Models_imputed_20220524
Aleksandra Khokhlova
5/24/2022
#data
load("~/Desktop/NORFACE/trilogues_number.RData")
#subset data omitting outlier
#trilogues_number_noRegi <- trilogues_number %>% filter(N_trilogues < 60)NUMBER (with outlier)
#IMPUTATIONS BY PA
#FULL MODEL
m1_intensity <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number) #when adding no_recitals or no_articles, effect of salience dissappears
summary(m1_intensity)##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## factor(term), data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.269976055,
## link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.0691 -0.7717 -0.2144 0.2814 5.2752
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -0.2510564 0.4131767 -0.608 0.54344
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.2373101 0.1962635 1.209 0.22661
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.5600901 0.2735726 2.047 0.04063
## Interinst_conflict -0.1994587 0.0875752 -2.278 0.02275
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0027742 0.0004655 5.960 2.52e-09
## council_dissent 0.0841118 0.0277806 3.028 0.00246
## EP_polarization -0.8011868 0.4648130 -1.724 0.08477
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0355942 0.0215474 1.652 0.09856
## factor(package_deal)1 1.3611486 0.1013826 13.426 < 2e-16
## competence_length -0.0047824 0.0034053 -1.404 0.16020
## factor(new)1 0.0228205 0.0900476 0.253 0.79994
## factor(form)Directive 0.5211248 0.1745547 2.985 0.00283
## factor(form)Regulation 0.4868670 0.1648920 2.953 0.00315
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.2131607 0.1297479 -1.643 0.10041
## lr_proposal_probability 0.5926716 0.1392209 4.257 2.07e-05
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.0019637 0.0056416 -0.348 0.72778
## factor(term)8 -0.1069858 0.1018365 -1.051 0.29346
##
## (Intercept)
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa *
## Interinst_conflict *
## ep_amendments_tabled ***
## council_dissent **
## EP_polarization .
## N_eurovoc_terms .
## factor(package_deal)1 ***
## competence_length
## factor(new)1
## factor(form)Directive **
## factor(form)Regulation **
## factor(elections_dummy)1
## lr_proposal_probability ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz
## factor(term)8
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.27) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 897.89 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 497.23 on 498 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2311.6
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.270
## Std. Err.: 0.212
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2275.646## Salience interactions
#with ep amendments
m2_intensity_a <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa*ep_amendments_tabled +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number)
summary(m2_intensity_a) #positive significant interaction effect##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa * ep_amendments_tabled + factor(term),
## data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.298988048, link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.0258 -0.7642 -0.2166 0.3011 5.3763
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept) 0.079795 0.438831
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.200028 0.196135
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.214195 0.321395
## Interinst_conflict -0.208752 0.087352
## ep_amendments_tabled -0.001934 0.002358
## council_dissent 0.081531 0.027771
## EP_polarization -0.902006 0.466332
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.037414 0.021488
## factor(package_deal)1 1.347352 0.100989
## competence_length -0.004359 0.003423
## factor(new)1 0.019710 0.089678
## factor(form)Directive 0.505102 0.174178
## factor(form)Regulation 0.466770 0.164760
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.217263 0.129505
## lr_proposal_probability 0.587311 0.139068
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.001938 0.005620
## factor(term)8 -0.106288 0.101558
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa:ep_amendments_tabled 0.005683 0.002851
## z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.182 0.85571
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 1.020 0.30780
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.666 0.50512
## Interinst_conflict -2.390 0.01686 *
## ep_amendments_tabled -0.820 0.41210
## council_dissent 2.936 0.00333 **
## EP_polarization -1.934 0.05308 .
## N_eurovoc_terms 1.741 0.08166 .
## factor(package_deal)1 13.342 < 2e-16 ***
## competence_length -1.273 0.20286
## factor(new)1 0.220 0.82603
## factor(form)Directive 2.900 0.00373 **
## factor(form)Regulation 2.833 0.00461 **
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -1.678 0.09342 .
