Introduction

Access to freshwater is extremely important as it is utilized in all aspects of society, from simply drinking it to the use of it in heavy industries (Ritchie & Roser, 2018). The MENA-region (Middle east and northern Africa) substantially diverge in the utilization of freshwater compared to most countries in the world. The entire region’s freshwater reservoirs are under high- to extremely high stress and is under goal 6.4.2 of the sustainable development goals. Goal 6.4.2 states Increase water use efficiency and ensure freshwater supplies, under target 6.4, “By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity and substantially reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity. Under goal 6, ensure access to water and sanitation for all (SDG-tracker, 2021). The UN agency in charge of the monitoring is the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO (UNstats 2022, p. 1-2).

The indicator provides an estimate of the pressure on a country’s renewable freshwater resources. A country with a low level of stress, means that the amount that is withdrawn is marginal in relation with the available resources. Therefore it has little potential impact on the sustainability of the resource. A high level is the reverse, with a potentially large impact on the sustainability of the resource, which may cause potential conflicts between users (UNstats 2022, p. 1-2).

The paper’s goal is to investigate why the MENA-region is particularly exposed and what is the factors affecting it. Data was retrieved from the world bank utilizing the wbstats library to garner the statistical information. Webpages with relevant information to make the papers contents more credible and informative.

My indicators

my_indicators <- c(
  Freshwater_Use = "ER.H2O.FWST.ZS", 
  gdp_capita ="NY.GDP.PCAP.CD", 
  pop = "SP.POP.TOTL")

my_indicator_rainfall = c(
    Freshwater_Use = "ER.H2O.FWST.ZS", rainfall = "AG.LND.PRCP.MM")

Data manipulation and filtration

ind <- wb_data(my_indicators) %>% 
  left_join(wb_countries() %>% select(-country), by="iso3c") %>% group_by(region)

The data is subsequently filtered to obtain the data for the MENA-region.To clarify the process, new data sets are created called ind2 and ind3. ind4, ind5 and ind6 was created to show to difference over time in the region of the worst affected countries. Thus, the two variables below were created to filter these countries in the main data. The ind_rainfall were created to get data about precipitation. Similar steps were taken in subsequent further down in the document.

Data for freshwater stress

ind1 = ind %>% group_by(region)

Next step is to filer out the NA data.

ind2 = ind1 %>% filter(!is.na(Freshwater_Use))
ind3 = ind2 %>% filter(!is.na(gdp_capita))

Afterwards is to filter the data for the selected countries in the region. Thus, the two values were created.

my_countries_africa = c("Libya","Egypt, Arab Rep.", "Tunisia", "Algeria") 
my_countries_asia = c("Kuwait", "United Arab Emirates", "Saudi Arabia") 
my_countries = c(my_countries_africa, my_countries_asia)

The data is then filtered with the previous values to narrow down the data range and to produce relevant statistics.

ind4 = ind3 %>% filter(country %in% my_countries_africa)
ind5 = ind3 %>% filter(country %in% my_countries_asia)
ind6 = ind3 %>% filter(country %in% my_countries)

Data for rainfall

A similar process is made for this data as the one above.

ind_rainfall = wb_data(my_indicator_rainfall) %>% 
  left_join(wb_countries() %>% select(-country), by="iso3c")
ind_rainfall1 = ind_rainfall %>% filter(!is.na(rainfall))

Data analysis

To easily see how freshwater is utilized through out the region, a map is required to visualize it. Firstly a world map that shows which countries and regions are affected the most.

However, the data on the map is similar for almost every country and that is because the minimum value and maximum value are enormously diverge. Where the outliers, the MENA-region has enormously higher values than other countries. Why is this? It will be investigated further.

Something to consider which would be interesting for another paper is that very low levels of water use of course indicate that the country has no problem with freshwater level stress. However, if the value is extremely low so may it that the country’s inability to use the resources to benefit its population (UNstats 2022, p. 4).

Secondly, a map specifically of the MENA-region was created. The reasoning behind this decision is that in the regular map of the world, the values had to be severely limited in order to get clear data. The gray countries, except Antarctica and Greenland has values that exceed the limited values. The worst affected countries in the MENA-region, with extremely high levels of fresh-water stress is: Libya, followed by Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria that all fall under a similar category. In Asia where the clear outlier is Kuwait, followed by the United Arab Emirate, and Saudi Arabia. in the second map, the values were not limited.

