Abortion and motivation to vote

Abortion policy, issue concern and enthusiasm to vote

Are abortion policy preferences linked to motivation to vote and to concern about the issue of abortion, and what role does partisanship play? I assess this using data from the Marquette Law School Poll of 803 Wisconsin registered voters, conducted June 14-20, 2022, a week before the US Supreme Court struck down the Roe v Wade decision, but well after the draft opinion in this case became public in May.

There has been a consistent majority of Wisconsin registered voters who favor legal abortions in all or most cases, and a minority who say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. Surveys over the past decade have shown very little change in opinion, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Trend in abortion policy preference, 2012-2022
Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
9/13-16/12	26	34	23	13
9/27-30/12	25	35	23	12
10/11-14/12	25	34	25	12
10/25-28/12	28	32	23	12
10/21-24/13	26	36	25	10
10/23-26/14	24	34	24	15
7/11-15/18	27	36	18	11
9/12-16/18	26	36	21	9
10/24-28/18	26	29	24	14
2/19-23/20	18	37	22	15
10/26-31/21	23	38	23	11
6/14-20/22	27	31	24	11

There is little difference in enthusiasm to vote except among those who think abortion should be illegal in most cases. Those in the two pro-abortion categories, and those with the most anti-abortion preference are all equally motivated to vote. This gives no support for the idea that the abortion issue would be uniquely motivating to pro-abortion voters. Of course this could change, but the draft opinion does not appear to have motivated supporters of abortion to greater political engagement. Rather those who say abortion should be illegal in most cases are the more enthusiastic to vote in these data.

Table 2: Enthusiasm to vote by abortion policy preference
Abortion policy preference	Very enthusiastic	Less enthusiastic	DK/Ref
Legal in all cases	56	42	2
Legal in most cases	56	42	1
Illegal in most cases	68	32	0
Illegal in all cases	57	43	0

Abortion policy preference and concern about the issue

Those who think abortion should always be legal or always be illegal are the most concerned about abortion policy, while those in the middle categories of legal in most cases or illegal in most cases are substantially less concerned.

Those with the strongest anti-abortion preference express more concern for abortion policy than do the strongest pro-abortion advocates by a small margin.

Table 3: Concern about the issue of abortion by abortion policy preference
Abortion policy preference	Very concerned	Less concerned	DK/Ref
Legal in all cases	66	34	0
Legal in most cases	53	46	1
Illegal in most cases	51	42	7
Illegal in all cases	73	27	0

Age and abortion preference and concern

There is virtually no relationship between age and abortion preference. Only those 70 years old or older are a bit less supportive of abortion than the other age groups.

Table 4: Abortion policy preference by age
Age	Legal in all or most	Illegal in all or most	Don’t know
18-29	62	38	1
30-39	60	30	6
40-49	60	34	5
50-59	60	35	5
60-69	57	35	5
70+	51	40	7

Concern over the abortion issue is also not associated with age. Concern fluctuates across age groups but is not consistently higher among the young than it is among their elders. These results suggest it is unlikely that the abortion issue will be uniquely motivating for younger voters in the fall elections.

Table 5: Concern about abortion policy by age
Age	Very concerned	Less concerned	DK/Ref
18-29	62	38	0
30-39	46	54	0
40-49	55	43	3
50-59	66	33	1
60-69	55	41	4
70+	64	32	4

Partisanship and concern about abortion policy

Democrats say they are more concerned about the abortion issue, followed by Republicans while independents express less concern about the issue.

Table 6: Abortion policy concern by party identification
Party ID	Very concerned	Less concerned	DK/Ref
Republican	57	41	2
Independent	49	49	2
Democrat	73	26	1

While Democrats express more concern about abortion, they are less likely than Republicans to say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November.

Table 7: Enthusiasm to vote by party identification
Party ID	Very enthusiastic	Less enthusiastic	DK/Ref
Republican	74	26	0
Independent	49	49	1
Democrat	60	39	1

Enthusiasm to vote by party and abortion policy preference

Enthusiasm to vote is highest among Republicans, and equally so for pro- and anti-abortion policy preferences. Among independents, those opposed to abortion are more enthusiastic than those supporting abortion. Among Democrats who are pro-abortion, enthusiasm is less than among Republicans. There are very few Democrats who are anti-abortion, but among this group enthusiasm is low, about the same as for pro-abortion independents.

Table 8: Enthusiasm to vote by abortion policy preference and party identification
Party ID	Abortion policy	Very enthusiastic	Less enthusiastic
Republican	Legal all or most cases	73	27
Republican	Illegal all or most cases	73	27
Independent	Legal all or most cases	45	53
Independent	Illegal all or most cases	57	43
Democrat	Legal all or most cases	61	38
Democrat	Illegal all or most cases	48	52

Conclusion

A week before the Supreme Court struck down Roe v Wade, Wisconsin Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats, and pro-abortion policy preference was not associated with greater enthusiasm to vote. Enthusiasm was higher among those saying abortion should be illegal in most cases while quite similar among those saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and for those saying it should be illegal in all cases.

The Court’s now official decision overturning Roe, and the subsequent political campaigns on the issue, may shift motivation and participation, but the leak of the draft of that opinion in May did not produce a measurable mobilization among those favoring abortion rights, contrary to some speculation.