Plea Bargaining Project Summary

1 Abstract

Plea bargaining is a cornerstone of the American criminal justice system as the majority of criminal cases in the US are resolved through pleas. In Philadelphia, almost all defendants charged with a felony offense are offered pleas before trial. The goal of this project is to understand the plea bargaining process for criminal offenses in Philadelphia. What factors impact a defendant’s decision to accept or reject a plea? We are also exploring the “trial penalty”, the disparity between the sentence offered in a plea and the sentence imposed if a defendant is convicted through trial. The main dataset we are working with is collected by prosecutors at the Philadelphia District Attorney’s Office (DAO) and records the first offer available to a defendant. The first offer is usually conveyed to the defendant a few weeks after arraignment by an ADA in the DAO’s Pre-trial unit. We also have access to data for a smaller group of cases that observes the final offer available to a defendant and are collected by ADAs in the DAO’s Major Trials unit. Both datasets have limitations due data entry errors and lack of responsiveness from ADAs.

2 Introduction

We are working with data at the Philadelphia DAO to understand the trial penalty and what may lead a defendant to accept or reject a plea for felony offenses in Philadelphia. When an individual is arrested, the state will notify them of the charges within 24 hours. Next, a judge will review the case and decide if there is enough evidence for the state to proceed. If the judge accepts the charges, an arraignment is scheduled approximately 14 days after arrest where the defendant will hear the formal charges against them. Within a few weeks of arraignment, the prosecutor conveys an initial offer to the defense. This is known as the “smart room” offer and is normally handled by an ADA in the DAO’s Pre-Trial unit. A defendant can choose to accept or reject this initial plea offer. If they reject the initial plea offer, the case moves onto the trial phase. The defendant will then receive an offer from an ADA in the DAO’s Major Trials unit (it can either be the same or different from the one given by the Pre-Trial unit), which will stay open until the case is disposed of. While there can be plea bargaining between prosecutor and defense attorney throughout the life of a case, we only have access to data, with limitations, to offers at 2 stages of the process:

1. For a first group of cases, we observe the first offer (made at the Pre-Trial phase) and the final case disposition.

2. For another (smaller) subset of cases, we observe some final plea offers and final case disposition.

There are two datasets at the DAO where we observe pleas. In the first dataset, we observe the initial or smart room plea for felony cases. This data has around 80,000 observations and spans a period of 2007-2021. The “smart room” dataset has a few important limitations. First, smart offer data are collected by Pre-Trial ADAs so we do not observe pleas for cases handled by other units, namely homicide, non-fatal shootings and domestic violence. Second, because the data are manually collected, if an ADA does not enter an offer we will not observe it. Response rates vary across time periods; they are highest during the 2012-2017 time-period. Lastly, if there is a global offer on multiple open cases the ADA may not record the offer for all of them. The second dataset is collected by Major Trials ADAs after the case is disposed of and provides the final offer available to a defendant. The Major Trials data are only collected from February 2020 onward and have approximately 1,000 observations as well as a high rate of missingness. We speculate that the high rate of missingness is due to a lack of responsiveness from Major Trials ADAs.

Generally, as a defendant moves through the case process, data recording is straightforward and as described above. In a simple example, an individual is arrested and has no other open cases. Within 24 hours of arrest, the individual will have a preliminary arraignment where they will hear the charges against them. The DAO Charging unit receives the case and decides charges based on recommendations from the police before the preliminary arraignment. The case is then transferred to a DAO Municipal Court prosecutor who will bring the charges in front of a judge. If the defendant is held for court, a formal arraignment is scheduled, which the DAO aims to have around two weeks after arrest. Charges can be revised by the judge or prosecutor handling the case anytime during this process.

ADAs in the Pre-trial unit receive the case files sometime after preliminary arraignment, however it can also be after formal arraignment. Cases are filtered to an ADA based on the geographic location of the offense. An ADA is assigned to a courtroom, which corresponds with a geographic area in Philadelphia, for a long period of time and will handle all cases in that courtroom. Theoretically, there are a very small number of ADAs handling Pre-Trial cases given that there are only five geographic areas of Philadelphia. Exceptions to this structure are homicides, non-fatal shootings and domestic violence cases, which are handled by ADAs in other units.

Once the Pre-trial ADA receives the case, they will convey an initial offer to the defense within a few weeks of arraignment. If the defendant accepts the smart room offer and the case is disposed of at the pre-trial conference, we observe the offer that is accepted. If the defendant rejects the smart room offer but accepts a subsequent offer before the case enters trial phase, we observe the first offer only and not future offers that might come through the later bargaining process. If the case moves to the trial phase, it is transferred from the Pre-Trial unit to the Major Trials unit. If a defendant pleads guilty during the trial phase, we observe the offer that is ultimately accepted; but it may have resulted from more rounds of bargaining between the defense attorney and prosecutor. Therefore, similar to the pre-trial phase, we do not observe the bargaining because we have access to the final offer only. If the final offer is rejected, we still observe both the final disposition and final offer that was available to the defendant.

3 Creating a Sample Dataset

3.1 Cases Eligible for a Plea

In Philadelphia, all felony cases are handled by the DAO are theoretically eligible for a plea. However, the plea offer recording system is tool used only by Pre-Trial ADAs, and not ADAs in other DAO units such as Homicide, Non-Fatal Shooting, or Economic Crimes. In addition, the plea offer data are manually collected by Pre-Trial ADAs and subject to attrition as ADAs may not always enter pleas in the system. If cases get a global offer, the ADA may input the offer with only one cases in the DAO database system and we would not observe offers for the other cases. While we can link global offers together if the offer is accepted and the cases are ultimately disposed of together, it will be challenging to identify unobserved global offers if it’s rejected. See Appendix A for more discussion on attrition.

The histogram below displays the percent of cases eligible for a plea in Philadelphia that we observe in the plea offer data. Responsiveness is highest from 2011-2017 (approximately 70%). We subset our analyses to the 2012-2017 time period because it is during this “high response” time period and data for case characteristics are most complete 2012 and onward. Overall, there are approximately 80,000 cases eligible for a plea during this time period. Summary statistics for these cases are in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Summary Stats of Cases Eligible for a Plea

		Portion of Cases:				Portion of Cases, Conditional on Going to Trial:
Descriptive	Cases Eligible for a Plea	Accept Initial Offer	Enter Trial Phase	PreTrial Dismissal	Trial Dismissal	Jury Trial	Waiver Trial
Total	77967	0.368	0.586	0.022	0.110	0.378	0.515
Race
Black	50105	0.331	0.623	0.021	0.120	0.392	0.509
White	25044	0.447	0.508	0.023	0.089	0.344	0.532
Unknown/Unreported	1690	0.330	0.592	0.031	0.153	0.300	0.551
Asian/Pacific Islander	1030	0.300	0.643	0.028	0.104	0.474	0.412
Native American/Alaskan Native	54	0.407	0.537	0.000	0.056	0.414	0.414
Bi-Racial	24	0.208	0.708	0.000	0.125	0.412	0.176
Asian	20	0.450	0.550	0.000	0.100	0.364	0.545
Age Group
18-25	29292	0.388	0.567	0.016	0.094	0.405	0.497
26-30	13404	0.353	0.610	0.020	0.121	0.380	0.521
31-35	9959	0.335	0.624	0.025	0.129	0.368	0.518
36-40	7303	0.361	0.597	0.028	0.123	0.365	0.528
41-50	10748	0.372	0.588	0.025	0.116	0.333	0.539
51-60	5420	0.378	0.574	0.031	0.120	0.343	0.547
61+	1081	0.337	0.586	0.049	0.115	0.371	0.500
less than 18	642	0.235	0.266	0.030	0.017	0.749	0.146
NA	118	0.297	0.636	0.051	0.161	0.213	0.587
Gender
Male	68285	0.363	0.593	0.022	0.110	0.389	0.507
Female	9640	0.401	0.530	0.020	0.114	0.289	0.579
Unreported/Unknown	42	0.262	0.667	0.048	0.167	0.250	0.571
Offense Gravity Score
0	481	0.094	0.792	0.054	0.237	0.194	0.612
1	3681	0.133	0.845	0.009	0.109	0.142	0.595
2	1488	0.309	0.659	0.014	0.101	0.162	0.618
3	10561	0.443	0.540	0.004	0.039	0.301	0.545
4	2106	0.460	0.528	0.001	0.001	0.362	0.532
5	32948	0.450	0.493	0.026	0.129	0.235	0.660
6	3239	0.475	0.514	0.004	0.001	0.438	0.465
7	6731	0.308	0.630	0.038	0.182	0.373	0.541
8	4277	0.077	0.736	0.101	0.442	0.473	0.464
9	3828	0.322	0.671	0.001	0.003	0.622	0.349
10	5419	0.295	0.700	0.000	0.001	0.770	0.183
11	665	0.057	0.904	0.018	0.206	0.865	0.123
12	948	0.269	0.729	0.000	0.000	0.821	0.130
13	88	0.068	0.932	0.000	0.000	0.988	0.012
14	1240	0.129	0.867	0.000	0.002	0.865	0.094
15	264	0.019	0.981	0.000	0.008	0.884	0.116
NA	3	0.000	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000	0.000
Prior Record Score
0	47251	0.283	0.650	0.032	0.180	0.378	0.517
1	5452	0.451	0.532	0.007	0.005	0.292	0.572
2	5925	0.469	0.513	0.007	0.005	0.324	0.550
3	4800	0.492	0.498	0.003	0.004	0.417	0.480
4	2724	0.497	0.484	0.009	0.004	0.345	0.527
5	8125	0.581	0.406	0.004	0.003	0.423	0.481
REVOC	558	0.344	0.652	0.000	0.000	0.742	0.217
RFEL	3132	0.458	0.519	0.014	0.003	0.427	0.482
Offense Description
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	23726	0.464	0.498	0.018	0.079	0.221	0.682
Aggravated Assault	9902	0.222	0.743	0.014	0.165	0.407	0.515
Robbery	7991	0.304	0.645	0.015	0.106	0.594	0.334
Property	7956	0.450	0.460	0.031	0.117	0.201	0.628
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	6121	0.459	0.506	0.010	0.107	0.247	0.617
Weapons	5532	0.259	0.707	0.023	0.145	0.422	0.526
Shoplifting	3204	0.713	0.268	0.005	0.064	0.063	0.690
Murder/Manslaughter	3102	0.104	0.880	0.005	0.067	0.859	0.115
Rape/Sex Offense	2265	0.256	0.726	0.008	0.086	0.824	0.143
Obstruction of Justice	1920	0.272	0.561	0.155	0.121	0.352	0.519
Driving Under the Influence	1429	0.115	0.875	0.006	0.167	0.284	0.408
NA	1270	0.336	0.576	0.054	0.154	0.473	0.397
Public Order	1050	0.301	0.628	0.019	0.179	0.144	0.604
Other	1017	0.320	0.574	0.093	0.108	0.384	0.493
Drug Possession	510	0.155	0.812	0.025	0.273	0.138	0.336
Other Persons	475	0.225	0.714	0.042	0.173	0.401	0.431
Simple Assault	418	0.230	0.718	0.022	0.203	0.297	0.590
Prostitution	79	0.152	0.785	0.025	0.127	0.145	0.403
* Cases defined as eligible for a plea are all cases that go through the Court of Common Pleas in Philadelphia.
† Data are filtered to 2012-2017 time period.

3.2 Explanation of Filters

There are four main groups of cases that will have non-standard plea processes at the DAO. Below, I provide detail about each of these groups and explain how they complicate data analysis. Ultimately, when creating a sample dataset for analysis, I filter subsets of these groups that either a) we do not observe pleas for or b) are complex cases that impact the offer.

1. First, cases that go to units other than Pre-Trial, specifically Homicide, Non-Fatal Shooting, Family Violence and Sexual Assault (FVSA), Economic Crimes, and Dangerous Drug Offenders (See Appendix B for more information on other units). These cases are “specially assigned” to ADAs in particular units and will stay within that unit until resolution. I filter these cases out of the sample data for a few reasons:
   • Non-PreTrial ADAs generally do not use the plea offer recording tool utilized by Pre-Trial ADAs and so we do not observe plea offers for most of these cases.
   • Cases going to specialized units have a different plea offer process than Pre-Trial.
2. Violation of probation (VOP) cases. There are two main ways in which VOP’s may occur:
   • A defendant has no other open cases at the time of violation. Violations can occur if the defendant fails to appear for a status listing or violates any conditions of their probation (i.e. attending classes). Cases with VOPs in this categort can be treated the same as non-VOP cases because any revocation is independent of the initial plea outcome.
   • A defendant has another open case (or cases) at the time of violation. This generally occurs if a defendant is arrested while on probation for another case. The VOP is either consolidated with the new case(s) or dropped - it is up to the discretion of the prosecutor handling the case. Because we observe the plea for the VOP’s original case independent of later consolidation, I suggest that we flag the consolidation as “consolidated with a VOP” and treat the initial VOP independently.
3. Consolidated cases. Consolidations can occur informally or through the ARC process.
   • ARC consolidation is a program at the DAO to streamline defendants with multiple open cases. These cases are usually complex and get tagged for ARC consolidation prior to the smart room offer. Therefore, I suggest filtering these cases out of the data. ARC consolidation can also occur with any open VOP, in which case we should treat the VOP similar to above and only remove the consolidated group.
   • Informal consolidation is not a clear cut process and we do not have a way of determining when consolidation occurs in relation to the initial offer. I keep these cases in the sample data and bound results assuming consolidation occurs before (after) the initial offer.
4. Diversion. Cases that are diverted get flagged early on in the case process. An ADA may make an offer on a case that gets diverted, however, the defendant will either reject the plea or ignore it until diversion applications are resolved. If the defendant’s application for diversion is rejected, the case will resume through Pre-Trial as normal, however there may be multiple attempts to appeal the diversion decision. There are two main diversion programs for CP cases in PA, Intermediate Punishment and ARD, and only a small portion (<5%) of cases ultimately get diverted. Because diversion applications occur pre-offer, I filter these cases out of the sample data.

The chart below displays what portion of cases eligible for a plea fall into these different groups each year. Groups are not mutually exclusive. Table 2 additionally provides summary statistics for each group.

Table 2: Summary Stats for Groups of Cases Eligible for a Plea with Non-Standard Plea Processes

		Portion of Cases:				Portion of Cases, Conditional on Going to Trial:
Descriptive	Cases Eligible for a Plea	Accept Initial Offer	Enter Trial Phase	PreTrial Dismissal	Trial Dismissal	Jury Trial	Waiver Trial
Total	77967	0.368	0.586	0.022	0.110	0.378	0.515
Handled by Non-PreTrial ADAs	24283	0.303	0.630	0.022	0.115	0.548	0.317
Violation of Probation	30683	0.551	0.423	0.008	0.004	0.298	0.598
All Consolidations	33376	0.483	0.487	0.016	0.061	0.432	0.440
ARC Consolidations	8375	0.663	0.312	0.018	0.014	0.321	0.576
Diverted	3342	0.525	0.253	0.019	0.039	0.134	0.663
* Cases handled by Non-PreTrial ADAs are defined as cases either a) associated with an offense type known to go to specialized unit or b) associated with an ADA during the pretrial phase that is not in the PreTrial unit at the DAO. I am currently assuming ADAs handling a low number of cases are Non-PreTrial, however this will be updated once we recieve ADA assignment history from the DAO.
† Violation of Probation cases are defined as any case eligible for a violation hearing, including recovations and non-sanctioning violations.
‡ Consolidations are any cases sentenced together or have ARC Consolidation hearings.
§ Cases that are diverted are sent to Intermediate Punishment (a supervision program) or ARD.

3.3 Sample Data Summary Statistics

As detailed above, we remove cases handled by Non-PreTrial ADAs, ARC consolidations and cases that are diverted from the sample data. After these filters, the sample data contains approximately 45,000 cases across 2012-2017. The chart below plots the portion of cases missing a plea offer by year in the sample data and Table 3 provides summary statistics for the sample. Note, we have plea offers for more than 80% of sample cases each year (up from approximately 70%). This is largely because we remove cases handled by Non-PreTrial ADAs, who do not use the plea offer recording tool.

Table 3: Summary Stats Sample Dataset

		Portion of Cases that:				Portion of Cases, Conditional on Going to Trial, that:
Descriptive	Cases Eligible for a Plea	Accept Initial Offer	Enter Trial Phase	Are Dismissed	Jury Trial	Waiver Trial	NA
Total	77967	0.368	0.586	0.022	0.110	0.378	0.515
Race
Black	50105	0.331	0.623	0.021	0.120	0.392	0.509
White	25044	0.447	0.508	0.023	0.089	0.344	0.532
Unknown/Unreported	1690	0.330	0.592	0.031	0.153	0.300	0.551
Asian/Pacific Islander	1030	0.300	0.643	0.028	0.104	0.474	0.412
Native American/Alaskan Native	54	0.407	0.537	0.000	0.056	0.414	0.414
Bi-Racial	24	0.208	0.708	0.000	0.125	0.412	0.176
Asian	20	0.450	0.550	0.000	0.100	0.364	0.545
Age Group
18-25	29292	0.388	0.567	0.016	0.094	0.405	0.497
26-30	13404	0.353	0.610	0.020	0.121	0.380	0.521
31-35	9959	0.335	0.624	0.025	0.129	0.368	0.518
36-40	7303	0.361	0.597	0.028	0.123	0.365	0.528
41-50	10748	0.372	0.588	0.025	0.116	0.333	0.539
51-60	5420	0.378	0.574	0.031	0.120	0.343	0.547
61+	1081	0.337	0.586	0.049	0.115	0.371	0.500
less than 18	642	0.235	0.266	0.030	0.017	0.749	0.146
NA	118	0.297	0.636	0.051	0.161	0.213	0.587
Gender
Male	68285	0.363	0.593	0.022	0.110	0.389	0.507
Female	9640	0.401	0.530	0.020	0.114	0.289	0.579
Unreported/Unknown	42	0.262	0.667	0.048	0.167	0.250	0.571
Offense Gravity Score
0	481	0.094	0.792	0.054	0.237	0.194	0.612
1	3681	0.133	0.845	0.009	0.109	0.142	0.595
2	1488	0.309	0.659	0.014	0.101	0.162	0.618
3	10561	0.443	0.540	0.004	0.039	0.301	0.545
4	2106	0.460	0.528	0.001	0.001	0.362	0.532
5	32948	0.450	0.493	0.026	0.129	0.235	0.660
6	3239	0.475	0.514	0.004	0.001	0.438	0.465
7	6731	0.308	0.630	0.038	0.182	0.373	0.541
8	4277	0.077	0.736	0.101	0.442	0.473	0.464
9	3828	0.322	0.671	0.001	0.003	0.622	0.349
10	5419	0.295	0.700	0.000	0.001	0.770	0.183
11	665	0.057	0.904	0.018	0.206	0.865	0.123
12	948	0.269	0.729	0.000	0.000	0.821	0.130
13	88	0.068	0.932	0.000	0.000	0.988	0.012
14	1240	0.129	0.867	0.000	0.002	0.865	0.094
15	264	0.019	0.981	0.000	0.008	0.884	0.116
Prior Record Score
NA	3	0.000	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000	0.000
0	47251	0.283	0.650	0.032	0.180	0.378	0.517
1	5452	0.451	0.532	0.007	0.005	0.292	0.572
2	5925	0.469	0.513	0.007	0.005	0.324	0.550
3	4800	0.492	0.498	0.003	0.004	0.417	0.480
4	2724	0.497	0.484	0.009	0.004	0.345	0.527
5	8125	0.581	0.406	0.004	0.003	0.423	0.481
REVOC	558	0.344	0.652	0.000	0.000	0.742	0.217
Offense Description
RFEL	3132	0.458	0.519	0.014	0.003	0.427	0.482
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	23726	0.464	0.498	0.018	0.079	0.221	0.682
Aggravated Assault	9902	0.222	0.743	0.014	0.165	0.407	0.515
Robbery	7991	0.304	0.645	0.015	0.106	0.594	0.334
Property	7956	0.450	0.460	0.031	0.117	0.201	0.628
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	6121	0.459	0.506	0.010	0.107	0.247	0.617
Weapons	5532	0.259	0.707	0.023	0.145	0.422	0.526
Shoplifting	3204	0.713	0.268	0.005	0.064	0.063	0.690
Murder/Manslaughter	3102	0.104	0.880	0.005	0.067	0.859	0.115
Rape/Sex Offense	2265	0.256	0.726	0.008	0.086	0.824	0.143
Obstruction of Justice	1920	0.272	0.561	0.155	0.121	0.352	0.519
Driving Under the Influence	1429	0.115	0.875	0.006	0.167	0.284	0.408
NA	1270	0.336	0.576	0.054	0.154	0.473	0.397
Public Order	1050	0.301	0.628	0.019	0.179	0.144	0.604
Other	1017	0.320	0.574	0.093	0.108	0.384	0.493
Drug Possession	510	0.155	0.812	0.025	0.273	0.138	0.336
Other Persons	475	0.225	0.714	0.042	0.173	0.401	0.431
Simple Assault	418	0.230	0.718	0.022	0.203	0.297	0.590
Prostitution	79	0.152	0.785	0.025	0.127	0.145	0.403
* Data are filtered to 2012-2017 time period.

[[Insert data description for Setences in Sample Data]] [[Insert data description for Offers in Sample Data]]

4 The “Trial Penalty” in Philadelphia

The “Trial Penalty” is traditionally measured by comparing cases with similar characteristics that resolve in guilty pleas or guilty convictions at trial. We replicate this methodology and find that case resolution at trial increases final incarceration sentence for similar cases. However, we also directly compare the initial Pre-Trial offer with the final sentence and find that the initial offer is larger than the final sentence.

4.1 Traditional Definition

[[Describe “Trial Penalty” in prior literature]]

To measure the “Trial Penalty”, as traditionally defined, in Philadephia, we subset the sample data to cases resolved in a guilty plea or trial from 2012-2017 and compare incarceration minimums, incarceration maximums and probation while controlling for defendant demographic information (race, age, gender), offense severity, defendant prior record score and offense type. We also check the “Trial Penalty” assuming sentences are continuous and discontinuous.

4.1.1 No Consolidations

We first check the trial penalty for non-consolidated cases (adding consolidations will require additional assumptions). The charts below provide a breakdown of outcomes for non-consolidated cases in the sample data as well as portion of sentenced cases that are consolidated vs not. Table 4 includes regression results for the “Trial Penalty”, assuming sentences are continuous and Tables 5-7 include regression results for the “Trial Penalty”, assuming sentences are discontinuous.

Table 4: Regression Results Trial Penalty, Traditional Method

	Sample Data			Sample Data (Cases with Observed Plea Offers Only)
	Incarceration Minimum	Incarceration Maximum	Probation	Incarceration Minimum	Incarceration Maximum	Probation
(Intercept)	−8.693***	−16.049***	0.195	−8.395***	−15.253***	−0.320
	(1.996)	(4.007)	(1.606)	(1.951)	(3.855)	(1.494)
trial	6.464***	11.668***	−3.353***	5.863***	10.376***	−2.851***
	(0.346)	(0.716)	(0.409)	(0.349)	(0.724)	(0.428)
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	−0.546	−1.001	4.091***	−0.321	−0.613	3.961***
	(0.448)	(0.975)	(0.702)	(0.471)	(1.020)	(0.730)
Driving Under the Influence	−1.111*	0.010	−5.987***	−1.160*	0.108	−4.678***
	(0.562)	(1.325)	(1.296)	(0.567)	(1.391)	(1.403)
Drug Possession	0.895	1.898	0.763	1.224	2.808	2.493
	(0.904)	(2.226)	(2.642)	(1.101)	(2.739)	(2.956)
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	1.706***	2.746**	2.723***	1.915***	3.063***	3.207***
	(0.408)	(0.875)	(0.638)	(0.428)	(0.917)	(0.669)
Murder/Manslaughter	11.657***	26.896***	−4.532*	12.505***	28.449***	−3.152
	(1.788)	(3.956)	(2.275)	(2.283)	(5.042)	(2.939)
Obstruction of Justice	−0.320	−0.611	−5.803***	0.306	1.132	−7.283***
	(0.483)	(1.083)	(1.058)	(0.484)	(1.105)	(1.187)
Other	−0.915	−2.457	3.760**	−0.549	−1.505	3.528**
	(0.755)	(1.576)	(1.189)	(0.832)	(1.722)	(1.251)
Other Persons	0.845	0.342	9.083***	0.906	0.278	9.659***
	(0.797)	(1.726)	(2.181)	(0.823)	(1.799)	(2.422)
Property	−0.512	−1.348+	4.212***	−0.274	−0.765	4.143***
	(0.369)	(0.794)	(0.621)	(0.384)	(0.826)	(0.653)
Prostitution	−1.991+	−3.902	−0.443	−0.915	−1.548	−0.576
	(1.073)	(2.438)	(3.611)	(1.048)	(2.481)	(3.624)
Public Order	−0.172	0.459	0.041	−0.122	0.271	0.907
	(0.525)	(1.259)	(1.071)	(0.488)	(1.091)	(1.135)
Rape/Sex Offense	−3.650*	−10.683**	24.376***	−2.716	−8.657*	24.921***
	(1.592)	(3.270)	(2.623)	(1.708)	(3.477)	(2.827)
Robbery	1.502*	4.376***	1.522*	1.766**	5.073***	1.510+
	(0.599)	(1.266)	(0.772)	(0.615)	(1.302)	(0.808)
Shoplifting	−0.316	1.021	4.809***	−0.212	1.221+	5.387***
	(0.307)	(0.687)	(0.663)	(0.313)	(0.703)	(0.684)
Simple Assault	−0.178	−0.573	−4.174	0.076	0.376	−4.138
	(1.112)	(2.314)	(2.609)	(1.266)	(2.610)	(2.994)
Weapons	0.693	0.562	0.898	1.067+	1.133	0.863
	(0.521)	(1.114)	(0.789)	(0.566)	(1.207)	(0.847)
age_group26-30	2.226***	4.657***	−0.523	2.052***	4.303***	−0.166
	(0.213)	(0.473)	(0.400)	(0.214)	(0.472)	(0.415)
age_group31-35	3.501***	7.502***	−1.746***	3.237***	6.946***	−1.334**
	(0.249)	(0.545)	(0.439)	(0.246)	(0.541)	(0.455)
age_group36-40	3.858***	8.743***	−1.699***	3.568***	8.187***	−1.318*
	(0.321)	(0.720)	(0.507)	(0.294)	(0.679)	(0.528)
age_group41-50	4.405***	9.552***	−1.212**	4.129***	9.114***	−1.078*
	(0.280)	(0.597)	(0.443)	(0.274)	(0.589)	(0.465)
age_group51-60	3.419***	7.264***	−0.377	3.527***	7.652***	−0.287
	(0.337)	(0.744)	(0.592)	(0.353)	(0.785)	(0.623)
age_group61+	3.455+	7.450+	1.630	4.101+	9.049+	1.384
	(1.911)	(3.949)	(1.245)	(2.308)	(4.756)	(1.361)
age_groupless than 18	3.023	8.353	3.776	−0.810	−4.704+	5.925
	(2.365)	(8.057)	(7.151)	(1.543)	(2.785)	(5.635)
Male	3.247***	7.548***	−1.512***	3.039***	7.115***	−1.294***
	(0.173)	(0.388)	(0.360)	(0.178)	(0.401)	(0.377)
Unreported/Unknown	4.203	9.126+	−11.090*	2.002	2.786	−5.932
	(2.888)	(5.379)	(5.467)	(1.539)	(3.045)	(3.979)
Num.Obs.	21943	21943	21943	19145	19145	19145
R2	0.467	0.460	0.156	0.440	0.437	0.161
R2 Adj.	0.466	0.459	0.154	0.439	0.435	0.159
Std.Errors	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1
a Traditional method of analyzing ‘trial penalty’ assumes sentences are continuous and coefficients can be interpreted as a case resolving in a jury or waiver trial increases incarceration by X number of months.
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Table 5: Regression Results Trial Penalty, Probability the Minimum Incarceration Sentence is at least X years

	Sample Data				Sample Data (Cases with Observed Plea Offers Only)
	any incarceration	6 months	1 year	2 years	any incarceration	6 months	1 year	2 years
(Intercept)	−0.153	−0.334*	−0.239**	−0.138**	−0.176	−0.344*	−0.239**	−0.133**
	(0.128)	(0.160)	(0.076)	(0.051)	(0.124)	(0.158)	(0.075)	(0.049)
trial	0.078***	0.108***	0.120***	0.109***	0.068***	0.105***	0.115***	0.105***
	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.006)
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	−0.050***	−0.016	−0.009	−0.017+	−0.055***	−0.017	0.000	−0.013
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.009)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.011)	(0.009)
Driving Under the Influence	0.359***	−0.153***	0.022	0.007	0.391***	−0.175***	0.013	0.008
	(0.030)	(0.029)	(0.021)	(0.012)	(0.033)	(0.030)	(0.020)	(0.012)
Drug Possession	−0.082	−0.040	0.087+	0.043	−0.080	−0.054	0.091	0.058
	(0.071)	(0.059)	(0.050)	(0.029)	(0.081)	(0.068)	(0.059)	(0.037)
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	−0.057***	0.034**	0.055***	0.043***	−0.048***	0.047***	0.061***	0.042***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.009)
Murder/Manslaughter	0.083***	0.085***	0.128***	0.160***	0.086***	0.090**	0.132***	0.163***
	(0.018)	(0.020)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.024)	(0.027)	(0.034)	(0.033)
Obstruction of Justice	0.015	0.032	0.026	−0.011	0.053*	0.076**	0.044*	−0.013
	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.017)	(0.010)	(0.025)	(0.026)	(0.019)	(0.010)
Other	−0.059*	−0.025	−0.038*	−0.023	−0.043	−0.014	−0.027	−0.019
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.019)	(0.016)
Other Persons	0.026	0.088+	0.048	0.022	0.012	0.080	0.044	0.031
	(0.049)	(0.048)	(0.034)	(0.028)	(0.053)	(0.050)	(0.035)	(0.032)
Property	−0.150***	−0.103***	0.009	0.017*	−0.133***	−0.089***	0.017+	0.019*
	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.008)
Prostitution	−0.234**	−0.175*	−0.038+	−0.003	−0.187*	−0.135	−0.023	0.009
	(0.079)	(0.077)	(0.020)	(0.014)	(0.092)	(0.090)	(0.020)	(0.013)
Public Order	0.014	−0.086***	0.002	0.015	0.000	−0.080***	0.003	0.018+
	(0.030)	(0.023)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.031)	(0.024)	(0.013)	(0.011)
Rape/Sex Offense	−0.346***	−0.257***	−0.054	−0.016	−0.311***	−0.226***	−0.038	−0.002
	(0.065)	(0.057)	(0.038)	(0.032)	(0.069)	(0.060)	(0.040)	(0.033)
Robbery	0.038**	0.047***	0.050***	0.050***	0.040**	0.050***	0.059***	0.051***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.010)
Shoplifting	−0.039*	−0.108***	−0.014+	0.012*	−0.038*	−0.108***	−0.007	0.012*
	(0.017)	(0.014)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.008)	(0.006)
Simple Assault	−0.010	0.008	0.042	−0.008	0.028	0.027	0.059	−0.009
	(0.062)	(0.056)	(0.046)	(0.026)	(0.067)	(0.060)	(0.055)	(0.031)
Weapons	0.009	0.056***	0.022+	0.027*	0.019	0.075***	0.040**	0.034**
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.012)
age_group26-30	0.068***	0.074***	0.056***	0.036***	0.075***	0.078***	0.053***	0.032***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)
age_group31-35	0.118***	0.118***	0.078***	0.048***	0.129***	0.124***	0.080***	0.044***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.007)	(0.006)
age_group36-40	0.136***	0.133***	0.085***	0.046***	0.148***	0.143***	0.086***	0.041***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.006)
age_group41-50	0.160***	0.151***	0.090***	0.052***	0.176***	0.162***	0.090***	0.048***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.006)
age_group51-60	0.130***	0.136***	0.068***	0.038***	0.147***	0.149***	0.077***	0.041***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.008)
age_group61+	0.038	0.065**	0.012	0.011	0.061*	0.073**	0.025	0.015
	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.017)	(0.014)
age_groupless than 18	0.074	0.131	0.342***	0.179**	−0.233+	−0.142	0.163	−0.017
	(0.087)	(0.087)	(0.099)	(0.068)	(0.121)	(0.136)	(0.181)	(0.014)
Male	0.146***	0.122***	0.078***	0.051***	0.150***	0.121***	0.072***	0.045***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.004)
Unreported/Unknown	0.077	0.044	0.079	0.083+	−0.082*	0.023	0.079*	0.048
	(0.131)	(0.085)	(0.050)	(0.048)	(0.032)	(0.045)	(0.035)	(0.032)
Num.Obs.	21943	21943	21943	21943	19145	19145	19145	19145
R2	0.334	0.341	0.287	0.348	0.344	0.340	0.270	0.332
R2 Adj.	0.333	0.339	0.286	0.347	0.342	0.338	0.268	0.330
Std.Errors	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1
a Assuming sentences are discontinuous, coefficients can be interpreted as a case resolving in a jury or waiver trial increases probability of incarceration by X%.
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Table 6: Regression Results Trial Penalty, Probability the Maximum Incarceration Sentence is at least X years

	Sample Data				Sample Data (Cases with Observed Plea Offers Only)
	any incarceration	1 year	2 years	5 years	any incarceration	1 year	2 years	5 years
(Intercept)	−0.153	−0.203	−0.242**	−0.112**	−0.176	−0.209+	−0.242**	−0.107**
	(0.128)	(0.130)	(0.077)	(0.040)	(0.124)	(0.126)	(0.076)	(0.037)
trial	0.078***	0.065***	0.120***	0.087***	0.068***	0.056***	0.115***	0.083***
	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.006)
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	−0.050***	−0.027*	−0.012	−0.012	−0.055***	−0.034*	−0.003	−0.006
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.011)	(0.009)
Driving Under the Influence	0.359***	−0.186***	0.030	0.019	0.391***	−0.211***	0.015	0.015
	(0.030)	(0.031)	(0.023)	(0.014)	(0.033)	(0.034)	(0.022)	(0.013)
Drug Possession	−0.082	−0.083	0.084+	0.051	−0.080	−0.076	0.086	0.069+
	(0.071)	(0.063)	(0.050)	(0.032)	(0.081)	(0.074)	(0.059)	(0.041)
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	−0.057***	−0.021+	0.051***	0.041***	−0.048***	−0.015	0.057***	0.041***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.008)
Murder/Manslaughter	0.083***	0.073***	0.127***	0.162***	0.086***	0.077**	0.130***	0.165***
	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.024)	(0.025)	(0.034)	(0.033)
Obstruction of Justice	0.015	−0.002	0.064***	−0.006	0.053*	0.038	0.094***	−0.003
	(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.018)	(0.009)	(0.025)	(0.026)	(0.022)	(0.009)
Other	−0.059*	−0.047+	−0.037*	−0.031*	−0.043	−0.034	−0.025	−0.025+
	(0.028)	(0.027)	(0.018)	(0.013)	(0.030)	(0.029)	(0.020)	(0.013)
Other Persons	0.026	0.043	0.047	−0.009	0.012	0.025	0.042	−0.004
	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.034)	(0.022)	(0.053)	(0.052)	(0.035)	(0.025)
Property	−0.150***	−0.123***	0.007	0.017*	−0.133***	−0.110***	0.014	0.021**
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.009)	(0.007)
Prostitution	−0.234**	−0.186*	−0.040+	0.004	−0.187*	−0.142	−0.025	0.017
	(0.079)	(0.079)	(0.020)	(0.012)	(0.092)	(0.091)	(0.020)	(0.011)
Public Order	0.014	−0.093***	0.004	0.021+	0.000	−0.088**	0.005	0.025*
	(0.030)	(0.026)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.031)	(0.027)	(0.013)	(0.012)
Rape/Sex Offense	−0.346***	−0.344***	−0.032	−0.049*	−0.311***	−0.312***	−0.013	−0.041+
	(0.065)	(0.061)	(0.045)	(0.022)	(0.069)	(0.065)	(0.049)	(0.024)
Robbery	0.038**	0.052***	0.048***	0.046***	0.040**	0.054***	0.057***	0.049***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.010)
Shoplifting	−0.039*	−0.014	−0.015*	0.010*	−0.038*	−0.013	−0.008	0.012*
	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.008)	(0.005)
Simple Assault	−0.010	0.000	0.041	−0.019	0.028	0.033	0.058	−0.021
	(0.062)	(0.061)	(0.046)	(0.018)	(0.067)	(0.065)	(0.055)	(0.021)
Weapons	0.009	0.021	0.021+	0.022*	0.019	0.030*	0.037**	0.028*
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.012)
age_group26-30	0.068***	0.065***	0.056***	0.032***	0.075***	0.072***	0.053***	0.028***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)
age_group31-35	0.118***	0.112***	0.078***	0.043***	0.129***	0.121***	0.080***	0.040***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.006)
age_group36-40	0.136***	0.137***	0.085***	0.044***	0.148***	0.147***	0.086***	0.040***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.006)
age_group41-50	0.160***	0.156***	0.090***	0.043***	0.176***	0.171***	0.090***	0.039***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.005)
age_group51-60	0.130***	0.128***	0.070***	0.033***	0.147***	0.145***	0.079***	0.034***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.007)
age_group61+	0.038	0.040	0.010	0.008	0.061*	0.060*	0.023	0.011
	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.015)	(0.012)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.017)	(0.013)
age_groupless than 18	0.074	0.081	0.340***	0.131+	−0.233+	−0.228+	0.163	−0.007
	(0.087)	(0.089)	(0.100)	(0.077)	(0.121)	(0.126)	(0.184)	(0.010)
Male	0.146***	0.141***	0.079***	0.042***	0.150***	0.145***	0.072***	0.037***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.003)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.005)	(0.004)
Unreported/Unknown	0.077	0.090	0.074	0.084	−0.082*	−0.066*	0.080*	0.036
	(0.131)	(0.132)	(0.052)	(0.053)	(0.032)	(0.031)	(0.034)	(0.026)
Num.Obs.	21943	21943	21943	21943	19145	19145	19145	19145
R2	0.334	0.349	0.284	0.335	0.344	0.356	0.267	0.317
R2 Adj.	0.333	0.347	0.282	0.333	0.342	0.354	0.265	0.315
Std.Errors	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1
a Assuming sentences are discontinuous, coefficients can be interpreted as a case resolving in a jury or waiver trial increases probability of incarceration by X%.
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Table 7: Regression Results Trial Penalty, Probability Probation is at least X years

	Sample Data			Sample Data (Cases with Observed Plea Offers Only)
	any probation	3 years	5 years	any probation	3 years	5 years
(Intercept)	1.000***	0.095	−0.151***	1.000***	0.083	−0.158***
	(0.000)	(0.148)	(0.020)	(0.000)	(0.145)	(0.022)
trial	0.000	−0.069***	0.009	0.000	−0.062***	0.016*
	(0.000)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.008)
1	0.000	−0.026**	−0.043***	0.000	−0.022*	−0.037***
	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.008)
2	0.000	−0.040***	−0.047***	0.000	−0.033**	−0.039***
	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.011)	(0.009)
3	0.000	−0.042**	−0.016	0.000	−0.039**	−0.017
	(0.000)	(0.014)	(0.012)	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.012)
4	0.000	−0.058***	−0.043***	0.000	−0.039*	−0.040**
	(0.000)	(0.016)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.017)	(0.013)
5	0.000	−0.032*	−0.036**	0.000	−0.031+	−0.035*
	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.016)	(0.014)
REVOC	0.000	−0.170**	−0.102	0.000	−0.162*	−0.146*
	(0.000)	(0.065)	(0.064)	(0.000)	(0.080)	(0.072)
RFEL	0.000	−0.048*	−0.043*	0.000	−0.033	−0.031+
	(0.000)	(0.020)	(0.017)	(0.000)	(0.021)	(0.018)
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	0.000	0.148***	0.012	0.000	0.143***	0.013
	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.016)	(0.013)
Driving Under the Influence	0.000	−0.035	−0.055**	0.000	−0.008	−0.044+
	(0.000)	(0.034)	(0.020)	(0.000)	(0.037)	(0.023)
Drug Possession	0.000	0.021	0.060	0.000	0.040	0.089
	(0.000)	(0.066)	(0.059)	(0.000)	(0.083)	(0.077)
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	0.000	0.129***	0.005	0.000	0.140***	0.010
	(0.000)	(0.014)	(0.012)	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.013)
Murder/Manslaughter	0.000	−0.022	0.008	0.000	−0.044	0.037
	(0.000)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.000)	(0.041)	(0.041)
Obstruction of Justice	0.000	−0.046+	−0.063***	0.000	−0.077**	−0.073***
	(0.000)	(0.024)	(0.018)	(0.000)	(0.027)	(0.020)
Other	0.000	0.133***	0.033	0.000	0.126***	0.027
	(0.000)	(0.027)	(0.025)	(0.000)	(0.030)	(0.027)
Other Persons	0.000	0.229***	0.142**	0.000	0.225***	0.155**
	(0.000)	(0.041)	(0.052)	(0.000)	(0.044)	(0.056)
Property	0.000	0.170***	0.027*	0.000	0.175***	0.018
	(0.000)	(0.014)	(0.012)	(0.000)	(0.016)	(0.013)
Prostitution	0.000	0.022	−0.015	0.000	0.026	−0.084
	(0.000)	(0.096)	(0.074)	(0.000)	(0.108)	(0.062)
Public Order	0.000	0.069*	−0.035*	0.000	0.085**	−0.030
	(0.000)	(0.030)	(0.017)	(0.000)	(0.032)	(0.019)
Rape/Sex Offense	0.000	0.304***	0.599***	0.000	0.303***	0.611***
	(0.000)	(0.031)	(0.051)	(0.000)	(0.034)	(0.055)
Robbery	0.000	0.078***	0.004	0.000	0.072***	0.004
	(0.000)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.013)
Shoplifting	0.000	0.244***	−0.005	0.000	0.257***	−0.003
	(0.000)	(0.020)	(0.012)	(0.000)	(0.021)	(0.012)
Simple Assault	0.000	−0.142*	−0.032	0.000	−0.145*	−0.007
	(0.000)	(0.059)	(0.048)	(0.000)	(0.062)	(0.057)
Weapons	0.000	0.136***	−0.007	0.000	0.137***	−0.007
	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.000)	(0.017)	(0.016)
age_group26-30	0.000	−0.006	0.005	0.000	−0.001	0.011
	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.008)
age_group31-35	0.000	−0.023*	0.001	0.000	−0.017	0.007
	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.009)
age_group36-40	0.000	−0.037***	−0.004	0.000	−0.030*	−0.001
	(0.000)	(0.011)	(0.009)	(0.000)	(0.012)	(0.010)
age_group41-50	0.000	−0.031**	0.011	0.000	−0.028**	0.015+
	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.009)
age_group51-60	0.000	−0.005	0.040***	0.000	0.000	0.039***
	(0.000)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.000)	(0.013)	(0.012)
age_group61+	0.000	0.015	0.060*	0.000	−0.005	0.076**
	(0.000)	(0.025)	(0.023)	(0.000)	(0.028)	(0.026)
age_groupless than 18	0.000	0.187*	0.006	0.000	0.214***	0.023
	(0.000)	(0.091)	(0.118)	(0.000)	(0.040)	(0.245)
Male	0.000	−0.019*	−0.006	0.000	−0.017+	−0.005
	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.008)
Unreported/Unknown	0.000	−0.193	−0.187***	0.000	−0.290*	−0.135***
	(0.000)	(0.121)	(0.047)	(0.000)	(0.145)	(0.027)
Num.Obs.	21943	21943	21943	19145	19145	19145
R2		0.186	0.095		0.193	0.091
R2 Adj.		0.184	0.093		0.191	0.088
Std.Errors	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1
a Assuming sentences are discontinuous, coefficients can be interpreted as a case resolving in a jury or waiver trial increases probability of probation by X%.
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

4.1.2 Including Consolidations

[[Describe consolidation assumptions]]

[[Results for consolidations]]

4.2 A Suprising Result

While the analyses above suggest the ‘Trial Penalty’ exists, when we directly compare initial offers to final sentences we find that on average offers are worse than final sentences.

Table: Initial Offer to Final Sentence by Descriptive

		Initial Smart Room Offer/Final Sentence, Conditional on Trial Resolution
Descriptive	Number of Cases	Incarceration Minimum	Incarceration Maximum	Probation
Total	3615	1.043	1.250	1.000
Trial Type
Jury Trial Guilty	894	1.231	1.333	1.000
Waiver Trial Guilty	2721	1.043	1.200	1.000
OGS
0	43	8.111	7.953	5.984
1	354	2.875	2.998	3.000
10	286	1.000	1.002	1.000
11	6	1.143	1.538	3.333
12	15	1.000	1.000	0.875
13	1	1.250	1.250	NA
14	20	0.750	0.750	1.100
2	97	1.989	2.304	1.751
3	687	2.607	2.607	1.500
4	120	2.636	2.086	1.000
5	1144	1.002	1.043	1.000
6	199	1.155	1.306	1.000
7	299	1.043	1.043	1.000
8	27	1.002	1.280	1.000
9	317	1.000	1.001	0.800
PRS
0	2085	1.199	1.429	1.000
1	296	1.043	1.231	1.000
2	334	1.043	1.043	1.000
3	276	1.002	1.043	1.000
4	138	1.022	1.043	1.000
5	290	1.002	1.043	1.000
REVOC	18	1.000	1.002	0.875
RFEL	178	1.043	1.167	1.000
Offense Description
Aggravated Assault	787	1.564	1.922	1.500
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	260	1.043	1.250	1.000
Driving Under the Influence	20	17.581	4.524	1.500
Drug Possession	8	1.166	1.146	1.333
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	1192	1.043	1.143	1.000
Murder/Manslaughter	70	1.000	1.000	1.000
Obstruction of Justice	51	1.333	1.566	1.000
Other	36	1.043	1.002	1.000
Other Persons	28	1.500	1.200	1.000
Property	227	0.800	1.002	1.003
Prostitution	3	1.564	1.564	1.995
Public Order	41	1.043	1.022	1.502
Rape/Sex Offense	3	0.286	2.750	0.833
Robbery	430	1.043	1.333	1.000
Shoplifting	29	1.000	1.002	1.000
Simple Assault	19	1.532	1.532	1.166
Weapons	377	1.000	1.002	1.000
NA	34	1.000	1.564	1.167
Race
Asian	1	0.523	1.002	1.000
Asian/Pacific Islander	48	2.000	2.500	1.350
Black	2615	1.043	1.250	1.000
Native American/Alaskan Native	4	0.500	1.922	0.800
Unknown/Unreported	66	1.564	1.564	1.000
White	881	1.043	1.200	1.000
Age Group
18-25	1196	1.043	1.241	1.000
26-30	697	1.043	1.043	1.000
31-35	494	1.043	1.250	1.000
36-40	366	1.001	1.201	1.000
41-50	546	1.043	1.250	1.000
51-60	270	1.240	1.464	1.000
61+	42	1.599	2.000	1.000
less than 18	1	1.002	1.002	0.668
NA	3	NA	NA	0.602
Gender
Female	467	1.917	2.002	1.500
Male	3146	1.043	1.200	1.000
Unreported/Unknown	2	5.214	7.821	5.000
* Analysis is subsetted to cases that go to either jury or waiver trial and for which we observe a plea offer.

Table: Initial Offer - Final Sentence by Descriptive

		Initial Smart Room Offer - Final Sentence, Conditional on Trial Resolution
Descriptive	Number of Cases	Incarceration Minimum	Incarceration Maximum	Probation
Total	3615	6.020	23.076	0.000
Trial Type
Jury Trial Guilty	894	11.538	24.013	8.997
Waiver Trial Guilty	2721	6.003	22.558	0.000
OGS
0	43	11.538	23.076	33.059
1	354	11.908	24.013	24.013
10	286	0.000	3.076	0.000
11	6	12.007	48.026	72.039
12	15	1.505	11.538	12.007
13	1	30.016	60.033	NA
14	20	-30.033	-60.033	60.033
2	97	6.020	23.076	12.007
3	687	12.007	24.013	12.007
4	120	11.538	23.076	0.000
5	1144	1.003	11.069	0.000
6	199	6.003	12.993	0.000
7	299	2.993	11.069	0.000
8	27	3.022	9.062	0.000
9	317	0.000	0.049	0.000
PRS
0	2085	6.497	23.076	12.007
1	296	6.020	23.076	12.007
2	334	6.003	12.993	0.000
3	276	0.493	6.546	0.000
4	138	1.250	6.020	0.000
5	290	0.493	0.987	0.000
REVOC	18	0.000	0.049	0.000
RFEL	178	0.493	11.069	0.000
Offense Description
Aggravated Assault	787	11.538	24.013	12.007
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	260	6.020	23.076	8.997
Driving Under the Influence	20	11.957	33.010	12.007
Drug Possession	8	2.993	12.007	12.007
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	1192	5.987	12.993	0.000
Murder/Manslaughter	70	5.987	0.000	12.007
Obstruction of Justice	51	7.262	23.076	5.987
Other	36	4.498	23.076	0.000
Other Persons	28	11.990	24.013	0.049
Property	227	3.010	12.993	12.007
Prostitution	3	6.497	12.993	5.987
Public Order	41	1.012	6.028	12.007
Rape/Sex Offense	3	0.000	-11.513	0.000
Robbery	430	6.003	23.076	0.000
Shoplifting	29	1.743	6.521	0.000
Simple Assault	19	6.020	23.076	8.997
Weapons	377	0.493	11.069	0.000
NA	34	6.003	16.521	6.003
Race
Asian	1	-5.493	0.049	0.000
Asian/Pacific Islander	48	18.018	48.520	12.007
Black	2615	6.020	23.076	0.066
Native American/Alaskan Native	4	-3.010	11.069	-12.007
Unknown/Unreported	66	9.030	23.076	0.066
White	881	6.003	18.544	0.000
Age Group
18-25	1196	6.020	23.076	0.000
26-30	697	6.003	23.076	0.000
31-35	494	5.987	23.076	12.007
36-40	366	6.020	19.054	0.000
41-50	546	6.020	23.076	12.007
51-60	270	6.497	23.076	0.000
61+	42	12.007	24.507	0.000
less than 18	1	0.025	0.049	-11.941
NA	3	12.007	24.013	-23.914
Gender
Female	467	11.538	23.076	12.007
Male	3146	5.987	17.056	0.000
Unreported/Unknown	2	36.266	102.549	48.026
* Analysis is subsetted to cases that go to either jury or waiver trial and for which we observe a plea offer.

5 Appendix

5.1 A: Attrition

5.1.1 Case Outcomes for Attritors vs Non-Attritors

[[Description of Case Outcomes for Attritors vs Non-Attritors]]

5.1.2 Methods to Sample Attritors

Most development economists refer to Glennerster, Rachel and Takavarasha, Kudzai’s textbook Running Randomized Evaluations: A Practical Guide, Princeton: Princeton University Press, (2013) for methods to deal with attrition - namely by taking a random sample. Gerber and Green also suggest a random sample in the attrition chapter of their textbook Field Experiments: Design, Analysis and Interpretation (2012).

The Behaghel et al. (2012) paper uses a “reluctance to respond” variable (number of phone calls it takes to reach a survey participant) to balance treatment and control groups. Essentially if X% of the control group responds then they trim the treatment group to the X % of “most responsive” (lowest number of phone calls to reach) of participants. There are some marginal e% of participants in the treatment group that have the same “responsiveness” as the least responsive in the treatment group and the authors correct these marginal observations to find bounds on treatment effect (see chart below for graphical representation of the process). The key component of their methodology is the “reluctance to respond” variable, which is independent across observations. - The main challenge we face with replicating this methodology is an independent measure of “reluctance to respond” across cases. We would have to create this variable using ADA, however then all cases associated with an ADA are correlated. The paper also assumes random assignment into treatment and control groups, but we don’t have random assignment of cases into offense types.

Distribution of Outcomes in Plea Sample

							Random Sample of 300 Cases
Offense code	Offense Description	Cases Eligible for a Plea	% Plea Offer Data	% Missing	Difference	Significance	Cases	% of Cases
35 PaCS 780-113_A30	Drug manufacturing/possession with intent to deliver	7970	0.315	0.182	0.133	***	60	0.200
18 PaCS 3701	Robbery	3261	0.106	0.169	-0.063	***	56	0.187
18 PaCS 2702	Aggravated Assault	4110	0.152	0.135	0.017	***	40	0.133
18 PaCS 3502	Burglary/Breaking and Entering	2396	0.088	0.083	0.004		19	0.063
18 PaCS 3921	All Other Larceny	1768	0.060	0.083	-0.024	***	31	0.103
18 PaCS 2502	Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter	603	0.013	0.059	-0.046	***	14	0.047
18 PaCS 6105	Gun law violations	1430	0.052	0.049	0.003		17	0.057
18 PaCS 6106	Gun law violations	1341	0.051	0.037	0.014	***	9	0.030
18 PaCS 3925	Stolen Property Offenses	810	0.031	0.024	0.006	**	4	0.013
75 PaCS 3802	Driving Under the Influence	279	0.009	0.015	-0.006	***	4	0.013
18 PaCS 3922	All Other Larceny	198	0.006	0.014	-0.008	***	3	0.010
18 PaCS 3304	Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property	277	0.010	0.011	-0.001		4	0.013
18 PaCS 3929	Shoplifting	678	0.028	0.010	0.018	***	1	0.003
18 PaCS 4911	Obstruction of Justice	49	0.000	0.009	-0.009	***	2	0.007
18 PaCS 2701	Simple Assault	116	0.003	0.008	-0.005	***	4	0.013
35 PaCS 780-113_A16	Drug Possession	78	0.002	0.007	-0.005	***	1	0.003
18 PaCS 2706	Intimidation	82	0.002	0.007	-0.004	***	3	0.010
18 PaCS 5123	Contraband	134	0.005	0.005	0.000		2	0.007
18 PaCS 4915_A1	Obstruction of Justice	154	0.006	0.004	0.002		1	0.003
18 PaCS 3301	Arson	79	0.003	0.004	-0.002		1	0.003
18 PaCS 3503	Trespass of Real Property	140	0.005	0.004	0.001		2	0.007
18 PaCS 4953	Obstruction of Justice	68	0.002	0.004	-0.002		1	0.003
18 PaCS 3702_A	Robbery	59	0.002	0.003	-0.001		1	0.003
18 PaCS 5121	Obstruction of Justice	218	0.009	0.003	0.006	***	1	0.003
23 PaCS 6114_A	Harassment	29	0.001	0.003	-0.002	***	2	0.007
18 PaCS 4101	Counterfeiting/Forgery	66	0.002	0.003	-0.001		1	0.003
18 PaCS 13	NA	37	0.001	0.003	-0.002		2	0.007
18 PaCS 4304	Family Offenses, Nonviolent	52	0.002	0.003	-0.001		1	0.003
18 PaCS 4120	Fraud Offenses	107	0.004	0.002	0.002		1	0.003
18 PaCS 5111	Stolen Property Offenses	20	0.000	0.002	-0.002	**	1	0.003
75 PaCS 3735.1	Aggravated Assault	56	0.002	0.002	0.000		1	0.003
18 PaCS 4119	Counterfeiting/Forgery	46	0.002	0.002	0.000		1	0.003
75 PaCS 3742	Negligent Manslaughter	25	0.001	0.001	-0.001		1	0.003
18 PaCS 3503_B	Trespass of Real Property	8	0.000	0.001	-0.001		1	0.003
75 PaCS 3733	Other-Traffic	41	0.002	0.001	0.000		1	0.003
18 PaCS 3926	All Other Larceny	7	0.000	0.001	-0.001		1	0.003
18 PaCS 4915_A2	Other	32	0.001	0.001	0.001		1	0.003
18 PaCS 2703.1	Simple Assault	30	0.001	0.001	0.001		1	0.003
18 PaCS 5902_E	Purchasing Prostitution	4	0.000	0.001	-0.001		1	0.003
18 PaCS 2716	Other weapon law violations	1	NA	0.000	NA		1	0.003
18 PaCS 6110.2	Gun law violations	6	0.000	0.000	0.000		1	0.003
* Sample is created by randomly selecting 300 cases from those where we do not observe plea offers
† This table lists the offense code breakdown of cases in the sample, as well as the breakdown for those particular offenses observed in the plea offer data and not observed in the plea offer data.
‡ The ‘Difference’ column is the difference between the composition for a particular offense in the plea offer data and the missing data. The ‘Significance’ column denotes if the difference is significant at 0.001, 0.01 or 0.05 level.

Demographic Summary Statistics in Plea Sample

						Random Sample of 300 Cases
Descriptive	Cases Eligible for a Plea	% Plea Offer Data	% Missing	Difference	Significance	Cases	% of Cases
Race
Black	17974	0.647	0.671	-0.024	***	198	0.660
White	8346	0.307	0.284	0.024	***	87	0.290
Unknown/Unreported	805	0.030	0.026	0.004		6	0.020
Asian/Pacific Islander	409	0.014	0.018	-0.004		8	0.027
Native American/Alaskan Native	18	0.001	0.001	0.000		1	0.003
Gender
Male	23658	0.853	0.879	-0.025	***	266	0.887
Female	3895	0.146	0.120	0.026	***	34	0.113
Age Group
18-25	9373	0.329	0.384	-0.055	***	128	0.427
26-30	4993	0.182	0.179	0.003		43	0.143
31-35	3776	0.140	0.123	0.017	***	31	0.103
36-40	2748	0.102	0.092	0.010		29	0.097
41-50	4085	0.151	0.135	0.016	**	45	0.150
51-60	2086	0.078	0.068	0.010		20	0.067
61+	472	0.017	0.016	0.001		2	0.007
less than 18	23	0.000	0.002	-0.002	**	2	0.007
* Sample is created by randomly selecting 300 cases from those where we do not observe plea offers
† This table lists breakdowns of demographic descriptives of cases in the sample, as well as the breakdown for those particular descriptives observed in the plea offer data and not observed in the plea offer data.
‡ The ‘Difference’ column is the difference between the composition for a particular descriptive in the plea offer data and the missing data. The ‘Significance’ column denotes if the difference is significant at 0.001, 0.01 or 0.05 level.

Case Characteristics Summary Statistics in Plea Sample

						Random Sample of 300 Cases
Descriptive	Cases Eligible for a Plea	% Plea Offer Data	% Missing	Difference	Significance	Cases	% of Cases
Charge Grade
F	10845	0.418	0.292	0.125	***	92	0.307
F1	5808	0.199	0.261	-0.063	***	76	0.253
F3	5027	0.184	0.177	0.007		48	0.160
F2	3855	0.142	0.132	0.010		51	0.170
M1	742	0.022	0.045	-0.023	***	13	0.043
H	409	0.009	0.037	-0.028	***	5	0.017
M	427	0.013	0.026	-0.014	***	7	0.023
M2	275	0.008	0.018	-0.010	***	6	0.020
M3	98	0.003	0.005	-0.002		1	0.003
Disposition
S	64	0.002	0.002	0.000		1	0.003
Pre-Trial Guilty Plea/Nolo	6758	0.239	0.269	-0.029	***	79	0.263
Pre-Trial Dismissed/Withdrawn/Etc	903	0.031	0.042	-0.011	***	15	0.050
Pre-Trial Diversion	204	0.006	0.011	-0.005	**	3	0.010
Pre-Trial Guilty	77	0.002	0.008	-0.007	***	4	0.013
Pre-Trial Other	33	0.001	0.002	-0.001		1	0.003
Trial Guilty Plea/Nolo	8341	0.297	0.327	-0.030	***	95	0.317
Trial Dismissed/Withdrawn/Etc	5601	0.213	0.162	0.052	***	53	0.177
Jury Trial Guilty	931	0.029	0.052	-0.023	***	12	0.040
Waiver Trial Guilty	1832	0.072	0.045	0.026	***	16	0.053
Waiver Trial Not Guilty/Acquittal	1428	0.057	0.031	0.025	***	8	0.027
Jury Trial Not Guilty/Acquittal	620	0.021	0.028	-0.006		11	0.037
Trial Non-Disposition	323	0.012	0.009	0.004		2	0.007
Trial Guilty	79	0.003	0.004	-0.002		1	0.003
* Sample is created by randomly selecting 300 cases from those where we do not observe plea offers
† This table lists breakdowns of offense severity and disposition of cases in the sample, as well as the breakdown for those particular descriptives observed in the plea offer data and not observed in the plea offer data.
‡ The ‘Difference’ column is the difference between the composition for a particular descriptive in the plea offer data and the missing data. The ‘Significance’ column denotes if the difference is significant at 0.001 (), 0.01() or 0.05() level.

5.2 B: Non-PreTrial ADAs

[[Insert Table with Top offenses handled by Non-PreTrial ADAs]]

[[Insert Table with average sentences for Non-PreTrial ADAs and Sample]]

5.3 C: “Trial Penalty” Robustness Checks

[[Description of Robustness Checks]]

1. Removing VOPs
2. Including Non-PreTrial ADAs

Regression Results Trial Penalty

	Sample Data without VOPs			Include Non-PreTrial Cases
	Incarceration Minimum	Incarceration Maximum	Probation	Incarceration Minimum	Incarceration Maximum	Probation
(Intercept)	−8.693***	−16.049***	0.195	−8.395***	−15.253***	−0.320
	(1.996)	(4.007)	(1.606)	(1.951)	(3.855)	(1.494)
trial	6.464***	11.668***	−3.353***	5.863***	10.376***	−2.851***
	(0.346)	(0.716)	(0.409)	(0.349)	(0.724)	(0.428)
1	0.819***	2.917***	−2.951***	0.757***	2.751***	−2.846***
	(0.228)	(0.508)	(0.398)	(0.213)	(0.486)	(0.408)
2	1.816***	5.514***	−2.577***	1.910***	5.820***	−2.282***
	(0.230)	(0.513)	(0.448)	(0.240)	(0.535)	(0.470)
3	3.279***	8.631***	−2.074**	3.661***	9.768***	−2.008**
	(0.374)	(0.818)	(0.637)	(0.394)	(0.860)	(0.668)
4	3.849***	9.886***	−3.615***	3.980***	10.196***	−3.017***
	(0.367)	(0.799)	(0.697)	(0.349)	(0.744)	(0.713)
5	4.779***	11.713***	−0.910	4.688***	11.741***	−1.088
	(0.433)	(0.909)	(0.762)	(0.419)	(0.862)	(0.769)
REVOC	20.898***	41.711***	−11.625*	17.551***	34.752***	−10.966+
	(3.665)	(7.727)	(4.680)	(4.091)	(8.854)	(5.604)
RFEL	6.684***	15.056***	−3.045**	6.343***	14.415***	−2.118+
	(0.595)	(1.320)	(1.026)	(0.605)	(1.321)	(1.092)
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	−0.546	−1.001	4.091***	−0.321	−0.613	3.961***
	(0.448)	(0.975)	(0.702)	(0.471)	(1.020)	(0.730)
Driving Under the Influence	−1.111*	0.010	−5.987***	−1.160*	0.108	−4.678***
	(0.562)	(1.325)	(1.296)	(0.567)	(1.391)	(1.403)
Drug Possession	0.895	1.898	0.763	1.224	2.808	2.493
	(0.904)	(2.226)	(2.642)	(1.101)	(2.739)	(2.956)
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	1.706***	2.746**	2.723***	1.915***	3.063***	3.207***
	(0.408)	(0.875)	(0.638)	(0.428)	(0.917)	(0.669)
Murder/Manslaughter	11.657***	26.896***	−4.532*	12.505***	28.449***	−3.152
	(1.788)	(3.956)	(2.275)	(2.283)	(5.042)	(2.939)
Obstruction of Justice	−0.320	−0.611	−5.803***	0.306	1.132	−7.283***
	(0.483)	(1.083)	(1.058)	(0.484)	(1.105)	(1.187)
Other	−0.915	−2.457	3.760**	−0.549	−1.505	3.528**
	(0.755)	(1.576)	(1.189)	(0.832)	(1.722)	(1.251)
Other Persons	0.845	0.342	9.083***	0.906	0.278	9.659***
	(0.797)	(1.726)	(2.181)	(0.823)	(1.799)	(2.422)
Property	−0.512	−1.348+	4.212***	−0.274	−0.765	4.143***
	(0.369)	(0.794)	(0.621)	(0.384)	(0.826)	(0.653)
Prostitution	−1.991+	−3.902	−0.443	−0.915	−1.548	−0.576
	(1.073)	(2.438)	(3.611)	(1.048)	(2.481)	(3.624)
Public Order	−0.172	0.459	0.041	−0.122	0.271	0.907
	(0.525)	(1.259)	(1.071)	(0.488)	(1.091)	(1.135)
Rape/Sex Offense	−3.650*	−10.683**	24.376***	−2.716	−8.657*	24.921***
	(1.592)	(3.270)	(2.623)	(1.708)	(3.477)	(2.827)
Robbery	1.502*	4.376***	1.522*	1.766**	5.073***	1.510+
	(0.599)	(1.266)	(0.772)	(0.615)	(1.302)	(0.808)
Shoplifting	−0.316	1.021	4.809***	−0.212	1.221+	5.387***
	(0.307)	(0.687)	(0.663)	(0.313)	(0.703)	(0.684)
Simple Assault	−0.178	−0.573	−4.174	0.076	0.376	−4.138
	(1.112)	(2.314)	(2.609)	(1.266)	(2.610)	(2.994)
Weapons	0.693	0.562	0.898	1.067+	1.133	0.863
	(0.521)	(1.114)	(0.789)	(0.566)	(1.207)	(0.847)
age_group26-30	2.226***	4.657***	−0.523	2.052***	4.303***	−0.166
	(0.213)	(0.473)	(0.400)	(0.214)	(0.472)	(0.415)
age_group31-35	3.501***	7.502***	−1.746***	3.237***	6.946***	−1.334**
	(0.249)	(0.545)	(0.439)	(0.246)	(0.541)	(0.455)
age_group36-40	3.858***	8.743***	−1.699***	3.568***	8.187***	−1.318*
	(0.321)	(0.720)	(0.507)	(0.294)	(0.679)	(0.528)
age_group41-50	4.405***	9.552***	−1.212**	4.129***	9.114***	−1.078*
	(0.280)	(0.597)	(0.443)	(0.274)	(0.589)	(0.465)
age_group51-60	3.419***	7.264***	−0.377	3.527***	7.652***	−0.287
	(0.337)	(0.744)	(0.592)	(0.353)	(0.785)	(0.623)
age_group61+	3.455+	7.450+	1.630	4.101+	9.049+	1.384
	(1.911)	(3.949)	(1.245)	(2.308)	(4.756)	(1.361)
age_groupless than 18	3.023	8.353	3.776	−0.810	−4.704+	5.925
	(2.365)	(8.057)	(7.151)	(1.543)	(2.785)	(5.635)
Male	3.247***	7.548***	−1.512***	3.039***	7.115***	−1.294***
	(0.173)	(0.388)	(0.360)	(0.178)	(0.401)	(0.377)
Unreported/Unknown	4.203	9.126+	−11.090*	2.002	2.786	−5.932
	(2.888)	(5.379)	(5.467)	(1.539)	(3.045)	(3.979)
Num.Obs.	21943	21943	21943	19145	19145	19145
R2	0.467	0.460	0.156	0.440	0.437	0.161
R2 Adj.	0.466	0.459	0.154	0.439	0.435	0.159
Std.Errors	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1
a Traditional method of analyzing ‘trial penalty’ assumes sentences are continuous and coefficients can be interpreted as a case resolving in a jury or waiver trial increases incarceration by X number of months.
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Results Trial Penalty

	Sample Data without VOPs				Include Non-PreTrial Cases
	any incarceration	6 months	1 year	2 years	any incarceration	6 months	1 year	2 years
(Intercept)	−0.153	−0.334*	−0.239**	−0.138**	−0.176	−0.344*	−0.239**	−0.133**
	(0.128)	(0.160)	(0.076)	(0.051)	(0.124)	(0.158)	(0.075)	(0.049)
trial	0.078***	0.108***	0.120***	0.109***	0.068***	0.105***	0.115***	0.105***
	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.006)
1	0.054***	0.029***	0.027***	0.019***	0.056***	0.033***	0.026***	0.021***
	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.005)
2	0.224***	0.153***	0.033***	0.014*	0.239***	0.163***	0.033***	0.015*
	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.006)
3	0.290***	0.213***	0.075***	0.037***	0.322***	0.234***	0.081***	0.040***
	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.009)	(0.012)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.010)
4	0.340***	0.269***	0.109***	0.043***	0.367***	0.288***	0.105***	0.038***
	(0.013)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.013)	(0.016)	(0.014)	(0.010)
5	0.366***	0.282***	0.120***	0.060***	0.399***	0.304***	0.117***	0.058***
	(0.011)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.012)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.011)
REVOC	0.154***	0.161***	0.365***	0.332***	0.162***	0.166***	0.325***	0.314***
	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.041)	(0.049)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.057)	(0.064)
RFEL	0.353***	0.328***	0.205***	0.075***	0.375***	0.342***	0.198***	0.072***
	(0.014)	(0.017)	(0.018)	(0.013)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.020)	(0.014)
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	−0.050***	−0.016	−0.009	−0.017+	−0.055***	−0.017	0.000	−0.013
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.009)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.011)	(0.009)
Driving Under the Influence	0.359***	−0.153***	0.022	0.007	0.391***	−0.175***	0.013	0.008
	(0.030)	(0.029)	(0.021)	(0.012)	(0.033)	(0.030)	(0.020)	(0.012)
Drug Possession	−0.082	−0.040	0.087+	0.043	−0.080	−0.054	0.091	0.058
	(0.071)	(0.059)	(0.050)	(0.029)	(0.081)	(0.068)	(0.059)	(0.037)
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	−0.057***	0.034**	0.055***	0.043***	−0.048***	0.047***	0.061***	0.042***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.009)
Murder/Manslaughter	0.083***	0.085***	0.128***	0.160***	0.086***	0.090**	0.132***	0.163***
	(0.018)	(0.020)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.024)	(0.027)	(0.034)	(0.033)
Obstruction of Justice	0.015	0.032	0.026	−0.011	0.053*	0.076**	0.044*	−0.013
	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.017)	(0.010)	(0.025)	(0.026)	(0.019)	(0.010)
Other	−0.059*	−0.025	−0.038*	−0.023	−0.043	−0.014	−0.027	−0.019
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.019)	(0.016)
Other Persons	0.026	0.088+	0.048	0.022	0.012	0.080	0.044	0.031
	(0.049)	(0.048)	(0.034)	(0.028)	(0.053)	(0.050)	(0.035)	(0.032)
Property	−0.150***	−0.103***	0.009	0.017*	−0.133***	−0.089***	0.017+	0.019*
	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.008)
Prostitution	−0.234**	−0.175*	−0.038+	−0.003	−0.187*	−0.135	−0.023	0.009
	(0.079)	(0.077)	(0.020)	(0.014)	(0.092)	(0.090)	(0.020)	(0.013)
Public Order	0.014	−0.086***	0.002	0.015	0.000	−0.080***	0.003	0.018+
	(0.030)	(0.023)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.031)	(0.024)	(0.013)	(0.011)
Rape/Sex Offense	−0.346***	−0.257***	−0.054	−0.016	−0.311***	−0.226***	−0.038	−0.002
	(0.065)	(0.057)	(0.038)	(0.032)	(0.069)	(0.060)	(0.040)	(0.033)
Robbery	0.038**	0.047***	0.050***	0.050***	0.040**	0.050***	0.059***	0.051***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.010)
Shoplifting	−0.039*	−0.108***	−0.014+	0.012*	−0.038*	−0.108***	−0.007	0.012*
	(0.017)	(0.014)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.018)	(0.015)	(0.008)	(0.006)
Simple Assault	−0.010	0.008	0.042	−0.008	0.028	0.027	0.059	−0.009
	(0.062)	(0.056)	(0.046)	(0.026)	(0.067)	(0.060)	(0.055)	(0.031)
Weapons	0.009	0.056***	0.022+	0.027*	0.019	0.075***	0.040**	0.034**
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.012)
age_group26-30	0.068***	0.074***	0.056***	0.036***	0.075***	0.078***	0.053***	0.032***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)
age_group31-35	0.118***	0.118***	0.078***	0.048***	0.129***	0.124***	0.080***	0.044***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.007)	(0.006)
age_group36-40	0.136***	0.133***	0.085***	0.046***	0.148***	0.143***	0.086***	0.041***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.006)
age_group41-50	0.160***	0.151***	0.090***	0.052***	0.176***	0.162***	0.090***	0.048***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.006)
age_group51-60	0.130***	0.136***	0.068***	0.038***	0.147***	0.149***	0.077***	0.041***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.008)
age_group61+	0.038	0.065**	0.012	0.011	0.061*	0.073**	0.025	0.015
	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.017)	(0.014)
age_groupless than 18	0.074	0.131	0.342***	0.179**	−0.233+	−0.142	0.163	−0.017
	(0.087)	(0.087)	(0.099)	(0.068)	(0.121)	(0.136)	(0.181)	(0.014)
Male	0.146***	0.122***	0.078***	0.051***	0.150***	0.121***	0.072***	0.045***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.004)
Unreported/Unknown	0.077	0.044	0.079	0.083+	−0.082*	0.023	0.079*	0.048
	(0.131)	(0.085)	(0.050)	(0.048)	(0.032)	(0.045)	(0.035)	(0.032)
Num.Obs.	21943	21943	21943	21943	19145	19145	19145	19145
R2	0.334	0.341	0.287	0.348	0.344	0.340	0.270	0.332
R2 Adj.	0.333	0.339	0.286	0.347	0.342	0.338	0.268	0.330
Std.Errors	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1
a Assuming sentences are discontinuous, coefficients can be interpreted as a case resolving in a jury or waiver trial increases probability of incarceration by X%.
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Results Trial Penalty

	Sample Data without VOPs				Include Non-PreTrial Cases
	any incarceration	1 year	2 years	5 years	any incarceration	1 year	2 years	5 years
(Intercept)	−0.153	−0.203	−0.242**	−0.112**	−0.176	−0.209+	−0.242**	−0.107**
	(0.128)	(0.130)	(0.077)	(0.040)	(0.124)	(0.126)	(0.076)	(0.037)
trial	0.078***	0.065***	0.120***	0.087***	0.068***	0.056***	0.115***	0.083***
	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.006)
1	0.054***	0.055***	0.028***	0.016***	0.056***	0.057***	0.027***	0.016***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.005)
2	0.224***	0.223***	0.034***	0.016**	0.239***	0.238***	0.033***	0.014*
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.006)
3	0.290***	0.296***	0.076***	0.035***	0.322***	0.326***	0.082***	0.038***
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.009)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.009)
4	0.340***	0.342***	0.113***	0.026**	0.367***	0.369***	0.109***	0.020*
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.008)
5	0.366***	0.367***	0.122***	0.041***	0.399***	0.400***	0.119***	0.036***
	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.014)	(0.010)
REVOC	0.154***	0.156***	0.366***	0.337***	0.162***	0.164***	0.326***	0.307***
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.041)	(0.054)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.057)	(0.069)
RFEL	0.353***	0.353***	0.205***	0.063***	0.375***	0.375***	0.196***	0.059***
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.019)	(0.013)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.020)	(0.013)
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	−0.050***	−0.027*	−0.012	−0.012	−0.055***	−0.034*	−0.003	−0.006
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.011)	(0.009)
Driving Under the Influence	0.359***	−0.186***	0.030	0.019	0.391***	−0.211***	0.015	0.015
	(0.030)	(0.031)	(0.023)	(0.014)	(0.033)	(0.034)	(0.022)	(0.013)
Drug Possession	−0.082	−0.083	0.084+	0.051	−0.080	−0.076	0.086	0.069+
	(0.071)	(0.063)	(0.050)	(0.032)	(0.081)	(0.074)	(0.059)	(0.041)
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	−0.057***	−0.021+	0.051***	0.041***	−0.048***	−0.015	0.057***	0.041***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.008)
Murder/Manslaughter	0.083***	0.073***	0.127***	0.162***	0.086***	0.077**	0.130***	0.165***
	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.024)	(0.025)	(0.034)	(0.033)
Obstruction of Justice	0.015	−0.002	0.064***	−0.006	0.053*	0.038	0.094***	−0.003
	(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.018)	(0.009)	(0.025)	(0.026)	(0.022)	(0.009)
Other	−0.059*	−0.047+	−0.037*	−0.031*	−0.043	−0.034	−0.025	−0.025+
	(0.028)	(0.027)	(0.018)	(0.013)	(0.030)	(0.029)	(0.020)	(0.013)
Other Persons	0.026	0.043	0.047	−0.009	0.012	0.025	0.042	−0.004
	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.034)	(0.022)	(0.053)	(0.052)	(0.035)	(0.025)
Property	−0.150***	−0.123***	0.007	0.017*	−0.133***	−0.110***	0.014	0.021**
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.009)	(0.007)
Prostitution	−0.234**	−0.186*	−0.040+	0.004	−0.187*	−0.142	−0.025	0.017
	(0.079)	(0.079)	(0.020)	(0.012)	(0.092)	(0.091)	(0.020)	(0.011)
Public Order	0.014	−0.093***	0.004	0.021+	0.000	−0.088**	0.005	0.025*
	(0.030)	(0.026)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.031)	(0.027)	(0.013)	(0.012)
Rape/Sex Offense	−0.346***	−0.344***	−0.032	−0.049*	−0.311***	−0.312***	−0.013	−0.041+
	(0.065)	(0.061)	(0.045)	(0.022)	(0.069)	(0.065)	(0.049)	(0.024)
Robbery	0.038**	0.052***	0.048***	0.046***	0.040**	0.054***	0.057***	0.049***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.010)
Shoplifting	−0.039*	−0.014	−0.015*	0.010*	−0.038*	−0.013	−0.008	0.012*
	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.008)	(0.005)
Simple Assault	−0.010	0.000	0.041	−0.019	0.028	0.033	0.058	−0.021
	(0.062)	(0.061)	(0.046)	(0.018)	(0.067)	(0.065)	(0.055)	(0.021)
Weapons	0.009	0.021	0.021+	0.022*	0.019	0.030*	0.037**	0.028*
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.012)
age_group26-30	0.068***	0.065***	0.056***	0.032***	0.075***	0.072***	0.053***	0.028***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.005)
age_group31-35	0.118***	0.112***	0.078***	0.043***	0.129***	0.121***	0.080***	0.040***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.006)
age_group36-40	0.136***	0.137***	0.085***	0.044***	0.148***	0.147***	0.086***	0.040***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.006)
age_group41-50	0.160***	0.156***	0.090***	0.043***	0.176***	0.171***	0.090***	0.039***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.005)
age_group51-60	0.130***	0.128***	0.070***	0.033***	0.147***	0.145***	0.079***	0.034***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.007)
age_group61+	0.038	0.040	0.010	0.008	0.061*	0.060*	0.023	0.011
	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.015)	(0.012)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.017)	(0.013)
age_groupless than 18	0.074	0.081	0.340***	0.131+	−0.233+	−0.228+	0.163	−0.007
	(0.087)	(0.089)	(0.100)	(0.077)	(0.121)	(0.126)	(0.184)	(0.010)
Male	0.146***	0.141***	0.079***	0.042***	0.150***	0.145***	0.072***	0.037***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.003)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.005)	(0.004)
Unreported/Unknown	0.077	0.090	0.074	0.084	−0.082*	−0.066*	0.080*	0.036
	(0.131)	(0.132)	(0.052)	(0.053)	(0.032)	(0.031)	(0.034)	(0.026)
Num.Obs.	21943	21943	21943	21943	19145	19145	19145	19145
R2	0.334	0.349	0.284	0.335	0.344	0.356	0.267	0.317
R2 Adj.	0.333	0.347	0.282	0.333	0.342	0.354	0.265	0.315
Std.Errors	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1
a Assuming sentences are discontinuous, coefficients can be interpreted as a case resolving in a jury or waiver trial increases probability of incarceration by X%.
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Results Trial Penalty

	Sample Data without VOPs			Include Non-PreTrial Cases
	any probation	3 years	5 years	any probation	3 years	5 years
(Intercept)	1.000***	0.095	−0.151***	1.000***	0.083	−0.158***
	(0.000)	(0.148)	(0.020)	(0.000)	(0.145)	(0.022)
trial	0.000	−0.069***	0.009	0.000	−0.062***	0.016*
	(0.000)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.008)
1	0.000	−0.026**	−0.043***	0.000	−0.022*	−0.037***
	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.008)
2	0.000	−0.040***	−0.047***	0.000	−0.033**	−0.039***
	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.011)	(0.009)
3	0.000	−0.042**	−0.016	0.000	−0.039**	−0.017
	(0.000)	(0.014)	(0.012)	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.012)
4	0.000	−0.058***	−0.043***	0.000	−0.039*	−0.040**
	(0.000)	(0.016)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.017)	(0.013)
5	0.000	−0.032*	−0.036**	0.000	−0.031+	−0.035*
	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.016)	(0.014)
REVOC	0.000	−0.170**	−0.102	0.000	−0.162*	−0.146*
	(0.000)	(0.065)	(0.064)	(0.000)	(0.080)	(0.072)
RFEL	0.000	−0.048*	−0.043*	0.000	−0.033	−0.031+
	(0.000)	(0.020)	(0.017)	(0.000)	(0.021)	(0.018)
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	0.000	0.148***	0.012	0.000	0.143***	0.013
	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.016)	(0.013)
Driving Under the Influence	0.000	−0.035	−0.055**	0.000	−0.008	−0.044+
	(0.000)	(0.034)	(0.020)	(0.000)	(0.037)	(0.023)
Drug Possession	0.000	0.021	0.060	0.000	0.040	0.089
	(0.000)	(0.066)	(0.059)	(0.000)	(0.083)	(0.077)
Drug PWID, Manufacturing, Sales	0.000	0.129***	0.005	0.000	0.140***	0.010
	(0.000)	(0.014)	(0.012)	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.013)
Murder/Manslaughter	0.000	−0.022	0.008	0.000	−0.044	0.037
	(0.000)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.000)	(0.041)	(0.041)
Obstruction of Justice	0.000	−0.046+	−0.063***	0.000	−0.077**	−0.073***
	(0.000)	(0.024)	(0.018)	(0.000)	(0.027)	(0.020)
Other	0.000	0.133***	0.033	0.000	0.126***	0.027
	(0.000)	(0.027)	(0.025)	(0.000)	(0.030)	(0.027)
Other Persons	0.000	0.229***	0.142**	0.000	0.225***	0.155**
	(0.000)	(0.041)	(0.052)	(0.000)	(0.044)	(0.056)
Property	0.000	0.170***	0.027*	0.000	0.175***	0.018
	(0.000)	(0.014)	(0.012)	(0.000)	(0.016)	(0.013)
Prostitution	0.000	0.022	−0.015	0.000	0.026	−0.084
	(0.000)	(0.096)	(0.074)	(0.000)	(0.108)	(0.062)
Public Order	0.000	0.069*	−0.035*	0.000	0.085**	−0.030
	(0.000)	(0.030)	(0.017)	(0.000)	(0.032)	(0.019)
Rape/Sex Offense	0.000	0.304***	0.599***	0.000	0.303***	0.611***
	(0.000)	(0.031)	(0.051)	(0.000)	(0.034)	(0.055)
Robbery	0.000	0.078***	0.004	0.000	0.072***	0.004
	(0.000)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.013)
Shoplifting	0.000	0.244***	−0.005	0.000	0.257***	−0.003
	(0.000)	(0.020)	(0.012)	(0.000)	(0.021)	(0.012)
Simple Assault	0.000	−0.142*	−0.032	0.000	−0.145*	−0.007
	(0.000)	(0.059)	(0.048)	(0.000)	(0.062)	(0.057)
Weapons	0.000	0.136***	−0.007	0.000	0.137***	−0.007
	(0.000)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.000)	(0.017)	(0.016)
age_group26-30	0.000	−0.006	0.005	0.000	−0.001	0.011
	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.008)
age_group31-35	0.000	−0.023*	0.001	0.000	−0.017	0.007
	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.009)
age_group36-40	0.000	−0.037***	−0.004	0.000	−0.030*	−0.001
	(0.000)	(0.011)	(0.009)	(0.000)	(0.012)	(0.010)
age_group41-50	0.000	−0.031**	0.011	0.000	−0.028**	0.015+
	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.010)	(0.009)
age_group51-60	0.000	−0.005	0.040***	0.000	0.000	0.039***
	(0.000)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.000)	(0.013)	(0.012)
age_group61+	0.000	0.015	0.060*	0.000	−0.005	0.076**
	(0.000)	(0.025)	(0.023)	(0.000)	(0.028)	(0.026)
age_groupless than 18	0.000	0.187*	0.006	0.000	0.214***	0.023
	(0.000)	(0.091)	(0.118)	(0.000)	(0.040)	(0.245)
Male	0.000	−0.019*	−0.006	0.000	−0.017+	−0.005
	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.000)	(0.009)	(0.008)
Unreported/Unknown	0.000	−0.193	−0.187***	0.000	−0.290*	−0.135***
	(0.000)	(0.121)	(0.047)	(0.000)	(0.145)	(0.027)
Num.Obs.	21943	21943	21943	19145	19145	19145
R2		0.186	0.095		0.193	0.091
R2 Adj.		0.184	0.093		0.191	0.088
Std.Errors	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1	HC1
a Assuming sentences are discontinuous, coefficients can be interpreted as a case resolving in a jury or waiver trial increases probability of probation by X%.
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001