Complete Scatterplots: v2, list 2 Cities
Olivia Martin
Summary
In general, police and firefighter budgets move in tandem. Despite decreases in crime, police outlays have increased; despite the number of fires decreasing in most of our cities, fire outlays have increased. Median household incomes and median home prices are positively correlated with police and firefighter salaries and fairly uncorrelated with FTEs. Police salaries have gone up as crime has gone down, and firefighter salaries have increased more in places with larger decreases in fire counts.
Context on Salaries: Wages across all occupations increased 1.9% in real terms from 2001 to 2019 according to the BLS OES. Police wages, from the same survey, increased 9.6% from 2001 to 2019, whereas police salaries (includes overtime and bonuses) for our list of 80 large cities increased 21% from 1999 to 2019. Meanwhile, firefighter wages increased 0.8% from 2001 to 2019, whereas firefighter salaries increased 19% from 1999 to 2019.
The below chart shows the percentage change in real annual median wage/salary from 1999 to 2019 for police officers, firefighters, and the eight occupations police officers are most likely to transition to after policing according to data from Schubert, Stansbury, and Taska (2020) “Monopsony and Outside Options”. Details on the definitions of wages and salaries are below. The most common occupation for police officers to transition to is private security guard, with 9.5% of the transition share.
Note in Definition Differences:
Census of Governments - “Payroll”: : Includes: Salaries, wages, fees or commissions, as well as overtime, premium, and night differential pay; Bonuses and incentive payments that are paid at regular pay periods; Amounts withheld for taxes, employee contributions to retirement systems, etc. Tech Doc.
What we call “salaries” is FTE Payroll / FTE count.
BLS OES - “Wages”:
The following are included in wage: base rates, commissions, COLA, hazard pay, tips. The following are excluded: back pay, bonus, overtime pay, severance pay. Definition
Scatterplots
A: As Total Municipal Outlays Increase, So Do Fire and Police Spending
As total municipal outlays increase, police and fire department outlays increase as well. As total municipal outlays increase, FTEs also increase, and police and firefighter salaries increase slightly.
Nominal Pct Change
X[Total Municipal Outlays] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Total Municipal Outlays] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Total Municipal Outlays] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
X[Total Municipal Outlays] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
X[Total Municipal Outlays] vs. Y[Police FTE]
X[Total Municipal Outlays] vs. Y[Fire FTE]
### Per Capita Pct Change
X[Total Municipal Outlays Per Capita] vs. Y[Police Outlays Per Capita]
X[Total Municipal Outlays Per Capita] vs. Y[Fire Outlays Per Capita]
X[Total Municipal Outlays Per Capita] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
X[Total Municipal Outlays Per Capita] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
X[Total Municipal Outlays Per Capita] vs. Y[Police FTE]
X[Total Municipal Outlays] vs. Y[Fire FTE]
B: Police and Fire Spending (Strongly) Increase Together
In changes between 2004 and 2019, the relationship between police department outlays and fire department outlays is positive; same for police and fire FTEs and police and fire salaries. In 2019 levels, the relationships are also positive.
Pct Change
X[Police Outlays] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Police FTE] vs. Y[Fire FTE]
X[Police Salaries] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
2019 Levels
X[Police Outlays] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Police FTE] vs. Y[Fire FTE]
X[Police Salaries] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
C: Generally, Fires and Outlays have Little Relationship in Change Over Time
In changes between 2004 and 2019, the relationship between the number of fires and total municipal outlays is negative; the relationship between the number of fires and fire department outlays is weakly negative. In 2019 levels, cities with more fires had larger total municipal outlays and fire department outlays.
Pct Change
X[Number of Fires] vs. Y[Total Municipal Outlays]
X[Number of Fires] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
2019 Levels
X[Number of Fires] vs. Y[Total Municipal Outlays]
X[Number of Fires] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
D: Generally, Fires and Firefighter FTE Count and Salaries have Little Relationship in Change Over Time
In changes between 2004 and 2019, the relationship between the number of fires and firefighter FTEs is flat. The relationship between the number of fires and firefighter salaries is slightly negative. In 2019 levels, the relationship between number of fires and firefighter FTEs and salaries is positive.
Pct Change
X[Number of Fires] vs. Y[Fire FTEs]
X[Number of Fires] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
2019 Levels
X[Number of Fires] vs. Y[Fire FTEs]
X[Number of Fires] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
E: As Crime Decreased, Police Outlays Increased
Crime went down across almost all of our cities between 2004 and 2019. Nonetheless, almost all cities in our sample saw an increase in police outlays. The relationship between crime and police FTEs is slightly positive. The relationship between crime and police salaries is slightly negative: cities that saw less of a decrease in crime saw less of an increase in police salaries. In 2019 levels, cities with more crime have larger police outlays and more police FTEs. In 2019 levels, the relationship between salaries and crime is flat.
Pct Change
X[Crime] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Crime] vs. Y[Police FTEs]
X[Crime] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
2019 Levels
X[Crime] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Crime] vs. Y[Police FTEs]
X[Crime] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
F: Median Household Income is Positively Correlated with Police Salaries
In changes between 2000 and 2017, the relationship between median household income and police outlays and FTEs is flat. The relationship between median household income and salaries is positive. In 2017 levels, the relationships are flat, except for the relationship between median household income and police salaries, which is positive.
Pct Change
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Police FTEs]
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
2017 Levels
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Police FTEs]
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
G: Median Household Income Is Negatively Correlated w/ Fire FTEs, Positively Correlated w/ Fire Salaries
In changes between 2000 and 2017, the relationship between median household income and fire outlays and FTEs is flat to negative. The relationship between median household income and firefighter salaries is positive. In 2017 levels, the relationships are flat, except for the relationship between median household income and fire salaries, which is positive.
Pct Change
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Fire FTEs]
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
2017 Levels
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Fire FTEs]
X[Median HH Income] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
H: Home Values are Positively Correlated with Police Salaries, Uncorrelated with FTEs
In changes between 2000 and 2017, the relationship between median home values and police department outlays and FTEs is fairly flat. It’s positive for median home values and police salaries. In 2017 levels, the relationship between home values and police outlays, FTEs, and salaries is positive.
Pct Change
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Police FTEs]
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
2017 Levels
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Police FTEs]
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
I: Home Values are Positively Correlated with Fire Salaries, Negatively Correlated with Total Fire Outlays and FTEs
In changes between 2000 and 2017, the relationship between median home values and fire department outlays and FTEs is negative. It’s positive for median home values and fire salaries. In 2017 levels, the relationship between home values and fire outlays, FTEs, and salaries is positive.
Pct Change
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Fire FTEs]
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
2017 Levels
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Fire FTEs]
X[Median Home Value] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
J: Increases in Pct Non-White Are Not Correlated with Increases in Police Spending
In changes between 2000 and 2017, the relationship between percentage non-white population and police department outlays, salaries, and FTEs is fairly flat. In 2017 levels, the relationship is somewhat positive.
Pct Change
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Police FTEs]
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
2017 Levels
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Police Outlays]
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Police FTEs]
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Police Salaries]
K: Increases in Pct Non-White Are Not Correlated with Increases in Fire Spending
In changes between 2000 and 2017, the relationship between the percent non-white population and fire department outlays, salaries, and FTEs is fairly flat. In 2017 levels, the relationships are positive, except for non-white population and salaries, which is flat.
Pct Change
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Fire FTEs]
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
2017 Levels
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Fire Outlays]
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Fire FTEs]
X[Pct Non-White] vs. Y[Fire Salaries]
