Progress Update 2 - Final Project

DACSS 695: Public Opinion in Politics - all of the data I am planning to work with

Megan Georges
2022-04-08

Introduction

The overarching topic of this research is public opinion surrounding the criminal justice system. Specifically, the research focuses on the public’s faith in the system and overall perception of the efficacy of the system. Additionally, the research investigates public opinion on rehabilitative programs and incarceration/recidivism reduction initiatives, as well as how opinion on crime, mental health, and substance abuse vary by subject matter (local vs national, ‘criminal’ vs ‘non-criminal’).

This research could be relevant to politicians and policymakers interested in the nature of public opinion regarding the criminal justice. Information within this research could help these professionals gauge support for new crime bills and policy proposals related to the justice system and rehabilitative initiatives.


Data

Gallup: Confidence in Institutions

Gallup performs the “Gallup Poll Social Series (GPSS)”, which looks at long-term trends on key social topics in the United States. The interviews are performed on U.S. adults (18+) via telephone (landline and cellphone) across all states. To perform this survey, Gallup purchases data on U.S. phone numbers and uses a “random-digit-dial” method to select its samples. Sample size is set to at least 1,000 per year per subject. Sampling for the Crime GPSS survey is performed every October. “Gallup weights samples to correct for unequal selection probability, nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cellphone users in the two sampling frames. Gallup also weights its final samples to match the U.S. population according to gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only, landline only, both, and cellphone mostly).” Source

Gallup News Service performed a survey in 2020 on 1,226 US adults via telephone. The survey asked respondents how much confidence they have in each of the listed institutions in American society (including Supreme Court, public schools, television news, banks, etc.). The two institutions from the survey that I plan to look at are police and the criminal justice system. The survey used a likert scale to gauge confidence (great deal, quite a lot, some, very little, no opinion).

“Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some or very little? The criminal justice system”

Table 1: Level of Confidence in the Criminal Justice System
Year Great Deal (%) Quite a Lot (%) Some (%) Very Little (%) No Opinion (%) Declined Response (%)
2021 7 13 38 39 <0.5 3
2020 10 14 40 33 <0.5 3
2019 10 14 40 34 1 2
2018 9 13 41 34 1 2
2017 14 13 37 32 1 2
2016 9 14 40 34 <0.5 2
2015 9 14 42 31 1 3
2014 10 13 40 32 1 4
2013 10 18 40 30 1 2
2012 11 18 41 26 1 3
2011 13 15 42 27 1 2
2010 9 18 44 24 1 3
2009 11 17 44 25 1 2
2008 8 12 44 32 2 2
2007 7 12 44 33 1 2
2006 9 16 43 28 1 3
2005 9 17 45 26 1 2
2004 10 24 42 22 1 1
2003 10 19 45 25 <0.5 1
2002 9 18 46 24 1 2
2000 8 16 42 30 1 3
1999 8 15 40 34 <0.5 3
1998 9 15 40 32 1 3
1997 8 11 40 35 1 5
1996 6 13 38 38 1 4
1995 9 11 37 37 1 5
1994 6 9 35 44 1 5
1993 6 11 38 39 2 4

“Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some or very little? The police”

Table 2: Level of Confidence in the Police
Year Great Deal (%) Quite a Lot (%) Some (%) Very Little (%) No Opinion (%) Declined Response (%)
2021 26 25 32 16 <0.5 1
2020 23 25 33 17 <0.5 2
2019 29 24 31 16 <0.5 1
2018 29 25 31 14 1 1
2017 31 26 28 14 1 1
2016 25 31 29 13 1 1
2015 25 27 30 16 1 2
2014 25 28 31 14 <0.5 2
2013 26 31 30 12 1 1
2012 26 30 28 15 <0.5 1
2011 25 31 30 11 <0.5 2
2010 26 33 27 12 1 1
2009 28 31 29 10 <0.5 1
2008 28 30 30 10 1 1
2007 23 31 33 12 1 1
2006 25 33 29 10 1 2
2005 28 35 29 7 1
2004 24 40 26 10 <0.5
2003 29 32 29 9 <0.5 1
2002 28 31 31 9 <0.5 1
2001 26 31 31 11 <0.5 1
2000 18 36 33 10 1 2
1999 24 33 33 10 1
1998 26 32 30 10 1 1
1997 27 32 30 10 <0.5 1
1996 22 38 28 11 <0.5 1
1995 26 32 30 10 1 1
1994 22 32 33 11 1 1
1993 22 30 35 11 1 1

