1 Summary

This study is a quantitative intersectional analysis, using two-level hierarchical data with individuals at level 1 nested within intersectional strata at level 2. We modeled the probability of binge drinking using two-level random-intercept logistic regression models stratified by 10-year cohorts of HS seniors, to estimate differences in strata-level probabilities over time, shown in equation 1.

\[\begin{align*} logit(\pi_{j})=\beta_0+\beta_{1baseyr}+\beta_{2strata}+\beta_{1baseyr}*\beta_{2strata}+\sigma_i+\mu_j)\tag{1} \\ \end{align*}\]

1.1 Aims

  1. Describe trends in binge drinking across four cohorts of high school seniors
  2. Identify emerging high-risk groups who experienced the greatest recent increases in binge drinking
  3. Decompose recent increases to understand key drivers of inter-group differences

2 Defining social strata

Sociodemographic proxies of social identity and social process were used to construct intersectional strata, using the following four social identity variables. There are 88 possible social strata reflecting unique combinations of these variables.

Sex: Male; Female

Race/Ethnicity: NH Black, NH White, Hispanic, Asian/PI

SES:
- Age 18 = parent earned a HS diploma? y/n;
- Age 19-30 = attending college? y/n; if no, working full-time? y/n

Age: 18; 19-22; 23-26; 27-30

3 Analysis

3.1 Variance Partition Coefficient (VPC)

The VPC is defined as the proportion of variation in the probability of binge drinking that can be attributed to differences between social strata.

In a multi-level logistic model, the VPC is calculated as:

\[\begin{align*} VPC=\frac{\sigma^{2}}{\sigma^{2}+3.29}*100\tag{2} \\ \end{align*}\]

From the model (see equation 1), we get the following variance of the random effects:

\[\begin{align*} {\sigma^{2}_{strata}}=0.5401 \tag{3} \\ \end{align*}\]

\[\begin{align*} {\sigma^{2}_{baseyr*strata}}=0.2240\tag{4} \\ \end{align*}\]

Given the variance estimates (3) and (4),

\[\begin{align*} VPC=\frac{(.2240+.5401)}{(.2240+.5401)+3.29}*100 = 18.8\\ \end{align*}\]

18.8% of the variance in binge drinking is accounted for by strata differences.

3.2 Predicted probability of binge drinking

Using the random effects variances estimated in model 1 (\(\mu_{j=1,2,...,88})\)), we calculated the predicted probabilities of binge drinking.

For each stratum, \[\begin{align*} \hat{Pr(binge)}= \frac {(exp\beta_0+\beta_{1baseyr}*\beta_{2strata}+\mu_j)}{1+(exp\beta_0+\beta_{1baseyr}*\beta_{2strata}+\mu_j)} \tag{5}\\ \end{align*}\]

