Past Precedent

This past offseason the wide receiver market exploded. Blockbluster trades for Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown were finalized with top of the market deals. Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp received massive second extensions while DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel and DK Metcalf secured impressive first extensions.

We are a few years removed from Antonio Brown (’17), Julio Jones (’19) and DeAndre Hopkins (’20) receiving a third contract that made them the highest paid WR in Annual Average Value (AAV) at signing. The Steelers and Falcons traded their star receivers two years into these contracts. Brown was cut before playing a snap with the Raiders and Jones was cut this past offseason after spending a year with the Titans. The Texans traded Hopkins to the Cardinals prior to his extension and is under contract through 2024. He missed six games last year due to injury and will miss the first six games of this season because of a failed PED test.

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Antonio Brown (left), Julio Jones (middle), DeAndre Hopkins (right)Antonio Brown (left), Julio Jones (middle), DeAndre Hopkins (right)Antonio Brown (left), Julio Jones (middle), DeAndre Hopkins (right)

Antonio Brown (left), Julio Jones (middle), DeAndre Hopkins (right)

At the time, these players were considered to be among the best at their position. In hindsight, the production on the field wasn’t equivalent to the monetary investment. Should we assume that Adams, Hill, Diggs or Kupp will have a different outcome on these new extensions? It is important to note these players aren’t getting any younger especially with rising talent under 25 at the position (Chase, Jefferson, Waddle, Pittman, etc). Are front offices victims to recency bias when they hand out substantial third contracts to receivers?

Highlighting Factors

There were 285 receivers that ran at least 150 routes from 2016 to 2021. On average, these players were under contract for an Annual Average Value of $6.2M (inflated to 2022 Salary Cap Dollars). Receivers who signed their second or third contract in the 75th percentile (AAV ~$9.2M+) are uniquely identified from the total number of WRs. The length of a contract is not a parameter for a player’s second or third contract. This means franchise tags and one year deals are considered contracts.

Over the past few months, Tan Ho and Sebastian Carl have released two new dictionaries on nflreadr to the public. The first one includes salary cap data from Jason Fitzgerald’s Over the Cap. The second has snap count data for every player since 2016. With this information a receiver’s Yards per Route Run (YPRR) can be computed. How well did receivers on these second and third contracts perform compare to the 50th and 75 percentile in YPRR?

\[\\[0.0005in]\] \[\\[0.0005in]\] In theory, Adams, Hill, Diggs and Kupp signed extensions that will keep them with their current team for the next 5 years. Jordy Nelson and Demaryius Thomas are the only WRs since 2013 to make it to the 4th year of their third contract. More than likely these WRs will be traded, restructured or cut before they reach the end of these deals.

Yards per Route Run is a good measure for efficiency, but how often are these receivers targeted? Are there are other efficiency metrics to consider? How expensive are these receivers and how many were paid during this time frame? The table below highlights wide receiver averages for several metrics. The columns filled with color represents the percentage increase/decrease from the league average to those who signed contracts in the 75th percentile.

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Wide Receivers on their 2nd and 3rd Contracts
Percentage Increase/Decrease from League Average (2016 - 2021)
Metric NFL Avg 2nd Contract 3rd Contract
Avg +/- Avg +/-
Production
Routes Run 371.9 466.9 25.55% 421.1 13.24%
Targets 80.1 119.2 48.76% 105.9 32.16%
Receptions 46.8 72.4 54.81% 63.1 34.91%
Efficiency
Target Rate 20.8% 25.5% 22.23% 24.5% 17.57%
Share of Team Air Yards 21.6% 27.2% 25.94% 23.3% 7.74%
Yards per Route Run 1.55 2.00 28.39% 1.82 17.42%
Investment
Years Experience 3.54 4.97 40.40% 7.46 110.73%
Annual Average Value $6.2M $16.3M 164.29% $17.3M 181.17%
Years on Contract 2.00 4.18 109.00% 3.59 79.50%
Observed
Players 285 37 13.21% 21 7.37%
Seasons 719 89 12.46% 36 5.01%
Table: @PattonAnalytics | Data: @nflreadr, @NextGenStats & @Jason_OTC

\[\\[0.0005in]\] On average, receivers on these second contracts are more productive, efficient, younger and cheaper than receivers on their third contract. Receivers on third contracts are still more productive than the league average, but does that justify the steep price tag for these players?