## lr_proposal_probability 4.223 2.41e-05 ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.345 0.73026
## factor(term)8 -1.047 0.29530
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa:ep_amendments_tabled 1.993 0.04623 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.299) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 904.61 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 497.10 on 497 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2310
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.299
## Std. Err.: 0.216
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2272.030#with council dissent
m2_intensity_b <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa*council_dissent +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number)
summary(m2_intensity_b) #negative, not significant interaction effect##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa * council_dissent + factor(term),
## data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.280211386, link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.0751 -0.7785 -0.2156 0.2794 5.2798
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept) -0.3791189 0.4422204
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.2133425 0.1982121
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.7001178 0.3219075
## Interinst_conflict -0.1905510 0.0880751
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0028033 0.0004671
## council_dissent 0.2360177 0.1748664
## EP_polarization -0.8067011 0.4642686
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0360985 0.0215233
## factor(package_deal)1 1.3578344 0.1012563
## competence_length -0.0045456 0.0034151
## factor(new)1 0.0306119 0.0902672
## factor(form)Directive 0.5213416 0.1743638
## factor(form)Regulation 0.4857126 0.1646973
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.2011677 0.1300908
## lr_proposal_probability 0.5883090 0.1390856
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.0018288 0.0056370
## factor(term)8 -0.1061287 0.1016798
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa:council_dissent -0.1814257 0.2066921
## z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -0.857 0.39127
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 1.076 0.28178
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 2.175 0.02964 *
## Interinst_conflict -2.164 0.03050 *
## ep_amendments_tabled 6.001 1.96e-09 ***
## council_dissent 1.350 0.17711
## EP_polarization -1.738 0.08229 .
## N_eurovoc_terms 1.677 0.09351 .
## factor(package_deal)1 13.410 < 2e-16 ***
## competence_length -1.331 0.18318
## factor(new)1 0.339 0.73452
## factor(form)Directive 2.990 0.00279 **
## factor(form)Regulation 2.949 0.00319 **
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -1.546 0.12202
## lr_proposal_probability 4.230 2.34e-05 ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.324 0.74561
## factor(term)8 -1.044 0.29660
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa:council_dissent -0.878 0.38007
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.2802) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 900.27 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 497.70 on 497 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2312.9
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.280
## Std. Err.: 0.213
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2274.882#with interinstitutional conflict
m2_intensity_c <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa*Interinst_conflict +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number)
summary(m2_intensity_c) #negative, not significant interaction effect##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa * Interinst_conflict + factor(term),
## data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.279062378, link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.0797 -0.7769 -0.2096 0.2793 5.1653
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept) -0.6199820 0.5125226
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.3116309 0.2049667
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.9259710 0.4099765
## Interinst_conflict 0.1512461 0.3040642
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0027756 0.0004652
## council_dissent 0.0863435 0.0278099
## EP_polarization -0.7794059 0.4655564
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0363743 0.0215304
## factor(package_deal)1 1.3526730 0.1012857
## competence_length -0.0048395 0.0034027
## factor(new)1 0.0250341 0.0898816
## factor(form)Directive 0.5372192 0.1747886
## factor(form)Regulation 0.4989877 0.1651008
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.2294167 0.1302569
## lr_proposal_probability 0.5893925 0.1393386
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.0014387 0.0056457
## factor(term)8 -0.1071389 0.1018205
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa:Interinst_conflict -0.4392085 0.3651406
## z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -1.210 0.22641
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 1.520 0.12841
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 2.259 0.02391 *
## Interinst_conflict 0.497 0.61890
## ep_amendments_tabled 5.966 2.43e-09 ***
## council_dissent 3.105 0.00190 **
## EP_polarization -1.674 0.09410 .
## N_eurovoc_terms 1.689 0.09114 .
## factor(package_deal)1 13.355 < 2e-16 ***
## competence_length -1.422 0.15495
## factor(new)1 0.279 0.78061
## factor(form)Directive 3.074 0.00212 **
## factor(form)Regulation 3.022 0.00251 **
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -1.761 0.07819 .
