Marijuana Legalization in Wisconsin, 2013-2022

Author

Charles Franklin

Affilliation

Director, Marquette Law School Poll

Published

April 20, 2022

Trend in opinion of marijuana legalization

The Marquette Law School Poll has monitored opinion of marijuana legalization in Wisconsin since 2013. The survey question in most polls is

Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?

In July 2016 and August 2018 we asked a variant wording:

When it comes to marijuana, some people think that the drug should be fully legalized and regulated like alcohol. Do you agree or disagree with that view?

In January 2019 we did a split-sample test comparing the two wordings and found no difference in responses. See the Appendix for that comparison. Since that time we’ve used the original wording. In the analysis below the two question wordings are combined.

Opinion about the legalization of marijuana in Wisconsin has shifted from a close division with a slight majority opposed to legalization in 2013-2014 to a majority near 60% in favor of legalization in 2016 and since. The net of “legal” minus “illegal” has trend up slightly since 2016 with fewer saying “illegal” while “legal” has remained relatively stable.

Figure 1 (a) shows the trend in “legal” and “illegal” opinion and Figure 1 (b) shows the net of “legal” minus “illegal” views.

Table 1 shows the results each time the legalization question has been asked.

Table 1: Trend in legalization of marijuana opinion, 2012-2022, MULawPoll
Poll date Net Legal Illegal Don't know Refused n
2013-10-24 5 50 45 5 1 400
2014-03-23 -10 42 52 6 0 801
2014-09-14 -5 46 51 2 0 800
2016-07-10 20 59 39 1 0 801
2018-08-19 25 61 36 3 0 411
2019-01-20 23 58 35 6 0 800
2019-04-07 23 59 36 4 1 404
2022-02-27 30 61 31 7 0 403

Change in opinion by groups

In the figures and tables that follow I divide the data into “early” polling in 2013-14 and “late” polling from 2016-22. Figure 1 (a) above shows that these two periods differ in support for legalization, while within each period support has been relatively stable. By pooling polls within these periods we can increase the number of cases for use in crosstabs, reducing the noise present in crosstabs for individual polls.

Party identification

Figure 2 shows how net support for legalization has shifted by party identification. All party groups have become more supportive, with Republicans the only partisan group with net opposition to legalization of marijuana.

Table 2: Trend in legalization of marijuana opinion by party identification, 2012-2022, MULawPoll
Party ID Poll Years Net Legal Illegal Don't know Refused n
Rep 2013-14 -36 30 66 3 0 522
Rep 2016-22 -15 41 56 3 0 795
Lean Rep 2013-14 -19 38 57 5 0 332
Lean Rep 2016-22 12 54 42 4 0 441
Ind 2013-14 -10 42 52 5 1 171
Ind 2016-22 29 61 32 6 1 283
Lean Dem 2013-14 23 60 37 3 1 362
Lean Dem 2016-22 55 75 20 5 0 462
Dem 2013-14 16 55 39 5 0 583
Dem 2016-22 49 72 23 4 0 809

Age

Figure 3 shows how net support for legalization has shifted by age.

Table 3 shows the shifts by age across pooling periods.

Table 3: Trend in legalization of marijuana opinion by age, 2012-2022, MULawPoll
Age Poll Years Net Legal Illegal Don't know Refused n
18-29 2013-14 27 63 36 1 0 320
18-29 2016-22 56 77 21 2 1 391
30-39 2013-14 27 60 33 7 0 265
30-39 2016-22 52 75 23 2 0 435
40-49 2013-14 -1 48 49 3 0 343
40-49 2016-22 34 65 31 4 0 393
50-59 2013-14 -9 43 52 4 0 455
50-59 2016-22 14 55 41 3 0 639
60-69 2013-14 -21 36 57 6 1 304
60-69 2016-22 13 54 41 5 0 481
70+ 2013-14 -48 23 71 5 1 301
70+ 2016-22 -14 39 53 7 0 448

Education

Figure 4 shows how net support for legalization has shifted by education. For all levels of education, support for legalization increased from 2013-14 to 2016-22.

The jumble of lines in the 2016-22 period shows that education has less effect of legalization support in recent years than it did in 2013-14. In both periods, there is not a monotonic relationship, with a large gap between those with less than a high school diploma and those who graduated high school, and somewhat less support among those with a BA or higher than for those with an AA or some college.

Table 4 shows the shifts by education across pooling periods.

