Regresi dengan Peubah Lag pada Transaksi Bitcoin

LIBRARY

library(dLagM) #bisa otomatis timeseries datanya
## Loading required package: nardl
## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
##   method            from
##   as.zoo.data.frame zoo
## Loading required package: dynlm
## Loading required package: zoo
## 
## Attaching package: 'zoo'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     as.Date, as.Date.numeric
library(dynlm) #data harus timeseries
library(MLmetrics) #MAPE
## 
## Attaching package: 'MLmetrics'
## The following object is masked from 'package:dLagM':
## 
##     MAPE
## The following object is masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     Recall
library(lmtest)
library(car)
## Loading required package: carData

DATA

Data yang digunakan adalah dataset yang berisi transaksi harian bitcoin. Data ini berasal dari situs web kaggle https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/sushilkumarinfo/bitcoin-transactional-data. Variabel yang akan digunakan untuk analisis adalah Price USD dan Transactions dengan jumlah amatan 4389.

Import Data

dataset<-read.csv("C:/Users/user/Documents/G-tak/BTC_DATA.csv")

Xt <- dataset$priceUSD
Yt <- dataset$transactions
data.utama = data.frame(Xt, Yt)
head(data.utama)
##       Xt  Yt
## 1 0.0726 248
## 2 0.0859 354
## 3 0.0783 413
## 4 0.0767 256
## 5 0.0649 221
## 6 0.0566 217

Split Data

Dataset akan di split menjadi 2, yaitu data training dan data testing. Data training akan digunakan untuk pemodelan. Sedangkan data testing digunakan untuk forecasting.

#SPLIT DATA
train<-data.utama[1:3510,]
test<-data.utama[3511:4388,]
train <- as.data.frame(train)
test <- as.data.frame(test)

#data time series
train.ts<-ts(train)
test.ts<-ts(test)
data.ts<-ts(data.utama)

MODEL KOYCK

Metode Koyck didasari asumsi bahwa semakin jauh jarak lag pada variabel bebas dari periode sekarang maka semakin kecil pengaruh variabel lag terhadap variabel takbebas (Aqibah et al. 2020)

model.koyck = dLagM::koyckDlm(x = train$Xt, y = train$Yt)
summary(model.koyck)
## 
## Call:
## "Y ~ (Intercept) + Y.1 + X.t"
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -108215   -7092   -2466    5179  121747 
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 2.826e+03  5.686e+02   4.970 7.03e-07 ***
## Y.1         9.708e-01  4.204e-03 230.945  < 2e-16 ***
## X.t         6.509e-01  1.426e-01   4.565 5.18e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 21150 on 3506 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-Squared: 0.9687,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.9687 
## Wald test: 5.429e+04 on 2 and 3506 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16 
## 
## Diagnostic tests:
## NULL
## 
##                             alpha      beta       phi
## Geometric coefficients:  96742.98 0.6509124 0.9707921
AIC(model.koyck)
## [1] 79857.9
BIC(model.koyck)
## [1] 79882.55

Forecasting Koyck

fore.koyck <- forecast(model = model.koyck, x=test$Xt, h=878)
fore.koyck
## $forecasts
##   [1]  333406.6  332224.1  331013.1  329827.0  328598.7  327524.7  326506.3
##   [8]  325501.9  324694.2  323958.8  323213.1  322189.1  320737.3  319374.2
##  [15]  317985.2  315881.7  312916.6  310118.2  307346.2  304452.7  301757.1
##  [22]  299142.0  296919.8  295165.9  293384.6  291633.8  289910.1  288583.0
##  [29]  287313.5  286086.3  284907.3  283465.3  281997.7  280665.4  279492.5
##  [36]  278264.6  277338.2  276503.9  275662.1  274861.8  274269.0  273842.1
##  [43]  273408.0  272990.5  272386.1  271712.0  271122.8  270419.9  269821.6
##  [50]  269187.9  268637.9  268221.8  267853.6  267514.4  267113.5  266604.5
##  [57]  266190.5  265974.7  265926.0  265893.1  265888.4  265963.3  266049.7
##  [64]  266440.8  267266.3  267998.7  268759.9  269576.3  270243.2  270971.3
##  [71]  271811.6  272846.1  274157.6  275305.2  275750.7  276187.8  276658.4
##  [78]  277287.0  278212.3  279108.0  279904.6  280818.6  281774.2  282670.7
##  [85]  283539.0  284137.8  284611.8  285123.4  285569.9  285801.5  286054.4
##  [92]  286404.7  286931.6  287536.2  288153.7  288784.4  289411.6  290224.3
##  [99]  290796.5  291448.9  292114.9  292693.7  293247.8  293843.6  294412.9
## [106]  295013.8  295509.9  295840.5  296172.4  296482.4  296676.5  297020.5
## [113]  297329.8  297608.5  297831.6  298031.2  298251.7  298543.2  298929.7
## [120]  299187.1  299302.2  299386.6  299419.1  299414.2  299450.5  299506.5
## [127]  299588.2  299653.8  299666.8  299687.2  299689.4  299778.8  299902.1
## [134]  300069.9  300224.9  300293.5  300388.0  300488.2  300601.2  300669.1
## [141]  300739.0  300748.9  300758.6  300788.7  300816.1  300856.9  300976.0
## [148]  301127.4  301381.1  301630.1  301912.1  302321.9  303101.8  304226.7
## [155]  305390.4  306481.6  307645.2  309032.5  310214.6  311307.5  312364.6
## [162]  313526.8  314847.8  316105.5  317303.0  318460.3  319727.0  320790.7
## [169]  321710.1  322659.2  323712.2  324815.1  325869.5  327022.6  328218.2
## [176]  329140.0  330033.6  330869.8  331558.0  332268.3  333030.8  333628.5
## [183]  334136.5  334593.8  335096.4  335628.5  336210.9  336825.0  337540.4
## [190]  338049.3  338199.7  337912.2  337558.9  337167.7  336761.2  336361.5
## [197]  335994.9  335739.9  335469.5  335252.6  335058.3  334940.0  334998.3
## [204]  335134.3  335265.7  335414.1  335615.4  335751.6  335730.2  335568.2
## [211]  335391.4  335221.0  335206.7  335222.0  335237.6  335358.1  335376.9
## [218]  335404.8  335441.8  335327.2  335229.7  335170.8  335178.1  335191.1
## [225]  335142.4  335168.1  335355.1  335763.9  336179.5  336637.7  337087.1
## [232]  337493.4  337893.1  338250.4  338583.1  338961.3  339425.5  340048.6
## [239]  341043.4  342323.5  343570.8  344840.3  346093.5  347319.2  348696.6
## [246]  350094.9  351364.5  352672.6  354139.6  355585.3  356877.5  358139.1
## [253]  359550.6  361446.9  363855.3  366047.6  368071.1  370158.5  372146.6
## [260]  374247.1  376503.6  378935.1  381136.7  383244.8  385528.2  388205.8
## [267]  391330.4  394337.7  397572.3  400961.6  404071.7  407099.4  410302.9
## [274]  413553.5  415631.2  417379.4  419285.5  421577.2  424393.0  427370.0
## [281]  430048.5  432862.9  435499.5  437972.4  440471.5  442933.9  445160.5
## [288]  446878.0  448572.1  449978.5  451684.9  453761.3  455809.5  457919.1
## [295]  460425.2  464512.1  468659.3  472989.4  477357.6  481378.9  485170.2
## [302]  489161.8  492870.9  496931.2  501679.3  507466.3  513030.3  518236.4
## [309]  524234.3  530543.9  536919.2  544047.5  552760.3  560177.7  567631.1
## [316]  576564.3  587303.3  598874.2  610499.6  621354.0  628367.2  635530.4
## [323]  642349.6  651470.4  659674.6  667227.1  673785.8  680394.3  687344.9
## [330]  692990.5  697035.3  700232.9  703660.6  706919.2  710809.1  713735.9
## [337]  716005.7  718588.7  723228.6  727099.1  730462.0  733888.8  737858.6
## [344]  742923.8  748478.9  753921.9  760635.3  766438.0  773512.9  784131.8
## [351]  793844.2  803581.5  813913.2  823733.4  834114.4  843725.4  853701.4
## [358]  864721.7  876073.6  887847.1  901368.8  914983.6  926708.3  934349.1
## [365]  942293.3  950136.9  955574.8  961165.0  965092.2  970701.3  976829.3
## [372]  983933.7  990186.8  995145.6 1000533.6 1006807.6 1013278.5 1021637.5
## [379] 1030655.2 1040000.5 1049447.8 1059876.6 1071109.4 1079824.5 1087132.2
## [386] 1094745.3 1103659.1 1112183.0 1120782.2 1128171.3 1135017.9 1140296.3
## [393] 1145709.6 1149001.5 1152901.0 1157966.9 1163314.4 1169205.5 1175861.2
## [400] 1182551.0 1189154.7 1195824.6 1202082.9 1207359.1 1212728.6 1218185.3
## [407] 1222517.3 1226852.4 1231733.2 1237550.0 1243150.0 1248790.9 1255595.5
## [414] 1263040.4 1269917.0 1275832.5 1281298.0 1283204.7 1285253.6 1286677.0
## [421] 1288015.9 1288248.2 1285921.5 1283783.8 1281435.1 1281331.1 1282260.5
## [428] 1283294.2 1283715.8 1285016.2 1287923.5 1290142.5 1292981.4 1294042.4
## [435] 1295439.6 1297513.2 1299424.8 1302392.9 1304918.9 1307229.2 1308228.2
## [442] 1309268.9 1306300.9 1303638.3 1300200.7 1296123.5 1289950.9 1283864.9
## [449] 1274672.1 1266190.5 1257508.1 1248024.2 1237236.2 1228015.7 1219762.9
## [456] 1212510.8 1205184.8 1196648.5 1187477.0 1178713.3 1170644.3 1163100.6
## [463] 1156230.3 1150370.3 1143756.0 1137002.9 1130021.3 1123201.3 1114620.6
## [470] 1107563.8 1102117.1 1096829.4 1090874.8 1085509.3 1082444.7 1079823.7
## [477] 1076770.8 1073276.0 1068840.5 1063722.3 1058312.8 1051822.0 1044762.5
## [484] 1039037.9 1033481.7 1027846.4 1021146.7 1015670.5 1011268.8 1007693.4
## [491] 1003822.8  999284.8  994589.1  990689.9  987537.9  983715.7  980039.7
## [498]  976734.0  972443.7  968452.5  964930.7  961570.3  958246.9  954469.9
## [505]  950565.0  946526.7  942372.8  938213.9  934311.2  930148.2  925227.5
## [512]  921319.4  918147.7  915294.6  913417.8  911922.0  913033.1  913705.0
## [519]  915782.7  917799.8  919601.1  922659.4  925558.1  927120.4  927908.0
## [526]  928828.9  930181.7  932741.6  936654.1  940973.7  945519.3  950402.8
## [533]  955459.9  959622.1  964447.8  969758.6  974470.5  979370.1  983508.3
## [540]  986980.1  990399.4  995378.6 1001037.1 1006433.3 1012320.3 1017410.4
## [547] 1021924.2 1025720.9 1029642.5 1034208.4 1038482.8 1042269.1 1045437.8
## [554] 1048758.1 1053265.6 1057798.3 1062307.3 1066864.3 1072221.6 1076272.9
## [561] 1077796.2 1079348.0 1080543.2 1081338.4 1082277.6 1082657.6 1083820.7
## [568] 1085944.3 1088227.2 1090232.6 1092596.0 1094577.9 1094505.5 1093009.8
## [575] 1091591.0 1091217.9 1090253.0 1088943.4 1087817.8 1087206.7 1085588.3
## [582] 1083959.9 1083283.1 1084404.4 1086688.1 1089026.8 1091354.4 1094841.0
## [589] 1100011.9 1106101.2 1112043.9 1118021.3 1124081.9 1130948.4 1137612.3
## [596] 1143661.8 1150615.7 1158716.5 1167605.3 1175941.5 1184647.4 1193665.9
## [603] 1203833.5 1213406.1 1221300.8 1228207.3 1234688.9 1242206.1 1249341.7
## [610] 1254443.7 1259813.3 1265894.4 1271858.4 1277307.8 1282718.4 1288748.2
## [617] 1294828.3 1300080.7 1304960.2 1309336.0 1314343.6 1321561.2 1329754.0
## [624] 1337227.8 1343240.0 1348596.2 1353710.1 1358959.7 1364488.2 1367096.7
## [631] 1368949.4 1370226.6 1370242.8 1371210.2 1372461.7 1372537.0 1372298.9
## [638] 1371980.5 1372601.6 1371736.1 1370076.3 1368412.4 1368738.0 1368907.7
## [645] 1369095.2 1368834.0 1368044.0 1362855.5 1357825.0 1352760.5 1349260.9
## [652] 1345413.8 1340895.4 1335960.8 1331298.6 1327483.4 1322934.1 1317829.7
## [659] 1313490.1 1309579.3 1304799.1 1299854.6 1295432.1 1290638.8 1287269.2
## [666] 1284376.8 1281624.8 1280235.5 1278754.1 1276868.7 1275636.5 1273024.7
## [673] 1269647.4 1266042.1 1262676.1 1259281.6 1256074.0 1252694.0 1249158.1
## [680] 1245385.7 1239890.6 1233854.9 1227789.2 1222028.2 1216242.2 1211005.3
## [687] 1206563.1 1202418.7 1197947.4 1193856.1 1189861.4 1185626.8 1181115.5
## [694] 1176726.9 1172661.1 1166424.1 1158300.7 1150344.2 1142416.5 1135638.0
## [701] 1129698.7 1123190.2 1117318.3 1112125.0 1107171.8 1102105.0 1097836.4
## [708] 1093370.9 1088216.3 1084402.8 1082583.2 1080862.2 1080167.3 1079988.6
## [715] 1079859.4 1080000.2 1079391.0 1078244.9 1077134.3 1075988.5 1075940.3
## [722] 1075978.8 1075149.2 1072876.0 1070444.0 1067238.1 1063956.7 1060050.5
## [729] 1056792.8 1052260.7 1049615.9 1047311.3 1044746.6 1042662.3 1043434.6
## [736] 1044459.6 1044852.7 1043788.5 1041549.3 1039272.0 1036629.0 1034291.7
## [743] 1033801.6 1032173.7 1030172.9 1028292.3 1026323.5 1024332.7 1022581.7
## [750] 1021640.2 1021132.3 1020610.6 1020634.7 1020605.9 1020374.3 1021015.8
## [757] 1021518.8 1022708.2 1024481.2 1026277.8 1028373.6 1031952.0 1035584.8
## [764] 1038912.3 1041773.5 1043803.2 1046376.5 1048790.6 1050951.9 1053248.0
## [771] 1054363.2 1054677.2 1054885.7 1054533.6 1054388.2 1053259.7 1051313.5
## [778] 1049767.7 1048427.2 1046814.1 1045360.7 1043897.0 1042047.8 1041157.4
## [785] 1040561.1 1040141.1 1038719.9 1037037.5 1035378.9 1033496.0 1031972.7
## [792] 1029918.5 1028448.2 1026686.4 1024590.6 1022262.6 1020410.0 1018338.1
## [799] 1016681.4 1014840.8 1011561.4 1008193.6 1004071.5  998855.1  992902.0
## [806]  986640.4  979223.5  973088.7  966624.7  960820.1  955107.7  949746.9
## [813]  944113.1  938595.0  933417.8  928080.0  923193.6  918652.3  913725.6
## [820]  909233.1  904675.9  899891.8  895237.1  890884.9  887600.4  885142.2
## [827]  882355.5  878964.7  875643.7  872227.7  868986.9  866763.8  863814.2
## [834]  861248.8  858614.5  855676.9  852312.3  848233.6  842067.5  834722.3
## [841]  827048.2  819670.4  812014.8  803711.8  795601.9  788398.0  781865.4
## [848]  775074.4  768613.2  762713.8  757098.0  751715.2  746283.9  740786.0
## [855]  735080.3  729027.1  723266.5  717478.2  711815.4  706540.6  701745.3
## [862]  697202.7  693182.0  689920.6  686664.6  683190.6  679385.8  675229.4
## [869]  671092.9  667448.2  664305.7  661310.3  658634.7  656416.8  654724.6
## [876]  653767.8  652427.6  651262.6
## 
## $call
## forecast.koyckDlm(model = model.koyck, x = test$Xt, h = 878)
## 
## attr(,"class")
## [1] "forecast.koyckDlm" "dLagM"