## lr_proposal_probability 4.230 2.34e-05 ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.255 0.79885
## factor(term)8 -1.052 0.29269
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa:Interinst_conflict -1.203 0.22904
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.2791) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 900.00 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 496.84 on 497 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2312.2
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.279
## Std. Err.: 0.213
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2274.164#with EP polarization
m2_intensity_d <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa*EP_polarization +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number)
summary(m2_intensity_d) #positive, not significant interaction effect##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa * EP_polarization + factor(term),
## data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.272336066, link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.0855 -0.7718 -0.2169 0.2825 5.2177
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept) 0.0187553 0.6089569
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.2567757 0.1998839
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.2286572 0.6137246
## Interinst_conflict -0.2093833 0.0891240
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0027493 0.0004676
## council_dissent 0.0850549 0.0278181
## EP_polarization -2.0544240 2.1217603
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0357168 0.0215427
## factor(package_deal)1 1.3636221 0.1015861
## competence_length -0.0048054 0.0034034
## factor(new)1 0.0273153 0.0901718
## factor(form)Directive 0.5326573 0.1754214
## factor(form)Regulation 0.4952126 0.1655204
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.2199652 0.1302620
## lr_proposal_probability 0.5978416 0.1393980
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.0018087 0.0056401
## factor(term)8 -0.1066386 0.1018219
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa:EP_polarization 1.4419415 2.3845046
## z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.031 0.97543
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 1.285 0.19892
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.373 0.70947
## Interinst_conflict -2.349 0.01881 *
## ep_amendments_tabled 5.879 4.13e-09 ***
## council_dissent 3.058 0.00223 **
## EP_polarization -0.968 0.33291
## N_eurovoc_terms 1.658 0.09733 .
## factor(package_deal)1 13.423 < 2e-16 ***
## competence_length -1.412 0.15797
## factor(new)1 0.303 0.76195
## factor(form)Directive 3.036 0.00239 **
## factor(form)Regulation 2.992 0.00277 **
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -1.689 0.09129 .
## lr_proposal_probability 4.289 1.80e-05 ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.321 0.74844
## factor(term)8 -1.047 0.29496
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa:EP_polarization 0.605 0.54537
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.2723) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 898.44 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 497.13 on 497 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2313.3
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.272
## Std. Err.: 0.212
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2275.265## Polarization interactions
#with ep amendments
m3_intensity_a <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa*ep_amendments_tabled +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number)
summary(m3_intensity_a) #positive "~significant" interaction effect##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa * ep_amendments_tabled +
## factor(term), data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.299069352,
## link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.0297 -0.7617 -0.1955 0.3050 5.3823
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate
## (Intercept) -0.0977381
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa -0.0259236
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.5228327
## Interinst_conflict -0.1998325
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0005843
## council_dissent 0.0889365
## EP_polarization -0.7946466
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0366858
## factor(package_deal)1 1.3652669
## competence_length -0.0049463
## factor(new)1 0.0161467
## factor(form)Directive 0.5307439
## factor(form)Regulation 0.4979014
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.2087126
## lr_proposal_probability 0.6170825
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.0019126
## factor(term)8 -0.1032680
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:ep_amendments_tabled 0.0036356
## Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) 0.4185110 -0.234
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.2464792 -0.105
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.2719168 1.923
## Interinst_conflict 0.0872287 -2.291
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0012440 0.470
## council_dissent 0.0278333 3.195
## EP_polarization 0.4627564 -1.717
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0214979 1.706
## factor(package_deal)1 0.1016923 13.425
## competence_length 0.0033909 -1.459
## factor(new)1 0.0897499 0.180
## factor(form)Directive 0.1741046 3.048
## factor(form)Regulation 0.1645685 3.025
## factor(elections_dummy)1 0.1291796 -1.616
## lr_proposal_probability 0.1389656 4.441
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz 0.0056217 -0.340
## factor(term)8 0.1016215 -1.016
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:ep_amendments_tabled 0.0019903 1.827
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.81534
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.91624
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.05451 .
## Interinst_conflict 0.02197 *
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.63860
## council_dissent 0.00140 **
## EP_polarization 0.08594 .
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.08792 .
## factor(package_deal)1 < 2e-16 ***
## competence_length 0.14465
## factor(new)1 0.85723
## factor(form)Directive 0.00230 **
## factor(form)Regulation 0.00248 **
## factor(elections_dummy)1 0.10616
## lr_proposal_probability 8.97e-06 ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz 0.73369
## factor(term)8 0.30953
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:ep_amendments_tabled 0.06775 .