4 Results

4.1 Predicted probabilities of binge drinking across all base years [Aim 1]

4.1.1 Figure

4.1.2 Table

strata n base_year10 prob prob_lower prob_upper
18, Asian, female, high.parent.ed 201 1976-85 32.77 20.81 47.49
18, Asian, female, low.parent.ed 245 1976-85 44.95 30.58 60.22
18, Asian, male, high.parent.ed 213 1976-85 55.51 40.59 69.50
18, Asian, male, low.parent.ed 282 1976-85 57.59 42.43 71.44
18, Black, female, high.parent.ed 611 1976-85 16.56 9.93 26.33
18, Black, female, low.parent.ed 852 1976-85 16.05 9.56 25.70
18, Black, male, high.parent.ed 511 1976-85 30.97 20.27 44.19
18, Black, male, low.parent.ed 706 1976-85 34.06 22.50 47.88
18, Hispanic, female, high.parent.ed 139 1976-85 30.76 19.09 45.54
18, Hispanic, female, low.parent.ed 293 1976-85 28.24 17.85 41.61
18, Hispanic, male, high.parent.ed 130 1976-85 53.95 38.58 68.61
18, Hispanic, male, low.parent.ed 248 1976-85 48.99 34.75 63.39
18, White, female, high.parent.ed 5270 1976-85 40.08 28.56 52.80
18, White, female, low.parent.ed 4453 1976-85 42.97 30.96 55.88
18, White, male, high.parent.ed 5483 1976-85 61.18 48.51 72.49
18, White, male, low.parent.ed 4174 1976-85 62.04 49.30 73.32
19-22, Asian, female, employed 444 1976-85 35.06 23.18 49.14
19-22, Asian, female, in.college 123 1976-85 37.24 23.83 52.96
19-22, Asian, female, unemployed 325 1976-85 28.94 18.35 42.45
19-22, Asian, male, employed 576 1976-85 54.58 40.66 67.82
19-22, Asian, male, in.college 160 1976-85 52.54 37.34 67.29
19-22, Asian, male, unemployed 254 1976-85 45.44 31.48 60.16
19-22, Black, female, employed 1055 1976-85 19.45 12.14 29.67
19-22, Black, female, in.college 713 1976-85 16.55 10.07 26.01
19-22, Black, female, unemployed 1158 1976-85 16.26 9.99 25.36
19-22, Black, male, employed 1227 1976-85 37.90 26.24 51.15
19-22, Black, male, in.college 562 1976-85 35.06 23.53 48.65
19-22, Black, male, unemployed 645 1976-85 35.07 23.61 48.55
19-22, Hispanic, female, employed 371 1976-85 29.04 18.67 42.20
19-22, Hispanic, female, in.college 141 1976-85 30.95 19.32 45.61
19-22, Hispanic, female, unemployed 352 1976-85 25.69 16.17 38.26
19-22, Hispanic, male, employed 411 1976-85 55.22 41.25 68.42
19-22, Hispanic, male, in.college 131 1976-85 46.52 31.84 61.83
19-22, Hispanic, male, unemployed 214 1976-85 49.06 34.73 63.55
19-22, White, female, employed 7704 1976-85 38.85 27.53 51.51
19-22, White, female, in.college 5647 1976-85 43.73 31.74 56.50
19-22, White, female, unemployed 6095 1976-85 34.70 24.10 47.06
19-22, White, male, employed 9394 1976-85 60.54 47.89 71.92
19-22, White, male, in.college 5569 1976-85 62.95 50.40 73.96
19-22, White, male, unemployed 4351 1976-85 59.25 46.46 70.90
23-26, Asian, female, employed 521 1976-85 28.50 18.42 41.30
23-26, Asian, female, in.college 62 1976-85 28.60 16.37 45.05
23-26, Asian, female, unemployed 309 1976-85 26.63 16.55 39.91
23-26, Asian, male, employed 731 1976-85 48.87 35.60 62.31
23-26, Asian, male, in.college 93 1976-85 40.80 26.06 57.40
23-26, Asian, male, unemployed 166 1976-85 43.34 29.06 58.82
23-26, Black, female, employed 1832 1976-85 14.62 9.06 22.73
23-26, Black, female, in.college 220 1976-85 13.58 7.45 23.47
23-26, Black, female, unemployed 874 1976-85 17.48 10.72 27.22
23-26, Black, male, employed 1756 1976-85 32.97 22.46 45.51
23-26, Black, male, in.college 211 1976-85 32.14 20.21 46.96
23-26, Black, male, unemployed 467 1976-85 37.07 24.95 51.07
23-26, Hispanic, female, employed 542 1976-85 22.88 14.44 34.27
23-26, Hispanic, female, in.college 62 1976-85 19.66 10.72 33.27
23-26, Hispanic, female, unemployed 260 1976-85 17.89 10.53 28.75
23-26, Hispanic, male, employed 561 1976-85 48.14 34.90 61.65
23-26, Hispanic, male, in.college 72 1976-85 42.32 27.30 58.91