Gallup: Opinions on Crime and Justice

Question: “In general, do you think the criminal justice system in this country is too tough, not tough enough or about right in its handling of crime?”

Table 3: Opinion on the Toughness of the Criminal Justice System
Year Too Tough (%) Not Tough Enough (%) About Right (%) No Opinion (%)
2020 21 41 35 3
2016 14 45 35 6
2003 6 65 26 3
2000 3 70 22 5
1992 2 83 12 3

Gallup: Approaches to Lowering Crime Rates

Question: “Which of the following approaches to lowering the crime rate in the United States comes closer to your own view – do you think [ROTATED: more money and effort should go to attacking the social and economic problems that lead to crime through better education and job training (or) more money and effort should go to deterring crime by improving law enforcement with more prisons, police and judges]?”

Table 4: Approaches to Lowering Crime Rate
Year Attack Social Problems (%) More Law Enforcement (%) No Opinion (%)
2020 63 34 2
2010 64 32 4
2006 65 31 4
2003 69 29 2
2000 68 27 5
1994 51 42 7
1992 67 25 8
1990 57 36 2

ACLU: Campaign for Smart Justice National Survey

This survey was conducted with Benenson Strategy Group in October 2017 on a random sample of 1,000 U.S. adults.

Would you say that the criminal justice system in the United States…. Percentage
Has serious problems that need to be addressed immediately 55
Has some problems that need to be addressed eventually 36
Is working well 7
Don’t know 1
In your opinion, how important is it to reduce the number of people who are in prison in America today? Percentage
Very important 38
Somewhat important 33
Not very important 9
Not important at all 16
Don’t know 4
In your view, would making reforms that reduce the prison population… Percentage
Harm communities because people who belong behind bars will be let out 34
Help communities by saving taxpayer dollars that can be reinvested into preventing crime and rehabilitating people convicted of crimes 59
Don’t Know 7
If you knew that making reforms that reduce the prison population would mean shortening prison sentences for certain people convicted of crimes, do you think it would… Percentage
Harm communities because people who belong behind bars will be let out 39
Help communities by saving taxpayer dollars that can be reinvested into preventing crime and rehabilitating people convicted of crimes 51
Don’t Know 10
If you knew that making reforms that reduce the prison population would mean sending some people convicted of crimes to rehabilitation programs to help them cope with mental illness or addictions instead of sending them to prisons, do you think it would… Percentage
Harm communities because people who belong behind bars will be let out 23
Help communities by saving taxpayer dollars that can be reinvested into preventing crime and rehabilitating people convicted of crimes 73
Don’t Know 4
Which statement do you agree with more? Percentage
Some people say people who have committed serious crimes are unlikely to change and will almost always be a danger to society. 32
Other people say people who have committed serious crimes can turn their lives around and live productive responsible lives with the right kind of help. 62
Don’t Know 6
Which statement do you agree with more? Percentage
Some people say people who have committed violent crimes are unlikely to change and will almost always be a danger to society. 35
Other people say people who have committed violent crimes can turn their lives around and live productive responsible lives with the right kind of help. 61
Don’t Know 4
Which of the following would do more to prevent people convicted of crimes from committing further offenses once they’re released from prison? Percentage
Making prison as hard and unpleasant as possible so they are afraid of going back 25
Providing rehabilitation services and training so they can re-enter society and be productive citizens 72
Don’t Know 3
Table 5: ACLU: Attitudes Toward Various Topics of the Criminal Justice System
Question Strongly Agree (%) Somewhat Agree (%) Somewhat Disagree (%) Strongly Disagree (%) Dont Know (%)
Q20. People with mental health disabilities don’t belong in prison, they belong in mental health programs where they can get the treatment they need from professionals. (n=332) 65 19 9 4 4