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.2991) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 904.63 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 497.61 on 497 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2310.5
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.299
## Std. Err.: 0.216
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2272.530#with council dissent
m3_intensity_b <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa*council_dissent +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number)
summary(m3_intensity_b) #negative, not significant interaction effect##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa * council_dissent + factor(term),
## data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.269978569, link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.0695 -0.7717 -0.2142 0.2816 5.2751
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept) -0.2516091 0.4147255
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.2389042 0.2307921
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.5597697 0.2751122
## Interinst_conflict -0.1995138 0.0875771
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0027738 0.0004677
## council_dissent 0.0849826 0.0682696
## EP_polarization -0.8016112 0.4655096
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0356013 0.0215473
## factor(package_deal)1 1.3610534 0.1015020
## competence_length -0.0047835 0.0034053
## factor(new)1 0.0228599 0.0900597
## factor(form)Directive 0.5211655 0.1746540
## factor(form)Regulation 0.4869103 0.1649037
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.2132267 0.1297665
## lr_proposal_probability 0.5927318 0.1393807
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.0019608 0.0056417
## factor(term)8 -0.1069582 0.1018369
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:council_dissent -0.0016081 0.1164945
## z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -0.607 0.54406
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 1.035 0.30060
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 2.035 0.04188 *
## Interinst_conflict -2.278 0.02272 *
## ep_amendments_tabled 5.931 3.02e-09 ***
## council_dissent 1.245 0.21320
## EP_polarization -1.722 0.08507 .
## N_eurovoc_terms 1.652 0.09849 .
## factor(package_deal)1 13.409 < 2e-16 ***
## competence_length -1.405 0.16011
## factor(new)1 0.254 0.79963
## factor(form)Directive 2.984 0.00285 **
## factor(form)Regulation 2.953 0.00315 **
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -1.643 0.10035
## lr_proposal_probability 4.253 2.11e-05 ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.348 0.72817
## factor(term)8 -1.050 0.29359
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:council_dissent -0.014 0.98899
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.27) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 897.89 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 497.23 on 497 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2313.6
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.270
## Std. Err.: 0.212
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2275.646#with interinstitutional conflict
m3_intensity_c <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa*Interinst_conflict +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number)
summary(m3_intensity_c) #positive, not significant interaction effect##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa * Interinst_conflict +
## factor(term), data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.275821575,
## link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.1039 -0.7781 -0.2044 0.3032 5.3952
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate
## (Intercept) -0.0978242
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.0690465
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.4636537
## Interinst_conflict -0.3901916
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0027633
## council_dissent 0.0834992
## EP_polarization -0.8114549
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0368973
## factor(package_deal)1 1.3577954
## competence_length -0.0045205
## factor(new)1 0.0188190
## factor(form)Directive 0.5156007
## factor(form)Regulation 0.4792311
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.2090950
## lr_proposal_probability 0.6043349
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.0021631
## factor(term)8 -0.0932662
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:Interinst_conflict 0.3640752
## Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) 0.4483956 -0.218
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.2747661 0.251
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.2948725 1.572
## Interinst_conflict 0.2317301 -1.684
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0004658 5.933
## council_dissent 0.0277800 3.006
## EP_polarization 0.4645133 -1.747
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0216040 1.708
## factor(package_deal)1 0.1012983 13.404
## competence_length 0.0034135 -1.324
## factor(new)1 0.0901049 0.209
## factor(form)Directive 0.1746539 2.952
## factor(form)Regulation 0.1650890 2.903
## factor(elections_dummy)1 0.1297435 -1.612
## lr_proposal_probability 0.1395110 4.332
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz 0.0056491 -0.383
## factor(term)8 0.1026582 -0.909
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:Interinst_conflict 0.4082061 0.892
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.82730
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa 0.80159
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.11586
## Interinst_conflict 0.09222 .
## ep_amendments_tabled 2.98e-09 ***
## council_dissent 0.00265 **
## EP_polarization 0.08066 .
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.08766 .
