MDC 2045 Cohort Component Forecast - Reproducion in R
Overview
The purpose of this notebook is to re-create the cohort-component forecasting methodology used in the 2045 forecasting effort using a programmatic approach. The approach used in 2045 was implemented in Excel. Because of this, it is more difficult to audit the approach and implement some of the more complex aspects such as age-specific birth rates at 5-year age increments.
This notebook utilizes the demCore package. Made available as an open source R package by a team of researchers at Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a “research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.” The software is made available under the GPL-3 license, which allows commercial use.
Replicate 2045 Forecast using demCore
Reproduced output by gender and age