23-26, Hispanic, male, unemployed 123 1976-85 45.64 30.90 61.18
23-26, White, female, employed 12579 1976-85 30.80 21.07 42.60
23-26, White, female, in.college 1459 1976-85 31.14 21.02 43.45
23-26, White, female, unemployed 5408 1976-85 22.63 14.85 32.92
23-26, White, male, employed 14397 1976-85 53.58 40.93 65.80
23-26, White, male, in.college 2162 1976-85 51.20 38.35 63.89
23-26, White, male, unemployed 2755 1976-85 52.14 39.31 64.70
27-30, Asian, female, employed 556 1976-85 23.71 14.95 35.47
27-30, Asian, female, in.college 24 1976-85 26.08 13.78 43.77
27-30, Asian, female, unemployed 312 1976-85 25.68 15.84 38.83
27-30, Asian, male, employed 822 1976-85 41.29 28.99 54.79
27-30, Asian, male, in.college 35 1976-85 37.19 21.66 55.90
27-30, Asian, male, unemployed 133 1976-85 37.39 23.78 53.34
27-30, Black, female, employed 2030 1976-85 14.26 8.84 22.19
27-30, Black, female, in.college 104 1976-85 13.56 6.96 24.76
27-30, Black, female, unemployed 792 1976-85 14.93 8.94 23.89
27-30, Black, male, employed 1998 1976-85 31.36 21.23 43.64
27-30, Black, male, in.college 100 1976-85 27.15 15.68 42.76
27-30, Black, male, unemployed 336 1976-85 32.03 20.66 46.04
27-30, Hispanic, female, employed 573 1976-85 19.79 12.29 30.29
27-30, Hispanic, female, in.college 36 1976-85 20.10 10.48 35.08
27-30, Hispanic, female, unemployed 255 1976-85 17.74 10.40 28.62
27-30, Hispanic, male, employed 615 1976-85 38.87 26.89 52.35
27-30, Hispanic, male, in.college 38 1976-85 30.17 17.10 47.52
27-30, Hispanic, male, unemployed 103 1976-85 41.09 26.75 57.11
27-30, White, female, employed 12671 1976-85 24.12 16.00 34.65
27-30, White, female, in.college 680 1976-85 19.85 12.35 30.34
27-30, White, female, unemployed 6095 1976-85 16.53 10.55 24.95
27-30, White, male, employed 16323 1976-85 45.37 33.27 58.04
27-30, White, male, in.college 852 1976-85 37.10 25.50 50.41
27-30, White, male, unemployed 2139 1976-85 43.35 31.19 56.36
18, Asian, female, high.parent.ed 267 1986-95 27.12 16.74 40.78
18, Asian, female, low.parent.ed 231 1986-95 35.34 22.64 50.51
18, Asian, male, high.parent.ed 321 1986-95 52.57 38.11 66.62
18, Asian, male, low.parent.ed 217 1986-95 51.73 36.59 66.56
18, Black, female, high.parent.ed 835 1986-95 10.78 6.25 17.98
18, Black, female, low.parent.ed 565 1986-95 12.76 7.33 21.29
18, Black, male, high.parent.ed 730 1986-95 28.12 18.22 40.74
18, Black, male, low.parent.ed 458 1986-95 28.38 18.00 41.70
18, Hispanic, female, high.parent.ed 396 1986-95 27.70 17.39 41.07
18, Hispanic, female, low.parent.ed 594 1986-95 27.62 17.66 40.43
18, Hispanic, male, high.parent.ed 460 1986-95 46.94 33.14 61.23
18, Hispanic, male, low.parent.ed 534 1986-95 51.67 37.74 65.34
18, White, female, high.parent.ed 6298 1986-95 37.47 26.38 50.06
18, White, female, low.parent.ed 3018 1986-95 39.22 27.70 52.09
18, White, male, high.parent.ed 6330 1986-95 55.08 42.32 67.20
18, White, male, low.parent.ed 2750 1986-95 55.84 42.88 68.05
19-22, Asian, female, employed 378 1986-95 30.70 19.69 44.45
19-22, Asian, female, in.college 215 1986-95 31.14 19.50 45.78
19-22, Asian, female, unemployed 403 1986-95 25.29 15.75 38.01
19-22, Asian, male, employed 510 1986-95 53.11 39.18 66.58
19-22, Asian, male, in.college 233 1986-95 53.32 38.42 67.65
19-22, Asian, male, unemployed 333 1986-95 45.79 31.95 60.31
19-22, Black, female, employed 919 1986-95 20.23 12.61 30.82
19-22, Black, female, in.college 852 1986-95 16.30 9.90 25.65
19-22, Black, female, unemployed 1029 1986-95 13.80 8.30 22.05
19-22, Black, male, employed 1064 1986-95 39.41 27.44 52.81
19-22, Black, male, in.college 580 1986-95 40.12 27.64 54.02
19-22, Black, male, unemployed 732 1986-95 29.75 19.49 42.57