## factor(package_deal)1 < 2e-16 ***
## competence_length 0.18540
## factor(new)1 0.83456
## factor(form)Directive 0.00316 **
## factor(form)Regulation 0.00370 **
## factor(elections_dummy)1 0.10705
## lr_proposal_probability 1.48e-05 ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz 0.70179
## factor(term)8 0.36361
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:Interinst_conflict 0.37245
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.2758) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 899.25 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 497.22 on 497 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2312.9
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.276
## Std. Err.: 0.213
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2274.933#with EP polarization
m3_intensity_d <- glm.nb(N_trilogues ~
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa + proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent + EP_polarization +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa*EP_polarization +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_number)
summary(m3_intensity_d) #positive, not significant interaction effect##
## Call:
## glm.nb(formula = N_trilogues ~ proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa +
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa + Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled +
## council_dissent + EP_polarization + N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) +
## competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) +
## lr_proposal_probability + proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz +
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa * EP_polarization + factor(term),
## data = trilogues_number, init.theta = 2.288270142, link = log)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.1022 -0.7738 -0.2149 0.3135 5.1319
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept) 0.0247741 0.4594973
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa -0.5301614 0.6033549
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 0.6405457 0.2824323
## Interinst_conflict -0.1853710 0.0876299
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.0027842 0.0004641
## council_dissent 0.0860812 0.0277904
## EP_polarization -2.2188830 1.1610212
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.0352040 0.0215158
## factor(package_deal)1 1.3465730 0.1012580
## competence_length -0.0042058 0.0034193
## factor(new)1 0.0240253 0.0898047
## factor(form)Directive 0.5180835 0.1741818
## factor(form)Regulation 0.4912913 0.1644569
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.2156460 0.1293942
## lr_proposal_probability 0.5974014 0.1388633
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.0017393 0.0056335
## factor(term)8 -0.1123807 0.1015645
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:EP_polarization 2.8824801 2.1564898
## z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.054 0.95700
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa -0.879 0.37957
## proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa 2.268 0.02333 *
## Interinst_conflict -2.115 0.03440 *
## ep_amendments_tabled 5.999 1.99e-09 ***
## council_dissent 3.098 0.00195 **
## EP_polarization -1.911 0.05599 .
## N_eurovoc_terms 1.636 0.10180
## factor(package_deal)1 13.298 < 2e-16 ***
## competence_length -1.230 0.21870
## factor(new)1 0.268 0.78906
## factor(form)Directive 2.974 0.00294 **
## factor(form)Regulation 2.987 0.00281 **
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -1.667 0.09560 .
## lr_proposal_probability 4.302 1.69e-05 ***
## proposal_t_all_eu_n_of_organiz -0.309 0.75752
## factor(term)8 -1.106 0.26851
## proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa:EP_polarization 1.337 0.18134
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(2.2883) family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 902.13 on 514 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 497.78 on 497 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 2312
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
##
##
## Theta: 2.288
## Std. Err.: 0.214
##
## 2 x log-likelihood: -2273.996stargazer(m1_intensity, m2_intensity_a, m2_intensity_b, m2_intensity_c, type = "latex", omit=c("term"), omit.labels = c("EP term FE"))##
## % Table created by stargazer v.5.2.2 by Marek Hlavac, Harvard University. E-mail: hlavac at fas.harvard.edu
## % Date and time: Wed, May 25, 2022 - 23:32:29
## \begin{table}[!htbp] \centering
## \caption{}
## \label{}
## \begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{5pt}}lcccc}
## \\[-1.8ex]\hline
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## & \multicolumn{4}{c}{\textit{Dependent variable:}} \\