Table 4: Trend in legalization of marijuana opinion by education, 2012-2022, MULawPoll
Education Poll Years Net Legal Illegal Don't know Refused n
Not HS 2013-14 21 60 39 1 0 111
Not HS 2016-22 35 67 32 1 0 86
High school 2013-14 -23 36 59 5 0 598
High school 2016-22 19 57 38 5 0 822
Some college 2013-14 9 52 43 4 1 397
Some college 2016-22 28 62 34 4 0 533
AA 2013-14 -18 40 58 2 0 258
AA 2016-22 30 63 33 4 0 380
BA 2013-14 3 49 46 4 1 339
BA 2016-22 23 59 36 4 1 631
Post-BA 2013-14 5 49 44 7 1 293
Post-BA 2016-22 21 58 37 4 0 342

Region of the state

Figure 5 shows how net support for legalization has shifted by region. For all regions, support for legalization increased from 2013-14 to 2016-22.

Table 5 shows the shifts by region across pooling periods.

Table 5: Trend in legalization of marijuana opinion by region, 2012-2022, MULawPoll
Region Poll Years Net Legal Illegal Don't know Refused n
MKE City 2013-14 15 56 41 1 1 186
MKE City 2016-22 38 68 30 2 0 222
Rest of MKE 2013-14 -15 40 55 4 1 633
Rest of MKE 2016-22 18 57 39 4 0 933
MSN 2013-14 20 58 38 4 0 344
MSN 2016-22 37 66 29 5 0 507
GB/A 2013-14 -13 41 54 5 0 369
GB/A 2016-22 17 57 40 3 0 525
Rest of state 2013-14 -11 42 53 5 0 469
Rest of state 2016-22 22 58 36 6 0 632

Frequency of church attendance

Figure 6 shows how net support for legalization has shifted by frequency of church attendance. There is a clear gradient across frequency of attendance while all attendance groups have increased support for legalization over time.

Note the y-axis scale is expanded for this chart to include some groups with larger percentages in favor of legalization.

Table 6 shows the shifts by frequency of church attendance across pooling periods.

Table 6: Trend in legalization of marijuana opinion by church attendance, 2012-2022, MULawPoll
Attendance Poll Years Net Legal Illegal Don't know Refused n
Weekly 2013-14 -37 29 66 5 0 681
Weekly 2016-22 -19 38 57 5 0 867
1-2/month 2013-14 -20 38 58 3 1 323
1-2/month 2016-22 16 56 40 4 0 429
Few times/year 2013-14 9 52 43 5 0 404
Few times/year 2016-22 39 67 28 5 0 523
Seldom 2013-14 19 57 38 4 1 307
Seldom 2016-22 52 74 22 4 0 481
Never 2013-14 41 69 28 3 0 262
Never 2016-22 65 81 16 3 0 485

Religious identification

Figure 7 shows how net support for legalization has shifted by religious identification. Notably born again protestants are the only group in all these comparisons with a decline in support for legalization. And those with no religion have the highest net support for legalization of all groups considered here.

Note the y-axis scale is expanded for this chart to include some groups with larger percentages in favor of legalization.

Table 7 shows the shifts by religious identification across pooling periods.

Table 7: Trend in legalization of marijuana opinion by religious identification, 2012-2022, MULawPoll
Religion Poll Years Net Legal Illegal Don't know Refused n
Born again Protestant 2013-14 -1 46 47 6 0 74
Born again Protestant 2016-22 -8 45 53 2 0 474
Mainline Protestant 2013-14 -3 45 48 5 1 124
Mainline Protestant 2016-22 23 59 36 5 1 774
Roman Catholic 2013-14 -9 44 53 2 0 117
Roman Catholic 2016-22 13 54 41 6 0 816
No religion 2013-14 53 73 20 7 1 51
No religion 2016-22 72 85 13 2 0 442
Other religion 2013-14 22 58 36 6 0 28
Other religion 2016-22 37 67 30 3 0 207

Appendix

Question wording varied in July 2016 and Aug. 2018 polls. In January 2019 we randomly divided the sample between the two wordings and found no difference in responses. Since Jan. 2019 we have asked the original question wording.

Original wording:

Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?

Variant wording:

When it comes to marijuana, some people think that the drug should be fully legalized and regulated like alcohol. Do you agree or disagree with that view?

Table 8 shows the comparison of the two wordings in January 2019.

Table 8: Test of wording effects on legalization, Jan. 2019
Wording test Legal Illegal Don't know Refused n
Original 59 35 7 0 399
Variant 58 36 6 0 401