MWCCOG Forecast Charts

Chart by Membership

Member Jurisdiction

Modeled Region Only

Row

Employment

Households

Population

Forecast Peer Region Charts

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Maryland Forecast by Region by Vintage

Weldon Cooper by MWCOG County by Vintage

Average Annual Growth Tables

Row

MWCOG Tier - Population

tier IHS v. Feb. 2022 IHS v. June 2015 Rd. 9.1 Rd. 9.2
Central Jurisdictions 0.39% 0.26% 1.31% 1.25%
Inner Suburbs 0.34% 0.26% 0.60% 0.61%
Modeled Region Only 0.63% 0.94% 0.83% 0.92%
Outer Suburbs 1.47% 2.27% 1.17% 1.09%

MWCOG Tier - Households

tier IHS v. Feb. 2022 IHS v. June 2015 Rd. 9.1 Rd. 9.2
Central Jurisdictions 0.74% 0.56% 1.14% 1.15%
Inner Suburbs 0.72% 0.59% 0.74% 0.75%
Modeled Region Only 1.08% 1.35% 0.98% 1.08%
Outer Suburbs 1.89% 2.77% 1.32% 1.25%

MWCOG Tier - Employment

tier IHS v. Feb. 2022 IHS v. June 2015 Rd. 9.1 Rd. 9.2
Central Jurisdictions 0.56% 0.58% 0.95% 0.94%
Inner Suburbs 0.57% 0.65% 0.90% 0.90%
Modeled Region Only 0.70% 1.20% 1.01% 1.05%
Outer Suburbs 1.46% 2.58% 1.46% 1.60%

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MWCOG Tier - Population

member IHS v. Feb. 2022 IHS v. June 2015 Rd. 9.1 Rd. 9.2
Member Jurisdiction 0.65% 0.81% 0.88% 0.85%
Modeled Region Only 0.63% 0.94% 0.83% 0.92%

MWCOG Tier - Households

member IHS v. Feb. 2022 IHS v. June 2015 Rd. 9.1 Rd. 9.2
Member Jurisdiction 1.01% 1.13% 0.96% 0.95%
Modeled Region Only 1.08% 1.35% 0.98% 1.08%

MWCOG Tier - Employment

member IHS v. Feb. 2022 IHS v. June 2015 Rd. 9.1 Rd. 9.2
Member Jurisdiction 0.72% 0.98% 1.01% 1.03%
Modeled Region Only 0.70% 1.20% 1.01% 1.05%

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Maryland Planning Average Annual Growth by Vintage

region Maryland 2014 Maryland 2018 Maryland 2020
Baltimore Region 0.38% 0.34% 0.31%
Lower Eastern Shore Region 0.76% 0.75% 0.67%
Southern Maryland Region 1.21% 1.10% 0.93%
State of Maryland 0.55% 0.51% 0.47%
Upper Eastern Shore Region 1.03% 0.94% 0.80%
Washington Suburban Region 0.57% 0.54% 0.52%
Western Maryland Region 0.68% 0.64% 0.49%

Weldon Cooper Average Annual Growth by Vintage

county weldon_cooper_17 weldon_cooper_21 difference
Alexandria city 0.95% 0.84% -0.12%
Fairfax city 0.32% 0.46% 0.13%
Fairfax County 0.72% 0.61% -0.11%
Falls Church city 1.32% 1.21% -0.11%
Fauquier County 0.99% 0.90% -0.09%
Fredericksburg city 1.45% 1.38% -0.07%
King George County 1.71% 1.54% -0.17%
Manassas city 0.76% 0.65% -0.11%
Manassas Park city 1.77% 1.64% -0.13%
Montgomery County 0.76% 0.64% -0.13%
Prince George County 0.54% 0.40% -0.14%
Prince William County 1.88% 1.72% -0.16%
Spotsylvania County 1.60% 1.41% -0.18%
Stafford County 1.77% 1.66% -0.11%