## \cline{2-5}
## \\[-1.8ex] & \multicolumn{4}{c}{N\_trilogues} \\
## \\[-1.8ex] & (1) & (2) & (3) & (4)\\
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## proposal\_t\_polarization\_imputed\_pa & 0.237 & 0.200 & 0.213 & 0.312 \\
## & (0.196) & (0.196) & (0.198) & (0.205) \\
## & & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_salience\_imputed\_pa & 0.560$^{**}$ & 0.214 & 0.700$^{**}$ & 0.926$^{**}$ \\
## & (0.274) & (0.321) & (0.322) & (0.410) \\
## & & & & \\
## Interinst\_conflict & $-$0.199$^{**}$ & $-$0.209$^{**}$ & $-$0.191$^{**}$ & 0.151 \\
## & (0.088) & (0.087) & (0.088) & (0.304) \\
## & & & & \\
## ep\_amendments\_tabled & 0.003$^{***}$ & $-$0.002 & 0.003$^{***}$ & 0.003$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.0005) & (0.002) & (0.0005) & (0.0005) \\
## & & & & \\
## council\_dissent & 0.084$^{***}$ & 0.082$^{***}$ & 0.236 & 0.086$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.028) & (0.028) & (0.175) & (0.028) \\
## & & & & \\
## EP\_polarization & $-$0.801$^{*}$ & $-$0.902$^{*}$ & $-$0.807$^{*}$ & $-$0.779$^{*}$ \\
## & (0.465) & (0.466) & (0.464) & (0.466) \\
## & & & & \\
## factor(package\_deal)1 & 1.361$^{***}$ & 1.347$^{***}$ & 1.358$^{***}$ & 1.353$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.101) & (0.101) & (0.101) & (0.101) \\
## & & & & \\
## competence\_length & $-$0.005 & $-$0.004 & $-$0.005 & $-$0.005 \\
## & (0.003) & (0.003) & (0.003) & (0.003) \\
## & & & & \\
## factor(new)1 & 0.023 & 0.020 & 0.031 & 0.025 \\
## & (0.090) & (0.090) & (0.090) & (0.090) \\
## & & & & \\
## factor(form)Directive & 0.521$^{***}$ & 0.505$^{***}$ & 0.521$^{***}$ & 0.537$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.175) & (0.174) & (0.174) & (0.175) \\
## & & & & \\
## factor(form)Regulation & 0.487$^{***}$ & 0.467$^{***}$ & 0.486$^{***}$ & 0.499$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.165) & (0.165) & (0.165) & (0.165) \\
## & & & & \\
## factor(elections\_dummy)1 & $-$0.213 & $-$0.217$^{*}$ & $-$0.201 & $-$0.229$^{*}$ \\
## & (0.130) & (0.130) & (0.130) & (0.130) \\
## & & & & \\
## lr\_proposal\_probability & 0.593$^{***}$ & 0.587$^{***}$ & 0.588$^{***}$ & 0.589$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.139) & (0.139) & (0.139) & (0.139) \\
## & & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_all\_eu\_n\_of\_organiz & $-$0.002 & $-$0.002 & $-$0.002 & $-$0.001 \\
## & (0.006) & (0.006) & (0.006) & (0.006) \\
## & & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_salience\_imputed\_pa:ep\_amendments\_tabled & & 0.006$^{**}$ & & \\
## & & (0.003) & & \\
## & & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_salience\_imputed\_pa:council\_dissent & & & $-$0.181 & \\
## & & & (0.207) & \\
## & & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_salience\_imputed\_pa:Interinst\_conflict & & & & $-$0.439 \\
## & & & & (0.365) \\
## & & & & \\
## Constant & $-$0.251 & 0.080 & $-$0.379 & $-$0.620 \\
## & (0.413) & (0.439) & (0.442) & (0.513) \\
## & & & & \\
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## EP term FE & Yes & Yes & Yes & Yes \\
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## Observations & 515 & 515 & 515 & 515 \\
## Log Likelihood & $-$1,138.823 & $-$1,137.015 & $-$1,138.441 & $-$1,138.082 \\
## $\theta$ & 2.270$^{***}$ (0.212) & 2.299$^{***}$ (0.216) & 2.280$^{***}$ (0.213) & 2.279$^{***}$ (0.213) \\
## Akaike Inf. Crit. & 2,311.646 & 2,310.030 & 2,312.882 & 2,312.164 \\
## \hline
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## \textit{Note:} & \multicolumn{4}{r}{$^{*}$p$<$0.1; $^{**}$p$<$0.05; $^{***}$p$<$0.01} \\
## \end{tabular}
## \end{table}stargazer(m3_intensity_a, m3_intensity_b, m3_intensity_c, type = "latex", omit=c("term"), omit.labels = c("EP term FE"))##
## % Table created by stargazer v.5.2.2 by Marek Hlavac, Harvard University. E-mail: hlavac at fas.harvard.edu
## % Date and time: Wed, May 25, 2022 - 23:32:30
## \begin{table}[!htbp] \centering
## \caption{}
## \label{}
## \begin{tabular}{@{\extracolsep{5pt}}lccc}
## \\[-1.8ex]\hline
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## & \multicolumn{3}{c}{\textit{Dependent variable:}} \\
## \cline{2-4}
## \\[-1.8ex] & \multicolumn{3}{c}{N\_trilogues} \\
## \\[-1.8ex] & (1) & (2) & (3)\\
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## proposal\_t\_polarization\_imputed\_pa & $-$0.026 & 0.239 & 0.069 \\