Akurasi Model Koyck

##mape data testing
mape.koyck <- MAPE(fore.koyck$forecasts, test$Yt)

##akurasi data training
mape_train <- dLagM::GoF(model.koyck)["MAPE"]

c("MAPE_testing" = mape.koyck, "MAPE_training" = mape_train)
## $MAPE_testing
## [1] 2.060016
## 
## $MAPE_training.MAPE
## [1] 0.8096704

REGRESSION WITH DISTRIBUTED LAG

Model DLM

#Penentuan lag optimum
lagop<-finiteDLMauto(formula=Yt ~ Xt,
              data = data.frame(train.ts),model.type = "dlm",error.type = "AIC");lagop
##    q - k    MASE      AIC      BIC    GMRAE   MBRAE R.Adj.Sq Ljung-Box
## 10    10 5.46499 89409.47 89489.56 12.58062 0.33595  0.49246         0
#Model DLM
model.dlm = dLagM::dlm(x = train$Xt,y = train$Yt , q = 10) 
summary(model.dlm)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = model.formula, data = design)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -206533  -65950  -29316   64307  236550 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 90737.3805  1713.4305  52.957  < 2e-16 ***
## x.t            33.6180     8.4743   3.967 7.42e-05 ***
## x.1            -9.6832    13.2712  -0.730    0.466    
## x.2            12.1181    13.4237   0.903    0.367    
## x.3             2.6618    13.3961   0.199    0.843    
## x.4            -4.3925    13.3710  -0.329    0.743    
## x.5            -4.5866    13.3691  -0.343    0.732    
## x.6             2.3666    13.3882   0.177    0.860    
## x.7             1.0990    13.4360   0.082    0.935    
## x.8            -3.6706    13.4671  -0.273    0.785    
## x.9             0.4367    13.3161   0.033    0.974    
## x.10           -6.4355     8.5015  -0.757    0.449    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 85120 on 3488 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4941, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4925 
## F-statistic: 309.6 on 11 and 3488 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## AIC and BIC values for the model:
##        AIC      BIC
## 1 89409.47 89489.56

Forecasting DLM

(fore.dlm <- forecast(model = model.dlm, x=test$Xt, h=878))
## $forecasts
##   [1]  298990.0  290805.3  284661.8  280452.9  281018.4  289230.5  288102.8
##   [8]  287861.1  299919.2  301632.3  304184.9  292693.6  273449.1  274785.5
##  [15]  262112.6  224725.5  191229.5  196528.6  168715.3  162941.3  185182.0
##  [22]  185109.4  202803.8  223685.9  225456.3  239079.1  245751.6  258831.5
##  [29]  252732.5  263836.7  263972.0  244137.8  240214.3  237636.2  241437.0
##  [36]  236698.4  257331.6  250927.1  250425.9  255681.5  264106.0  269158.2
##  [43]  270064.3  274538.1  260319.9  257172.0  255521.4  245559.0  253481.2
##  [50]  248432.2  251452.8  254199.5  257055.6  259641.8  258381.3  254086.6
##  [57]  256615.9  264327.3  270313.6  273794.6  278055.7  279054.1  276900.5
##  [64]  294184.7  314011.3  309373.5  320444.2  320589.8  306876.1  312453.5
##  [71]  318116.2  325533.3  338886.1  330802.1  298226.9  305268.7  291900.8
##  [78]  295837.8  317857.9  319224.7  316174.5  321915.1  319472.3  318429.6
##  [85]  328938.5  315162.9  309243.5  307589.2  299251.8  290940.6  297479.8
##  [92]  296865.3  303138.2  310636.5  316337.0  320321.0  320720.6  330806.7
##  [99]  317183.7  330921.7  326645.0  320833.0  320616.4  323160.3  319692.6
## [106]  322128.9  318997.5  310121.4  313047.7  308457.6  302707.4  314276.0
## [113]  309567.3  309744.3  308992.4  308317.1  308335.1  313704.1  319453.7
## [120]  312882.9  310949.6  307485.9  301669.7  300131.5  304313.3  304526.9
## [127]  305285.5  304963.9  302550.8  304149.9  303473.9  308665.2  309761.9
## [134]  313831.3  313056.9  309350.4  311163.2  309387.6  310853.7  309006.0
## [141]  310621.6  305184.6  305462.9  305706.3  305261.3  307438.0  311368.1
## [148]  312111.5  318193.4  318465.1  321958.2  328572.0  346409.2  361623.5
## [155]  367259.1  371316.8  375354.9  381787.9  368492.8  374314.5  370901.1
## [162]  370639.5  373944.5  371588.4  373816.5  371852.3  376494.9  362545.9
## [169]  364686.4  366998.0  368145.9  369926.0  371220.6  380505.4  379981.1
## [176]  368482.4  373142.7  368414.2  360557.2  364587.3  366326.5  356102.3
## [183]  356486.5  353944.3  353376.1  356759.1  362958.1  365907.9  372932.3
## [190]  362227.6  348642.3  329428.8  324414.3  314399.1  313804.8  316937.7
## [197]  318134.4  322154.4  320009.1  328638.3  332028.3  339783.8  348533.6
## [204]  352178.4  354270.2  356577.2  357994.5  351725.6  346181.6  339912.3
## [211]  336411.3  332555.3  339436.7  339661.3  342241.8  348363.5  340772.9
## [218]  344694.2  345529.2  338419.4  340898.3  340719.1  341363.2  341361.1
## [225]  341097.8  344114.2  350317.3  361163.5  362466.3  371264.6  369672.4
## [232]  366296.3  366015.2  363906.4  363372.5  364402.4  366925.0  372889.3
## [239]  392597.3  405898.9  408178.7  417385.6  415568.6  412741.5  422009.8
## [246]  422555.3  417586.1  421494.5  424347.5  418468.1  417116.0  420380.1
## [253]  424601.5  446946.1  472071.6  466710.1  474312.1  476068.8  461555.2
## [260]  471680.9  484898.5  494546.1  481575.5  483191.4  486172.9  503330.5
## [267]  529684.1  530429.2  556456.4  558256.4  543921.9  549198.1  561343.9
## [274]  558834.0  501591.6  506035.6  492268.5  498519.0  530597.1  551181.7
## [281]  546542.8  559752.3  545449.5  541076.1  558439.4  559094.8  545232.7
## [288]  522166.2  522717.1  495909.3  519586.8  534627.0  538184.6  553409.3
## [295]  576300.3  653269.0  645802.0  698301.4  706927.5  685863.8  673349.7
## [302]  686342.3  667515.6  690563.0  722545.3  759467.6  751700.8  764990.3
## [309]  810551.9  805901.7  826374.3  885653.0  965108.7  881814.6  938661.5
## [316]  995221.3 1055246.7 1114354.5 1166319.2 1144035.1  941742.1  988150.8
## [323]  888355.7 1020402.3  965728.2  999802.2  927104.8  911534.6  922072.8
## [330]  874660.6  873660.9  822565.2  816737.3  769317.8  841224.6  800712.3
## [337]  797736.6  810291.0  898262.5  853475.9  908035.4  926609.5  919560.0
## [344]  969587.7 1008141.9 1035278.5 1111081.2 1044917.2 1127317.4 1297862.4
## [351] 1229940.0 1318473.2 1354950.4 1286874.0 1318681.0 1304344.4 1332875.7
## [358] 1369252.5 1384345.5 1399704.3 1516983.0 1512659.6 1444468.5 1292611.3
## [365] 1322550.9 1229071.4 1115537.0 1192646.5 1071031.4 1153502.7 1132814.4
## [372] 1239517.2 1218652.3 1227614.6 1251506.9 1260402.6 1302560.2 1429132.1
## [379] 1471957.2 1489240.3 1513060.7 1569610.7 1602348.2 1501048.7 1492840.3
## [386] 1471321.9 1490419.0 1454922.2 1522786.8 1458111.2 1430067.2 1338478.2
## [393] 1362965.4 1254702.5 1333110.8 1358623.7 1354746.3 1423798.3 1480818.6
## [400] 1490196.1 1500750.2 1543473.0 1515724.3 1490725.2 1506134.1 1482871.0
## [407] 1422081.1 1449156.9 1458872.8 1492730.6 1491971.4 1535087.5 1595863.7
## [414] 1616564.4 1610072.9 1597295.4 1588268.0 1379980.3 1428465.7 1332941.9
## [421] 1329400.2 1280858.4 1171540.1 1181064.3 1117041.7 1257593.2 1296823.6
## [428] 1377820.6 1361707.5 1418005.4 1470431.1 1436468.8 1552354.9 1436773.3
## [435] 1470309.7 1446315.1 1430601.2 1504901.3 1479052.7 1480567.9 1389942.1
## [442] 1420436.0 1175593.2 1262601.4 1148936.9 1104938.2 1011938.4 1037052.9
## [449]  824859.8  891030.1  851959.2  806446.3  791758.5  875999.1  867919.8
## [456]  926315.6  975954.2  917969.8  905488.2  891302.1  903457.9  928753.7
## [463]  985364.7 1011064.0  946480.1  954330.4  926953.0  926971.0  826136.2
## [470]  928269.4  941698.4  929889.4  931507.9  968508.9 1043461.8 1028887.4
## [477] 1067009.4 1059779.8  997741.5  930311.0  898234.2  830574.4  804158.8
## [484]  854234.6  804241.0  815568.5  781756.1  850239.8  857755.0  913466.0
## [491]  923379.4  911974.8  893962.1  896884.6  920785.4  891016.4  933490.6
## [498]  915559.5  835719.9  865638.6  875840.3  872515.5  879785.2  860451.7
## [505]  841380.0  823648.5  816080.6  808106.3  825762.8  800552.0  761114.1
## [512]  816341.5  817943.4  840335.3  910592.8  923099.7 1055500.2 1005294.6
## [519] 1133512.0 1106802.6 1113376.9 1167108.7 1133155.4 1082625.1 1050129.6
## [526] 1040917.0 1000624.2 1076520.8 1143369.8 1166067.8 1202035.8 1218401.9
## [533] 1223909.7 1193547.0 1258989.8 1257417.5 1221692.9 1250786.4 1194467.5
## [540] 1160226.3 1155907.0 1232530.2 1242377.4 1269055.9 1323100.9 1259853.8
## [547] 1248825.6 1216386.4 1234326.4 1254131.0 1242127.7 1231289.7 1198712.0
## [554] 1206739.4 1249682.0 1257063.5 1294445.3 1312280.8 1346710.1 1261605.7
## [561] 1179786.2 1204450.0 1128764.7 1105617.4 1129048.0 1102415.9 1137628.4
## [568] 1174152.2 1187420.4 1204893.7 1261741.7 1223557.8 1127367.8 1090871.7
## [575] 1070018.7 1085657.2 1042774.3 1066069.9 1069390.6 1071251.9 1013960.6
## [582] 1056076.8 1106250.7 1181187.3 1240222.3 1266910.8 1293854.4 1344284.3
## [589] 1407101.7 1452464.8 1487540.7 1509969.5 1490368.8 1508592.1 1488282.2
## [596] 1483174.2 1538139.4 1559353.1 1587854.9 1582167.9 1638480.1 1631689.3
## [603] 1691341.6 1662133.9 1620543.2 1592219.5 1537358.2 1568273.3 1538268.4
## [610] 1484683.9 1522954.9 1512176.9 1486768.0 1509971.6 1552035.8 1569022.7
## [617] 1565859.1 1547669.3 1554709.8 1534334.9 1561179.1 1663149.9 1708705.2
## [624] 1714325.2 1682543.6 1645345.0 1599052.9 1614077.9 1646298.2 1505405.8
## [631] 1506575.8 1415208.3 1324745.3 1402692.9 1418289.0 1369579.3 1383580.2
## [638] 1375947.9 1398396.9 1342462.5 1365085.7 1349151.1 1431180.4 1390149.1
## [645] 1446437.7 1442329.1 1400634.0 1167589.4 1224191.9 1150079.4 1211697.3
## [652] 1198738.4 1199591.1 1168520.7 1153639.8 1196395.2 1157901.0 1203421.7
## [659] 1223836.0 1210268.2 1153974.1 1181460.0 1193881.4 1143955.7 1233035.9
## [666] 1233147.6 1253209.8 1334366.1 1306404.1 1294672.3 1343158.2 1252846.6
## [673] 1221144.7 1205255.7 1183628.2 1158102.6 1183820.3 1160701.3 1146220.7
## [680] 1137970.0 1040648.5 1040560.8 1015863.1 1012278.1 1005169.7 1048006.4
## [687] 1071903.3 1076642.3 1075614.0 1105897.9 1104680.7 1090880.1 1084136.5
## [694] 1082520.0 1079395.7  954868.7  887527.7  871014.9  815079.5  868647.6
## [701]  917057.9  895778.0  938914.9  951883.5  950739.5  972477.7 1041282.5
## [708]  997749.7  966471.2 1036084.3 1088281.0 1083024.1 1177803.6 1191624.3
## [715] 1175553.2 1196046.0 1156336.9 1132966.1 1126635.1 1100312.7 1134127.0
## [722] 1128895.0 1094451.8 1028272.5 1018997.3  939517.1  949147.1  921786.7
## [729]  956288.9  864890.1  981122.9  954742.7  969277.2 1028859.8 1163345.1
## [736] 1136272.9 1157386.2 1126930.9 1037492.0 1013312.6  961808.0  987791.8
## [743] 1072147.3  987903.5  990137.7  989529.4  965097.7  971966.4 1012216.4
## [750] 1047421.0 1051625.3 1065455.4 1086870.5 1081249.6 1078709.2 1127820.9
## [757] 1104458.4 1151568.5 1174435.0 1170929.3 1189187.0 1267486.4 1247356.8
## [764] 1257860.9 1254832.0 1194460.2 1216653.0 1187406.8 1186439.0 1198246.0
## [771] 1130234.9 1088980.4 1078643.6 1039168.8 1057699.5 1014777.3  984283.6
## [778]  996448.5  988877.6  978042.5 1016398.8 1017931.0  988625.4 1053177.0
## [785] 1050169.5 1075428.4 1040298.5 1039174.9 1011889.5  991462.4 1019031.7
## [792]  984946.2 1027341.5  982346.8  977257.1  963900.3  991896.1  966175.1
## [799]  999190.9  988998.8  911856.2  926853.4  854103.3  797991.4  767362.7
## [806]  745811.4  657368.5  734960.8  681867.2  734099.4  744578.5  769043.9
## [813]  747460.1  770607.3  786541.5  763113.4  805081.7  796438.9  774554.6
## [820]  796421.2  777251.2  758741.7  766917.9  773464.8  811980.8  844897.2
## [827]  834069.9  815391.2  817864.1  782045.7  788464.4  845618.5  791344.4
## [834]  829207.9  799410.1  773098.2  753254.1  726152.6  610454.2  555935.7
## [841]  514137.4  487761.9  472472.8  453954.3  463375.2  483109.0  507992.7
## [848]  513109.5  566665.8  581994.8  581535.4  596923.1  598526.2  592199.9
## [855]  567655.2  538098.0  540289.1  523200.1  525680.9  535551.3  548663.0
## [862]  552067.3  582653.0  616604.7  608514.7  611170.1  591565.5  562434.3
## [869]  551182.3  564590.7  576270.7  580140.0  599138.6  609088.6  628477.0
## [876]  668500.5  651821.8  678711.2
## 
## $call
## forecast.dlm(model = model.dlm, x = test$Xt, h = 878)
## 
## attr(,"class")
## [1] "forecast.dlm" "dLagM"

Akurasi Model DLM

#mape data testing
mape.dlm <- MAPE(fore.dlm$forecasts, test$Yt)

#akurasi data training
mape_train <- GoF(model.dlm)["MAPE"]

c("MAPE_testing" = mape.dlm, "MAPE_training" = mape_train)
## $MAPE_testing
## [1] 2.195145
## 
## $MAPE_training.MAPE
## [1] 21.98604