19-22, Hispanic, female, employed 736 1986-95 31.03 20.42 44.11
19-22, Hispanic, female, in.college 461 1986-95 35.46 23.48 49.59
19-22, Hispanic, female, unemployed 783 1986-95 24.78 15.77 36.69
19-22, Hispanic, male, employed 939 1986-95 48.95 35.71 62.33
19-22, Hispanic, male, in.college 472 1986-95 46.32 32.64 60.58
19-22, Hispanic, male, unemployed 577 1986-95 47.82 34.27 61.70
19-22, White, female, employed 6000 1986-95 38.57 27.28 51.24
19-22, White, female, in.college 7221 1986-95 46.14 33.90 58.86
19-22, White, female, unemployed 5411 1986-95 35.55 24.78 48.01
19-22, White, male, employed 7487 1986-95 58.10 45.36 69.84
19-22, White, male, in.college 6316 1986-95 63.45 50.95 74.37
19-22, White, male, unemployed 4357 1986-95 55.19 42.37 67.35
23-26, Asian, female, employed 581 1986-95 26.98 17.29 39.50
23-26, Asian, female, in.college 100 1986-95 24.40 13.74 39.53
23-26, Asian, female, unemployed 315 1986-95 24.62 15.07 37.55
23-26, Asian, male, employed 739 1986-95 49.57 36.24 62.96
23-26, Asian, male, in.college 127 1986-95 47.66 32.06 63.72
23-26, Asian, male, unemployed 210 1986-95 45.76 31.30 60.97
23-26, Black, female, employed 1780 1986-95 15.83 9.84 24.46
23-26, Black, female, in.college 286 1986-95 12.25 6.67 21.42
23-26, Black, female, unemployed 734 1986-95 15.89 9.57 25.22
23-26, Black, male, employed 1645 1986-95 36.35 25.15 49.26
23-26, Black, male, in.college 246 1986-95 30.56 19.06 45.11
23-26, Black, male, unemployed 485 1986-95 33.04 21.73 46.72
23-26, Hispanic, female, employed 1196 1986-95 27.88 18.30 40.02
23-26, Hispanic, female, in.college 190 1986-95 23.62 13.74 37.53
23-26, Hispanic, female, unemployed 594 1986-95 24.36 15.23 36.59
23-26, Hispanic, male, employed 1391 1986-95 51.45 38.33 64.39
23-26, Hispanic, male, in.college 253 1986-95 43.16 29.01 58.52
23-26, Hispanic, male, unemployed 344 1986-95 41.57 28.22 56.28
23-26, White, female, employed 11814 1986-95 34.55 24.04 46.82
23-26, White, female, in.college 2227 1986-95 36.76 25.58 49.58
23-26, White, female, unemployed 4591 1986-95 27.68 18.56 39.11
23-26, White, male, employed 13199 1986-95 55.51 42.82 67.52
23-26, White, male, in.college 2433 1986-95 54.79 41.83 67.13
23-26, White, male, unemployed 2528 1986-95 52.61 39.74 65.15
27-30, Asian, female, employed 603 1986-95 22.80 14.28 34.37
27-30, Asian, female, in.college 65 1986-95 22.64 11.97 38.66
27-30, Asian, female, unemployed 328 1986-95 21.44 12.85 33.57
27-30, Asian, male, employed 838 1986-95 48.96 35.78 62.29
27-30, Asian, male, in.college 63 1986-95 41.23 25.08 59.53
27-30, Asian, male, unemployed 175 1986-95 41.23 27.02 57.08
27-30, Black, female, employed 2002 1986-95 14.66 9.08 22.80
27-30, Black, female, in.college 158 1986-95 14.11 7.34 25.43
27-30, Black, female, unemployed 640 1986-95 12.20 7.09 20.18
27-30, Black, male, employed 1852 1986-95 33.11 22.58 45.65
27-30, Black, male, in.college 152 1986-95 29.08 17.18 44.77
27-30, Black, male, unemployed 372 1986-95 31.77 20.46 45.74
27-30, Hispanic, female, employed 1280 1986-95 25.38 16.46 36.99
27-30, Hispanic, female, in.college 105 1986-95 22.81 12.50 37.93
27-30, Hispanic, female, unemployed 595 1986-95 18.48 11.13 29.08
27-30, Hispanic, male, employed 1609 1986-95 45.59 33.00 58.78
27-30, Hispanic, male, in.college 107 1986-95 38.66 23.91 55.83
27-30, Hispanic, male, unemployed 272 1986-95 41.61 27.93 56.73
27-30, White, female, employed 12528 1986-95 28.95 19.63 40.47
27-30, White, female, in.college 934 1986-95 25.14 16.16 36.93
27-30, White, female, unemployed 5170 1986-95 19.96 12.92 29.53
27-30, White, male, employed 15066 1986-95 49.23 36.79 61.76
27-30, White, male, in.college 1023 1986-95 44.54 31.86 57.97
