stores <- read.csv("/Users/ivannagarza/Desktop/TEC/7 SEMESTRE/stores.csv")
features <- read.csv("/Users/ivannagarza/Desktop/TEC/7 SEMESTRE/features.csv")
train <- read.csv("/Users/ivannagarza/Desktop/TEC/7 SEMESTRE/train.csv")
test <- read.csv("/Users/ivannagarza/Desktop/TEC/7 SEMESTRE/test.csv")# install.packages("dplyr")
library(dplyr)##
## Attaching package: 'dplyr'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
##
## filter, lag
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
##
## intersect, setdiff, setequal, union
summary(stores)## Store Type Size
## Min. : 1 Length:45 Min. : 34875
## 1st Qu.:12 Class :character 1st Qu.: 70713
## Median :23 Mode :character Median :126512
## Mean :23 Mean :130288
## 3rd Qu.:34 3rd Qu.:202307
## Max. :45 Max. :219622
count(stores, Type, sort = TRUE)## Type n
## 1 A 22
## 2 B 17
## 3 C 6
str(stores)## 'data.frame': 45 obs. of 3 variables:
## $ Store: int 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ...
## $ Type : chr "A" "A" "B" "A" ...
## $ Size : int 151315 202307 37392 205863 34875 202505 70713 155078 125833 126512 ...
summary (features)## Store Date Temperature Fuel_Price
## Min. : 1 Length:8190 Min. : -7.29 Min. :2.472
## 1st Qu.:12 Class :character 1st Qu.: 45.90 1st Qu.:3.041
## Median :23 Mode :character Median : 60.71 Median :3.513
## Mean :23 Mean : 59.36 Mean :3.406
## 3rd Qu.:34 3rd Qu.: 73.88 3rd Qu.:3.743
## Max. :45 Max. :101.95 Max. :4.468
##
## MarkDown1 MarkDown2 MarkDown3 MarkDown4
## Min. : -2781 Min. : -265.76 Min. : -179.26 Min. : 0.22
## 1st Qu.: 1578 1st Qu.: 68.88 1st Qu.: 6.60 1st Qu.: 304.69
## Median : 4744 Median : 364.57 Median : 36.26 Median : 1176.42
## Mean : 7032 Mean : 3384.18 Mean : 1760.10 Mean : 3292.94
## 3rd Qu.: 8923 3rd Qu.: 2153.35 3rd Qu.: 163.15 3rd Qu.: 3310.01
## Max. :103185 Max. :104519.54 Max. :149483.31 Max. :67474.85
## NA's :4158 NA's :5269 NA's :4577 NA's :4726
## MarkDown5 CPI Unemployment IsHoliday
## Min. : -185.2 Min. :126.1 Min. : 3.684 Mode :logical
## 1st Qu.: 1440.8 1st Qu.:132.4 1st Qu.: 6.634 FALSE:7605
## Median : 2727.1 Median :182.8 Median : 7.806 TRUE :585
## Mean : 4132.2 Mean :172.5 Mean : 7.827
## 3rd Qu.: 4832.6 3rd Qu.:213.9 3rd Qu.: 8.567
## Max. :771448.1 Max. :229.0 Max. :14.313
## NA's :4140 NA's :585 NA's :585
str(features)## 'data.frame': 8190 obs. of 12 variables:
## $ Store : int 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Date : chr "05/02/2010" "12/02/2010" "19/02/2010" "26/02/2010" ...
## $ Temperature : num 42.3 38.5 39.9 46.6 46.5 ...
## $ Fuel_Price : num 2.57 2.55 2.51 2.56 2.62 ...
## $ MarkDown1 : num NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ MarkDown2 : num NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ MarkDown3 : num NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ MarkDown4 : num NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ MarkDown5 : num NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ CPI : num 211 211 211 211 211 ...