MWCOG Employment Makeup by Forecast Vintage

Row

Average Annual Growth by Tier by Employment Type by IHS Vintage

tier type ihs_ver_2015 ihs_ver_2022 chg_to_2022
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Construction, Natural Resources, and Mining (Thous.) 2.09% 2.07% -0.03%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Educational & Health Svcs (Thous.) 0.21% 0.79% 0.58%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Federal Government (Thous.) -0.40% 0.03% 0.44%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Financial Activities (Thous.) 0.08% 0.05% -0.03%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Government (Thous.) -0.30% 0.06% 0.36%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Information (Thous.) 1.30% 0.47% -0.83%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Leisure & Hospitality (Thous.) -0.04% 4.06% 4.10%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Manufacturing (Thous.) -1.64% -0.44% 1.20%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Non-Manufacturing 0.53% 0.89% 0.36%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Other Services (Thous.) -0.06% 1.06% 1.11%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Professional & Business Svcs (Thous.) 1.83% 1.29% -0.54%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Service Providing Private (Thous.) 0.75% 1.19% 0.44%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), State & Local Government (Thous.) 0.08% 0.17% 0.09%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Total Nonfarm (Thous.) 0.52% 0.89% 0.36%
Central Jurisdictions Employment (NAICS), Transp., Trade, & Utilities (Thous.) -0.69% -0.01% 0.68%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Construction, Natural Resources, and Mining (Thous.) 0.92% 1.51% 0.59%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Educational & Health Svcs (Thous.) 0.23% 1.15% 0.92%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Federal Government (Thous.) -0.46% -0.01% 0.45%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Financial Activities (Thous.) -0.10% 0.05% 0.15%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Government (Thous.) 0.08% 0.45% 0.37%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Information (Thous.) 1.01% 0.36% -0.65%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Leisure & Hospitality (Thous.) -0.09% 2.43% 2.53%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Manufacturing (Thous.) -1.00% -0.37% 0.63%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Non-Manufacturing 0.54% 0.88% 0.34%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Other Services (Thous.) 0.12% 1.54% 1.43%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Professional & Business Svcs (Thous.) 1.59% 1.15% -0.43%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Service Providing Private (Thous.) 0.61% 0.94% 0.32%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), State & Local Government (Thous.) 0.34% 0.72% 0.38%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Total Nonfarm (Thous.) 0.52% 0.86% 0.34%
Inner Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Transp., Trade, & Utilities (Thous.) -0.61% -0.26% 0.35%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Construction, Natural Resources, and Mining (Thous.) 0.71% 0.31% -0.40%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Educational & Health Svcs (Thous.) 1.34% 1.34% 0.00%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Federal Government (Thous.) -0.19% 0.23% 0.42%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Financial Activities (Thous.) 0.94% 0.35% -0.58%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Government (Thous.) 0.96% 0.66% -0.30%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Information (Thous.) 2.08% 0.59% -1.49%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Leisure & Hospitality (Thous.) 0.72% 2.58% 1.86%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Manufacturing (Thous.) -0.58% -0.51% 0.07%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Non-Manufacturing 1.12% 1.02% -0.10%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Other Services (Thous.) 0.79% 1.82% 1.03%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Professional & Business Svcs (Thous.) 2.25% 1.53% -0.72%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Service Providing Private (Thous.) 1.19% 1.17% -0.02%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), State & Local Government (Thous.) 1.26% 0.83% -0.44%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Total Nonfarm (Thous.) 1.07% 0.96% -0.11%
Modeled Region Only Employment (NAICS), Transp., Trade, & Utilities (Thous.) 0.30% 0.10% -0.20%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Construction, Natural Resources, and Mining (Thous.) 0.49% -0.22% -0.72%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Educational & Health Svcs (Thous.) 2.32% 2.39% 0.07%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Federal Government (Thous.) 1.42% 0.63% -0.79%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Financial Activities (Thous.) 2.09% 1.18% -0.91%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Government (Thous.) 2.16% 1.50% -0.66%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Information (Thous.) 4.13% 2.18% -1.95%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Leisure & Hospitality (Thous.) 2.01% 3.76% 1.75%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Manufacturing (Thous.) 0.60% 0.75% 0.15%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Non-Manufacturing 2.45% 1.83% -0.63%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Other Services (Thous.) 2.43% 2.81% 0.38%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Professional & Business Svcs (Thous.) 4.61% 2.67% -1.94%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Service Providing Private (Thous.) 2.77% 2.19% -0.58%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), State & Local Government (Thous.) 2.33% 1.73% -0.60%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Total Nonfarm (Thous.) 2.40% 1.79% -0.61%
Outer Suburbs Employment (NAICS), Transp., Trade, & Utilities (Thous.) 1.41% 0.81% -0.61%

Row

Portion of Jobs Shift

Jobs Shift

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Jobs Makeup by IHS Vintage

Jobs Portion Makeup by IHS Vintage

CDC County Classification

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Weldon Cooper Forecast Shift by County Urbanization Typology

class weldon_cooper_17 weldon_cooper_21 difference
Large central metro 0.495% 0.411% -0.084%
Large fringe metro 1.114% 0.992% -0.121%
Medium metro 0.426% 0.292% -0.134%
Micropolitan Counties -0.465% -0.682% -0.217%
Noncore Counties 0.075% -0.084% -0.159%
Small metro Counties 0.825% 0.721% -0.104%

MD State Planning Forecast Shift by County Urbanization Typology

class maryland_2014 maryland_2018 maryland_2020 change
Large central metro 0.214% 0.149% 0.053% -0.161%
Large fringe metro 0.553% 0.515% 0.490% -0.063%
Medium metro 0.877% 0.834% 0.712% -0.165%
Micropolitan Counties 0.607% 0.580% 0.446% -0.162%
Noncore Counties 0.689% 0.676% 0.592% -0.097%
Small metro Counties 0.998% 0.878% 0.733% -0.264%

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CDC Typology Map