27-30, White, male, unemployed 2071 1986-95 45.70 33.26 58.70
18, Asian, female, high.parent.ed 423 1996-05 29.08 18.42 42.69
18, Asian, female, low.parent.ed 183 1996-05 32.36 20.25 47.42
18, Asian, male, high.parent.ed 461 1996-05 40.29 27.42 54.64
18, Asian, male, low.parent.ed 162 1996-05 44.63 30.02 60.23
18, Black, female, high.parent.ed 978 1996-05 11.81 6.94 19.39
18, Black, female, low.parent.ed 525 1996-05 12.07 6.90 20.26
18, Black, male, high.parent.ed 827 1996-05 25.38 16.25 37.34
18, Black, male, low.parent.ed 342 1996-05 24.74 15.27 37.49
18, Hispanic, female, high.parent.ed 665 1996-05 30.12 19.40 43.55
18, Hispanic, female, low.parent.ed 662 1996-05 28.23 18.17 41.06
18, Hispanic, male, high.parent.ed 612 1996-05 43.97 30.67 58.19
18, Hispanic, male, low.parent.ed 552 1996-05 42.17 29.25 56.26
18, White, female, high.parent.ed 6481 1996-05 36.05 25.21 48.52
18, White, female, low.parent.ed 2279 1996-05 36.14 25.11 48.86
18, White, male, high.parent.ed 6377 1996-05 50.64 38.04 63.17
18, White, male, low.parent.ed 2120 1996-05 49.20 36.47 62.04
19-22, Asian, female, employed 326 1996-05 34.42 22.50 48.69
19-22, Asian, female, in.college 441 1996-05 34.36 22.35 48.76
19-22, Asian, female, unemployed 445 1996-05 28.80 18.38 42.10
19-22, Asian, male, employed 462 1996-05 48.07 34.43 62.01
19-22, Asian, male, in.college 385 1996-05 48.63 34.42 63.06
19-22, Asian, male, unemployed 399 1996-05 42.56 29.28 57.01
19-22, Black, female, employed 894 1996-05 21.54 13.54 32.49
19-22, Black, female, in.college 1045 1996-05 18.83 11.68 28.92
19-22, Black, female, unemployed 1067 1996-05 16.17 9.90 25.31
19-22, Black, male, employed 934 1996-05 35.97 24.58 49.20
19-22, Black, male, in.college 615 1996-05 33.80 22.55 47.24
19-22, Black, male, unemployed 789 1996-05 28.04 18.24 40.49
19-22, Hispanic, female, employed 904 1996-05 30.36 19.99 43.22
19-22, Hispanic, female, in.college 783 1996-05 36.34 24.41 50.24
19-22, Hispanic, female, unemployed 967 1996-05 24.53 15.67 36.25
19-22, Hispanic, male, employed 959 1996-05 48.02 34.88 61.45
19-22, Hispanic, male, in.college 624 1996-05 47.34 33.69 61.40
19-22, Hispanic, male, unemployed 745 1996-05 42.77 29.93 56.67
19-22, White, female, employed 4441 1996-05 40.13 28.57 52.89
19-22, White, female, in.college 8119 1996-05 46.11 33.88 58.82
19-22, White, female, unemployed 4960 1996-05 36.26 25.36 48.79
19-22, White, male, employed 5912 1996-05 54.79 42.03 66.95
19-22, White, male, in.college 6812 1996-05 60.15 47.46 71.61
19-22, White, male, unemployed 4270 1996-05 50.53 37.87 63.11
23-26, Asian, female, employed 681 1996-05 29.85 19.52 42.75
23-26, Asian, female, in.college 177 1996-05 32.14 19.44 48.17
23-26, Asian, female, unemployed 354 1996-05 27.62 17.30 41.03
23-26, Asian, male, employed 755 1996-05 48.34 35.12 61.80
23-26, Asian, male, in.college 193 1996-05 46.58 31.47 62.35
23-26, Asian, male, unemployed 298 1996-05 39.30 26.11 54.27
23-26, Black, female, employed 1737 1996-05 19.97 12.70 29.98
23-26, Black, female, in.college 384 1996-05 14.54 8.17 24.56
23-26, Black, female, unemployed 885 1996-05 17.61 10.79 27.42
23-26, Black, male, employed 1607 1996-05 33.90 23.17 46.58
23-26, Black, male, in.college 245 1996-05 35.04 22.49 50.08
23-26, Black, male, unemployed 486 1996-05 32.38 21.24 45.94
23-26, Hispanic, female, employed 1567 1996-05 29.99 19.97 42.37
23-26, Hispanic, female, in.college 376 1996-05 27.84 16.96 42.16
23-26, Hispanic, female, unemployed 711 1996-05 21.27 13.14 32.54
23-26, Hispanic, male, employed 1550 1996-05 47.62 34.80 60.77
23-26, Hispanic, male, in.college 290 1996-05 45.94 31.50 61.10
23-26, Hispanic, male, unemployed 488 1996-05 43.57 30.12 58.04
