Forecast Report with Analog Years-Somalia OND

Introduction

This is the Somalia February Sorghum forecast report. The goal is to assist users in evaluating current forecasts in the context of past forecasts and to translate the forecast component into key assumptions about food security.

The report includes the following key components:

1. A verbal summary of assumptions based on the statistics in this forecast

2. Mean Area, Production, and Yield over the years 2010-2020:This provides context for interpreting the grain data

3. Historical Out of Sample Forecast Error Averaged Over a 10 Year+ Period. We show the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE).

4. Yield Forecast, (based on February 2022 Precip, NDVI, Et0 ) expressed as percent of mean yield over the period 2012 - 2022.

Assumption Statements

Average Forecast Error For This Point in the Season

At this point in the season historical forecast error, is on average, below 40% for the admin units used in the forecast.

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Admin Units Forecast to have Above or Below Average Yields

Of the admin units used in the forecast:

• 1 are forecast to be severely below average (<50% of average)
  
• 12 are forecast to be below average (< 90% of average)
  
• 3 are forecast to be average (between 90 to 110% of average)
  
• 2 are forecast to be above average (> 110% of average)

Averages are based on the most recent 10 year period of observed yields: (2010-2020)

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The forecast identifies severe yield issues (lowest on record) in the following Admin Unit 2-zones: Middle Juba-Bu’aale

The forecast identifies substantially below-average yields (among the lowest 3 on record) in the following Admin Unit 2-zones: Bay-Diinsoor, Bay-Qansax Dheere, Middle Juba-Bu’aale

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Summary Figures

Mean area, production, and yields for the years 2010-2020 .

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Out of Sample Forecast Error (MAPE)

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) calculated based on historical out of sample seasonal forecasts. Lower scores indicate greater accuracy. Forecasts are based on model type MODEL¹

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Yield Forecast for February 2022

Forecast values expressed as percent of Mean Yields over the Years 2010-2020 .

The figure shows predicted percent of mean (center) as well as lower (left) and higher (right) predicted percent of mean intervals.

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Static and Dynamic Version of Main Forecast

Roll over the polygon borders to get the district name and % of mean forecast value.

Static Version

This map shows the main % of mean forecast value along with district labels for reference.

Discrete Map

This map shows the main % of mean forecast binned into discrete values. Averages are based on the most recent 10 year period of observed yields: 2012 - 2022

This table shows the forecast percentage of mean values in the above table along with the mean yield values from the first figure.

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Table of Mean Yields and Predicted Percent of Mean Values

District	% of mean	% of mean (low)	% of mean (high)
Hargeysa	75	58	91
Gabiley	80	71	89
Jalalaqsi	58	44	71
Marka	72	44	100
Afgooye	82	49	114
Qoryooley	108	88	129
Wanla Weyn	115	94	137
Baydhabo	84	60	107
Buur Hakaba	95	58	132
Diinsoor	70	43	96
Qansax Dheere	80	51	109
Xudur	54	31	78
Tiyeglow	95	54	136
Waajid	79	33	125
Garbahaarey	130	122	138
Baardheere	78	46	111
Bu'aale	35	0	70
Saakow	61	22	101
Afmadow	71	54	88

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1. Extra/Extended Trees. A type of Random Forest Model↩︎