Overview

This assessment, compiled as part of the MDC 2050 forecasting effort, compares various population projections for Miami-Dade County.

BEBR

  • 2017 Vintage (acquired as part of 2045 effort) - likely Medium scenario
  • 2021 Vintage (acquired as part of 2050 update) - L/M/H scenarios

RER

  • 2017 vintage (acquired as part of 2045 effort)
  • 2022 vintage (acquired as part of 2050 effort)

MDC/LRTP

  • 2040 LRTP forecast
  • 2045 Control Totals (developed as part of 2045 effort)

Moody’s

  • 2017 vintage (acquired as part of 2045 effort)

Woods & Poole

  • 2017 vintage (acquired as part of 2045 effort)
  • 2022 vintage (acquired as part of 2050 effort)

“Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway” (Hauer)

  • 2019 projections

  • Developed by FSU professor (link). Acquired as part of 2050 update. Published for all counties across the USA for each of the following scenarios:

    • SSP1 (Sustainability)
    • SSP2 (Middle of the Road) - similar to Census US 2060 forecast
    • SSP3 (Regional Rivalry)
    • SSP4 (Inequality)
    • SSP5 (Fossil-fueled Development)

“Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise” (Robinson, Dilkina, Moreno-Cruz, Caleb)

  • 2020 projections
  • Developed by three researchers and published in PLOS One(link)

Census Decennial and ACS

All Projections (Miami-Dade County)

Any published population forecast above, years between 2015-2060. Click legend to turn on/off specific scenarios.

All Projections (Miami-Dade County) - Tabular - Select Years

scenario 2010 2015 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2045 2050 2055 2059
BEBR (2017) NA NA NA 2,829,875 NA NA 2,980,079 3,130,283 3,280,488 3,430,692 NA 3,580,896 NA NA NA
BEBR (2022) - High NA NA NA NA 2,731,939 NA 2,965,000 3,171,000 3,354,500 3,521,000 NA 3,673,700 3,815,500 NA NA
BEBR (2022) - Low NA NA NA NA 2,731,939 NA 2,682,600 2,674,200 2,649,100 2,615,800 NA 2,579,400 2,543,700 NA NA
BEBR (2022) - Medium NA NA NA NA 2,731,939 NA 2,823,800 2,922,600 3,001,800 3,068,400 NA 3,126,600 3,179,600 NA NA
Census ACS 1-Year NA 2,693,117 2,716,940 NA 2,662,777 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Census Decennial 2,496,435 NA NA 2,701,767 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Hauer - ssp1 NA NA NA 2,929,786 NA NA 3,144,363 3,354,700 3,562,348 3,763,786 NA 3,956,385 4,129,467 4,290,905 NA
Hauer - ssp2 NA NA NA 2,920,370 NA NA 3,126,439 3,325,765 3,517,456 3,697,561 NA 3,865,357 4,012,134 4,149,233 NA
Hauer - ssp3 NA NA NA 2,858,809 NA NA 2,996,690 3,110,975 3,208,817 3,285,055 NA 3,337,015 3,355,682 3,354,222 NA
Hauer - ssp4 NA NA NA 2,902,409 NA NA 3,090,184 3,263,546 3,427,965 3,577,185 NA 3,708,493 3,810,850 3,896,403 NA
Hauer - ssp5 NA NA NA 2,983,767 NA NA 3,258,173 3,541,583 3,828,688 4,119,904 NA 4,418,217 4,716,710 5,021,778 NA
LRTP (2040) NA 2,494,310 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3,305,377 NA NA NA NA NA
MDC 2045 (Control Totals) NA 2,647,955 NA 2,754,415 NA NA 2,944,718 3,114,391 3,274,793 3,408,161 NA 3,532,789 NA NA NA
Moody’s (2017) NA 2,692,593 2,828,577 2,867,264 2,904,471 2,941,646 3,051,664 3,227,685 3,382,611 3,493,063 3,536,545 3,589,568 NA NA NA
RER (2017) NA 2,629,628 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3,431,000 NA NA NA NA NA
RER (2022) 2,496,435 NA NA 2,701,767 NA NA 2,800,485 2,914,784 3,021,275 3,119,106 NA NA NA NA NA
Robinson (High Scenario, 2021) NA NA NA NA NA 2,742,833 NA NA NA NA 3,557,375 NA NA NA 4,122,592
Robinson (Medium Scenario, 2021) NA NA NA NA NA 2,742,833 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3,989,598 NA
SEFTC RTP (2020) NA 2,629,800 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3,533,000 NA NA NA
Seven50 SE FL Prosperity Plan Regional Growth Applied to MDC (2014) 2,496,435 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3,214,892 NA NA NA NA NA
W&P (2017) NA 2,693,117 2,818,446 2,851,035 2,883,912 2,917,076 3,018,050 3,189,098 3,355,777 3,515,028 3,577,032 3,668,653 NA NA NA
W&P (2022) 2,506,986 2,652,127 2,698,252 2,692,459 2,662,777 2,685,616 2,752,831 2,862,315 2,967,001 3,064,636 3,102,655 3,159,917 3,259,342 3,368,444 3,465,138