23-26, White, female, employed 10746 1996-05 39.33 27.99 51.95
23-26, White, female, in.college 2495 1996-05 40.85 29.02 53.84
23-26, White, female, unemployed 4279 1996-05 31.48 21.49 43.53
23-26, White, male, employed 11625 1996-05 55.44 42.74 67.46
23-26, White, male, in.college 2454 1996-05 54.75 41.79 67.09
23-26, White, male, unemployed 2915 1996-05 50.03 37.32 62.74
27-30, Asian, female, employed 770 1996-05 28.39 18.45 40.99
27-30, Asian, female, in.college 107 1996-05 31.38 17.92 48.93
27-30, Asian, female, unemployed 335 1996-05 24.92 15.30 37.89
27-30, Asian, male, employed 955 1996-05 45.25 32.48 58.68
27-30, Asian, male, in.college 101 1996-05 34.71 20.47 52.33
27-30, Asian, male, unemployed 190 1996-05 35.60 22.61 51.13
27-30, Black, female, employed 2002 1996-05 18.07 11.41 27.42
27-30, Black, female, in.college 208 1996-05 13.23 6.92 23.84
27-30, Black, female, unemployed 796 1996-05 16.21 9.76 25.71
27-30, Black, male, employed 1784 1996-05 32.94 22.45 45.47
27-30, Black, male, in.college 146 1996-05 29.63 17.57 45.39
27-30, Black, male, unemployed 408 1996-05 29.71 18.97 43.27
27-30, Hispanic, female, employed 1728 1996-05 25.86 16.88 37.46
27-30, Hispanic, female, in.college 186 1996-05 25.35 14.41 40.65
27-30, Hispanic, female, unemployed 740 1996-05 18.32 11.11 28.71
27-30, Hispanic, male, employed 1813 1996-05 44.14 31.74 57.32
27-30, Hispanic, male, in.college 142 1996-05 35.90 22.00 52.65
27-30, Hispanic, male, unemployed 373 1996-05 41.11 27.71 55.98
27-30, White, female, employed 11726 1996-05 32.05 22.05 44.03
27-30, White, female, in.college 1091 1996-05 28.75 18.88 41.15
27-30, White, female, unemployed 4703 1996-05 24.63 16.29 35.44
27-30, White, male, employed 13475 1996-05 49.73 37.26 62.24
27-30, White, male, in.college 1074 1996-05 42.42 30.03 55.83
27-30, White, male, unemployed 2445 1996-05 43.14 31.03 56.14
18, Asian, female, high.parent.ed 1161 2006-19 25.01 15.74 37.31
18, Asian, female, low.parent.ed 397 2006-19 32.16 20.50 46.56
18, Asian, male, high.parent.ed 968 2006-19 34.67 23.13 48.34
18, Asian, male, low.parent.ed 327 2006-19 38.36 25.29 53.37
18, Black, female, high.parent.ed 1242 2006-19 11.62 6.85 19.03
18, Black, female, low.parent.ed 578 2006-19 13.56 7.85 22.42
18, Black, male, high.parent.ed 1183 2006-19 20.61 12.94 31.20
18, Black, male, low.parent.ed 468 2006-19 19.26 11.59 30.26
18, Hispanic, female, high.parent.ed 1191 2006-19 24.95 15.76 37.15
18, Hispanic, female, low.parent.ed 1293 2006-19 19.92 12.39 30.43
18, Hispanic, male, high.parent.ed 1108 2006-19 35.95 24.18 49.71
18, Hispanic, male, low.parent.ed 1183 2006-19 29.81 19.56 42.58
18, White, female, high.parent.ed 7261 2006-19 29.45 19.97 41.11
18, White, female, low.parent.ed 2113 2006-19 30.32 20.47 42.40
18, White, male, high.parent.ed 7186 2006-19 40.12 28.62 52.83
18, White, male, low.parent.ed 1891 2006-19 40.49 28.70 53.49
19-22, Asian, female, employed 652 2006-19 34.50 22.87 48.34
19-22, Asian, female, in.college 1247 2006-19 36.98 24.72 51.18
19-22, Asian, female, unemployed 1217 2006-19 28.22 18.24 40.92
19-22, Asian, male, employed 708 2006-19 43.33 30.43 57.20
19-22, Asian, male, in.college 975 2006-19 44.39 31.03 58.61
19-22, Asian, male, unemployed 907 2006-19 37.56 25.45 51.46
19-22, Black, female, employed 862 2006-19 21.62 13.58 32.63
19-22, Black, female, in.college 1416 2006-19 24.70 15.86 36.34
19-22, Black, female, unemployed 1362 2006-19 17.53 10.85 27.08
19-22, Black, male, employed 899 2006-19 34.88 23.68 48.04
19-22, Black, male, in.college 1143 2006-19 31.87 21.23 44.81
19-22, Black, male, unemployed 1260 2006-19 23.33 14.91 34.57
19-22, Hispanic, female, employed 1229 2006-19 28.13 18.37 40.49
