This Notebook

These graphs explore the results presented in Benn, Christine Stabell and Schaltz-Buchholzer, Frederik and Nielsen, Sebastian and Netea, Mihai G. and Netea, Mihai G. and Aaby, Peter, Randomised Clinical Trials of COVID-19 Vaccines: Do Adenovirus-Vector Vaccines Have Beneficial Non-Specific Effects? (5 April 2022). The Lancet – preprint. Available at {https://ssrn.com/abstract=4072489} or {http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4072489}.

The study compares the Covid mRNA vaccines and their Adenovirus-vector counterparts for Beneficial Non-Specific Effects in regard to four categories of mortality:

  • Overall Mortality
  • Covid-19 Deaths
  • Cardiovascular Deaths
  • Other (non-accidental) Deaths

For Data Humanist, with commentary at the Substack American Exile. All graphs below, CC0 (Public Domain). The Github repo @ Stabell-Benn_et-alia.

Overview: All Four Categories

The graph below reproduce the same data in a different format than the Forest graph included in the study. Please also consult the original “Figure 1”.

Relative Risk CI (at 95% CL)

This graph shows the Relative Risk ratio Confidence Intervals for the mRNA vaccine versus the placebo, and the Adenovirus-vector vaccines versus placebo/control vaccine. Both at 95% Confidence Levels.

Data Set for All Graphs

The following chart reproduces from the report the key data used in all graphs for this notebook.

Overall Mortality

What stands out right away in the graph above: the results for the mRNA vaccine versus the placebo are NOT significant at the 95% Confidence Level.

Covid-19 Deaths

This result is highly disturbing. See commentaries by Martin Kulldorf (22 April 2022) and by Jay Bhattacharya (3 May 2022).

Cardiovascular Deaths

We do NOT have a statistically significant result showing the mRNA vaccine is associated undue cardiovascular deaths, but the trend is disturbing.

Non-Accidental, Non-Covid Deaths

This category strikes us as a loosely defined. But the results are similar: once again, the Adenovirus-vector vaccines have statistically signifcant results at the 95% CL, and the mRNA vaccines do NOT.

Kulldorff’s Summaries

In the comments below, Kulldorf (22 April 2022) is referring to overall mortality in the first two bullet points.

  • There is clear evidence that the adenovirus-vector vaccines reduced mortality.
  • For the mRNA vaccines, on the other hand, there was no evidence of a mortality reduction.
  • For the mRNA vaccines, there was a reduction in Covid deaths but an increase in cardiovascular deaths, but neither was statistically significant.
    • So, either result could be due to random chance.
    • Alternatively, the vaccines may reduce the risk for Covid deaths while increasing the risk for cardiovascular deaths.

See also Bhattacharya (3 May 2022), who in part following up on Kulldorf, calls attention to both the limits (acknowledged by Stabell-Benn, et alia) and the importance of this study.

Other & Code

The commentary by Data Humanist available at American Exile. The Github repo for this notebook @ Stabell-Benn_et-alia. Thank you for reading.