Q21. Even if people with mental health disabilities commit serious crimes, communities will be safer if they’re sent to mental health programs where they can get the treatment they need from professionals. (n=339) 59 30 2 6 2
Q22. Even if people with mental health disabilities commit crimes that involve violence, communities will be safer if they’re sent to mental health programs where they can get the treatment they need from professionals. (n=332) 47 40 9 4 0
Q17. People with drug addictions don’t belong in prison, they should be in rehabilitation programs where they can recover from their addiction. (n=233) 49 27 11 11 2
Q16. People with drug addictions don’t belong in prison, they should be in rehabilitation programs where they can get the treatment they need and recover from their addiction. (n=263) 49 25 12 12 2
Q19. Even if people with drug addictions have committed serious crimes, communities will be safer if they’re sent to drug rehabilitation programs where they can get the treatment they need and recover from their addiction. (n=258) 37 44 13 5 1
Q18. Even if they’ve committed serious crimes, people with drug addictions don’t belong in prison, they should be in rehabilitation programs where they can get the treatment they need and recover from their addiction. (n=249) 36 25 17 21 2
Q29. Sending people with drug addictions to prison for a long sentence, instead of drug rehab, can make a community less safe because we’re not addressing the root cause of their crime and they’re hardened by the experience and come out likely to commit more serious crimes. (n=258) 45 30 15 9 2
Q26. Sending someone to prison for a long sentence increases the chances that he or she will commit another crime when they get out, because prison doesn’t do a good job of rehabilitating problems like drug addiction and mental illness. (n=263) 40 31 14 10 4
Q28. Sending people to prison for a long sentence can make a community less safe because people are hardened by the experience. (n=249) 15 36 27 20 3
Q27. Sending someone to prison for a long sentence increases the chances that he or she will commit another crime when they get out, because they’re likely to be hardened by the experience and come out likely to commit more serious crimes. (n=233) 17 24 33 18 8
Q30. It’s a waste of taxpayer dollars and criminal justice resources to keep people locked up who no longer pose a threat to public safety. (n=263) 44 35 9 10 2
Q33. It’s a waste of taxpayer dollars and criminal justice resources to keep people locked up who have taken responsibility for their behavior, rehabilitated themselves and could be playing a productive role in communities. (n=258) 35 40 18 7 1
Q31. It’s a waste of taxpayer dollars and criminal justice resources to keep people locked up who are older and no longer pose a threat to public safety. (n=233) 25 32 24 17 2
Q32. It’s a waste of taxpayer dollars and criminal justice resources to keep people locked up who have grown out of the age when they’re most likely to commit crimes and no longer pose a threat to public safety. (n=249) 17 44 20 13 7
Q24. People of color are incarcerated at higher rates than white Americans because of racism in policing, prosecution, and sentencing. (n=249) 35 19 11 31 3
Q25. People of color are incarcerated at higher rates than white Americans because of bias in policing, prosecution, and sentencing. (n=258) 31 22 20 25 3
Q23. Black people are treated fairly by the criminal justice system. (n=233) 16 18 25 37 4
Q34. Our criminal justice system needs to be rooted in our values and our faith and preserve the principle that no one is beyond the possibility of repentance, forgiveness, and redemption. (n=1003) 32 36 18 10 4
Q35. Offering prisoners benefits like free education is disrespectful to victims of crime who might still be suffering. (n=1003) 16 23 30 28 3
Q36. The vast majority of people convicted of crimes will never change and it’s not worth the time and money we spend to try to rehabilitate them. (n=1003) 11 12 35 41 2

Impact on Vote:

Question: “Now I’m going to read you some suggestions that some people have made for how to reform the criminal justice system. After each one, please tell me whether you would be more or less likely to vote for one of your elected officials if he or she supported this idea. If one of your elected officials were to support this idea, would you be…”

