation also rises and the graph shows a rise in prices even before
the recession hits in 1990, 2001, 2007, and again in 2021.
S&P/ Home price Index: Measures the Home price, Usually an
increase in home prices means an increase in jobs and promote higher
confidence in consumer spending. Exchange Volatility Index: Measure of the expected rapid change
in the US stock market. Treasury Yield Spread: This indicates the likeliness of a
recession or recovery one year forward Consumer Sentiment Index: This provides an indication of future
developments of households consumption and savings based upon their
financial situation, Employment and capability of savings. Consumer Price Index: Measures the overall change in consumer
prices based on a representative basket of goods and services over time.
Most widely used to measure inflation. Unemployment Rate: Unemployment usually decreases as economic
activity slows. It can also decrease when the economy expands and we
need more workers to meet their production needs. |