## $ Unemployment: num 8.11 8.11 8.11 8.11 8.11 ...
## $ IsHoliday : logi FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE ...
summary (train)## Store Dept Date Weekly_Sales
## Min. : 1.0 Min. : 1.00 Length:421570 Min. : -4989
## 1st Qu.:11.0 1st Qu.:18.00 Class :character 1st Qu.: 2080
## Median :22.0 Median :37.00 Mode :character Median : 7612
## Mean :22.2 Mean :44.26 Mean : 15981
## 3rd Qu.:33.0 3rd Qu.:74.00 3rd Qu.: 20206
## Max. :45.0 Max. :99.00 Max. :693099
## IsHoliday
## Mode :logical
## FALSE:391909
## TRUE :29661
##
##
##
str(train)## 'data.frame': 421570 obs. of 5 variables:
## $ Store : int 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Dept : int 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Date : chr "05/02/2010" "12/02/2010" "19/02/2010" "26/02/2010" ...
## $ Weekly_Sales: num 24924 46039 41596 19404 21828 ...
## $ IsHoliday : logi FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE ...
summary (test)## Store Dept Date IsHoliday
## Min. : 1.00 Min. : 1.00 Length:115064 Mode :logical
## 1st Qu.:11.00 1st Qu.:18.00 Class :character FALSE:106136
## Median :22.00 Median :37.00 Mode :character TRUE :8928
## Mean :22.24 Mean :44.34
## 3rd Qu.:33.00 3rd Qu.:74.00
## Max. :45.00 Max. :99.00
str(test)## 'data.frame': 115064 obs. of 4 variables:
## $ Store : int 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Dept : int 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Date : chr "02/11/2012" "09/11/2012" "16/11/2012" "23/11/2012" ...
## $ IsHoliday: logi FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE ...
Paso 1. Definir el área de negocio que buscamos impactar o mejorar y su KPI. El departamento de mercadotecnia de EUA (con muestra de 45 tiendas) en el indicador de Ventas Semanales
Paso 2. Seleccionar plantilla (-s) para crear valor a partir
de los datos de los clientes.
Visión / Segmentación / Personalización /
Contextualización
Paso 3. Generar ideas o conceptos específicos
Elaborar un modelo predictivo de ventas semanales.
Paso 4. Reunir los datos requeridos
Elaborar una base de datos con la variale dependiente (Ventas
Semanales) y las variables independientes.
Paso 5. Plan de ejecución
Mercadotecnia elaborará plan para desplegar modelo predictivo en
fases.
Fase 1. Piloto (San Antonio, Tx)
Fase 2. Texas
Fase 3. EUA
Sistemas asegurará la captura del Markdown en las bases de datos.
bd <- merge(train, stores, by="Store")bd2 <- merge (bd, features)
summary(bd2)## Store Date IsHoliday Dept
## Min. : 1.0 Length:421570 Mode :logical Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:11.0 Class :character FALSE:391909 1st Qu.:18.00
## Median :22.0 Mode :character TRUE :29661 Median :37.00
## Mean :22.2 Mean :44.26
## 3rd Qu.:33.0 3rd Qu.:74.00
## Max. :45.0 Max. :99.00
##
## Weekly_Sales Type Size Temperature
## Min. : -4989 Length:421570 Min. : 34875 Min. : -2.06
## 1st Qu.: 2080 Class :character 1st Qu.: 93638 1st Qu.: 46.68
## Median : 7612 Mode :character Median :140167 Median : 62.09
## Mean : 15981 Mean :136728 Mean : 60.09
## 3rd Qu.: 20206 3rd Qu.:202505 3rd Qu.: 74.28
## Max. :693099 Max. :219622 Max. :100.14
##
## Fuel_Price MarkDown1 MarkDown2 MarkDown3
## Min. :2.472 Min. : 0.27 Min. : -265.8 Min. : -29.10
## 1st Qu.:2.933 1st Qu.: 2240.27 1st Qu.: 41.6 1st Qu.: 5.08
## Median :3.452 Median : 5347.45 Median : 192.0 Median : 24.60
## Mean :3.361 Mean : 7246.42 Mean : 3334.6 Mean : 1439.42
## 3rd Qu.:3.738 3rd Qu.: 9210.90 3rd Qu.: 1926.9 3rd Qu.: 103.99
## Max. :4.468 Max. :88646.76 Max. :104519.5 Max. :141630.61
## NA's :270889 NA's :310322 NA's :284479
## MarkDown4 MarkDown5 CPI Unemployment
## Min. : 0.22 Min. : 135.2 Min. :126.1 Min. : 3.879
## 1st Qu.: 504.22 1st Qu.: 1878.4 1st Qu.:132.0 1st Qu.: 6.891
## Median : 1481.31 Median : 3359.4 Median :182.3 Median : 7.866
## Mean : 3383.17 Mean : 4629.0 Mean :171.2 Mean : 7.960
## 3rd Qu.: 3595.04 3rd Qu.: 5563.8 3rd Qu.:212.4 3rd Qu.: 8.572
## Max. :67474.85 Max. :108519.3 Max. :227.2 Max. :14.313
## NA's :286603 NA's :270138
bd3 <- bd2