Table 6: ACLU: How Prison Reform/Attitudes will Influence Voting
Question Much More Likely (%) Somewhat More Likely (%) Somewhat Less Likely (%) Much Less Likely (%) No Impact (%) Dont Know (%)
Q40. Reduce the prison population and use the cost savings to reinvest in drug treatment and mental health programs. (n=339) 41 27 11 15 4 2
Q39. Reduce the prison population and use the cost savings to reinvest in community programs that have been shown to prevent crime. (n=332) 39 35 13 9 2 2
Q37. More funding for drug treatment programs to rehabilitate people who have committed a crime. (n=496) 37 37 10 11 3 3
Q46. Eliminate mandatory sentences that take discretion away from judges so that judges can issue a sentence that is appropriate to each crime. (n=496) 37 35 12 10 4 2
Q38. More funding for mental health programs to rehabilitate people who have committed a crime. (n=507) 36 38 16 6 3 2
Q41. Reduce sentences and use the cost savings to reinvest in community programs that have been shown to prevent crime. (n=332) 35 39 15 8 3 1
Q49. Repeal the requirement that people sentenced to prison serve at least 85 percent of their time behind bars before being eligible for release, and allow them to earn earlier transitions to community-based supervision if they accept responsibility, make amends for their crime, and participate in rehabilitation programs. (n=339) 35 35 8 12 6 3
Q45. Expand the options for early release to incarcerated people who can show they have been rehabilitated through drug treatment or mental health services. (n=507) 34 44 12 3 5 2
Q43. Reduce the prison population by diverting offenders into proven rehabilitation programs that address the root causes of violent behavior. (n=507) 33 35 16 11 4 2
Q47. Eliminate mandatory sentences and return to allowing judges to decide sentences, on a case-by-case basis. (n=507) 32 36 14 12 4 1
Q50. Repeal the requirement that people sentenced to prison serve at least 85 percent of their time behind bars before being eligible for release, and allow them to earn earlier opportunities to return home to their families if they accept responsibility, make amends for their crime, and participate in rehabilitation programs. (n=332) 27 45 14 10 3 2
Q48. Allow parole boards to use their discretion to decide which people in prison need to serve the maximum possible length of their sentences and who can be released if they are no longer a danger to society. (n=332) 25 47 11 8 7 3
Q44. Allow more incarcerated people, even those convicted of serious crimes who show they can be rehabilitated, to be eligible for reduced sentences for completing drug treatment, rehabilitation, education, or job training programs. (n=496) 24 43 15 14 3 1
Q42. Reduce the prison population by increasing the use of restitution such as financial compensation to victims, instead of prison terms. (n=496) 9 25 24 32 5 4

NAMI/Ipsos: Public Opinion on Criminal Justice, Police, Mental Health, Substance Abuse Services

How informed are people on the topic?

Question: “(How familiar are you with the following in the United States?…Very familiar, somewhat familiar, not very familiar, I have heard of this, but that’s it)…”

Table 7: How familiar are you with the Mental Health Care System in the United States?
Response Percentage
Very familiar 12
Somewhat familiar 38
Not very familiar 41
I have heard of this, but that’s it 9
Skipped 1
Table 8: How familiar are you with the Criminal Justice System in the United States?
Response Percentage
Very familiar 14
Somewhat familiar 51
Not very familiar 28
I have heard of this, but that’s it 6
Skipped 1
Table 9: How familiar are you with Alcohol or Drug Treatment Programs in the United States?
Response Percentage
Very familiar 9
Somewhat familiar 36
Not very familiar 41
I have heard of this, but that’s it 14
Skipped 1
Table 10: How familiar are you with Law Enforcement in your community?
Response Percentage
Very familiar 20
Somewhat familiar 52
Not very familiar 23
I have heard of this, but that’s it 4
Skipped 1

Do people have a favorable or unfavorable view of the topic?