AUTOREGRESSIVE / DYNAMIC REGRESSION MODEL

Model ARDLM

model.ardl = ardlDlm(x = train$Xt, y = train$Yt, p = 1 , q = 1)
summary(model.ardl)
## 
## Time series regression with "ts" data:
## Start = 2, End = 3510
## 
## Call:
## dynlm(formula = as.formula(model.text), data = data, start = 1)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -108276   -7093   -2478    5168  121218 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  2.844e+03  5.686e+02   5.001 5.99e-07 ***
## X.t          2.886e+00  2.056e+00   1.404    0.161    
## X.1         -2.227e+00  2.053e+00  -1.084    0.278    
## Y.1          9.705e-01  4.199e-03 231.116  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 21150 on 3505 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.9687, Adjusted R-squared:  0.9687 
## F-statistic: 3.62e+04 on 3 and 3505 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Forecasting ARDLM

fore.ardl <- forecast(model = model.ardl, x=test$Xt, h=878)
fore.ardl
## $forecasts
##   [1]  332389.0  330646.7  329259.2  328082.4  326635.5  326019.2  325122.7
##   [8]  324101.0  323904.6  323358.3  322519.7  320484.4  317506.6  316386.9
##  [15]  314850.6  310236.6  304249.0  301950.3  299200.2  295822.9  293740.0
##  [22]  291339.8  290406.4  290207.8  288285.5  286594.1  284919.2  284911.6
##  [29]  283803.5  282686.5  281639.5  279262.2  277672.3  276770.8  276113.7
##  [36]  274668.6  274748.8  274206.8  273316.7  272637.1  272736.3  272860.6
##  [43]  272387.0  272011.5  270750.5  269821.3  269506.6  268398.3  268142.6
##  [50]  267373.4  267095.9  267126.3  266911.6  266661.5  266039.1  265148.8
##  [57]  265049.5  265504.7  266022.6  266038.7  266126.6  266470.5  266593.2
##  [64]  268027.8  270346.2  270765.1  271629.8  272641.0  272800.4  273742.7
##  [71]  274972.8  276679.9  278950.7  279546.6  277590.5  277999.0  278584.8
##  [78]  279757.2  281704.0  282504.3  282966.5  284287.9  285392.4  286092.0
##  [85]  286869.2  286547.8  286594.6  287235.5  287459.2  286953.2  287276.3
##  [92]  287958.9  289091.2  289963.8  290627.8  291306.2  291924.1  293375.9
##  [99]  293126.8  294056.6  294771.4  295053.7  295524.6  296265.2  296745.4
## [106]  297456.1  297594.4  297357.3  297692.9  297925.8  297720.9  298576.9
## [113]  298765.9  298938.7  298969.1  299086.2  299376.0  299909.4  300621.1
## [120]  300435.3  300060.5  300036.5  299887.4  299750.3  299923.7  300044.1
## [127]  300210.9  300218.6  300047.8  300090.3  300026.9  300412.3  300649.5
## [134]  300968.7  301079.0  300849.1  301030.7  301148.6  301303.5  301215.6
## [141]  301290.1  301092.2  301098.2  301196.5  301212.0  301297.1  301682.9
## [148]  301944.4  302549.1  302782.3  303178.7  304028.5  306082.1  308398.8
## [155]  309706.6  310560.6  311982.5  314149.2  314640.0  315437.3  316380.7
## [162]  317912.8  319788.7  320840.4  321841.9  322870.9  324522.2  324899.0
## [169]  325330.3  326387.4  327802.5  329084.1  329979.5  331478.6  332828.0
## [176]  332817.8  333619.4  334263.1  334446.4  335235.0  336178.7  336213.2
## [183]  336413.9  336697.1  337354.2  337987.7  338742.6  339466.9  340530.9
## [190]  340333.5  339252.6  337457.1  336868.4  336337.3  335868.3  335481.3
## [197]  335218.8  335338.0  335007.5  334966.7  334843.4  334979.8  335639.4
## [204]  336039.4  336153.1  336358.0  336739.6  336651.4  336087.2  335438.9
## [211]  335206.2  335053.0  335569.5  335684.0  335697.9  336176.6  335844.8
## [218]  335902.2  335967.8  335331.4  335288.7  335359.3  335591.0  335621.5
## [225]  335359.7  335638.1  336377.7  337548.3  337991.0  338598.4  339021.2
## [232]  339283.1  339662.8  339877.8  340127.6  340664.4  341426.1  342598.4
## [239]  344874.9  347144.5  348292.0  349649.7  350859.4  352002.5  353911.9
## [246]  355395.0  356235.5  357686.5  359710.9  361096.2  361873.6  363040.5
## [253]  364976.8  368549.0  372733.5  374206.5  375670.0  377994.3  379658.9
## [260]  382162.0  384971.8  388022.9  389455.9  391260.0  394161.7  398210.6
## [267]  402892.8  405524.6  409564.7  413513.3  415693.2  418462.9  422293.8
## [274]  425731.1  423806.5  424433.9  426888.7  430513.3  435141.9  438691.6
## [281]  440365.9  443663.9  445707.8  447634.8  450236.9  452587.6  454017.0
## [288]  453996.9  455614.2  456036.1  458772.9  462123.7  464083.9  466411.8
## [295]  470288.6  479817.3  484203.8  489194.2  493727.6  496591.4  499621.7
## [302]  504327.3  507093.8  512384.0  519522.2  528912.1  533757.5  537778.9
## [309]  546534.5  553962.2  560613.4  570378.1  584590.3  587636.2  595272.3
## [316]  609346.2  626361.6  640885.3  652802.0  661110.9  655025.0  662746.2
## [323]  668428.6  685492.9  690616.0  695985.2  699176.6  705989.7  714148.2
## [330]  715349.4  713917.7  714207.6  718417.0  721089.7  727140.5  726761.4
## [337]  726765.1  730406.2  742097.0  743337.4  744960.8  748604.3  754437.4
## [344]  763269.7  770526.2  775608.8  786708.0  789421.1  800891.8  823722.3
## [351]  830406.0  840300.0  852742.9  860883.5  873258.6  880300.2  891593.5
## [358]  906267.1  918836.6  932139.1  951748.9  965788.7  971126.2  964821.9
## [365]  973836.7  981367.2  978574.4  984689.1  982909.3  994277.8 1002193.2
## [372] 1012662.3 1016015.9 1016543.0 1023403.1 1032723.5 1039885.1 1054744.9
## [379] 1066064.5 1076582.4 1086430.6 1100281.8 1114337.7 1114478.0 1116992.7
## [386] 1125676.8 1139083.6 1146310.3 1155204.2 1158475.4 1163481.0 1163389.8
## [393] 1169262.9 1165269.5 1171229.0 1180283.0 1186594.9 1194353.8 1203643.3
## [400] 1210467.8 1216794.2 1223708.5 1228571.6 1230488.3 1236179.4 1241938.8
## [407] 1242413.1 1246749.7 1253496.6 1262526.8 1267393.4 1273182.9 1283993.0
## [414] 1293660.1 1298616.2 1301255.1 1305187.3 1294880.3 1297381.8 1296624.6
## [421] 1297634.1 1294027.4 1282862.0 1281293.2 1278144.4 1285672.1 1290103.1
## [428] 1291461.8 1289750.4 1294031.2 1302430.8 1302280.7 1307235.2 1302185.6
## [435] 1304710.8 1309086.2 1310428.6 1317011.2 1318018.5 1319582.6 1316070.5
## [442] 1317231.5 1300475.3 1298791.9 1292629.2 1286283.5 1272838.0 1266948.3
## [449] 1246989.4 1240817.2 1231324.6 1218967.7 1203574.2 1199596.2 1194548.6
## [456] 1190629.1 1182959.8 1170179.4 1158725.5 1151256.0 1145473.5 1139645.3
## [463] 1135007.1 1132546.5 1123284.6 1115990.2 1108159.0 1101827.5 1087137.3
## [470] 1085230.1 1085249.5 1080465.7 1072180.8 1068791.6 1073589.0 1072480.6
## [477] 1067939.6 1062916.5 1055234.8 1047744.7 1041300.5 1031058.6 1021995.8
## [484] 1020799.0 1015782.5 1009838.9  999447.5  998123.9  997378.6  996621.0
## [491]  991726.9  984883.7  979624.9  978438.0  977838.9  971711.3  968524.8
## [498]  966480.4  958802.8  955820.7  953896.5  951082.0  947878.8  942537.8
## [505]  938181.7  933672.4  929106.0  924913.9  921874.8  916805.0  909265.8
## [512]  908810.2  908154.8  906391.7  907867.9  907691.6  917770.8  916980.6
## [519]  923926.0  925790.3  926904.0  934328.5  936742.3  933775.3  931944.9
## [526]  933355.0  936223.8  942965.3  951573.3  957356.4  962746.8  968860.2
## [533]  974586.1  975747.6  982911.7  989955.6  992681.3  998288.2  999874.4
## [540] 1001110.5 1004392.4 1014770.1 1022820.7 1027382.7 1035016.5 1037436.5
## [547] 1040026.5 1041408.1 1045795.5 1052612.6 1055931.1 1058082.2 1059163.9
## [554] 1063030.4 1071642.4 1076302.7 1080771.0 1085532.1 1093677.0 1093291.6
## [561] 1086165.2 1087814.9 1087786.9 1087204.9 1088631.0 1087084.7 1090924.2
## [568] 1096344.2 1099183.3 1100246.6 1103846.9 1104530.7 1097411.2 1091009.9
## [575] 1089820.7 1093006.5 1089990.1 1087470.7 1086948.0 1088077.7 1082980.8
## [582] 1081287.0 1083848.1 1091126.0 1097405.1 1099950.8 1102259.0 1109743.5
## [589] 1120729.8 1130024.3 1135524.8 1141679.6 1148083.3 1157774.4 1163808.7
## [596] 1167810.1 1177923.5 1190026.0 1201696.3 1208219.0 1218269.8 1228440.5
## [603] 1242634.7 1250256.5 1252473.7 1256048.6 1261119.7 1272236.6 1278116.4
## [610] 1276284.3 1282596.6 1291147.8 1296744.9 1300460.2 1305764.3 1313946.1
## [617] 1320232.3 1322674.9 1326297.1 1328960.9 1336150.0 1350976.4 1362563.9
## [624] 1367625.6 1368666.2 1371798.8 1376101.2 1381834.7 1388340.2 1380943.6
## [631] 1380188.3 1379467.9 1375126.2 1379318.1 1381516.5 1377527.6 1376175.5
## [638] 1375540.8 1379347.5 1373349.0 1368916.9 1367185.0 1374291.1 1373898.6
## [645] 1374119.7 1372290.8 1369653.9 1349323.9 1344747.4 1339481.4 1341273.0
## [652] 1336170.2 1329281.6 1322846.9 1319045.4 1318069.1 1310941.2 1303865.2
## [659] 1302081.7 1299583.8 1291765.5 1286194.4 1283501.4 1277380.0 1278840.7
## [666] 1277547.3 1275244.5 1278503.9 1276692.1 1273405.1 1274397.2 1267036.4
## [673] 1261003.7 1256579.1 1253997.3 1250470.3 1247871.1 1243867.7 1239764.5
## [680] 1235146.4 1223699.4 1215751.8 1209521.7 1204747.0 1198819.7 1195414.0
## [687] 1193654.3 1190495.9 1184870.5 1182048.3 1178355.7 1173268.4 1167776.3
## [694] 1163775.3 1160786.4 1147066.5 1132412.2 1124954.5 1117054.1 1114153.2
## [701] 1111041.4 1102535.1 1098800.3 1095896.6 1091736.6 1086250.8 1084694.2
## [708] 1079533.3 1071991.0 1072753.3 1077767.6 1076396.8 1079236.9 1080854.9
## [715] 1080924.9 1082021.7 1078868.1 1075900.0 1074925.3 1073672.4 1077407.0
## [722] 1077769.1 1073984.4 1066768.8 1063788.5 1057920.2 1054364.7 1048298.0
## [729] 1047244.7 1038322.1 1042128.4 1040985.7 1037525.5 1037085.4 1047667.3
## [736] 1049594.8 1047853.8 1041813.6 1035548.8 1033135.6 1029231.3 1027933.7
## [743] 1033780.7 1028261.6 1024981.8 1023511.4 1021237.9 1019169.2 1018238.4
## [750] 1020076.3 1021067.0 1020512.1 1022423.7 1022233.5 1021323.6 1024979.0
## [757] 1025031.9 1028601.3 1032409.3 1034324.5 1037483.4 1046192.8 1050068.0
## [764] 1052402.4 1053712.8 1052930.8 1057402.7 1059308.5 1060637.2 1063427.6
## [771] 1060520.4 1058100.1 1057953.6 1055682.0 1056246.0 1051742.6 1046977.6
## [778] 1046787.2 1046136.7 1043575.3 1042655.3 1041143.4 1037957.5 1040342.4
## [785] 1040751.1 1040934.6 1036075.7 1033484.8 1031893.2 1029226.1 1028921.3
## [792] 1025032.1 1025549.4 1022775.5 1019519.3 1016375.6 1016135.6 1013296.7
## [799] 1013049.7 1010566.2 1002332.8  998631.1  991887.8  982874.7  974339.8
## [806]  966959.6  955513.1  953706.8  946054.8  942454.3  937006.9  932804.8
## [813]  926189.5  921022.5  916971.5  911043.1  907666.5  904276.3  897996.3
## [820]  894961.2  890153.9  884562.6  880321.3  876979.8  877337.4  877705.3
## [827]  873789.2  868318.9  865224.7  861470.6  858818.9  860079.7  854636.6
## [834]  853383.4  850509.5  846527.1  841688.1  835144.6  821788.7  810348.7
## [841]  801485.2  795062.9  786395.3  775809.4  768295.8  764140.0  759861.5
## [848]  752141.3  746768.3  742757.9  738083.6  733472.4  727849.2  722097.0
## [855]  715651.3  708376.0  703588.1  697676.4  692416.1  688447.2  685277.0
## [862]  681586.4  679345.5  678685.0  675450.4  671230.2  666289.1  660920.2
## [869]  656842.6  654877.7  653456.5  650968.9  649395.7  648756.7  648882.0
## [876]  650469.2  647838.7  647296.2
## 
## $call
## forecast.ardlDlm(model = model.ardl, x = test$Xt, h = 878)
## 
## attr(,"class")
## [1] "forecast.ardlDlm" "dLagM"

Akurasi Model ARDLM

#akurasi testing
mape.ardl <- MAPE(fore.ardl$forecasts, test$Yt) #data testing

#akurasi data training
mape_train <- GoF(model.ardl)["MAPE"]

c("MAPE_testing" = mape.ardl, "MAPE_training" = mape_train)
## $MAPE_testing
## [1] 2.067048
## 
## $MAPE_training.MAPE
## [1] 0.8139763

PERBANDINGAN KEAKURATAN RAMALAN

Perbandingan

akurasi <- matrix(c(mape.koyck,mape.dlm, mape.ardl))
row.names(akurasi)<- c("Koyck","DLM","Autoregressive")
colnames(akurasi) <- c("MAPE")
akurasi
##                    MAPE
## Koyck          2.060016
## DLM            2.195145
## Autoregressive 2.067048

##Plot Perbandingan Data Aktual dengan Tiga Metode Penanganan Autokorelasi

par(mfrow=c(1,1))
plot(1:nrow(test), test$Yt, type="b", col="black",xlab="Index waktu",
     main="Perbandingan Metode Ramalan vs Aktual")
points(1:nrow(test), test$Yt,col="black",pch=19)
lines(1:nrow(test), test$Yt,col="black")
points(1:nrow(test), fore.koyck$forecasts,col="blue",pch=19)
lines(1:nrow(test), fore.koyck$forecasts,col="blue")
points(1:nrow(test), fore.dlm$forecasts,col="red",pch=19)
lines(1:nrow(test), fore.dlm$forecasts,col="red")
points(1:nrow(test), fore.ardl$forecasts,col="green",pch=19)
lines(1:nrow(test), fore.ardl$forecasts,col="green")
legend("topright",c("data aktual", "Koyck", "DLM","Autoregressive"), lty=1, 
       col=c("black", "blue", "red", "green"))

