Interactions_trilogue_20220521
Aleksandra Khokhlova
5/21/2022
#data
load("~/Desktop/NORFACE/trilogues_duration.RData")Interactions duration of trilogues
int1 <- glm.nb(duration_negotiations_days ~
proposal_t_eupolarizarion + proposal_t_wmean_eu_salience +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + lr_proposal_probability*proposal_t_eupolarizarion +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_duration)
#summary(int1)
int2 <- glm.nb(duration_negotiations_days ~
proposal_t_eupolarizarion + proposal_t_wmean_eu_salience +
Interinst_conflict + ep_amendments_tabled + council_dissent +
N_eurovoc_terms + factor(package_deal) + competence_length + factor(new) + factor(form) + factor(elections_dummy) + lr_proposal_probability + lr_proposal_probability*proposal_t_wmean_eu_salience +
factor(term),
data = trilogues_duration)
#summary(int2)
stargazer(int1, int2, type = "text")##
## ======================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------------
## duration_negotiations_days
## (1) (2)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## proposal_t_eupolarizarion 1.280** 0.480*
## (0.552) (0.283)
##
## proposal_t_wmean_eu_salience 0.249 1.929**
## (0.426) (0.754)
##
## Interinst_conflict -0.236* -0.256*
## (0.132) (0.131)
##
## ep_amendments_tabled 0.002*** 0.002***
## (0.001) (0.001)
##
## council_dissent 0.052 0.046
## (0.042) (0.042)
##
## N_eurovoc_terms 0.052 0.067*
## (0.035) (0.035)
##
## factor(package_deal)1 0.778*** 0.636***
## (0.173) (0.178)
##
## competence_length -0.008 -0.012**
## (0.005) (0.005)
##
## factor(new)1 0.156 0.159
## (0.143) (0.142)
##
## factor(form)Directive 0.943*** 0.928***
## (0.267) (0.265)
##
## factor(form)Regulation 0.854*** 0.826***
## (0.249) (0.248)
##
## factor(elections_dummy)1 -0.179 -0.260
## (0.191) (0.191)
##
## lr_proposal_probability 2.147*** 4.467***
## (0.570) (1.305)
##
## factor(term)8 -0.022 -0.084
## (0.143) (0.141)
##
## proposal_t_eupolarizarion:lr_proposal_probability -1.845*
## (0.971)
##
## proposal_t_wmean_eu_salience:lr_proposal_probability -3.961***
## (1.532)
##
## Constant 1.717** 0.874
## (0.680) (0.783)
##
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 391 391
## Log Likelihood -2,045.392 -2,043.815
## theta 0.672*** (0.043) 0.677*** (0.044)
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 4,122.785 4,119.629
## ======================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01#visualizations of interaction effects
predict_int1 <- ggpredict(int1, terms = c("proposal_t_eupolarizarion", "lr_proposal_probability[0.1, 0.99]"))
ggplot(predict_int1, aes(x=x, y=predicted, group=group)) +
geom_line(aes(color=group)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill=group , color=group),
alpha = .3, linetype="dotted") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Integration potential of proposal") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Integration potential of proposal") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Polarization (time proposal)", y = "Predicted duration of trilogues (days)") 
predict_int2 <- ggpredict(int2, terms = c("proposal_t_wmean_eu_salience", "lr_proposal_probability[0.1, 0.99]"))
ggplot(predict_int2, aes(x=x, y=predicted, group=group)) +
geom_line(aes(color=group)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high, fill=group , color=group),
alpha = .3, linetype="dotted") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Integration potential of proposal") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("deepskyblue2", "palevioletred4"), labels = c("Low", "High"), name="Integration potential of proposal") +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = NULL, x = "Salience (time proposal)", y = "Predicted duration of trilogues (days)") 