Target rate is the frequency at which receivers are targeted based on the number of routes run. The only metric from Next Gen Stats incorporated is Share of Team Air Yards. The statistic correlates well with a receiver’s average depth of target (aDot).

Return on Investment

Who performed to the level of their compensation? 30.34% of the observed seasons for second contracts recorded an 80th percentile or higher score in two statistics; Share of Team’s Intended Air Yards (%TAY) and Yards per Route Run (YPRR). What about player’s on their third contract? Only 21.62% of the observations recorded similar production in %TAY and YPRR. In 75% of those seasons the receiver was in the first year of that deal.

Since 2016, DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones are the only WRs to record three seasons on their second contract in the 80th percentile in %TAY and YPRR. Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and Brandin Cooks weren’t far behind with two seasons apiece.

\[\\[0.0005in]\] \[\\[0.0005in]\] Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks are the only WRs on their second contracts to find themselves with performances above the 80th percentile and below the 60th percentile. Jordy Nelson and John Brown found themselves in both extremes on their third contracts.

Overspending on wide receivers that aren’t bona fide stars isn’t a recipe for success. Marvin Jones Jr, Allen Hurns, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffrey and Robert Woods are a few examples that stand out given their respective extensions. They were good players, but not worth the deals they were signed to.

\[\\[0.0005in]\] \[\\[0.0005in]\] Sammy Watkins signed a one year deal following the Chiefs Super Bowl victory in 2019. Watkins efficiency continued to regress on his third contract. The financial resources spent on him that year could have been allocated to other positions of need.

After signing Nelson Agholor to a two year deal last offseason, the Patriots traded for DeVante Parker this past spring. Both receivers were grossly overpaid last year and are not expected to see an increase in production or efficiency. This should come as no surprise as Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ front office have struggled to identify and develop wide receiver talent.

Future Implications

From 2019 to 2021 there were 24 receivers who signed a second or third contract with an AAV in the 75th percentile. Four of those wide receivers didn’t sign multiyear contracts. AJ Green and Allen Robinson played their third contracts on the franchise tag. Chris Godwin was the only player since 2019 to play a second contract on the tag. Unlike the other three, Sammy Watkins signed a one year deal and was not tagged.

54.5% of of players that negotiated multiyear second contracts are still with the team they signed with. That drops to 44.4% for receivers on their third contracts. Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods and DeVante Parker were all traded by the team that signed them initially. The only WRs that have been cut so far are Golden Tate, John Brown and Julio Jones.

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Multiyear Signings for Wide Recievers
AAV in inflated 2022 salary cap dollars (2019 - 2021)
Player Team Signed Acquired Status Years AAV
2nd Contract
K. Golladay 2021 Free Agent Under Contract 4 $20.61M
C. Sutton 2021 Re-Sign Under Contract 4 $17.07M
C. Davis 2021 Free Agent Under Contract 3 $14.16M
A. Cooper 2020 Re-Sign Traded after 2 Yrs 5 $21.03M
C. Kupp 2020 Re-Sign Extended after 2 Yrs 3 $16.45M
M. Thomas 2019 Re-Sign Under Contract 5 $21.24M
T. Hill 2019 Re-Sign Traded after 3 Yrs 3 $19.99M
T. Boyd 2019 Re-Sign Under Contract 4 $11.87M
S. Shepard 2019 Re-Sign Under Contract 4 $11.24M
D. Parker 2019 Re-Sign Traded after 3 Yrs 3 $11.24M
J. Crowder 2019 Free Agent Completed Contract 3 $10.41M
3rd Contract
T. Lockett 2021 Re-Sign Under Contract 4 $19.78M
N. Agholor 2021 Free Agent Under Contract 2 $12.49M
D. Hopkins 2020 Trade Under Contract 2 $28.52M
K. Allen 2020 Re-Sign Under Contract 4 $21.03M
R. Woods 2020 Re-Sign Traded after 2 Yrs 4 $17.07M
R. Anderson 2020 Free Agent Extended after 1 Yr 2 $10.41M
J. Jones 2019 Re-Sign Traded after 2 Yrs 3 $24.36M
G. Tate 2019 Free Agent Cut after 2 Yrs 4 $10.41M
J. Brown 2019 Free Agent Cut after 2 Yrs 3 $9.99M
Table: @PattonAnalytics | Data: @nflreadr & @Jason_OTC