DIAGNOSTIK MODEL

Uji Normalitas

shapiro.test(residuals(model.dlm))
##             1             2             3             4             5 
##  -88946.60841  -89051.73252  -90595.87246  -90646.93274  -90613.81756 
##             6             7             8             9            10 
##  -90582.93527  -90317.79194  -90542.80410  -90441.81729  -90526.87291 
##            11            12            13            14            15 
##  -90620.74792  -90546.77290  -90504.96149  -90589.98254  -90559.87815 
##            16            17            18            19            20 
##  -90564.18403  -90437.93365  -90585.99580  -90630.98849  -90432.92695 
##            21            22            23            24            25 
##  -90550.03499  -90495.02958  -90548.97628  -90508.94123  -90569.97602 
##            26            27            28            29            30 
##  -90584.87545  -90582.90776  -90574.90575  -90589.92032  -90580.87477 
##            31            32            33            34            35 
##  -90615.88067  -90569.86696  -90640.86718  -90558.89489  -90481.80445 
##            36            37            38            39            40 
##  -90515.85033  -90573.80163  -90583.76589  -90645.81107  -90592.81128 
##            41            42            43            44            45 
##  -90618.81718  -90616.79267  -90564.82418  -90549.78479  -90555.81633 
##            46            47            48            49            50 
##  -90593.86274  -90536.82014  -90473.86463  -90517.84353  -90477.82251 
##            51            52            53            54            55 
##  -90519.83622  -90585.77304  -90576.79496  -90592.83116  -90476.82269 
##            56            57            58            59            60 
##  -90100.86387  -90239.86044  -90317.86058  -90465.84047  -90413.84884 
##            61            62            63            64            65 
##  -90543.84184  -90364.85763  -90459.84812  -89927.83954  -90519.83041 
##            66            67            68            69            70 
##  -90308.83125  -90337.82241  -90483.81711  -90484.81435  -90493.81769 
##            71            72            73            74            75 
##  -90502.84256  -90558.93607  -90530.31819  -90496.62525  -90554.87720 
##            76            77            78            79            80 
##  -90556.90976  -90543.02493  -90552.04436  -90578.11835  -90589.13439 
##            81            82            83            84            85 
##  -90557.11459  -90553.10216  -90409.97091  -90071.74261  -90290.81093 
##            86            87            88            89            90 
##  -90373.84070  -90291.87935  -90397.94207  -90393.13190  -90533.05242 
##            91            92            93            94            95 
##  -90464.15259  -90386.75628  -90475.17065  -90498.69494  -90568.96493 
##            96            97            98            99           100 
##  -90614.70702  -90568.72127  -90632.71799  -90585.58407  -90602.18996 
##           101           102           103           104           105 
##  -90520.48665  -90570.41421  -90538.41509  -90504.94852  -90553.06187 
##           106           107           108           109           110 
##  -90549.63334  -90566.13211  -90625.84823  -90624.71543  -90584.21161 
##           111           112           113           114           115 
##  -86072.97831  -81834.77456  -90553.71224  -89505.84866  -81261.81515 
##           116           117           118           119           120 
##  -81129.14577  -80840.38023  -90564.52877  -90543.06921  -86985.04481 
##           121           122           123           124           125 
##  -85942.18362  -89624.40687  -90479.44077  -90462.04174  -90498.21760 
##           126           127           128           129           130 
##  -90490.12758  -90418.17352  -90470.46513  -90547.57881  -90553.30472 
##           131           132           133           134           135 
##  -90546.94227  -90518.10100  -90407.46309  -90457.68003  -90478.94202 
##           136           137           138           139           140 
##  -90516.30548  -90367.49447  -90269.91332  -90237.30065  -90261.17513 
##           141           142           143           144           145 
##  -90297.33128  -90385.32318  -90447.55734  -90405.34831  -90376.35514 
##           146           147           148           149           150 
##  -89970.80997  -90309.46924  -90241.47960  -90369.51755  -90360.29151 
##           151           152           153           154           155 
##  -90277.24856  -90304.56449  -90383.52437  -90252.02448  -90396.41990 
##           156           157           158           159           160 
##  -90320.70479  -90351.92536  -90266.88363  -90350.90365  -89772.61840 
##           161           162           163           164           165 
##  -89906.77798  -89588.52843  -90191.74609  -89888.89538  -89478.98481 
##           166           167           168           169           170 
##  -89685.22538  -89595.30199  -89555.42461  -89750.22270  -89667.12771 
##           171           172           173           174           175 
##  -89665.45258  -89942.11843  -89990.24005  -90097.88100  -90068.75595 
##           176           177           178           179           180 
##  -89996.80101  -90007.67616  -89755.04603  -89490.86293  -89838.05820 
##           181           182           183           184           185 
##  -89617.46178  -90014.67075  -89922.53996  -90066.56661  -89825.32247 
##           186           187           188           189           190 
##  -89562.53848  -88313.13152  -89526.91536  -89904.84839  -90017.89630 
##           191           192           193           194           195 
##  -90127.44198  -89999.79653  -90109.46026  -90030.19772  -90073.72360 
##           196           197           198           199           200 
##  -90085.76909  -89730.46863  -88916.67412  -88595.87606  -89049.67719 
##           201           202           203           204           205 
##  -89140.90593  -88954.19801  -88764.66004  -88905.45723  -88743.98465 
##           206           207           208           209           210 
##  -88916.20737  -89335.92227  -89016.62832  -88978.33476  -88770.97334 
##           211           212           213           214           215 
##  -88737.06804  -88857.00727  -88923.14202  -89083.52046  -88733.84056 
##           216           217           218           219           220 
##  -89187.11196  -88159.61549  -88918.37410  -87741.25618  -88997.98366 
##           221           222           223           224           225 
##  -88988.33304  -89001.10545  -89042.26869  -88504.91120  -89083.00133 
##           226           227           228           229           230 
##  -89207.62843  -89003.58304  -87942.56350  -88164.28735  -88227.41232 
##           231           232           233           234           235 
##  -88015.92648  -87710.46986  -87530.76986  -88505.59264  -87680.40598 
##           236           237           238           239           240 
##  -86815.11155  -85047.05130  -88635.40218  -86343.00997  -88744.91804 
##           241           242           243           244           245 
##  -88932.30403  -87561.07237  -88437.10847  -87993.81505  -88201.28312 
##           246           247           248           249           250 
##  -89155.96333  -88861.77694  -89352.39943  -89163.19129  -89124.97988 
##           251           252           253           254           255 
##  -88622.23412  -88827.90833  -89038.40643  -89223.78882  -89153.51558 
##           256           257           258           259           260 
##  -89177.74823  -89183.82676  -88974.70509  -88843.03599  -88582.13091 
##           261           262           263           264           265 
##  -88041.12192  -88881.34074  -88783.36160  -88689.18716  -87880.73078 
##           266           267           268           269           270 
##  -87324.69610  -87943.61403  -89001.27740  -88851.30822  -88640.26609 
##           271           272           273           274           275 
##  -88671.95513  -88380.24420  -87526.16355  -86390.31323  -87920.63854 
##           276           277           278           279           280 
##  -87474.77882  -86545.76444  -87059.54344  -87933.60553  -88097.73212 
##           281           282           283           284           285 
##  -88229.44004  -87583.57711  -87761.36633  -87162.70086  -88157.20486 
##           286           287           288           289           290 
##  -87558.70471  -87899.47296  -87987.03988  -87704.87331  -87094.53848 
##           291           292           293           294           295 
##  -86779.97887  -87385.15034  -86862.04680  -86743.43885  -85629.87254 
##           296           297           298           299           300 
##  -86431.19349  -86321.76966  -86130.94134  -85855.14942  -85432.91744 
##           301           302           303           304           305 
##  -85335.88817  -84983.27523  -84278.44479  -86263.95871  -86096.69276 
##           306           307           308           309           310 
##  -86382.88199  -85778.56661  -85048.33098  -84622.43957  -84055.39282 
##           311           312           313           314           315 
##  -82831.76677  -82603.33287  -82837.91657  -81781.86515  -82551.90078 
##           316           317           318           319           320 
##  -79887.39432  -79616.51430  -80480.11310  -80699.72576  -79028.50314 
##           321           322           323           324           325 
##  -80185.51232  -77223.01674  -78859.32360  -78615.72721  -79968.99379 
##           326           327           328           329           330 
##  -79668.84384  -79793.64643  -80069.77726  -81669.70884  -79883.84185 
##           331           332           333           334           335 
##  -80939.22727  -80408.66660  -81574.85484  -81294.65309  -79545.50702 
##           336           337           338           339           340 
##  -80580.66122  -81299.45449  -81672.87971  -80670.27017  -83242.16289 
##           341           342           343           344           345 
##  -82884.38320  -81618.83691  -82198.46623  -80683.91948  -82006.49361 
##           346           347           348           349           350 
##  -82681.27821  -83360.37187  -82824.77394  -80699.89581  -83050.30296 
##           351           352           353           354           355 
##  -82062.76137  -82491.02416  -83225.13486  -82338.76997  -82835.86968 
##           356           357           358           359           360 
##  -82235.57534  -82008.15801  -82336.38457  -83040.50991  -82219.16284 
##           361           362           363           364           365 
##  -83789.58065  -83007.37306  -81747.67583  -82874.33429  -83249.47270 
##           366           367           368           369           370 
##  -83098.77159  -83903.51772  -84996.37020  -83125.42094  -83013.23381 
##           371           372           373           374           375 
##  -82360.60194  -83382.12927  -82771.36739  -83720.79208  -84147.39277 
##           376           377           378           379           380 
##  -84277.87467  -83747.51387  -81814.94091  -82743.64868  -83486.60076 
##           381           382           383           384           385 
##  -83921.29902  -83701.37517  -83647.90341  -82750.90095  -81531.71559 
##           386           387           388           389           390 
##  -83444.64545  -83749.26761  -83537.24454  -83981.21832  -83510.32530 
##           391           392           393           394           395 
##  -83369.53672  -83883.70182  -83762.08092  -83862.22795  -83657.30677 
##           396           397           398           399           400 
##  -84681.03392  -85448.57416  -82958.42974  -83261.34207  -83782.79597 
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##           606           607           608           609           610 
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##           616           617           618           619           620 
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##           621           622           623           624           625 
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##           676           677           678           679           680 
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##           686           687           688           689           690 
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##           711           712           713           714           715 
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##           716           717           718           719           720 
##  -66768.94002  -66533.94500  -68298.42284  -64722.31360  -59713.05157 
##           721           722           723           724           725 
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##  -50506.47850  -50362.96611  -57552.06447  -52896.29747  -51184.27768 
##           771           772           773           774           775 
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##           776           777           778           779           780 
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##           781           782           783           784           785 
##  -63916.98108  -62766.78318  -66747.54703  -58378.57926  -58949.76784 
##           786           787           788           789           790 
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##  -66988.18241  -58754.67946  -62843.64594  -58418.30156  -67206.72280 
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##  -70519.82853  -66433.26518  -58306.88266  -64508.12553  -58561.23740 
##           801           802           803           804           805 
##  -54809.58000  -58524.33623  -56420.10235  -52980.49058  -55702.39152 
##           806           807           808           809           810 
##  -59935.35565  -63467.50624  -62472.05159  -58070.53741  -63720.60008 
##           811           812           813           814           815 
##  -60176.06687  -56632.43443  -59339.88609  -62917.01200  -65797.88804 
##           816           817           818           819           820 
##  -60727.83615  -50337.76561  -48012.19265  -59109.36600  -58977.22546 
##           821           822           823           824           825 
##  -64143.13756  -69213.37540  -74829.77620  -73170.41693  -69627.39787 
##           826           827           828           829           830 
##  -60374.80551  -63383.84002  -67485.14431  -62130.46285  -67229.93633 
##           831           832           833           834           835 
##  -66838.75848  -58964.70126  -59145.25178  -54676.55972  -58734.59135 
##           836           837           838           839           840 
##  -65988.95027  -64028.46005  -67586.48985  -67225.69888  -64007.49727 
##           841           842           843           844           845 
##  -61239.64323  -53533.68644  -51711.78568  -58621.54962  -57029.87196 
##           846           847           848           849           850 
##  -54248.22304  -54311.46920  -52106.27842  -60275.32074  -58853.74038 
##           851           852           853           854           855 
##  -61472.75731  -54453.47591  -55296.62657  -63545.65705  -53947.67660 
##           856           857           858           859           860 
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##  -58805.59373  -57435.80707  -54031.61449  -59051.89944  -58029.79026 
##           866           867           868           869           870 
##  -59127.00004  -54982.74727  -54430.15121  -54461.20864  -48682.31214 
##           871           872           873           874           875 
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##           876           877           878           879           880 
##  -46429.76782  -55239.59838  -46601.33771  -39948.49448  -54435.96501 
##           881           882           883           884           885 
##  -55070.80107  -62431.50557  -54620.95479  -47423.78758  -44117.95642 
##           886           887           888           889           890 
##  -53088.07872  -45771.50312  -61147.66269  -59318.48242  -51766.49652 
##           891           892           893           894           895 
##  -48901.40519  -42609.77939  -51588.73205  -58162.41639  -50925.68579 
##           896           897           898           899           900 
##  -52560.93974  -47996.77724  -38672.02355  -38441.68271  -45524.35810 
##           901           902           903           904           905 
##  -41764.87068  -46672.19512  -46171.51079  -37581.98729  -43110.95139 
##           906           907           908           909           910 
##  -42091.57400  -35095.31069  -49877.00064  -50820.97723  -47540.57246 
##           911           912           913           914           915 
##  -44607.69816  -45099.76389  -42790.51220  -38958.50061  -35897.29036 
##           916           917           918           919           920 
##  -39141.50758  -39656.39840  -50143.78372  -39795.06002  -32010.62272 
##           921           922           923           924           925 
##  -36925.44576  -30263.86650  -36400.74717  -37979.78752  -48834.28113 
##           926           927           928           929           930 
##  -30180.90158  -30508.97169  -33696.45497  -35035.47131  -33896.58642 
##           931           932           933           934           935 
##  -32931.50148  -32427.25641  -40599.54671  -35938.99682  -40162.20318 
##           936           937           938           939           940 
##  -41966.15357  -41195.27162  -37072.99270  -31900.10401  -35728.30293 
##           941           942           943           944           945 
##  -29477.40277  -33746.03148  -34438.08686  -24494.23607  -28171.57717 
##           946           947           948           949           950 
##  -30706.84258  -28656.74514  -27176.55215  -35867.49012  -37248.98920 
##           951           952           953           954           955 
##  -27713.86879  -34931.20021  -29108.63442  -25163.32437  -36141.11246 
##           956           957           958           959           960 
##  -36498.89611  -18224.93602  -32782.33524  -43533.80838  -35310.42110 
##           961           962           963           964           965 
##  -33950.27730  -29195.70675  -57793.25709  -56658.82314  -48580.93585 
##           966           967           968           969           970 
##  -46064.34320  -46121.39432  -37056.22953  -32133.03384  -39769.76650 
##           971           972           973           974           975 
##  -41366.47216  -43735.56487  -43698.69522  -39823.99242  -32262.26421 