bd3$Date <- as.Date(bd3$Date, format = "%d/%m/%Y")
tibble(bd3)## # A tibble: 421,570 × 16
## Store Date IsHoliday Dept Weekl…¹ Type Size Tempe…² Fuel_…³ MarkD…⁴
## <int> <date> <lgl> <int> <dbl> <chr> <int> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 49 13168. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 2 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 26 5947. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 3 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 81 28545. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 4 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 34 9950. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 5 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 59 317. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 6 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 30 3897. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 7 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 7 20145. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 8 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 85 3209. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 9 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 8 35319. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## 10 1 2011-04-01 FALSE 28 603. A 151315 59.2 3.52 NA
## # … with 421,560 more rows, 6 more variables: MarkDown2 <dbl>, MarkDown3 <dbl>,
## # MarkDown4 <dbl>, MarkDown5 <dbl>, CPI <dbl>, Unemployment <dbl>, and
## # abbreviated variable names ¹Weekly_Sales, ²Temperature, ³Fuel_Price,
## # ⁴MarkDown1
bd4 <- bd3
bd4 <- subset (bd3,select = -c(MarkDown1, MarkDown2, MarkDown3, MarkDown4, MarkDown5))
summary (bd4)## Store Date IsHoliday Dept
## Min. : 1.0 Min. :2010-02-05 Mode :logical Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:11.0 1st Qu.:2010-10-08 FALSE:391909 1st Qu.:18.00
## Median :22.0 Median :2011-06-17 TRUE :29661 Median :37.00
## Mean :22.2 Mean :2011-06-18 Mean :44.26
## 3rd Qu.:33.0 3rd Qu.:2012-02-24 3rd Qu.:74.00
## Max. :45.0 Max. :2012-10-26 Max. :99.00
## Weekly_Sales Type Size Temperature
## Min. : -4989 Length:421570 Min. : 34875 Min. : -2.06
## 1st Qu.: 2080 Class :character 1st Qu.: 93638 1st Qu.: 46.68
## Median : 7612 Mode :character Median :140167 Median : 62.09
## Mean : 15981 Mean :136728 Mean : 60.09
## 3rd Qu.: 20206 3rd Qu.:202505 3rd Qu.: 74.28
## Max. :693099 Max. :219622 Max. :100.14
## Fuel_Price CPI Unemployment
## Min. :2.472 Min. :126.1 Min. : 3.879
## 1st Qu.:2.933 1st Qu.:132.0 1st Qu.: 6.891
## Median :3.452 Median :182.3 Median : 7.866
## Mean :3.361 Mean :171.2 Mean : 7.960
## 3rd Qu.:3.738 3rd Qu.:212.4 3rd Qu.: 8.572
## Max. :4.468 Max. :227.2 Max. :14.313
# install.packages("wordspace")
library(wordspace)## Loading required package: Matrix
signcount(bd4$Weekly_Sales)## pos zero neg
## 420212 73 1285
bd5<-bd4
bd5<- bd5 [bd5$Weekly_Sales > 0,]
summary(bd5)## Store Date IsHoliday Dept
## Min. : 1.0 Min. :2010-02-05 Mode :logical Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:11.0 1st Qu.:2010-10-08 FALSE:390652 1st Qu.:18.00
## Median :22.0 Median :2011-06-17 TRUE :29560 Median :37.00
## Mean :22.2 Mean :2011-06-18 Mean :44.24
## 3rd Qu.:33.0 3rd Qu.:2012-02-24 3rd Qu.:74.00
## Max. :45.0 Max. :2012-10-26 Max. :99.00
## Weekly_Sales Type Size Temperature
## Min. : 0 Length:420212 Min. : 34875 Min. : -2.06
## 1st Qu.: 2120 Class :character 1st Qu.: 93638 1st Qu.: 46.68
## Median : 7662 Mode :character Median :140167 Median : 62.09
## Mean : 16033 Mean :136750 Mean : 60.09
## 3rd Qu.: 20271 3rd Qu.:202505 3rd Qu.: 74.28
## Max. :693099 Max. :219622 Max. :100.14
## Fuel_Price CPI Unemployment
## Min. :2.472 Min. :126.1 Min. : 3.879
## 1st Qu.:2.933 1st Qu.:132.0 1st Qu.: 6.891
## Median :3.452 Median :182.4 Median : 7.866
## Mean :3.361 Mean :171.2 Mean : 7.960
## 3rd Qu.:3.738 3rd Qu.:212.4 3rd Qu.: 8.567
## Max. :4.468 Max. :227.2 Max. :14.313
bd6<- bd5
bd6$week_number <- strftime(bd6$Date, format = "%V")
str(bd6)## 'data.frame': 420212 obs. of 12 variables:
