The present model uses data from January 4th, 2021 to July 18th 2021. It was trained on data up to July 1st, and it’s performance was evaluated on the remaining data. The results below show how this model compares to both DRO predictions and the Actual recorded values for Volume. This model predicts 17 days into the future.

 
 

Prediction Comparisons
Date Day Actual DRO MyPreds DRO_Diff MyDiff
2021-07-02 Friday 2614 3011 2716 -397 -102
2021-07-03 Saturday 2133 2545 2039 -412 94
2021-07-04 Sunday 1365 NA 1338 NA 27
2021-07-05 Monday 1576 2751 1821 -1175 -245
2021-07-06 Tuesday 2639 2547 2326 92 313
2021-07-07 Wednesday 2643 2710 2907 -67 -264
2021-07-08 Thursday 2646 2986 2759 -340 -113
2021-07-09 Friday 2806 3148 2702 -342 104
2021-07-10 Saturday 1954 2647 2029 -693 -75
2021-07-11 Sunday 1027 1746 1332 -719 -305
2021-07-12 Monday 2009 2408 1813 -399 196
2021-07-13 Tuesday 2377 2506 2317 -129 60
2021-07-14 Wednesday 3202 3667 2895 -465 307
2021-07-15 Thursday 2825 3194 2748 -369 77
2021-07-16 Friday 2668 3178 2692 -510 -24
2021-07-17 Saturday 2051 2524 2023 -473 28
2021-07-18 Sunday 1108 1675 1327 -567 -219
Note:
The colored values represent better/worse performance compared to DRO predictions.

 
 
 
 

 
 

[1] 7584
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
-1175.0  -510.0  -412.0  -435.3  -342.0    92.0

Within the given time-frame, the total difference between DRO Predictions with the Actual volume is 7,584. The plot above shows that DRO predictions tend to be higher than the Actual volume, with DRO having only one prediction that falls below the actual Volume. A majority of DRO predictions fall between ~350-510 values above the actual Volume.

 
 
 

[1] 2553
    Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
-305.000 -113.000   27.000   -8.294   94.000  313.000

Within the same time-frame, the total difference between My Predictions with the Actual Volume is 2,553. The sum of differences being lower suggests more accurate predictions. The above plot shows that my predictions fluctuate equally in both directions, with the maximum fluctuations being roughly 310 values either below or above the actual Volume. A majority of my predictions fall between 100 values above, to 100 values below the actual volume.

 
 
 
 

Accuracy Scores (in percentages)

DRO Prediction Accuracy

[1] 79.852

My Prediction Accuracy

[1] 93.21786

Accuracy Improvement

[1] 13.36586

 

This model increases prediction accuracy by 13.37%.