##           976           977           978           979           980 
##  -30965.79417  -34072.07543  -49286.10099  -40650.04861  -30517.19581 
##           981           982           983           984           985 
##  -30205.98682  -27351.48991  -33128.40360  -42870.74182  -31191.89470 
##           986           987           988           989           990 
##  -33722.88608  -29397.12424  -31834.22794  -25629.32261  -34891.98916 
##           991           992           993           994           995 
##  -39354.69538  -36612.07402  -37910.68517  -24485.99603  -35440.85828 
##           996           997           998           999          1000 
##  -45692.61515  -33087.38916  -44917.56809  -49528.66850  -46689.58618 
##          1001          1002          1003          1004          1005 
##  -32338.54594  -29407.36378  -32018.01529  -39284.35757  -50021.21603 
##          1006          1007          1008          1009          1010 
##  -52230.69567  -42330.31440  -46506.31347  -38547.49509  -38116.76146 
##          1011          1012          1013          1014          1015 
##  -41779.30967  -42798.20353  -42883.84844  -39956.36462  -36685.70426 
##          1016          1017          1018          1019          1020 
##  -42982.96234  -26495.18631  -25442.68582  -20084.81614  -28121.66002 
##          1021          1022          1023          1024          1025 
##  -32637.29086  -26996.75527  -29118.49928  -32219.72904  -34724.01623 
##          1026          1027          1028          1029          1030 
##  -41301.48073  -45768.78785  -44777.28943  -39697.78662  -41679.16276 
##          1031          1032          1033          1034          1035 
##  -33988.08112  -38593.00031  -42792.41647  -53392.09257  -41367.60544 
##          1036          1037          1038          1039          1040 
##  -36928.18663  -38952.70636  -36576.58649  -39609.39907  -39707.76528 
##          1041          1042          1043          1044          1045 
##  -43939.38369  -37875.22232  -36090.39384  -37097.25242  -38978.21708 
##          1046          1047          1048          1049          1050 
##  -41315.19379  -45204.25328  -48742.66399  -48156.53398  -43565.77230 
##          1051          1052          1053          1054          1055 
##  -47392.63519  -50115.54010  -43049.72300  -57326.21048  -50165.80596 
##          1056          1057          1058          1059          1060 
##  -47166.96497  -47234.91887  -46293.49183  -40881.51582  -46385.10895 
##          1061          1062          1063          1064          1065 
##  -48743.26365  -54777.36305  -48929.82382  -48529.02822  -47543.07962 
##          1066          1067          1068          1069          1070 
##  -46971.20422  -43419.73684  -56357.37409  -61920.69304  -53555.99140 
##          1071          1072          1073          1074          1075 
##  -53041.11075  -57151.29195  -57265.17026  -55376.50986  -58857.18224 
##          1076          1077          1078          1079          1080 
##  -62019.79615  -52780.23275  -51590.18871  -53428.19784  -49392.16439 
##          1081          1082          1083          1084          1085 
##  -44619.06731  -55076.87601  -58203.06258  -56438.23626  -53818.68787 
##          1086          1087          1088          1089          1090 
##  -52525.51903  -51882.40631  -56218.39871  -59248.47462  -57429.79243 
##          1091          1092          1093          1094          1095 
##  -52869.48289  -54425.21600  -50548.80185  -50406.60938  -55629.19935 
##          1096          1097          1098          1099          1100 
##  -56122.29527  -55724.25652  -51326.05260  -51043.94761  -43759.60828 
##          1101          1102          1103          1104          1105 
##  -42366.77540  -41609.47206  -47494.21442  -50251.04495  -42228.30508 
##          1106          1107          1108          1109          1110 
##  -38895.33355  -35666.87432  -35210.31940  -43518.52104  -41440.14404 
##          1111          1112          1113          1114          1115 
##  -54683.79992  -42912.66914  -40058.31936  -41519.36029  -35067.78847 
##          1116          1117          1118          1119          1120 
##  -22064.53779  -36675.96990  -36830.77028  -21939.87685  -30139.64552 
##          1121          1122          1123          1124          1125 
##  -32963.62838  -26764.99021  -38345.05791  -41723.04589  -49083.69138 
##          1126          1127          1128          1129          1130 
##  -37445.32589  -31475.47893  -29030.24821  -34794.18020  -31288.78233 
##          1131          1132          1133          1134          1135 
##  -46484.99739  -47434.83540  -42810.62438  -41897.43321  -40890.97101 
##          1136          1137          1138          1139          1140 
##  -33035.60314  -32800.39791  -41590.52721  -47145.05637  -35995.39145 
##          1141          1142          1143          1144          1145 
##  -40443.73917  -44568.46512  -41561.08612  -49039.95455  -50370.35059 
##          1146          1147          1148          1149          1150 
##  -40232.16361  -41996.44334  -25978.39238  -33354.80774  -34020.86228 
##          1151          1152          1153          1154          1155 
##  -34816.68839  -41276.21023  -42856.09550  -28429.71135  -31197.16927 
##          1156          1157          1158          1159          1160 
##  -39262.44709  -36218.19799  -46859.36883  -51238.85465  -52636.25092 
##          1161          1162          1163          1164          1165 
##  -46655.07092  -36682.64622  -31528.08441  -33905.36894  -41698.50689 
##          1166          1167          1168          1169          1170 
##  -48109.49958  -50807.41143  -49242.57055  -48654.12176  -43101.09628 
##          1171          1172          1173          1174          1175 
##  -37005.24259  -41972.02428  -44494.88591  -42778.49969  -36690.47131 
##          1176          1177          1178          1179          1180 
##  -38464.84642  -43462.31256  -47486.93681  -34860.64224  -39530.89618 
##          1181          1182          1183          1184          1185 
##  -45462.79289  -34781.53247  -30698.28459  -40638.57741  -32145.39904 
##          1186          1187          1188          1189          1190 
##  -37960.88504  -47754.93169  -51596.91906  -44428.77813  -45790.87562 
##          1191          1192          1193          1194          1195 
##  -47454.75207  -37638.06970  -50408.25484  -56573.60516  -59918.98030 
##          1196          1197          1198          1199          1200 
##  -50818.12655  -45192.07172  -42247.36575  -37562.15645  -39587.34248 
##          1201          1202          1203          1204          1205 
##  -44839.93765  -40952.30535  -42612.65137  -41631.16477  -35787.09540 
##          1206          1207          1208          1209          1210 
##  -32331.60863  -41332.61426  -55242.42758  -51880.00919  -26988.90235 
##          1211          1212          1213          1214          1215 
##  -13915.69857  -26673.88711  -37467.08400  -31918.00331  -37891.29185 
##          1216          1217          1218          1219          1220 
##  -49218.31110  -40367.71917  -29374.59177  -18997.40367  -17049.93505 
##          1221          1222          1223          1224          1225 
##  -27933.54235  -45540.09634  -42406.53905  -40566.04987  -38665.17846 
##          1226          1227          1228          1229          1230 
##  -37110.15639  -32200.99795  -42409.98552  -39203.37888  -59538.63655 
##          1231          1232          1233          1234          1235 
##  -45157.10947  -41870.27498  -43903.18782  -53618.52353  -51045.58145 
##          1236          1237          1238          1239          1240 
##  -54865.26515  -57305.92307  -39199.88359  -38624.56191  -20695.42844 
##          1241          1242          1243          1244          1245 
##  -33283.35079  -37789.59408  -45854.60159  -52059.09038  -50464.25665 
##          1246          1247          1248          1249          1250 
##  -48956.00795  -49904.49311  -57480.50948  -56465.66283  -61551.29268 
##          1251          1252          1253          1254          1255 
##  -58321.81500  -54440.46167  -60555.49953  -67137.07574  -55684.84863 
##          1256          1257          1258          1259          1260 
##  -49587.71372  -59670.40125  -54048.35273  -48086.94693  -50672.85811 
##          1261          1262          1263          1264          1265 
##  -51387.83195  -53570.26653  -56895.68975  -56722.34025  -61847.67904 
##          1266          1267          1268          1269          1270 
##  -57728.00571  -53903.32022  -49023.64250  -53068.49518  -50537.51576 
##          1271          1272          1273          1274          1275 
##  -59500.46688  -62279.36249  -48790.74113  -38149.66445  -45402.88149 
##          1276          1277          1278          1279          1280 
##  -47247.59690  -43944.18562  -56410.97879  -57360.44157  -46685.83339 
##          1281          1282          1283          1284          1285 
##  -43591.39445  -51302.13503  -48191.65498  -49502.22570  -55757.37542 
##          1286          1287          1288          1289          1290 
##  -58177.79637  -52524.11364  -40414.99573  -42764.12947  -38826.04085 
##          1291          1292          1293          1294          1295 
##  -37047.46508  -41767.19981  -48741.62770  -37553.94547  -37534.85270 
##          1296          1297          1298          1299          1300 
##  -41880.77872  -35024.94193  -26935.22517  -40915.37712  -46283.23955 
##          1301          1302          1303          1304          1305 
##  -43665.25056  -40332.92605  -35434.02066  -33287.01883  -34150.63527 
##          1306          1307          1308          1309          1310 
##  -45769.57237  -45417.59731  -29934.83491  -22250.74411  -31582.23070 
##          1311          1312          1313          1314          1315 
##  -32162.09364  -33048.77664  -40839.13375  -47603.88720  -23796.66395 
##          1316          1317          1318          1319          1320 
##  -22704.78265  -34391.30167  -37420.01001  -35191.92975  -41381.07506 
##          1321          1322          1323          1324          1325 
##  -43881.29492  -35193.43589  -29771.66560  -30033.19424  -33285.96500 
##          1326          1327          1328          1329          1330 
##  -34759.17534  -45327.70190  -46328.91699  -39016.20162  -51107.29874 
##          1331          1332          1333          1334          1335 
##  -31517.01058  -33512.01744  -31158.27362  -36875.16231  -45811.48729 
##          1336          1337          1338          1339          1340 
##  -32392.23047  -32072.08128  -35698.97497  -31305.89567  -35073.49951 
##          1341          1342          1343          1344          1345 
##  -48691.04223  -43616.60395  -35452.48358  -37236.45004  -33790.47149 
##          1346          1347          1348          1349          1350 
##  -32944.43731  -35001.21528  -44645.03224  -50743.49073  -35392.47150 
##          1351          1352          1353          1354          1355 
##  -33572.44911  -36079.17441  -31916.00772  -34403.79902  -52757.73123 
##          1356          1357          1358          1359          1360 
##  -48873.23456  -31279.28919  -29897.80433  -34806.58818  -38055.01434 
##          1361          1362          1363          1364          1365 
##  -46266.45564  -49774.25664  -54190.69947  -45074.78529  -25047.31592 
##          1366          1367          1368          1369          1370 
##  -29035.32952  -29849.90797  -28816.11617  -49160.27505  -48450.37224 
##          1371          1372          1373          1374          1375 
##  -35990.52510  -35857.45768  -37099.34016  -41512.36604  -41036.89327 
##          1376          1377          1378          1379          1380 
##  -46829.69771  -49048.08834  -32976.75342  -23472.05360  -31186.68648 
##          1381          1382          1383          1384          1385 
##  -32291.64079  -34999.46202  -45161.86848  -48667.36641  -26820.47144 
##          1386          1387          1388          1389          1390 
##  -31867.02914  -31509.70508  -26532.16986  -36126.21281  -48046.51743 
##          1391          1392          1393          1394          1395 
##  -51507.42127  -37300.84404  -30530.15987  -33908.66227  -30029.25604 
##          1396          1397          1398          1399          1400 
##  -31445.24258  -51015.43958  -47828.09858  -38470.03778  -36880.12260 
##          1401          1402          1403          1404          1405 
##  -33426.09785  -40028.42286  -40734.07171  -54015.68236  -51949.03937 
##          1406          1407          1408          1409          1410 
##  -42366.73175  -38409.63138  -41491.48040  -40141.66055  -44609.76816 
##          1411          1412          1413          1414          1415 
##  -55586.26575  -58557.86380  -46670.30490  -43181.53573  -43026.15713 
##          1416          1417          1418          1419          1420 
##  -40697.34054  -39728.75607  -50303.15446  -49473.42500  -36036.43225 
##          1421          1422          1423          1424          1425 
##  -34009.32087  -40993.23203  -42390.12524  -47138.71365  -53334.39889 
##          1426          1427          1428          1429          1430 
##  -54781.42987  -44404.00683  -39940.99740  -39945.73027  -42712.01327 
##          1431          1432          1433          1434          1435 
##  -41450.25422  -50329.69977  -55685.80554  -35689.33455  -37161.35468 
##          1436          1437          1438          1439          1440 
##  -39592.61798  -43963.58273  -47121.53368  -56272.85041  -54046.47334 
##          1441          1442          1443          1444          1445 
##  -41215.65627  -35564.27013  -37147.96221  -40655.01145  -46220.72547 
##          1446          1447          1448          1449          1450 
##  -52166.38912  -53132.41571  -42688.96149  -33267.12764  -39693.87931 
##          1451          1452          1453          1454          1455 
##  -39093.69614  -41484.21079  -46116.91381  -53514.30464  -41300.02138 
##          1456          1457          1458          1459          1460 
##  -38589.10076  -38421.14903  -38765.31968  -43431.84043  -48342.23424 
##          1461          1462          1463          1464          1465 
##  -52651.29504  -39479.43169  -42752.66185  -37852.15084  -34290.46486 
##          1466          1467          1468          1469          1470 
##  -36614.71148  -49428.99606  -50857.78846  -36870.77854  -31649.18567 
##          1471          1472          1473          1474          1475 
##  -24008.82400  -34741.21000  -36567.72322  -44106.10955  -46999.15561 
##          1476          1477          1478          1479          1480 
##  -29066.90142  -27113.57702  -27908.79898  -23504.14914  -29024.59738 
##          1481          1482          1483          1484          1485 
##  -33858.10166  -41645.13657  -28212.92116  -26717.67368  -27765.19957 
##          1486          1487          1488          1489          1490 
##  -29277.86013  -35333.73595  -45185.66311  -46249.67068  -32691.18311 
##          1491          1492          1493          1494          1495 
##  -30185.73718  -28575.02167  -34526.60160  -34444.90178  -41640.93056 
##          1496          1497          1498          1499          1500 
##  -44406.76749  -31533.78502  -29982.36866  -29861.11295  -31122.93800 
##          1501          1502          1503          1504          1505 
##  -33990.39750  -38603.06202  -41717.19628  -25904.33988  -19852.57432 
##          1506          1507          1508          1509          1510 
##  -29651.56372  -35831.49263  -33635.91924  -40965.75198  -34380.81119 
##          1511          1512          1513          1514          1515 
##  -23240.65880  -14622.28094  -21250.62604  -23579.96436  -30482.14611 
##          1516          1517          1518          1519          1520 
##  -36601.42773  -39601.25089  -26486.50109  -22584.01781  -25597.85894 
##          1521          1522          1523          1524          1525 
##  -21336.62866  -27609.59679  -36974.25215  -37165.30909  -21521.39507 
##          1526          1527          1528          1529          1530 
##  -21647.11769  -20892.87109  -27246.12488  -24143.37718  -31836.95402 
##          1531          1532          1533          1534          1535 
##  -30253.76826  -19829.26983  -18646.68945  -19401.68230  -16542.10456 
##          1536          1537          1538          1539          1540 
##  -18165.72322  -34306.43951  -36019.86934  -22092.96398  -19334.16319 
##          1541          1542          1543          1544          1545 
##  -24428.81946  -25041.90703  -29518.35887  -33809.09183  -36787.84870 
##          1546          1547          1548          1549          1550 
##  -17296.83279  -18568.42511  -19999.68577  -18707.14916  -21086.61440 
##          1551          1552          1553          1554          1555 
##  -26281.92107  -27974.53936  -14815.42693  -10900.82580   -4996.11399 
##          1556          1557          1558          1559          1560 
##   -5923.37197  -12948.84333  -28514.17225  -21072.68998   -8062.78268 
##          1561          1562          1563          1564          1565 
##  -10635.52651   -9190.54785   -4523.04310  -15029.12226  -26284.43445 
##          1566          1567          1568          1569          1570 
##  -27130.09873  -10715.21198  -14078.03533   -5346.50538   -8801.16614 
##          1571          1572          1573          1574          1575 
##  -14327.01628  -27667.98846  -24531.68708  -12122.66879  -12248.32293 
##          1576          1577          1578          1579          1580 
##  -14971.34594  -10099.39426  -16649.94681  -24215.56162  -21377.82270 
##          1581          1582          1583          1584          1585 
##  -13662.24727  -13595.86445  -14452.63346  -14947.64441  -13637.56930 
##          1586          1587          1588          1589          1590 
##  -20702.35551  -14764.46888   -2483.56745    -661.85705    -528.45202 
##          1591          1592          1593          1594          1595 
##   -1353.63807   -8748.30442  -18487.63513  -24850.24325   -8802.57874 
##          1596          1597          1598          1599          1600 
##   -8782.72988  -10157.26971  -14843.90159  -17434.62290  -22570.64139 
##          1601          1602          1603          1604          1605 
##  -19216.20303   -4343.39992    2677.12827     292.63824   -2618.32841 
##          1606          1607          1608          1609          1610 
##   -2427.20010  -11270.63111  -19130.45194   -1984.47549     813.88164 
##          1611          1612          1613          1614          1615 
##  -16142.74436  -30317.13571  -22361.45208  -21471.59928  -22567.19851 
##          1616          1617          1618          1619          1620 
##  -14885.72689  -13062.43349  -20697.46081  -38852.58700  -18857.91320 
##          1621          1622          1623          1624          1625 
##  -15609.22403  -11369.33659   -1474.90469   -9045.74373   -7248.53421 
##          1626          1627          1628          1629          1630 
##    9838.22514    4847.46965    7573.84716   -6345.94127    2065.96136 
##          1631          1632          1633          1634          1635 
##    6359.08290    9771.36378   25055.74503    9832.72965   -3995.72892 
##          1636          1637          1638          1639          1640 
##  -12014.81150    3137.00700    3825.48714    1448.70753   -2573.04810 
##          1641          1642          1643          1644          1645 
##   -4108.31556  -13292.70751  -10614.53801   10084.75661    2119.33337 
##          1646          1647          1648          1649          1650 
##  -12392.83242   -5862.74879  -15323.56316   -9779.05304  -16837.27800 
##          1651          1652          1653          1654          1655 
##  -10258.80155   -4439.33832   -5018.53350   -9275.88149  -10182.57903 
##          1656          1657          1658          1659          1660 
##  -10264.55437  -13291.61488    8686.40162    6968.48914     976.63884 
##          1661          1662          1663          1664          1665 
##   -8457.15480   17325.73112    1950.03617  -11666.57299    8034.80003 
##          1666          1667          1668          1669          1670 
##    6088.30927    9099.54007   -1969.30709    1868.23428   -8990.04103 
##          1671          1672          1673          1674          1675 
##  -11738.10390    5051.03363    8633.66440    9076.69270    4405.21033 
##          1676          1677          1678          1679          1680 
##    4550.90368   -7190.07998   -8188.82520    7566.90355   13341.81855 
##          1681          1682          1683          1684          1685 
##     852.92053    3514.84811   -3954.82943   -6056.24215  -10071.62703 
##          1686          1687          1688          1689          1690 
##    7753.95390    7397.68524    2706.29254   -1019.46754   -1927.86435 
##          1691          1692          1693          1694          1695 
##   -8103.81252  -12762.48107    7388.01805    1890.32308    2321.53708 
##          1696          1697          1698          1699          1700 
##    9453.83322    6535.01552   -3640.69648   -6093.46374    9023.80171 
##          1701          1702          1703          1704          1705 
##   -3744.60500     744.87709    4669.10883    3186.68936   -9179.46584 
##          1706          1707          1708          1709          1710 
##   -6020.11587    9746.39809   18615.14247   22940.51060   15427.00130 
##          1711          1712          1713          1714          1715 
##    7732.48781   -7214.73324   -1961.62942   10393.21621   11866.69304 
##          1716          1717          1718          1719          1720 
##   13973.99903   19983.04957   16422.31442    3110.76270   -9270.48381 
##          1721          1722          1723          1724          1725 
##   19283.82238   14384.73529   11746.46422    3156.13179    6983.65306 
##          1726          1727          1728          1729          1730 
##    1764.63675   -4946.38678   20733.28930   16401.70015   15409.78299 
##          1731          1732          1733          1734          1735 
##   13470.29056   12333.93262    2051.40710   -2985.87095   17700.49194 
##          1736          1737          1738          1739          1740 
##   17042.27042   21177.51516   16568.22545    3076.83964   -1293.21009 
##          1741          1742          1743          1744          1745 
##  -12018.00663    7382.60132   18835.92531   15132.96836   14685.08747 
##          1746          1747          1748          1749          1750 
##   12509.69596   -1899.47370   -7221.66586   14683.16475   13452.80787 
##          1751          1752          1753          1754          1755 
##   12246.48815    5175.98917    8607.06144   -5740.41784   -9302.38007 
##          1756          1757          1758          1759          1760 
##    2186.82401   11062.09064   10565.97396    1957.39081    6373.85398 
##          1761          1762          1763          1764          1765 
##  -10201.49873   -2515.31988    9552.84059   11886.99695   11604.42110 
##          1766          1767          1768          1769          1770 
##   14532.21158   27564.82528   31413.45550    2449.12501   32573.12136 
##          1771          1772          1773          1774          1775 
##   32165.62873   31520.99253   22332.50540   14163.35886   -3433.13320 
##          1776          1777          1778          1779          1780 
##  -12449.68059   12052.64786   25379.43010   35005.92234   24299.50072 
##          1781          1782          1783          1784          1785 
##   30566.90966    9470.60721    6585.06957   32879.12101   24845.63921 
##          1786          1787          1788          1789          1790 
##   36123.86793   28042.12739   28266.14331    5248.59661     -74.02864 
##          1791          1792          1793          1794          1795 
##   22600.74013   28842.80280   16398.05396   14814.78345   19835.59611 
##          1796          1797          1798          1799          1800 
##    9392.82724    2394.86510   27297.62373   58616.59478   47023.58560 
##          1801          1802          1803          1804          1805 
##   45017.52079   32621.80508    7496.34647   17852.01640   76561.58899 
##          1806          1807          1808          1809          1810 
##   93426.49579  104284.56374   93771.86812   95358.67836   88270.69923 
##          1811          1812          1813          1814          1815 
##  110242.81379   61592.36842   24445.73289   17564.43229   16867.39771 
##          1816          1817          1818          1819          1820 
##   19430.09842   33196.48225   23595.64433   28004.32123   36487.75107 
##          1821          1822          1823          1824          1825 
##   34088.75495   12338.46722   12386.43038    2892.47929   -4999.76997 
##          1826          1827          1828          1829          1830 
##   17306.55600   20350.16092   45353.02976   25170.29268   49832.72841 
##          1831          1832          1833          1834          1835 
##   49957.17530    6129.09705   22343.59591   35089.72339   36325.68758 
##          1836          1837          1838          1839          1840 
##   37466.06213   14016.04513    4369.90847   -6347.67935   19829.65201 
##          1841          1842          1843          1844          1845 
##   17806.66479   20923.28674   20590.49441   14224.10176   -2003.61694 
##          1846          1847          1848          1849          1850 
##   -7279.20863   18196.63913   23100.76764   24122.09418   21999.26006 
##          1851          1852          1853          1854          1855 
##   17776.17338    9837.12750   -1431.31588   29637.99121   26459.49573 
##          1856          1857          1858          1859          1860 
##   26935.29192   24278.29110   24328.58850   11125.05719    2037.04969 
##          1861          1862          1863          1864          1865 
##   31023.73278   34120.19500   53766.44209   32406.31867    7581.02252 
##          1866          1867          1868          1869          1870 
##   27831.39676    9668.63229   28854.26203   28610.13225   29786.51787 
##          1871          1872          1873          1874          1875 
##   28296.32191   83348.96520   41214.02607   49658.92556   70377.55690 
##          1876          1877          1878          1879          1880 
##   66723.06840   71169.19641  163063.43609   65222.74610   18634.05128 
##          1881          1882          1883          1884          1885 
##   12897.38030   35512.12546   40557.80317   35125.59590   29027.13534 
##          1886          1887          1888          1889          1890 
##   31687.10234   19195.86517   12313.12240   42046.89276   44126.89207 
##          1891          1892          1893          1894          1895 
##   43339.34389   37755.53485   43192.15669   23039.54538    6974.73369 
##          1896          1897          1898          1899          1900 
##   28995.02837   47823.62009   38229.61455   43681.85368   17946.59421 
##          1901          1902          1903          1904          1905 
##   30267.70726    7831.05790   37666.94693   38091.16720   45070.92893 
##          1906          1907          1908          1909          1910 
##   56502.38487   46145.33712   38487.03790   22380.75237   46605.80537 
##          1911          1912          1913          1914          1915 
##   48920.05736   52863.28827   49944.40531   45831.21708   42427.83121 
##          1916          1917          1918          1919          1920 
##   33494.01332   18650.30250   55657.82577   61922.98481   62554.37746 
##          1921          1922          1923          1924          1925 
##   67650.18082   56500.67028   53647.32527   72686.83149   85646.04051 
##          1926          1927          1928          1929          1930 
##  101661.35250   81793.50335   65610.44535   50373.12369   32585.59433 
##          1931          1932          1933          1934          1935 
##   60063.65450   61917.48775   60636.47927   59317.67969   56917.75923 
##          1936          1937          1938          1939          1940 
##   52886.66667   45341.44718   60065.00621   58309.53131   67134.76480 
##          1941          1942          1943          1944          1945 
##   56040.56890   57568.17943   52322.05123   31305.38840   46912.43203 
##          1946          1947          1948          1949          1950 
##   53936.71612   53410.56090   65565.50069   60959.74555   66236.22208 
##          1951          1952          1953          1954          1955 
##   30003.44255   82317.99775   78347.17773   83852.83402   64833.22152 
##          1956          1957          1958          1959          1960 
##   74065.99441   86162.39553   79194.66583   92412.19147   94567.75241 
##          1961          1962          1963          1964          1965 
##  118939.17753  111081.71639  108537.82548  102406.14074   88056.79753 
##          1966          1967          1968          1969          1970 
##  129507.13931  121634.41844  118334.74998  114127.00000  111483.73792 
##          1971          1972          1973          1974          1975 
##  111765.27652   92042.99873  128133.18043  121310.56610  119950.65006 
##          1976          1977          1978          1979          1980 
##  108714.70816   78903.21329   78554.98719   59575.44601   72538.10211 
##          1981          1982          1983          1984          1985 
##   84278.73157   75736.25574   54519.53526   23040.45301   48140.70038 
##          1986          1987          1988          1989          1990 
##   41787.27843   80308.41660   81270.88311   71039.40580   88565.83294 
##          1991          1992          1993          1994          1995 
##   79658.96638   78335.33331   59632.87186   89505.84422   93481.50400 
##          1996          1997          1998          1999          2000 
##   87242.76431   82018.93902   83666.38418   92195.52734  104584.96806 
##          2001          2002          2003          2004          2005 
##  114938.23869   87744.90825  109315.06636  122302.22838  114149.41364 
##          2006          2007          2008          2009          2010 
##   90335.25916  101198.17472  122149.86320  130313.39208  129295.68848 
##          2011          2012          2013          2014          2015 
##  125113.52988  124762.51771   95064.86017   76595.22499  122971.31803 
##          2016          2017          2018          2019          2020 
##  142082.18162   91755.89832  101019.07437  125510.87267  124511.29234 
##          2021          2022          2023          2024          2025 
##  112277.24894  124962.97176  131590.42675  135688.88102  120990.16145 
##          2026          2027          2028          2029          2030 
##  102538.79778   84476.89074   85586.40977  119818.53113  115255.31046 
##          2031          2032          2033          2034          2035 
##  126140.18466  111838.00451  116292.54284  114194.76849  104951.32978 
##          2036          2037          2038          2039          2040 
##  136163.86647  143445.65958  123838.45706  115292.16191  102771.13597 
##          2041          2042          2043          2044          2045 
##   81020.24186  132453.01939  163982.80756  176000.15433  169157.63264 
##          2046          2047          2048          2049          2050 
##  120934.85910  106699.35849  134836.49941   61473.61210   82950.32246 
##          2051          2052          2053          2054          2055 
##   99999.19481   89981.50434   88198.27393   89122.89494   67612.07865 
##          2056          2057          2058          2059          2060 
##   49171.89010   90692.05966  101696.82951  111292.82522  107492.91307 
##          2061          2062          2063          2064          2065 
##  105437.69913   77034.68764   77589.72804   98627.58257  104564.81404 
##          2066          2067          2068          2069          2070 
##   86107.04443   89387.03307   71622.56871   58330.10648   59500.15302 
##          2071          2072          2073          2074          2075 
##   95140.84189   96609.70857  100340.21662  105767.34588  111336.79640 
##          2076          2077          2078          2079          2080 
##   82816.44112   77701.20755  108122.33954  115346.74293  118477.65708 
##          2081          2082          2083          2084          2085 
##  117704.02490  113363.10897   95703.79443   86142.80615  129256.88792 
##          2086          2087          2088          2089          2090 
##  139313.79801  122616.00034  126999.18633  111186.00247   80964.06997 
##          2091          2092          2093          2094          2095 
##   91416.27817  119355.91957  125408.79466  115479.85402  111350.30232 
##          2096          2097          2098          2099          2100 
##  109429.12004   83591.61419   81326.50460  115709.72090  148676.69056 
##          2101          2102          2103          2104          2105 
##  137497.94264  146417.65864  160131.61813  114206.30057   90012.87736 
##          2106          2107          2108          2109          2110 
##  122365.17510  134147.91395  132379.14901  128318.64852  131747.23402 
##          2111          2112          2113          2114          2115 
##  100400.07502   87292.72873  124630.26391  144042.00611  132833.95816 
##          2116          2117          2118          2119          2120 
##  126891.24928  130505.94244  109680.87418   98511.63645  138161.66285 
##          2121          2122          2123          2124          2125 
##  137102.30229  133516.75814  117793.80460  108212.63466   90227.46333 
##          2126          2127          2128          2129          2130 
##   83194.09385  121609.84112  145252.99660  146488.66089  118660.35537 
##          2131          2132          2133          2134          2135 
##  113101.33584   90190.39441   74989.23779  107108.53497  110760.05925 
##          2136          2137          2138          2139          2140 
##  130014.84472  126751.28882  129901.69388   91491.93343   84497.59626 
##          2141          2142          2143          2144          2145 
##  115588.27835  125755.73834  125071.68865  131536.00759  123676.17408 
##          2146          2147          2148          2149          2150 
##  108283.12136  103976.20498  143555.03927  138984.77187  150731.23524 
##          2151          2152          2153          2154          2155 
##  157812.58511  144376.09526  125323.40511  107711.61661  139302.22763 
##          2156          2157          2158          2159          2160 
##  140717.41796  129001.86189  137460.13445  131798.92385  101596.86032 
##          2161          2162          2163          2164          2165 
##   76470.64303  111420.40958  107093.55020  119606.20387  126366.84230 
##          2166          2167          2168          2169          2170 
##   98848.36728   91790.06724   69815.50759  106765.14421  108158.86567 
##          2171          2172          2173          2174          2175 
##  107935.98117  109657.49282  104389.50198   79303.31305   56893.70426 
##          2176          2177          2178          2179          2180 
##  112225.40113  112897.91296  110298.83313  111575.64332  109597.57206 
##          2181          2182          2183          2184          2185 
##   75761.97231   64239.51613  115837.59464  115375.50421  120541.60434 
##          2186          2187          2188          2189          2190 
##  111000.34159  114976.81145   89640.26145   77564.49545  133515.39142 
##          2191          2192          2193          2194          2195 
##  131609.24570  129451.65558  128746.29824  125260.80722   93298.64048 
##          2196          2197          2198          2199          2200 
##   86599.75638  119750.58355  146699.25744  138813.61401  128033.26184 
##          2201          2202          2203          2204          2205 
##  125030.46422   92113.90855   88139.03425  131039.67874  127264.10248 
##          2206          2207          2208          2209          2210 
##  140200.10639  149760.38177  128373.86547  109537.50998   95677.20003 
##          2211          2212          2213          2214          2215 
##   98662.19737  150156.84772  133845.61828  135355.53617  141756.28518 
##          2216          2217          2218          2219          2220 
##  103794.57748   80452.33460  123799.34686  134342.60103  130510.33058 
##          2221          2222          2223          2224          2225 
##  129514.42559  122200.40799   86775.77419   70160.00461  120859.35665 
##          2226          2227          2228          2229          2230 
##  147583.17940  121073.81255  133138.13570  121523.13260   77719.92817 
##          2231          2232          2233          2234          2235 
##   77897.17177  122471.04717  126552.97313  145076.36768  121063.27796 
##          2236          2237          2238          2239          2240 
##  114726.22328   87256.08410   74410.10413  103202.24242  134372.33742 
##          2241          2242          2243          2244          2245 
##  126579.86960  128314.51029  105955.86631  110331.73217   86541.76033 
##          2246          2247          2248          2249          2250 
##  118452.12804  139212.58787  134403.84716  126269.33896  118337.06588 
##          