## $ Store : int 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Date : Date, format: "2011-04-01" "2011-04-01" ...
## $ IsHoliday : logi FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE ...
## $ Dept : int 49 26 81 34 59 30 7 85 8 28 ...
## $ Weekly_Sales: num 13168 5947 28545 9950 317 ...
## $ Type : chr "A" "A" "A" "A" ...
## $ Size : int 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 ...
## $ Temperature : num 59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2 ...
## $ Fuel_Price : num 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 ...
## $ CPI : num 215 215 215 215 215 ...
## $ Unemployment: num 7.68 7.68 7.68 7.68 7.68 ...
## $ week_number : chr "13" "13" "13" "13" ...
bd6$week_number <- as.integer(bd6$week_number)
str(bd6)## 'data.frame': 420212 obs. of 12 variables:
## $ Store : int 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Date : Date, format: "2011-04-01" "2011-04-01" ...
## $ IsHoliday : logi FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE ...
## $ Dept : int 49 26 81 34 59 30 7 85 8 28 ...
## $ Weekly_Sales: num 13168 5947 28545 9950 317 ...
## $ Type : chr "A" "A" "A" "A" ...
## $ Size : int 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 151315 ...
## $ Temperature : num 59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2 ...
## $ Fuel_Price : num 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 ...
## $ CPI : num 215 215 215 215 215 ...
## $ Unemployment: num 7.68 7.68 7.68 7.68 7.68 ...
## $ week_number : int 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 ...
summary(bd6)## Store Date IsHoliday Dept
## Min. : 1.0 Min. :2010-02-05 Mode :logical Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:11.0 1st Qu.:2010-10-08 FALSE:390652 1st Qu.:18.00
## Median :22.0 Median :2011-06-17 TRUE :29560 Median :37.00
## Mean :22.2 Mean :2011-06-18 Mean :44.24
## 3rd Qu.:33.0 3rd Qu.:2012-02-24 3rd Qu.:74.00
## Max. :45.0 Max. :2012-10-26 Max. :99.00
## Weekly_Sales Type Size Temperature
## Min. : 0 Length:420212 Min. : 34875 Min. : -2.06
## 1st Qu.: 2120 Class :character 1st Qu.: 93638 1st Qu.: 46.68
## Median : 7662 Mode :character Median :140167 Median : 62.09
## Mean : 16033 Mean :136750 Mean : 60.09
## 3rd Qu.: 20271 3rd Qu.:202505 3rd Qu.: 74.28
## Max. :693099 Max. :219622 Max. :100.14
## Fuel_Price CPI Unemployment week_number
## Min. :2.472 Min. :126.1 Min. : 3.879 Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:2.933 1st Qu.:132.0 1st Qu.: 6.891 1st Qu.:14.00
## Median :3.452 Median :182.4 Median : 7.866 Median :26.00
## Mean :3.361 Mean :171.2 Mean : 7.960 Mean :25.83
## 3rd Qu.:3.738 3rd Qu.:212.4 3rd Qu.: 8.567 3rd Qu.:38.00
## Max. :4.468 Max. :227.2 Max. :14.313 Max. :52.00
bd7 <- bd6
bd7 <- bd6 %>%
dplyr::mutate(year = lubridate:: year(Date),
month = lubridate :: month(Date),
day = lubridate :: day(Date))
summary(bd7)## Store Date IsHoliday Dept