## & (0.246) & (0.231) & (0.275) \\
## & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_salience\_imputed\_pa & 0.523$^{*}$ & 0.560$^{**}$ & 0.464 \\
## & (0.272) & (0.275) & (0.295) \\
## & & & \\
## Interinst\_conflict & $-$0.200$^{**}$ & $-$0.200$^{**}$ & $-$0.390$^{*}$ \\
## & (0.087) & (0.088) & (0.232) \\
## & & & \\
## ep\_amendments\_tabled & 0.001 & 0.003$^{***}$ & 0.003$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.001) & (0.0005) & (0.0005) \\
## & & & \\
## council\_dissent & 0.089$^{***}$ & 0.085 & 0.083$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.028) & (0.068) & (0.028) \\
## & & & \\
## EP\_polarization & $-$0.795$^{*}$ & $-$0.802$^{*}$ & $-$0.811$^{*}$ \\
## & (0.463) & (0.466) & (0.465) \\
## & & & \\
## factor(package\_deal)1 & 1.365$^{***}$ & 1.361$^{***}$ & 1.358$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.102) & (0.102) & (0.101) \\
## & & & \\
## competence\_length & $-$0.005 & $-$0.005 & $-$0.005 \\
## & (0.003) & (0.003) & (0.003) \\
## & & & \\
## factor(new)1 & 0.016 & 0.023 & 0.019 \\
## & (0.090) & (0.090) & (0.090) \\
## & & & \\
## factor(form)Directive & 0.531$^{***}$ & 0.521$^{***}$ & 0.516$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.174) & (0.175) & (0.175) \\
## & & & \\
## factor(form)Regulation & 0.498$^{***}$ & 0.487$^{***}$ & 0.479$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.165) & (0.165) & (0.165) \\
## & & & \\
## factor(elections\_dummy)1 & $-$0.209 & $-$0.213 & $-$0.209 \\
## & (0.129) & (0.130) & (0.130) \\
## & & & \\
## lr\_proposal\_probability & 0.617$^{***}$ & 0.593$^{***}$ & 0.604$^{***}$ \\
## & (0.139) & (0.139) & (0.140) \\
## & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_all\_eu\_n\_of\_organiz & $-$0.002 & $-$0.002 & $-$0.002 \\
## & (0.006) & (0.006) & (0.006) \\
## & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_polarization\_imputed\_pa:ep\_amendments\_tabled & 0.004$^{*}$ & & \\
## & (0.002) & & \\
## & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_polarization\_imputed\_pa:council\_dissent & & $-$0.002 & \\
## & & (0.116) & \\
## & & & \\
## proposal\_t\_polarization\_imputed\_pa:Interinst\_conflict & & & 0.364 \\
## & & & (0.408) \\
## & & & \\
## Constant & $-$0.098 & $-$0.252 & $-$0.098 \\
## & (0.419) & (0.415) & (0.448) \\
## & & & \\
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## EP term FE & Yes & Yes & Yes \\
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## Observations & 515 & 515 & 515 \\
## Log Likelihood & $-$1,137.265 & $-$1,138.823 & $-$1,138.467 \\
## $\theta$ & 2.299$^{***}$ (0.216) & 2.270$^{***}$ (0.212) & 2.276$^{***}$ (0.213) \\
## Akaike Inf. Crit. & 2,310.530 & 2,313.646 & 2,312.933 \\
## \hline
## \hline \\[-1.8ex]
## \textit{Note:} & \multicolumn{3}{r}{$^{*}$p$<$0.1; $^{**}$p$<$0.05; $^{***}$p$<$0.01} \\
## \end{tabular}
## \end{table}#visualizations
#m1
predict_polarization1 <- ggpredict(m1_intensity, terms = "proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa[all]")
ggplot(predict_polarization1, aes(x=x, y=predicted)) +
geom_line(stat = "identity", linetype="solid") +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high) , linetype=1, alpha = .3, fill = "deepskyblue2") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Polarization (time proposal)", y = "Predicted number of trilogues") 
#salience
predict_salience <- ggpredict(m1_intensity, terms = "proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa[all]")
ggplot(predict_salience, aes(x=x, y=predicted)) +
geom_line(stat = "identity", linetype="solid") +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high) , linetype=1, alpha = .3, fill = "deepskyblue2") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Salience (time proposal)", y = "Predicted number of trilogues") 
#ep amendments
predict_ep <- ggpredict(m1_intensity, terms = "ep_amendments_tabled[all]")
ggplot(predict_ep, aes(x=x, y=predicted)) +
geom_line(stat = "identity", linetype="solid") +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high) , linetype=1, alpha = .3, fill = "deepskyblue2") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "N of EP amendments", y = "Predicted number of trilogues") 
#council dissent
predict_council <- ggpredict(m1_intensity, terms = "council_dissent[all]")
ggplot(predict_council, aes(x=x, y=predicted)) +
geom_line(stat = "identity", linetype="solid") +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high) , linetype=1, alpha = .3, fill = "deepskyblue2") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Council dissent", y = "Predicted number of trilogues") 
#interinst conflict
predict_insitutions <- ggpredict(m1_intensity, terms = "Interinst_conflict[all]")
ggplot(predict_insitutions, aes(x=x, y=predicted)) +