19-22, Hispanic, female, in.college 1724 2006-19 32.13 21.27 45.35
19-22, Hispanic, female, unemployed 2015 2006-19 24.46 15.75 35.93
19-22, Hispanic, male, employed 1434 2006-19 42.60 30.17 56.03
19-22, Hispanic, male, in.college 1473 2006-19 42.91 30.05 56.81
19-22, Hispanic, male, unemployed 1675 2006-19 34.98 23.68 48.26
19-22, White, female, employed 3716 2006-19 37.74 26.55 50.41
19-22, White, female, in.college 9221 2006-19 41.92 30.19 54.65
19-22, White, female, unemployed 5811 2006-19 31.49 21.54 43.49
19-22, White, male, employed 4889 2006-19 50.13 37.54 62.70
19-22, White, male, in.college 8121 2006-19 53.20 40.50 65.50
19-22, White, male, unemployed 5144 2006-19 42.14 30.31 54.95
23-26, Asian, female, employed 1707 2006-19 38.73 26.79 52.20
23-26, Asian, female, in.college 479 2006-19 31.86 19.59 47.28
23-26, Asian, female, unemployed 930 2006-19 31.95 20.86 45.53
23-26, Asian, male, employed 1592 2006-19 52.63 39.36 65.53
23-26, Asian, male, in.college 383 2006-19 43.66 29.34 59.12
23-26, Asian, male, unemployed 615 2006-19 46.44 32.52 60.94
23-26, Black, female, employed 2094 2006-19 29.44 19.65 41.58
23-26, Black, female, in.college 457 2006-19 22.46 13.31 35.33
23-26, Black, female, unemployed 1089 2006-19 22.47 14.18 33.70
23-26, Black, male, employed 2091 2006-19 41.99 29.94 55.09
23-26, Black, male, in.college 369 2006-19 38.79 25.67 53.76
23-26, Black, male, unemployed 842 2006-19 37.91 25.85 51.68
23-26, Hispanic, female, employed 2783 2006-19 32.08 21.67 44.64
23-26, Hispanic, female, in.college 601 2006-19 31.07 19.42 45.73
23-26, Hispanic, female, unemployed 1584 2006-19 27.30 17.60 39.75
23-26, Hispanic, male, employed 2875 2006-19 53.19 40.13 65.83
23-26, Hispanic, male, in.college 649 2006-19 51.46 36.85 65.82
23-26, Hispanic, male, unemployed 1058 2006-19 49.65 35.80 63.55
23-26, White, female, employed 11110 2006-19 38.61 27.38 51.19
23-26, White, female, in.college 2772 2006-19 39.26 27.69 52.18
23-26, White, female, unemployed 4866 2006-19 33.62 23.20 45.93
23-26, White, male, employed 11789 2006-19 56.11 43.41 68.06
23-26, White, male, in.college 2847 2006-19 51.52 38.70 64.15
23-26, White, male, unemployed 3518 2006-19 49.73 37.06 62.44
27-30, Asian, female, employed 1959 2006-19 33.58 22.64 46.62
27-30, Asian, female, in.college 269 2006-19 28.36 16.15 44.86
27-30, Asian, female, unemployed 888 2006-19 26.47 16.73 39.23
27-30, Asian, male, employed 1962 2006-19 47.79 34.94 60.93
27-30, Asian, male, in.college 191 2006-19 36.39 22.00 53.70
27-30, Asian, male, unemployed 437 2006-19 39.43 26.08 54.58
27-30, Black, female, employed 2394 2006-19 22.97 14.88 33.71
27-30, Black, female, in.college 295 2006-19 16.13 8.68 28.00
27-30, Black, female, unemployed 951 2006-19 20.87 12.94 31.89
27-30, Black, male, employed 2495 2006-19 38.96 27.40 51.91
27-30, Black, male, in.college 235 2006-19 26.33 15.49 41.08
27-30, Black, male, unemployed 572 2006-19 32.84 21.48 46.64
27-30, Hispanic, female, employed 3153 2006-19 28.53 18.95 40.53
27-30, Hispanic, female, in.college 321 2006-19 24.61 14.07 39.41
27-30, Hispanic, female, unemployed 1494 2006-19 24.58 15.57 36.54
27-30, Hispanic, male, employed 3508 2006-19 47.18 34.56 60.18
27-30, Hispanic, male, in.college 324 2006-19 39.62 25.25 56.03
27-30, Hispanic, male, unemployed 750 2006-19 43.35 29.87 57.88
27-30, White, female, employed 12508 2006-19 33.17 22.93 45.28
27-30, White, female, in.college 1371 2006-19 28.47 18.72 40.75
27-30, White, female, unemployed 4869 2006-19 25.62 17.02 36.65
27-30, White, male, employed 14219 2006-19 49.21 36.77 61.74
27-30, White, male, in.college 1277 2006-19 44.54 31.93 57.89
27-30, White, male, unemployed 2658 2006-19 43.72 31.54 56.71

