Brant brood site-fidelity model (multistate m-array version)

Gosling mass

Mean gosling mass over time:

Probability of site fidelity as a function of mass with a 1-year lag:

(Probabilities are posterior means)

Probability of site fidelity as a function of mass with no lag:

(Probabilities are posterior means)

Estimates for effect of mass on fidelity (1-year lag):

Parameter Estimates (\(\psi\), \(\phi\), and \(p\))

\(\psi\):

\(\phi\):

\(p\):

Model Notes

Specification Notes:

• \(p\) estimated for each site-year combination
• \(\psi\) and \(\phi\) smoothed with an autoregressive (lag 1) term
• Gosling mass with a one year lag as a covariate on the fidelity parameters

State Transition Matrix:

• \(\psi\) = transition probability, \(\phi\) = survival probability
  
• subscripts depict sites (T=Tutakoke, K=Kashtut, B=Bend Slough, H=Hock Slough, E=Emperor)
  
• rows: time = t, columns: time = t+1
  
• last row and column represent “dead” state

\(\left[\begin{array}{ccc} \psi_{TT}\phi_T & \psi_{TK}\phi_T & \psi_{TB}\phi_T & \psi_{TH}\phi_T & (1-\Sigma\psi_{T})\phi_T & 1-\phi_T\\ \psi_{KT}\phi_K & \psi_{KK}\phi_K & \psi_{KB}\phi_K & \psi_{KH}\phi_K & (1-\Sigma\psi_{K})\phi_K & 1-\phi_K\\ \psi_{BT}\phi_B & \psi_{BK}\phi_B & \psi_{BB}\phi_B & \psi_{BH}\phi_B & (1-\Sigma\psi_{B})\phi_B & 1-\phi_B\\ (1-\Sigma\psi_{H})\phi_H & \psi_{HK}\phi_H & \psi_{HB}\phi_H & \psi_{HH}\phi_H & \psi_{HE}\phi_H & 1-\phi_H\\ (1-\Sigma\psi_{E})\phi_E & \psi_{EK}\phi_E & \psi_{EB}\phi_E & \psi_{EB}\phi_E & \psi_{EE}\phi_E & 1-\phi_E\\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 1\\ \end{array}\right]\)

Site Delineations

(same as previous; aggregated labels from master file in parentheses):

• Tutakoke (Tutakoke, Camp)
  
• Kashtut (Kashtut)
  
• Bend Slough (Bend Slough, Lensink Pt, Lensink)
  
• Hock Slough (Hock Slough, Village Slough)
  
• Emperor (Emperor)