When comparing the two regions it is clear that the Asian part of the MENA-region has the most problems, as their fresh-water resources are utilized significantly more compared to most countries in the world. The countries in the Asian continent has the highest freshwater stress levels, significantly than their African counterparts. It is clear that both region have problems when it comes to availability and utilization of their fresh-water resources. Naturally, the next point of investigation would be to see how this has changed overtime in the region.

Change overtime in freshwater stress in MENA-regions most affected countries

To get more specific data and to narrow it down, only countries that are the worst affected have been decided on to conduct further studies. See the graphs below for further information:

The graphs clearly display that the levels of freshwater stress has increased significantly overtime in the worst affected countries. One of the causes may be the low precipitation levels in the regions, hence the The subsequent step is to compare to region to worldwide precipitation levels.

The data clearly display that the MENA-region among countries close to the countries have among the lowest rainfall level per year. Hence, the aforementioned hypothesis is correct, that the low level of precipitation is one of the reasons that the region’s freshwater stress levels are so elevated. The next step would be to see how the region has developed according to GDP/capita and population development. To make the data easily readable, the same countries will be examined again. Year 1997 and 2017 were chosen as they represent modern developments, and a 20 year time frame is reasonable. Year 2017 was chosen because it is before the COVID-19 pandemic, which would affect the data significantly.

Comparison between 1997 and 2017’s GDP/capita values in six of the countries %
Comparison between 1997 and 2017’s population values in six of the countries %

Assumptions that can be interpreted from the data

There has been significantly developments in both areas, except in gdp/capita for Libya, the only country breaking the trend. otherwise it can be noted that the economies has grown significantly for every country, with GDP/capita increasing immensely but of course enormous relative differences between the countries. The population data also display a similar increase, but for every country. That the countries has a steady population increase over 20 years. With the outlier being the United Arab Emirate and Kuwait, with immense increase over the same time period.

Conclusion

As what can be seen in the analysis, it is not solely one factor affecting the MENA-region but many as was hypothesized in the introductory part of this project. That there is no singular factor that be attributed to the issues of water stress levels in the region. As data clearly show, that there is a combination of multiple factors that contribute to their poor use of freshwater resources in region, especially in the middle eastern part.

Firstly, it is where the countries are located. The area is extremely dry and receives extremely little precipitation compared to most countries in the world. Which, of course means that they do not have good prospects from the beginning because of the natural conditions of the region.

Secondly, the economic development in most of the region puts immense pressures on local resources, where water is one of them. The countries do in all likelihood not desire economic stagnation, thus they will expand their efforts for economic development. Everything from new factories to produce commodities, to attracting tourists in order to earn more puts even more stress on the already limited water resources in the region.

Thirdly, the population increase, naturally utilizes more water resources since more people, consumes more water in their daily lives. This clearly correlates especially with the United Arab Emirates, but also with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. As when the population significantly, the fresh-water level stresses increase. Particularly when the population has more than doubled in 20 years in some of the countries.

Conclusively, the MENA-region water is under high-levels of stress, and it depends on many factors, where some where previously mentioned. The data used in this paper is sufficient, however more work is needed to be done. As there are many more factors that affect the countries, chiefly the one on the top of my head is climate change and how war has affected the region. Climate change, in combination with everything else will the MENA-region’s water resources more vulnerable than ever. If I had more time, this is the aspect that I would like to investigate, how climate change is and will affect the region. As for the foreseeable future, there’s no immediate reliefs, especially if the current trends continue, especially for the richest countries in the region. Who utilizes significantly more water resources than those with lesser economic resources.

References

  1. Ritchie, H & Roser, M. (2018). Water Use and Stress. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/water-use-stress (2022-04-23)

  2. SDG-tracker.org. (2021). Sustainable development goal 6 -Ensure access to water and sanitation for all. Retrieved from: https://sdg-tracker.org/water-and-sanitation (2022-04-20)

  3. UNstats. (2022). Indicator 6.4.2: Level of water stress: freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources. Retrieved from: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-06-04-02.pdf