4.2 Change in binge drinking since 1996 [Aim 2]

4.2.1 Figure

4.2.2 Table

strata range range_lower range_upper
18, Asian, female, high.parent.ed -4.08 -8.17 0.02
18, Asian, female, low.parent.ed -0.21 -6.96 6.55
18, Asian, male, high.parent.ed -5.62 -9.62 -1.62
18, Asian, male, low.parent.ed -6.27 -13.52 0.99
18, Black, female, high.parent.ed -0.19 -3.25 2.87
18, Black, female, low.parent.ed 1.49 -3.01 6.00
18, Black, male, high.parent.ed -4.77 -7.92 -1.62
18, Black, male, low.parent.ed -5.48 -10.72 -0.24
18, Hispanic, female, high.parent.ed -5.16 -8.58 -1.74
18, Hispanic, female, low.parent.ed -8.31 -11.67 -4.96
18, Hispanic, male, high.parent.ed -8.01 -11.54 -4.49
18, Hispanic, male, low.parent.ed -12.36 -15.96 -8.76
18, White, female, high.parent.ed -6.59 -7.70 -5.49
18, White, female, low.parent.ed -5.82 -7.81 -3.82
18, White, male, high.parent.ed -10.52 -11.63 -9.41
18, White, male, low.parent.ed -8.71 -10.80 -6.63
19-22, Asian, female, employed 0.09 -4.81 4.98
19-22, Asian, female, in.college 2.62 -1.36 6.60
19-22, Asian, female, unemployed -0.58 -4.54 3.37
19-22, Asian, male, employed -4.74 -8.93 -0.55
19-22, Asian, male, in.college -4.24 -8.54 0.06
19-22, Asian, male, unemployed -5.00 -9.27 -0.74
19-22, Black, female, employed 0.09 -3.25 3.42
19-22, Black, female, in.college 5.87 3.05 8.69
19-22, Black, female, unemployed 1.36 -1.49 4.21
19-22, Black, male, employed -1.09 -4.28 2.10
19-22, Black, male, in.college -1.93 -5.40 1.54
19-22, Black, male, unemployed -4.71 -7.85 -1.57
19-22, Hispanic, female, employed -2.24 -5.25 0.78
19-22, Hispanic, female, in.college -4.21 -7.21 -1.21
19-22, Hispanic, female, unemployed -0.07 -2.77 2.62
19-22, Hispanic, male, employed -5.43 -8.25 -2.60
19-22, Hispanic, male, in.college -4.43 -7.76 -1.10
19-22, Hispanic, male, unemployed -7.79 -10.83 -4.76
19-22, White, female, employed -2.39 -3.83 -0.94
19-22, White, female, in.college -4.18 -5.17 -3.20
19-22, White, female, unemployed -4.77 -6.03 -3.52
19-22, White, male, employed -4.66 -5.91 -3.41
19-22, White, male, in.college -6.95 -8.01 -5.89
19-22, White, male, unemployed -8.38 -9.73 -7.04
23-26, Asian, female, employed 8.88 5.74 12.02
23-26, Asian, female, in.college -0.28 -7.08 6.52
23-26, Asian, female, unemployed 4.33 -0.21 8.86
23-26, Asian, male, employed 4.28 1.28 7.29
23-26, Asian, male, in.college -2.92 -9.58 3.74
23-26, Asian, male, unemployed 7.14 2.00 12.28
23-26, Black, female, employed 9.47 7.28 11.65
23-26, Black, female, in.college 7.91 2.66 13.17
23-26, Black, female, unemployed 4.86 1.69 8.03
23-26, Black, male, employed 8.10 5.89 10.30
23-26, Black, male, in.college 3.75 -2.37 9.87
23-26, Black, male, unemployed 5.54 1.52 9.55
23-26, Hispanic, female, employed 2.09 -0.03 4.21
23-26, Hispanic, female, in.college 3.22 -1.67 8.12
23-26, Hispanic, female, unemployed 6.03 2.84 9.21
23-26, Hispanic, male, employed 5.57 3.47 7.66
23-26, Hispanic, male, in.college 5.51 0.34 10.68
23-26, Hispanic, male, unemployed 6.08 2.21 9.95
23-26, White, female, employed -0.72 -1.60 0.15
23-26, White, female, in.college -1.58 -3.40 0.23
23-26, White, female, unemployed 2.14 0.78 3.51
23-26, White, male, employed 0.68 -0.16 1.52
23-26, White, male, in.college -3.23 -5.03 -1.42
23-26, White, male, unemployed -0.30 -1.93 1.34
27-30, Asian, female, employed 5.20 2.26 8.14
27-30, Asian, female, in.college -3.02 -12.26 6.22
27-30, Asian, female, unemployed 1.55 -3.15 6.25
27-30, Asian, male, employed 2.54 -0.12 5.20
27-30, Asian, male, in.college 1.68 -8.21 11.56
27-30, Asian, male, unemployed 3.83 -2.73 10.39
27-30, Black, female, employed 4.89 2.86 6.93
27-30, Black, female, in.college 2.90 -4.37 10.16
27-30, Black, female, unemployed 4.66 1.25 8.08
27-30, Black, male, employed 6.02 3.96 8.07
27-30, Black, male, in.college -3.29 -11.56 4.98
27-30, Black, male, unemployed 3.14 -1.53 7.80
27-30, Hispanic, female, employed 2.67 0.66 4.68
27-30, Hispanic, female, in.college -0.74 -7.99 6.52
27-30, Hispanic, female, unemployed 6.25 3.06 9.44
27-30, Hispanic, male, employed 3.04 1.13 4.96
27-30, Hispanic, male, in.college 3.72 -4.14 11.58
27-30, Hispanic, male, unemployed 2.24 -2.33 6.80
27-30, White, female, employed 1.11 0.28 1.94
27-30, White, female, in.college -0.28 -3.05 2.49
27-30, White, female, unemployed 0.99 -0.35 2.32
27-30, White, male, employed -0.53 -1.30 0.25
27-30, White, male, in.college 2.12 -0.67 4.91
27-30, White, male, unemployed 0.58 -1.26 2.42

4.2.3 All strata one axis

4.3 Effect decomposition of 1996-05 to 2006-19 change [Aim 3]

4.3.1 Figure

4.3.2 Table

Age term estimate ci_low ci_high
18 (Intercept) -0.11 -0.13 -0.09
18 RaceEthnicityAsian 0.01 -0.01 0.04
18 RaceEthnicityBlack 0.08 0.06 0.11
18 RaceEthnicityHispanic 0.04 0.01 0.06
18 Sexmale -0.10 -0.12 -0.08
18 SESParent ed low -0.01 -0.03 0.00
19-22 (Intercept) -0.03 -0.05 0.00
19-22 RaceEthnicityAsian 0.02 0.00 0.05
19-22 RaceEthnicityBlack 0.06 0.03 0.09
19-22 RaceEthnicityHispanic 0.02 -0.01 0.05
19-22 Sexmale -0.10 -0.12 -0.08
19-22 SESIn college 0.03 0.00 0.05
19-22 SESUnemployed -0.02 -0.05 0.00
23-26 (Intercept) 0.09 0.06 0.12
23-26 RaceEthnicityAsian 0.00 -0.03 0.03
23-26 RaceEthnicityBlack 0.03 0.00 0.06
23-26 RaceEthnicityHispanic 0.03 0.00 0.07
23-26 Sexmale -0.05 -0.07 -0.03
23-26 SESIn college -0.01 -0.04 0.01
23-26 SESUnemployed -0.03 -0.06 -0.01
27-30 (Intercept) 0.10 0.07 0.13
27-30 RaceEthnicityAsian -0.03 -0.06 0.00
27-30 RaceEthnicityBlack -0.02 -0.05 0.01
27-30 RaceEthnicityHispanic 0.00 -0.03 0.03
27-30 Sexmale -0.03 -0.05 0.00
27-30 SESIn college -0.04 -0.06 -0.01
27-30 SESUnemployed -0.04 -0.07 -0.02