Question: “(Consider the current state of the following in the United States. Do you have a favorable, or unfavorable view of the following?…Very favorable, somewhat favorable, lean favorable, lean unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable)…”

Table 11: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the Law Enforcement in your community?
Response Percentage
Very favorable 22
Somewhat favorable 24
Lean favorable 27
Lean unfavorable 13
Somewhat unfavorable 8
Very unfavorable 6
Skipped 1
Table 12: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the Criminal Justice System in the United States?
Response Percentage
Very favorable 7
Somewhat favorable 18
Lean favorable 24
Lean unfavorable 22
Somewhat unfavorable 16
Very unfavorable 13
Skipped 1
Table 13: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the Alcohol or Drug Treatment Programs in the United States?
Response Percentage
Very favorable 6
Somewhat favorable 22
Lean favorable 37
Lean unfavorable 18
Somewhat unfavorable 10
Very unfavorable 5
Skipped 1
Table 14: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the Mental Health Care System in the United States?
Response Percentage
Very favorable 5
Somewhat favorable 15
Lean favorable 28
Lean unfavorable 24
Somewhat unfavorable 18
Very unfavorable 9
Skipped 1

How concerned are people with the issue?

Question: “(How concerned are you, if at all, about the following issues?…Very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, not at all concerned)…”

Table 15: How concerned are you, if at all, with the stigma around mental health?
Response Percentage
Very concerned 20
Somewhat concerned 40
Not very concerned 26
Not at all concerned 13
Skipped 1
Table 16: How concerned are you, if at all, with alcohol or drug addiction?
Response Percentage
Very concerned 17
Somewhat concerned 39
Not very concerned 24
Not at all concerned 19
Skipped 1
Table 17: How concerned are you, if at all, with racial injustice?
Response Percentage
Very concerned 29
Somewhat concerned 33
Not very concerned 19
Not at all concerned 17
Skipped 1

How much improvement people feel is needed (national vs local level)

Question: “Consider the following emergency situations. How much improvement, if any, is needed at the national level when it comes to the following emergency responses?…Significant improvement is needed, slight improvement is needed, not a lot of improvement is needed, there is no need for improvement…”

Table 18: How much improvement, if any, is needed when it comes to the following emergency responses: a violent crime?
Response On a National Level In your State/Area
Significant improvement is needed 59 44
Slight improvement is needed 22 29
Not a lot of improvement is needed 6 12
There is no need for improvement 3 2
Don’t know 9 12
Skipped 1 1
Table 19: How much improvement, if any, is needed when it comes to the following emergency responses: a drug or alcohol crisis?
Response On a National Level In your State/Area
Significant improvement is needed 46 38
Slight improvement is needed 28 31
Not a lot of improvement is needed 9 12
There is no need for improvement 4 2
Don’t know 13 15
Skipped 1 1
Table 20: How much improvement, if any, is needed when it comes to the following emergency responses: a meantal health or suicide crisis?
Response On a National Level In your State/Area
Significant improvement is needed 54 44
Slight improvement is needed 22 27
Not a lot of improvement is needed 7 10
There is no need for improvement 4 3
Don’t know 12 16
Skipped 1 1
Table 21: How well, if at all, do you think the following groups typically handle responding to mental health, alcohol/drug, or suicide crises?
Response Police Paramedics/EMTs Mental Health Professionals CJ System (Judges, Prosecutors, Jail/Prison Admin.)
Very well 9 24 38 4
Somewhat well 36 58 49 25
Not very well 32 13 9 46
Not well at all 21 3 3 23
Skipped 2 2 2 2

Who should be the first responder to a mental health crisis

Which statement comes closest to your opinion, even if neither is exactly right?…When someone is having a mental health or suicide crisis, mental health professionals should be the primary first responders, when someone is having a mental health or suicide crisis, police should be the primary first responders

Table 22: When someone is having a mental health or suicide crisis, who should be the primary first responders?
Response Percentage
Mental Health Professionals 79
Police 19
Skipped 2

Sources: