Math or Epi

Whom to hire?

Artemiy Okhotin, ITMO, PHS Course

Case for the epidemiologist (1)

• We know what infectious diseases are
• We have dealt with it historically
• We are (almost) physicians

Case for the epidemiologist (2)

• Math models are imprecise
• Models depends on the precise knowledge of the current state
• And only epidemiologists know how to investigate it

Case for the epidemiologist (3)

- More precise models are in the nearsight, more extremely they diverge further… \[ f(x) = f(a) + \frac{f'(a)}{1!}(x-a) + \frac{f''(a)}{2!}(x-a)^2 + \frac{f'''(a)}{3!}(x-a)^3 + ...\]

Case for the epidemiologist (4)

• Epidemilogy is biology
• Biology should be done by biologists
• Father of modern epidemiology was John Snow, physician, not a mathematician
• Let us do our own business by ourselves

Case for mathematician (1)

• We don’t know what infectious disease are… but we don’t need it to make predictions
• Math is universal language of nature making its way to all natural sciences
• People need stories, policy makers need numbers

Case for mathematician (2)

• Our models are imprecise, but bad prediction is better than no prediction at all
• We need to know the current state, but the only language to describe it is math
• John Snow was anesthesiologist… so let epidemiology be done by anesthesiologists?
• Specialty chauvinism is not good for science

Case for mathematician (3)

• You can hire epidemiologists but pay us…
• because one can’t count money without math.