2251          2252          2253          2254          2255 
##  103690.97663   90642.42954  125618.39891  135182.03684  129921.45329 
##          2256          2257          2258          2259          2260 
##  137619.91801  145825.12072  108528.99088   87397.04939  153416.16211 
##          2261          2262          2263          2264          2265 
##  159338.85135  161460.37070  169184.56348  160933.73453  145137.06862 
##          2266          2267          2268          2269          2270 
##  105066.58870  117511.43429  157602.65251  127449.65094  123661.43351 
##          2271          2272          2273          2274          2275 
##  133501.57504  104220.78638   91774.29664  131139.30050  145417.67275 
##          2276          2277          2278          2279          2280 
##   93217.04103  164637.10881  159608.67715  110732.64078   85255.94602 
##          2281          2282          2283          2284          2285 
##  120724.91792  130455.44744  116503.90044  219110.19206  143526.68935 
##          2286          2287          2288          2289          2290 
##  121410.02652   99884.38019  133817.81577  137985.67333  160030.42678 
##          2291          2292          2293          2294          2295 
##  163495.85607  140315.41148  130193.34135  118219.00746  166944.18880 
##          2296          2297          2298          2299          2300 
##  188465.20700  161934.04488  163774.56223  146847.67384  121288.16692 
##          2301          2302          2303          2304          2305 
##  112584.98720  163067.58505  172784.99456  181885.22805  168828.99315 
##          2306          2307          2308          2309          2310 
##  167293.40762  140899.11569  134988.05511  177322.91021  176984.27806 
##          2311          2312          2313          2314          2315 
##  168311.94579  220018.49194  206983.56877  169306.00667  129431.71616 
##          2316          2317          2318          2319          2320 
##  190487.40558  181630.26393  184437.44996  131149.63169  206332.41333 
##          2321          2322          2323          2324          2325 
##  178977.72770  136379.53160  169050.38573  210834.28547  201791.54491 
##          2326          2327          2328          2329          2330 
##  173567.96512  159605.31489  140918.24704  120797.91065  159413.65785 
##          2331          2332          2333          2334          2335 
##  182462.51641  177070.30199  173315.41934  169934.15237  128551.30269 
##          2336          2337          2338          2339          2340 
##  126274.61528  172430.65868  186814.66094  215292.55577  203137.35729 
##          2341          2342          2343          2344          2345 
##  192231.19986  127820.78469   84732.13446  131353.62256  183423.62260 
##          2346          2347          2348          2349          2350 
##  190940.75248  189635.16692  172052.16264  135530.80084   65759.91785 
##          2351          2352          2353          2354          2355 
##  175449.89325  186095.06400  210416.21292  172074.94065  233276.86094 
##          2356          2357          2358          2359          2360 
##  170492.01920  148223.15173  160243.83246  212696.08408  193252.35531 
##          2361          2362          2363          2364          2365 
##  187468.29229  164666.82070  134490.34246  128032.43654  157848.04642 
##          2366          2367          2368          2369          2370 
##  180935.08548  186106.36111  188578.94614  185865.98299  150216.66136 
##          2371          2372          2373          2374          2375 
##  123430.82002  122049.24959  165063.61597  192109.55655  201030.82780 
##          2376          2377          2378          2379          2380 
##  150793.99612  133779.85971  128928.27315  134704.28900  194520.02866 
##          2381          2382          2383          2384          2385 
##  236549.72718  144863.16073  207900.08414  168874.28434  176174.89642 
##          2386          2387          2388          2389          2390 
##  114249.89091  208827.22185  191799.73211  230898.55333  187447.49288 
##          2391          2392          2393          2394          2395 
##  147575.34655  123946.26338  174385.98901  200448.14950  180294.37848 
##          2396          2397          2398          2399          2400 
##  168372.87153  204338.15811  170155.76611  135834.67184  166197.50357 
##          2401          2402          2403          2404          2405 
##  161526.28539  164508.57580  206932.80412  223484.50857  206993.30705 
##          2406          2407          2408          2409          2410 
##  145519.87875  164445.10090  205563.83931  195582.92449  207802.61928 
##          2411          2412          2413          2414          2415 
##  215165.04505  143903.19243  158850.30792  165651.78243  206994.57655 
##          2416          2417          2418          2419          2420 
##  177837.59452  184765.98065  189376.70565  163566.00979  102329.16170 
##          2421          2422          2423          2424          2425 
##  153629.39244  190923.49182  172225.93802  207501.62897  175297.42407 
##          2426          2427          2428          2429          2430 
##  149139.65403  155724.89569  163850.98583  173318.16640  202448.19097 
##          2431          2432          2433          2434          2435 
##  173396.60285  176808.59991  132532.38735  107289.35665  119429.40769 
##          2436          2437          2438          2439          2440 
##  178913.67816  168715.47490  172890.17814  143638.49869  139404.01401 
##          2441          2442          2443          2444          2445 
##  127189.07392  169108.16743  136701.80011  197851.24871  170434.93996 
##          2446          2447          2448          2449          2450 
##  175480.09153  107084.27926  117749.52841  152559.69036  187561.61906 
##          2451          2452          2453          2454          2455 
##  157585.19262  109182.01590  170831.89293  151531.83619   93055.72008 
##          2456          2457          2458          2459          2460 
##  126391.56510  183235.45277  190626.87773  147714.57531  209383.04827 
##          2461          2462          2463          2464          2465 
##  148079.81928  123997.95373  101435.42212  203955.72246  212436.55465 
##          2466          2467          2468          2469          2470 
##  174995.38461  182289.25774  217859.36516  158134.65536  169875.66748 
##          2471          2472          2473          2474          2475 
##  207200.06664  168213.69262  225566.84373  137965.25122  233929.10829 
##          2476          2477          2478          2479          2480 
##  186546.35407  233986.29376  199348.84843  177450.95063  157336.23344 
##          2481          2482          2483          2484          2485 
##  182554.24355  195752.16096  233382.26059  197213.83366  101386.92509 
##          2486          2487          2488          2489          2490 
##  182272.67263  153626.95562  182045.45358  212759.31813  184208.99799 
##          2491          2492          2493          2494          2495 
##  182796.51357  220555.43340  185856.72863  191878.75283  181660.08241 
##          2496          2497          2498          2499          2500 
##  187593.65499  160532.72616  179732.64665  204830.09170  176516.44654 
##          2501          2502          2503          2504          2505 
##  169150.16696  124216.89748  154456.55701  114952.80660  134704.63771 
##          2506          2507          2508          2509          2510 
##  133866.60496  179154.22459  145910.20944  118583.83841   92836.60263 
##          2511          2512          2513          2514          2515 
##   60701.14726  109178.33561  133897.76285  133403.66919  147313.80851 
##          2516          2517          2518          2519          2520 
##  122868.87381   89451.58967   62049.63684  120679.12717  114505.49813 
##          2521          2522          2523          2524          2525 
##  127504.68965  117164.72758  103263.65732   73205.94261   28109.40957 
##          2526          2527          2528          2529          2530 
##  112583.42672  113251.75502  130527.45789   82656.66024  118747.69952 
##          2531          2532          2533          2534          2535 
##   74593.04094   49606.31025  104925.26699  105121.75330   85694.08904 
##          2536          2537          2538          2539          2540 
##   71250.91949   91757.49877   70691.51291   37270.32001  103907.83464 
##          2541          2542          2543          2544          2545 
##  120503.98223  111476.03280  101574.01415   87543.13911   85726.48325 
##          2546          2547          2548          2549          2550 
##   70461.51940   95393.48087  121067.10086  112430.07244   79082.22082 
##          2551          2552          2553          2554          2555 
##  109852.55763   64438.77564   20206.80610   77573.28210   85991.26806 
##          2556          2557          2558          2559          2560 
##   83706.63735   69569.05320   89573.82723   55610.84481   27422.22153 
##          2561          2562          2563          2564          2565 
##   72586.22866  -23994.06166   55187.13157   55706.27629   76250.58309 
##          2566          2567          2568          2569          2570 
##   70406.99187   29343.07001   73829.97760   96089.19264   85497.79668 
##          2571          2572          2573          2574          2575 
##   80579.82801  103779.50668   72235.49186   68598.61347   55077.80706 
##          2576          2577          2578          2579          2580 
##  111114.63795   75615.42756  143698.49864  116359.86742   72491.71702 
##          2581          2582          2583          2584          2585 
##   16180.94192   48430.08864   13561.96814  125444.98790   15816.39767 
##          2586          2587          2588          2589          2590 
##   13701.60335   32812.61131   65986.57376   30213.27698   81098.74261 
##          2591          2592          2593          2594          2595 
##   69421.94620   74837.02368   71777.60733   31120.32129   -8870.34875 
##          2596          2597          2598          2599          2600 
##   73681.09136   85732.94467   76926.68079   58746.94791   82930.68229 
##          2601          2602          2603          2604          2605 
##   25236.01296    4820.15446   68524.01525   69869.18194   85332.90023 
##          2606          2607          2608          2609          2610 
##   95652.41437  127213.62947   57689.56885   34189.26632   37340.20114 
##          2611          2612          2613          2614          2615 
##  101561.40849   52707.66147   76846.41569   53327.29049   25287.58932 
##          2616          2617          2618          2619          2620 
##    9326.27202   42942.42290   79606.19516   69045.69495   84148.52409 
##          2621          2622          2623          2624          2625 
##   63888.64922   15285.84976    6731.24241   93249.64628   84893.59740 
##          2626          2627          2628          2629          2630 
##   35609.41372   77994.33125   87433.47728   36675.16466   38146.04628 
##          2631          2632          2633          2634          2635 
##   92630.27292   94711.84699   84867.40353   74198.31321   76140.17386 
##          2636          2637          2638          2639          2640 
##   60165.11015   45471.12896   74205.23402  100283.92199  106020.61091 
##          2641          2642          2643          2644          2645 
##  122188.90332   80040.18035   70678.30914   53845.69401   80213.11943 
##          2646          2647          2648          2649          2650 
##  113953.23678   96095.01467   56550.53687    1452.44829   -1265.19006 
##          2651          2652          2653          2654          2655 
##  102899.11377   75269.06215   40037.88815   89886.16586   86168.46491 
##          2656          2657          2658          2659          2660 
##    1177.45967   17245.99255  -33945.60831   -3168.86103   64393.00940 
##          2661          2662          2663          2664          2665 
##   22928.87923   74553.07903   12896.70076  -52289.81190  -42554.62558 
##          2666          2667          2668          2669          2670 
##   78214.11549   37728.35500   70240.08965   43423.36528   23051.74269 
##          2671          2672          2673          2674          2675 
##   -6075.91786  -22325.48885   41128.44785   75816.20151   10498.74484 
##          2676          2677          2678          2679          2680 
##   51851.59060    9779.00386   36496.16389   14668.07773   49770.74412 
##          2681          2682          2683          2684          2685 
##   25259.26509   33055.73297   42737.45177   55149.42013  -47524.20138 
##          2686          2687          2688          2689          2690 
##  -24004.89623   15530.75779    6004.28748   22384.29319 -118690.30991 
##          2691          2692          2693          2694          2695 
## -130778.64456  -98221.40374 -158896.17610 -179843.87936 -136837.35407 
##          2696          2697          2698          2699          2700 
## -101934.70150  -48932.23906 -151720.19175 -184298.10363 -186819.96106 
##          2701          2702          2703          2704          2705 
## -168568.72976 -181709.56725 -139405.44887 -141977.20114   -6198.23445 
##          2706          2707          2708          2709          2710 
## -130787.09677  -80954.49365 -153049.77864 -172486.51882 -110731.22321 
##          2711          2712          2713          2714          2715 
##  -83530.00056  -77066.35883  -32676.54741  -92253.68845 -155907.77099 
##          2716          2717          2718          2719          2720 
##  -66990.76791  -52765.73236  -16003.98861 -139947.58031 -137565.85807 
##          2721          2722          2723          2724          2725 
## -136988.82491 -125315.11414 -117493.24869  -85345.76502  -71095.07134 
##          2726          2727          2728          2729          2730 
## -110634.45660 -152523.91392 -158780.37107 -132419.97570  -38476.91892 
##          2731          2732          2733          2734          2735 
##   10817.75545  -27407.68405  -70015.06632 -122547.40280 -136431.93220 
##          2736          2737          2738          2739          2740 
##  -99822.44990  -49613.30352  -79905.31533  -96465.16143 -117587.01797 
##          2741          2742          2743          2744          2745 
## -173857.91655 -152440.63008 -118085.94100  -99132.96981 -119333.94069 
##          2746          2747          2748          2749          2750 
##  -51085.28053  -35168.58919  -95656.08331  -93742.99583  -20743.48859 
##          2751          2752          2753          2754          2755 
##   22907.59933  -38576.98269  -67064.61373  -82523.86400 -114314.36361 
##          2756          2757          2758          2759          2760 
## -128222.59883 -110173.43242 -107038.16541 -115394.55886 -140681.99487 
##          2761          2762          2763          2764          2765 
## -161736.04149 -196544.25430 -206533.07189 -187741.87527 -191742.49637 
##          2766          2767          2768          2769          2770 
## -158490.48729 -171642.67471 -156924.68189 -174043.70975 -161805.11265 
##          2771          2772          2773          2774          2775 
## -137326.58666 -116657.06171 -141489.06263 -109666.12954 -158328.23702 
##          2776          2777          2778          2779          2780 
## -186477.12588 -201585.99052 -179904.87885 -154525.19532 -130228.80105 
##          2781          2782          2783          2784          2785 
## -122876.00144  -88477.74291 -138555.46603 -126873.27668 -109610.40529 
##          2786          2787          2788          2789          2790 
##  -88383.90602  -90073.22205  -50861.59037  -82432.19925 -102209.57247 
##          2791          2792          2793          2794          2795 
##  -88357.81393  -95614.48586  -86802.24544 -104044.07900 -110198.63292 
##          2796          2797          2798          2799          2800 
## -116545.20135 -147532.43608 -155079.34509  -98768.86948  -93204.32238 
##          2801          2802          2803          2804          2805 
## -100490.65888  -62518.82221  -52538.90783  -95836.17036  -92877.11456 
##          2806          2807          2808          2809          2810 
##  -71412.87205  -51456.61286  -59280.19530  -59602.80715  -68873.30739 
##          2811          2812          2813          2814          2815 
##  -91572.56496 -108131.47220  -76744.10596  -66293.13251  -71683.94135 
##          2816          2817          2818          2819          2820 
##  -53954.83597  -65551.93957 -124123.36303 -129237.43527  -99984.16225 
##          2821          2822          2823          2824          2825 
##  -91390.48706  -89797.48037  -82717.42055  -93926.19684 -117891.30577 
##          2826          2827          2828          2829          2830 
## -140158.77627  -84134.10653  -70190.07341 -101308.79239  -91698.81214 
##          2831          2832          2833          2834          2835 
## -111952.04755 -110502.49326 -136750.99495 -101665.21216 -106784.32708 
##          2836          2837          2838          2839          2840 
##  -96486.00469  -84237.30380 -100160.75636 -124254.49346 -154405.45181 
##          2841          2842          2843          2844          2845 
## -110947.02548  -94030.68213  -98678.75795  -98585.27118  -77002.52201 
##          2846          2847          2848          2849          2850 
## -104902.80054 -126244.28426  -68488.40454  -67561.52695  -67244.84781 
##          2851          2852          2853          2854          2855 
##  -89050.45344  -58070.81223 -104417.37381 -120971.05830  -85379.66862 
##          2856          2857          2858          2859          2860 
##  -80042.64725  -47570.84070  -56533.25055  -60998.95429  -98669.21683 
##          2861          2862          2863          2864          2865 
## -108689.55687  -66791.97453  -49801.18333  -52802.48917  -49558.14414 
##          2866          2867          2868          2869          2870 
##  -57520.43403  -96305.47890 -109792.96967  -60023.47346  -57083.77476 
##          2871          2872          2873          2874          2875 
##  -67584.74101  -66120.05758  -71547.19834 -103017.43529  -76003.54717 
##          2876          2877          2878          2879          2880 
##  -33133.31835  -29355.13423  -15681.00888  -23963.53626  -29703.00455 
##          2881          2882          2883          2884          2885 
##  -73067.44690  -89873.87223  -40413.53127  -51685.70138  -44620.04833 
##          2886          2887          2888          2889          2890 
##  -54054.03802  -34139.24637  -72265.59221  -71371.75738  -32261.48501 
##          2891          2892          2893          2894          2895 
##  -35706.11082  -43095.25999  -45815.10665  -25388.72446  -58915.89320 
##          2896          2897          2898          2899          2900 
##  -78427.35264  -46706.20298  -35567.44501  -44073.18254  -50392.47006 
##          2901          2902          2903          2904          2905 
##  -48268.31984  -81737.83674  -98439.67799  -47712.57340  -29797.99400 
##          2906          2907          2908          2909          2910 
##  -41127.20610  -32237.67686  -25996.05618  -56907.97569  -76322.28403 
##          2911          2912          2913          2914          2915 
##  -35606.15633  -20546.39487  -31940.10937  -44833.78991  -53451.58696 
##          2916          2917          2918          2919          2920 
##  -90930.92794 -110771.35968  -52515.52645  -35380.79981  -49023.68609 
##          2921          2922          2923          2924          2925 
##  -66120.40770  -62643.29386 -104605.97858 -119934.22071  -56376.08828 
##          2926          2927          2928          2929          2930 
##  -40143.62581  -29917.13661  -44030.90950  -25667.03144  -61146.79655 
##          2931          2932          2933          2934          2935 
##  -73317.87304  -29007.33472   -9931.37420    9562.33872   -9654.96281 
##          2936          2937          2938          2939          2940 
##   -2071.61692  -28384.95159  -64463.93803   -9682.24707   25335.71407 
##          2941          2942          2943          2944          2945 
##    7805.96285   -1055.21373   -5767.04474  -52032.21812  -76902.04212 
##          2946          2947          2948          2949          2950 
##  -28994.45373  -24704.50394  -19314.79654  -24109.26729  -31366.03987 
##          2951          2952          2953          2954          2955 
##  -55248.59141  -76873.79656  -29221.81795  -23637.27147  -23436.45545 
##          2956          2957          2958          2959          2960 
##  -26702.72404  -26781.01665  -49894.48146  -78630.40132  -44139.96426 
##          2961          2962          2963          2964          2965 
##  -38199.83833  -16055.92794   12292.07554  -12996.50367  -26753.60603 
##          2966          2967          2968          2969          2970 
##  -40129.53159   -9232.29183    4410.27955    3872.19334   -1512.78959 
##          2971          2972          2973          2974          2975 
##  -14758.58540  -29380.56711  -65704.83568   -2399.32024    5182.86217 
##          2976          2977          2978          2979          2980 
##   10075.88634   11727.00841   23351.78336  -25159.75199  -51947.36038 
##          2981          2982          2983          2984          2985 
##  -12489.45427    9826.69230    -630.82900    4702.62819    4534.38745 
##          2986          2987          2988          2989          2990 
##  -26992.67520  -41818.83308   -3211.33826     739.25480     267.15494 
##          2991          2992          2993          2994          2995 
##   -3695.62677    -889.87357  -31438.20011  -26824.32219     739.55374 
##          2996          2997          2998          2999          3000 
##  -11113.05602    -472.35261   25754.24203    4801.13288  -30280.56612 
##          3001          3002          3003          3004          3005 
##  -44335.49320   20560.38733   11793.83223   12738.69931    5593.73850 
##          3006          3007          3008          3009          3010 
##    9295.69185  -16625.72464  -36015.84778    9108.79535    7846.21553 
##          3011          3012          3013          3014          3015 
##    7979.30286   12137.25426   10666.12269   -9225.32352  -22696.80964 
##          3016          3017          3018          3019          3020 
##   29466.52632   44645.64347   50079.35354   43659.06346   52659.02361 
##          3021          3022          3023          3024          3025 
##    9882.95331  -15630.32062   53901.43923   43208.18194   47615.71021 
##          3026          3027          3028          3029          3030 
##   33128.84133   40280.95426    8918.74341    5187.37748   58454.00905 
##          3031          3032          3033          3034          3035 
##   37862.09533   59217.27272   75130.46435   64105.97654   52775.76424 
##          3036          3037          3038          3039          3040 
##   27385.89660   64278.07737  100822.27601   69831.36507   88258.22030 
##          3041          3042          3043          3044          3045 
##  104574.04354   71955.58827   72703.74567   85836.34932  107489.67420 
##          3046          3047          3048          3049          3050 
##   77807.70468   65511.87721   66394.08454   52880.24781   34602.34013 
##          3051          3052          3053          3054          3055 
##   59098.74174   86755.30104   72801.63899  103090.24341   87403.99340 
##          3056          3057          3058          3059          3060 
##   62635.05292   72192.13610   92324.87463   84552.76753   91901.20535 
##          3061          3062          3063          3064          3065 
##  102088.37518  113470.25906   98903.34122   61284.69856  129246.68623 
##          3066          3067          3068          3069          3070 
##   91541.88552  119307.08708   98949.61822   89092.67948   62216.64113 
##          3071          3072          3073          3074          3075 
##   56538.73212   76640.36676   81578.51760   92237.38362  118321.17384 
##          3076          3077          3078          3079          3080 
##  130376.76201   82631.77897   88632.79008   80177.46796   57143.32599 
##          3081          3082          3083          3084          3085 
##   90299.76039  112880.19261  100849.08835   81545.47249   74367.01225 
##          3086          3087          3088          3089          3090 
##   96908.00318  132272.54093  129785.54901  145984.77039  130867.68307 
##          3091          3092          3093          3094          3095 
##  106318.62758  105612.24709  154175.10810  127550.68364  132744.62871 
##          3096          3097          3098          3099          3100 
##  123991.62512  132121.20244  106789.87446  119565.14748  140652.28102 
##          3101          3102          3103          3104          3105 
##  120724.43193  119010.89020  134256.95787  126307.72091  112561.75514 
##          3106          3107          3108          3109          3110 
##  102474.51586  136835.42693  155508.15696  151064.54316  183826.03684 
##          3111          3112          3113          3114          3115 
##  168442.21116  150463.23073  129068.52883  164764.35395  183038.00321 
##          3116          3117          3118          3119          3120 
##  180011.02118  182735.85908  162074.83779  133262.98739  122571.76822 
##          3121          3122          3123          3124          3125 
##  136330.20340   93045.14256  174962.68955  178042.55396  119604.74768 
##          3126          3127          3128          3129          3130 
##  154339.12001  150214.28939  161455.83436  163376.64361  128394.33562 
##          3131          3132          3133          3134          3135 
##  109724.57791  159431.37269  139821.16807  132045.69803  153909.32065 
##          3136          3137          3138          3139          3140 
##  182218.67903  163467.39390  188077.11074  174657.70690  155500.25053 
##          3141          3142          3143          3144          3145 
##  173951.30434  127366.07102  106610.74577   97803.98198  100543.98723 
##          3146          3147          3148          3149          3150 
##  101900.61436   54950.25804   28994.09375  111941.93939  102762.79813 
##          3151          3152          3153          3154          3155 
##  103355.25015  117303.20126  113567.97429   75943.10267   42422.88968 
##          3156          3157          3158          3159          3160 
##  105122.65316  118195.56280  118434.27897  114224.56964  112290.14353 
##          3161          3162          3163          3164          3165 
##   65057.73905   40852.58156  137494.89271  183630.00512  197244.60377 
##          3166          3167          3168          3169          3170 
##  208584.14090  182376.15569  189398.60101  193123.70633  179145.11394 
##          3171          3172          3173          3174          3175 
##  195029.78166  145415.46731  139283.49733  164634.91222  137815.30427 
##          3176          3177          3178          3179          3180 
##  130608.14531  150104.50083  122792.36373  171482.98899  185159.01232 
##          3181          3182          3183          3184          3185 
##  163406.00934  155522.62793  127203.53266  169763.54610  147450.91688 
##          3186          3187          3188          3189          3190 
##  135604.36705  168874.14952  146755.74196  102151.34412  174040.72316 
##          3191          3192          3193          3194          3195 
##  123653.86739   86892.82418  182505.60777  161843.44439  164301.31414 
##          3196          3197          3198          3199          3200 
##  142902.59405  170511.16358  150478.34942  131892.94683  222362.72269 
##          3201          3202          3203          3204          3205 
##  233903.52899  156159.73371  128043.34391   99138.87209  147646.65693 
##          3206          3207          3208          3209          3210 
##   92261.01280  160114.60745  119659.80696   74552.61355   82217.67600 
##          3211          3212          3213          3214          3215 
##   66973.75168  109666.61756   65371.05845   70527.76687   73784.01225 
##          3216          3217          3218          3219          3220 
##   84547.74045   77870.96920   59344.54120  102453.44679   92935.81206 
##          3221          3222          3223          3224          3225 
##  109017.44751  114682.41216   95656.31804   60086.88982   90106.10809 
##          3226          3227          3228          3229          3230 
##   89217.81744   87391.30217  101678.40355   71751.95563    6677.63634 
##          3231          3232          3233          3234          3235 
##   34480.14846    1247.41501    -822.65409  100866.04119   96473.49025 
##          3236          3237          3238          3239          3240 
##  102447.57397   84166.62913   25166.48974   31828.75721   81935.41907 
##          3241          3242          3243          3244          3245 
##   70435.46506   54245.15924   84114.20708   72265.23632   26812.63752 
##          3246          3247          3248          3249          3250 
##  -19344.68649    1786.20788   74780.97224   79361.91479    5704.64129 
##          3251          3252          3253          3254          3255 
##    2265.51853  -10170.40064   18336.18905   14764.32227  -23940.25693 
##          3256          3257          3258          3259          3260 
##  -19939.58005  -18742.06147    3905.87487  -43877.93536  -42236.00225 
##          3261          3262          3263          3264          3265 
##   -7721.19204   34856.55985   34978.55253   16930.43950   31806.59627 
##          3266          3267          3268          3269          3270 
##  -16269.82453  -39824.38639   14407.02930  -23432.78995  -83412.84840 
##          3271          3272          3273          3274          3275 
##  -46424.02949  -24759.47963  -53999.94313  -28392.23190   18051.15343 
##          3276          3277          3278          3279          3280 
##   34808.20076   32379.67653    2970.60547  -15896.16683    1298.54925 
##          3281          3282          3283          3284          3285 
##  -48445.96504  -16276.84550     297.35603  -15116.78320    9949.38001 
##          3286          3287          3288          3289          3290 
##    9519.11852  -35715.45704  -36420.73543   24237.29474   25395.97094 
##          3291          3292          3293          3294          3295 
##   44386.74395   11099.55433    8330.33989  -26339.99918  -55031.67854 
##          3296          3297          3298          3299          3300 
##  -48404.84846  -12911.65328  -17735.27232  -57374.51478  -48762.43012 
##          3301          3302          3303          3304          3305 
##  -71215.49031  -97602.56973  -71084.36405   19070.70159   27963.82107 
##          3306          3307          3308          3309          3310 
##   38777.05435    4536.62133  -24165.14636  -40441.70845   -3526.84249 
##          3311          3312          3313          3314          3315 
##   -3197.58290  -11099.91154   -1956.96870   11392.24423  -16518.73244 
##          3316          3317          3318          3319          3320 
##  -38727.10439  -19983.31835    -727.90622   15418.50821   38695.13115 
##          3321          3322          3323          3324          3325 
##   38193.39117   34666.99263  -24527.87440    5197.31667   29581.72329 
##          3326          3327          3328          3329          3330 
##  -15232.79386    6891.42502   13563.90529  -25848.85285  -57605.45690 
##          3331          3332          3333          3334          3335 
##  -22509.75386    2747.03601    8999.83912    1936.52350  -20716.98259 
##          3336          3337          3338          3339          3340 
##  -31278.71883  -59307.96780   15815.79281   13178.66560   33942.42821 
##          3341          3342          3343          3344          3345 
##   22365.63820    9146.37276   11862.85209   -5823.22228  -32821.85188 
##          3346          3347          3348          3349          3350 
##   47086.79090   72866.97396   82200.10085   47034.90043   55266.98947 
##          3351          3352          3353          3354          3355 
##   25201.54609   46492.87659   63142.68528   58149.55875   50854.71183 
##          3356          3357          3358          3359          3360 
##   61071.67724   45721.72937    1230.14277   47493.86343   52385.18772 
##          3361          3362          3363          3364          3365 
##   24089.36488   49017.01058   56446.87155   10710.64697  -10636.79308 
##          3366          3367          3368          3369          3370 
##   17475.10817   53474.09959   56949.84244   52840.72158   64842.91521 
##          3371          3372          3373          3374          3375 
##   30060.70012   14643.42357   68747.81695   60124.96936   80528.45282 
##          3376          3377          3378          3379          3380 
##   39658.02930   54145.39968   -9415.83707  -54815.54376  -25152.84918 
##          3381          3382          3383          3384          3385 
##  -26177.00624   -6338.26830  -20847.01490      20.69534  -38277.09402 
##          3386          3387          3388          3389          3390 
##  -23437.79945   -8361.82477   21510.71014    4449.26949   16449.97222 
##          3391          3392          3393          3394          3395 
##   10212.79506    8908.02760    1655.61319   34585.31765    8888.40663 
##          3396          3397          3398          3399          3400 
##   24260.25502   59236.67275   38717.90368   -2359.85612  -23660.66025 
##          3401          3402          3403          3404          3405 
##   21436.62094   48859.49670   41760.06160   56061.33706   59399.50486 
##          3406          3407          3408          3409          3410 
##   54691.98870   21819.57825   43031.09983   72974.54748   67561.85582 
##          3411          3412          3413          3414          3415 
##   49395.36524   47847.34050    5927.08066   13230.99178   48604.32999 
##          3416          3417          3418          3419          3420 
##   72875.67473   75450.12742   45822.53662   47637.21733   15036.46842 
##          3421          3422          3423          3424          3425 
##   11437.52717   45635.59911   57418.00958   29198.16160   52636.67182 
##          3426          3427          3428          3429          3430 
##   62663.03097   35494.42882    6893.93880   72096.47721   73559.20212 
##          3431          3432          3433          3434          3435 
##   68466.80472   62192.97522   77557.43200   50695.47104   15283.43708 
##          3436          3437          3438          3439          3440 
##   33200.95341   27853.11747  -22144.56384   29379.42439   58722.69945 
##          3441          3442          3443          3444          3445 
##   31503.62473   11276.10497   58654.46137   29626.55487  -10316.81429 
##          3446          3447          3448          3449          3450 
##   40490.04333   55987.08234   22948.72288   19609.24964   27048.10218 
##          3451          3452          3453          3454          3455 
##   59302.53152   26606.26087   40460.20700   40866.94533   17670.56491 
##          3456          3457          3458          3459          3460 
##   -3815.02040    2704.34770   40479.02455   27863.15901   23082.40097 
##          3461          3462          3463          3464          3465 
##   11790.24630  -20024.58462  -21875.65218   12072.99846   12889.43243 
##          3466          3467          3468          3469          3470 
##   30810.65703   40461.53427   25192.62874    2025.81632  -25385.92062 
##          3471          3472          3473          3474          3475 
##  -14440.30159   35775.01994   25204.21275   13640.23269   13606.45570 
##          3476          3477          3478          3479          3480 
##  -17211.87385  -29445.53701   12512.87216   -6082.28363   47594.16870 
##          3481          3482          3483          3484          3485 
##   -8854.56618   10227.80177   -9217.04627  -20139.65138  -29750.77395 
##          3486          3487          3488          3489          3490 
##   33231.51393     802.24884    2361.15323  -15424.31723  -15130.16529 
##          3491          3492          3493          3494          3495 
##  -34808.59091   23230.55654    6058.78852    8893.26932    7203.02282 
##          3496          3497          3498          3499          3500 
##   16778.19264   -7879.68394  -31284.49639   15126.43762   21672.26142
## 
##  Shapiro-Wilk normality test
## 
## data:  residuals(model.dlm)
## W = 0.9282, p-value < 2.2e-16

Uji Non Autokorelasi

bgtest(model.dlm$model)
## 
##  Breusch-Godfrey test for serial correlation of order up to 1
## 
## data:  model.dlm$model
## LM test = 3283.5, df = 1, p-value < 2.2e-16

Uji Heterogenitas

bptest(model.dlm$model)
## 
##  studentized Breusch-Pagan test
## 
## data:  model.dlm$model
## BP = 41.98, df = 11, p-value = 1.633e-05

KESIMPULAN

DAFTAR PUSTAKA

https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/sushilkumarinfo/bitcoin-transactional-data

Pratama IGM, Sumarjaya IW, Suciptawati NLP. 2022. Peramalan harga bitcoin dengan metode smooth transition autoregressive (STAR). E-Jurnal Matematika. 11(2): 100-105.