geom_line(stat = "identity", linetype="solid") +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high) , linetype=1, alpha = .3, fill = "deepskyblue2") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Interinstitutional conflict", y = "Predicted number of trilogues") 
#m2
#a
predict_sal_ep <- ggpredict(m2_intensity_a, terms = c("ep_amendments_tabled", "proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa[0.1, 1]"))
predict_sal_ep_plot <- ggplot(predict_sal_ep, aes(x=x, y=predicted, group=group)) +
geom_line(aes(color=group)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill=group , color=group),
alpha = .3, linetype="dotted") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Salience (time proposal)") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Salience (time proposal)") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "EP amendments (tabled)", y = "Predicted number of trilogues ")
#b
predict_sal_c <- ggpredict(m2_intensity_b, terms = c("council_dissent", "proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa[0.1, 1]"))
predict_sal_c_plot <- ggplot(predict_sal_c, aes(x=x, y=predicted, group=group)) +
geom_line(aes(color=group)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill=group , color=group),
alpha = .3, linetype="dotted") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Salience (time proposal)") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Salience (time proposal)") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Council dissent", y = "Predicted number of trilogues")
#c
predict_sal_inst <- ggpredict(m2_intensity_c, terms = c("council_dissent", "proposal_t_salience_imputed_pa[0.1, 1]"))
predict_sal_inst_plot <- ggplot(predict_sal_c, aes(x=x, y=predicted, group=group)) +
geom_line(aes(color=group)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill=group , color=group),
alpha = .3, linetype="dotted") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Salience (time proposal)") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Salience (time proposal)") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Inter-institutional conflict", y = "Predicted number of trilogues")
#m3
#a
predict_pol_ep <- ggpredict(m2_intensity_a, terms = c("ep_amendments_tabled", "proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa[0, 0.96]"))
predict_pol_ep_plot <- ggplot(predict_pol_ep, aes(x=x, y=predicted, group=group)) +
geom_line(aes(color=group)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill=group , color=group),
alpha = .3, linetype="dotted") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Polarization (time proposal)") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Polarization (time proposal)") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "EP amendments (tabled)", y = "Predicted number of trilogues ")
#b
predict_pol_c <- ggpredict(m3_intensity_b, terms = c("council_dissent", "proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa[0, 0.96]"))
predict_pol_c_plot <- ggplot(predict_pol_c, aes(x=x, y=predicted, group=group)) +
geom_line(aes(color=group)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill=group , color=group),
alpha = .3, linetype="dotted") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Polarization (time proposal)") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Polarization (time proposal)") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Council dissent", y = "Predicted number of trilogues ")
#c
predict_pol_inst <- ggpredict(m3_intensity_c, terms = c("council_dissent", "proposal_t_polarization_imputed_pa[0, 0.96]"))
predict_pol_inst_plot <- ggplot(predict_pol_inst, aes(x=x, y=predicted, group=group)) +
geom_line(aes(color=group)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill=group , color=group),
alpha = .3, linetype="dotted") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Polarization (time proposal)") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Polarization (time proposal)") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Inter-institutional conflict", y = "Predicted number of trilogues ")
ggsave("~/Desktop/NORFACE/predict_pol_inst_plot.png", predict_pol_inst_plot)## Saving 7 x 5 in imageggsave("~/Desktop/NORFACE/predict_pol_c_plot.png", predict_pol_c_plot)## Saving 7 x 5 in imageggsave("~/Desktop/NORFACE/predict_pol_ep_plot.png", predict_pol_ep_plot)## Saving 7 x 5 in imageggsave("~/Desktop/NORFACE/predict_sal_inst_plot.png", predict_sal_inst_plot)## Saving 7 x 5 in imageggsave("~/Desktop/NORFACE/predict_sal_c_plot.png", predict_sal_c_plot)## Saving 7 x 5 in imageggsave("~/Desktop/NORFACE/predict_sal_ep_plot.png", predict_sal_ep_plot)## Saving 7 x 5 in image