## Min. : 1.0 Min. :2010-02-05 Mode :logical Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:11.0 1st Qu.:2010-10-08 FALSE:390652 1st Qu.:18.00
## Median :22.0 Median :2011-06-17 TRUE :29560 Median :37.00
## Mean :22.2 Mean :2011-06-18 Mean :44.24
## 3rd Qu.:33.0 3rd Qu.:2012-02-24 3rd Qu.:74.00
## Max. :45.0 Max. :2012-10-26 Max. :99.00
## Weekly_Sales Type Size Temperature
## Min. : 0 Length:420212 Min. : 34875 Min. : -2.06
## 1st Qu.: 2120 Class :character 1st Qu.: 93638 1st Qu.: 46.68
## Median : 7662 Mode :character Median :140167 Median : 62.09
## Mean : 16033 Mean :136750 Mean : 60.09
## 3rd Qu.: 20271 3rd Qu.:202505 3rd Qu.: 74.28
## Max. :693099 Max. :219622 Max. :100.14
## Fuel_Price CPI Unemployment week_number
## Min. :2.472 Min. :126.1 Min. : 3.879 Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:2.933 1st Qu.:132.0 1st Qu.: 6.891 1st Qu.:14.00
## Median :3.452 Median :182.4 Median : 7.866 Median :26.00
## Mean :3.361 Mean :171.2 Mean : 7.960 Mean :25.83
## 3rd Qu.:3.738 3rd Qu.:212.4 3rd Qu.: 8.567 3rd Qu.:38.00
## Max. :4.468 Max. :227.2 Max. :14.313 Max. :52.00
## year month day
## Min. :2010 Min. : 1.00 Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:2010 1st Qu.: 4.00 1st Qu.: 8.00
## Median :2011 Median : 6.00 Median :16.00
## Mean :2011 Mean : 6.45 Mean :15.67
## 3rd Qu.:2012 3rd Qu.: 9.00 3rd Qu.:23.00
## Max. :2012 Max. :12.00 Max. :31.00
regresion <- lm(Weekly_Sales ~ Store + IsHoliday + Dept + Type + Size + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + week_number + year + month + day, data=bd7)
summary(regresion)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = Weekly_Sales ~ Store + IsHoliday + Dept + Type +
## Size + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + week_number +
## year + month + day, data = bd7)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -34331 -12895 -5852 5626 671540
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 1.110e+06 2.999e+05 3.701 0.000214 ***
## Store -1.426e+02 3.087e+00 -46.198 < 2e-16 ***
## IsHolidayTRUE 8.511e+02 1.391e+02 6.119 9.45e-10 ***
## Dept 1.108e+02 1.097e+00 101.013 < 2e-16 ***
## TypeB -3.133e+02 1.078e+02 -2.908 0.003642 **
## TypeC 5.836e+03 1.840e+02 31.709 < 2e-16 ***
## Size 9.920e-02 9.584e-04 103.511 < 2e-16 ***
## Temperature 3.701e+00 2.133e+00 1.735 0.082688 .
## Fuel_Price 4.791e+02 1.480e+02 3.237 0.001207 **
## CPI -2.340e+01 9.996e-01 -23.409 < 2e-16 ***
## Unemployment -2.538e+02 2.062e+01 -12.308 < 2e-16 ***
## week_number 7.678e+02 4.566e+02 1.682 0.092648 .
## year -5.485e+02 1.485e+02 -3.695 0.000220 ***
## month -3.167e+03 1.988e+03 -1.594 0.111036
## day -1.281e+02 6.539e+01 -1.959 0.050115 .
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 21690 on 420197 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.08982, Adjusted R-squared: 0.08979
## F-statistic: 2962 on 14 and 420197 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
Durante la elaboración de este código se tuvo que realizar una
limpieza de la base de datos, en la cual identificamos cada variable que
fuera un caracter para poder adaptarla para asi proceder a realizar un
modelo predictivo. Asimismo, en la limpieza de datos, se eliminaron las
columnas en las cuales habia datos inexistentes.
El modelo predictivo se realizó para poder predecir y pronosticar las
ventas semanales y asi poder tomar decisiones ante eventos diferentes y
cambios.