MDC 2050 Employment Forecast Comparison
Overview
This assessment, compiled as part of the MDC 2050 forecasting effort, compares various employment estimates and projections for Miami-Dade County. It includes both public and propreitary estimates as well as forecats, indicating vintage published when applicable.
MDC/LRTP
- 2040 LRTP
- 2045 LRTP (developed as part of 2045 effort)
Moody’s
- 2017 vintage (acquired as part of 2045 effort)
Woods & Poole
- 2017 vintage (acquired as part of 2045 effort)
- 2022 vintage (acquired as part of 2050 effort)
Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
- 2021 vintage (acquired as part of 2050 effort)
SEFRTC RTP 2045
- Southeast Florida Regional Transportation Council 2045 planning effort
- Each MPO supplied socioeconomic data to the RTP team.
FDEO
- Florida Department of Economic Opportunity 2021 Forecast
Replica
- 2021 and 2019 workers on typical weekday (synthetic population based on mobility data + Census/BLS inputs) models
Beacon Council
- Payroll jobs - unknown when estimates were produced
Census Employed Workers - ACS 1-Year
- Represents employment by workplace location in MDC
BLS QCEW
Census CBP
DataAxle 2022
BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) (data from Census CPS)
All Projections (Miami-Dade County)
Any published population forecast above, years between 2015-2060. Click legend to turn on/off specific scenarios.
All Datasets (Miami-Dade County) - Tabular - Select Years
| scenario | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2025 | 2029 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | 2055 | 2060 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLS LAUS / Census CPS | 906,445 | 955,097 | 1,043,046 | 1,106,002 | 1,085,051 | 1,215,857 | 1,340,491 | 1,177,701 | 1,239,474 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| W&P (2022) | 1,063,522 | 1,116,427 | 1,269,942 | 1,387,609 | 1,414,370 | 1,710,558 | 1,897,335 | 1,776,825 | 1,904,048 | 2,101,143 | 2,238,432 | 2,273,282 | 2,446,913 | 2,623,195 | 2,803,607 | 2,991,263 | 3,189,257 | 3,400,498 |
| Census ACS 1-Year (Workplace) | NA | NA | NA | 1,069,811 | 1,130,991 | 1,312,125 | 1,422,504 | NA | 1,346,308 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| LEHD | NA | NA | NA | 953,183 | 938,014 | 1,096,138 | 1,176,072 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| LRTP (2040) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,076,809 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,531,025 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| BLS QCEW | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,074,600 | 1,164,700 | 1,167,500 | 1,093,800 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Census CBP | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 949,355 | 995,962 | 1,009,024 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| MDC 2045 (Control Totals) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,351,000 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,814,000 | NA | NA | NA |
| Moody’s (2017) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,125,800 | 1,222,693 | 1,228,224 | 1,237,335 | 1,288,671 | 1,318,135 | 1,325,054 | 1,363,723 | 1,410,934 | 1,462,045 | NA | NA | NA |
| SEFTC RTP (2020) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,353,300 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,848,600 | NA | NA | NA |
| W&P (2017) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,681,253 | 1,795,172 | 1,823,727 | 1,852,593 | 1,970,465 | 2,088,824 | 2,118,465 | 2,267,155 | 2,419,308 | 2,578,132 | NA | NA | NA |
| Beacon Council (Unknown) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,179,488 | 1,190,437 | 1,196,393 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Replica (2022) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,376,093 | NA | 1,380,831 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Dun & Bradstreet 2020 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,482,627 | 1,482,627 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| RER (2022) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,633,216 | NA | 1,708,485 | NA | 1,753,523 | 1,845,532 | 1,933,698 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| RPG 2050 Shift-Share (D&B Base) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,482,627 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,873,746 | NA | NA |
| DataAxle (2022) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,280,661 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| FLDEO (2021) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1,238,404 | NA | 1,388,884 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
All Datasets Covering More than 10 Years (Miami-Dade County) - Average Annual Growth Rate
| Source | Span (Years) | Base Emp | Horizion Emp | Base Year | Future Year | AAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEFTC RTP (2020) | 30 | 1353300 | 1848600 | 2015 | 2045 | 1.22% |
| MDC 2045 (Control Totals) | 30 | 1351000 | 1814000 | 2015 | 2045 | 1.14% |
| Moody’s (2017) | 32 | 1125800 | 1480199 | 2015 | 2047 | 0.98% |
| W&P (2017) | 30 | 1681253 | 2578132 | 2015 | 2045 | 1.78% |
| LRTP (2040) | 30 | 1076809 | 1531025 | 2010 | 2040 | 1.41% |
| RER (2022) | 20 | 1633216 | 1933698 | 2020 | 2040 | 0.92% |
| RPG 2050 Shift-Share (D&B Base) | 30 | 1482627 | 1873746 | 2020 | 2050 | 0.88% |
| W&P (2022) | 30 | 1776825 | 2991263 | 2020 | 2050 | 2.28% |
AAGR by Dataset