\[\\[0.0005in]\] The salary cap due to the pandemic decreased by 7.92% from 2020 to 2021. Players knew the cap would increase in 2022 and delayed signing extensions. There were more receivers that signed a multiyear second contract this past offseason (12) than the previous three years combined (11)!!

The first WR to sign a substantial contract this past spring was Christian Kirk with the Jaguars. According to social media his $72M deal over 4 years was to blame for the avalanche the receiver market turned into. There are a few things to point out about this underlying assumption. Kenny Golladay signed an eerily similar contract ($72M over 4 years) last offseason at the age of 27. Kirk signed his at the age of 25.

Now I know what you are thinking, Golladay had a couple 1,000 yard seasons in his four seasons with the Lions and Kirk had zero in his four with the Cardinals. You know who also didn’t have a 1,000 yard season in his first four years in the NFL? Davante Adams. Aggregate statistics can provide insight in overall production, but it can sometimes blind us to future potential and growth.

Finally, DeAndre Hopkins had a larger role in setting the wide receiver market. In 2020, he signed a $54.5M extension. Inflated to 2022 numbers that contract would have an AAV of $28.52M. Only Tyreek Hill signed an extension with a higher annual average value this offseason.

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Signings in the 75th Percentile this Past Offseason
Sorted by Contract & Annual Average Value (2022)
Player Team Acquired Years AAV GTD
2nd Contract
A.J. Brown Trade 4 $25.0M $56.5M
Deebo Samuel Re-Sign 3 $23.9M $58.2M
D.K. Metcalf Re-Sign 3 $24.0M $58.2M
Terry McLaurin Re-Sign 3 $23.2M $53.1M
D.J. Moore Re-Sign 3 $20.6M $41.6M
Mike Williams Re-Sign 3 $20.0M $40.0M
Diontae Johnson Re-Sign 2 $18.4M $27.0M
Christian Kirk Free Agent 4 $18.0M $37.0M
Hunter Renfrow Re-Sign 2 $15.8M $21.0M
Michael Gallup Re-Sign 5 $11.5M $27.0M
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Free Agent 3 $10.0M $15.0M
Russell Gage Free Agent 3 $10.0M $20.0M
3rd Contract
Tyreek Hill Trade 4 $30.0M $72.2M
Davante Adams Trade 5 $28.0M $65.7M
Cooper Kupp Re-Sign 3 $26.7M $75.0M
Stefon Diggs Re-Sign 4 $24.0M $70.0M
Chris Godwin Re-Sign 3 $20.0M $40.0M
Brandin Cooks Re-Sign 2 $19.9M $39.0M
Table: @PattonAnalytics | Data: @nflreadr & @Jason_OTC

\[\\[0.0005in]\] From 2019 to 2021, there were nine receivers that signed a multiyear third contract. This past offseason? Six receivers signed a third deal. With historical precedence in mind, it is hard to fathom why teams handed out enormous extensions with a ton of guaranteed money. An even harder pill to swallow is that the Raiders and Dolphins traded an excessive amount of draft capital to sign these players.

We’ve seen receivers perform well on the first year of these third contracts, but after that? There should be regression next year and onward. It should be no surprise that some of these teams will move on from these players during the 2024 offseason.