Assignment 3 - Storytelling with Open Data

Investigation into the AFL’s smaller crowds in 2022

Zack Seath (s3843672)

Introduction

  • In Season 2022, AFL Crowds have been reportedly lower, but by how much and if so, why?
  • This presentation will take a look into certain crowd number statistics in 2018, 2019 and 2022 and the reasons behind the drop in crowd numbers.
  • Note: 2020 and 2021 were not included for comparison due to restrictions in place on crowd numbers in those years due to COVID-19.
  • Additionally, only statistics around crowd numbers in the first 11 rounds of the season were included for consistency as the 2022 season is still in progress.

Average Crowd Numbers

  • From this graph we can see that in Season 2022, there has been lower crowd numbers than every round in 2018 and 9 out of 11 rounds from 2019.

Top 5 Largest Crowds

  • Here we can see there has evidently been a drop off in 2022 with the largest crowd in 2022 being lower than both the 1st and 2nd biggest crowds in both 2018 and 2019.
  • Additionally, both 2018 and 2019 have 4 crowd numbers above 75000 while 2022 only has 2.

Top 5 Smallest Crowds

  • Following on here we can again clearly see that the smallest crowds in 2022 are much lower than that of 2018 and 2019.
  • Every one of the Top 5 smallest crowds in 2022 are lower than that of the same time of 2019 and lower than 3 values in 2018.

Why might this be the case - Aftermath of COVID-19

In a survey regarding the participation of people aged 18 and above in selected activities one or more times a week in the past four weeks based on the time of reporting the following information was collected:

Why might this be the case - Aftermath of COVID-19 Continued

  • These statistics demonstrate the people are still hesitant to participate in various activities in comparison to those numbers from prior to March 2020 and before COVID-19 hit Australia. As such this is a strong indicator to possibly lead to a drop in crowd numbers, as crowded areas would increase the likelihood of exposure to COVID-19.
  • In particular, As of April 2022, Attend social gatherings in the survey was down 7.7% from prior to March 2020 and Work from home in the survey was up 22.6% from prior to March 2020. Two significant indicators that people are still hesitant to completely return to “normality”.

Why might this be the case - Teams Performance On and Off the field

  • Both the way that each team is performing on field in addition with respective membership numbers is also another vital factor in which would impact crowd numbers.
  • Back in 2018/19 bigger clubs in terms of membership such as Richmond, West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood were performing well however now in 2022 more of the smaller clubs in terms of membership such as Brisbane, Fremantle and St Kilda are performing better

Conclusion

  • There are also other factors which can have impacts on crowd numbers seen in the first 11 rounds, namely:

  • The order of the fixturing and what games are within the first 11 rounds, as more blockbuster games could occur before or after round 11 in any given year.

  • The venues which certain games are played as all venues have different capacities and all 9 games per round can’t be played at the same ground.

  • The weather at each game per round, which is completely random and can be different across each state at each venue. This is due to the fact that it is a national game that is played all around Australia across each weekend from March to October.

  • Rule changes that occur each season

  • Overall, these factors are too random and it’s hard to get a picture of whether they actually have a significant impact on lowering crowd numbers in 2022 particularly. However, with the two factors that have been assessed, there is decent evidence to suggest that both the COVID-19 impact and the varying performance of different teams has influenced a drop in crowd numbers in 2022.

References