Introduction

Currently, widespread across media outlets, reporters and analysts are emphasizing the point that Russell Westbrook is not a good basketball player anymore. Recently, Westbrook has received harsh nicknames, such as “overrated” and “stat-padder” that defame the Hall-of-Fame level statistics and accolades he generates on a nightly and yearly basis, respectively.

Westbrook continues to earn the role as a scapegoat on any team that picks him up, as with the Houston Rockets, fans criticized Westbrook’s inability to shoot, despite it being a clear weakness to his - supposed - playstyle that favors aggression, hustle, and playmaking. In 2019, GM of the Houston Rockets, Daryl Morey, posed a revolutionary and controversial experiment that featured a “small-ball” offense, in which Westbrook could be surrounded by shooters to offset his mediocre shooting ability and high-level playmaking ability.

When Morey’s experiment failed, analysts began to doubt if Westbrook’s playstyle could positively impact an NBA team.

Findings

In this project, I analyzed Westbrook’s boxscore statistics - his points, assists, and rebounds and compared them with other point guards in the NBA. Then I compared Westbrook’s advanced stats - statistics that incorporate efficiency and usage percentage to properly estimate Westbrook’s true value on the court - with other point guards in the NBA. By this, I wanted to not only conclude whether or not Russell Westbrook deserves the title of “overrated”, but also decide if he’s efficient - therefore, his playtime generates positive statistics that can translate to team success.

Visualization 1

To the average or casual NBA fan, it may appear as if Russell Westbrook is a good-to-elite basketball player. From the looks of his basic statistics - the ones displayed on sites like ESPN.com and NBA.com - Russell Westbrook is a top 5 point guard in the league as his Points, Rebounds, and Assists all rank highly among point guards, with assists ranking at #1.

I used barcharts to illustrate how Westbrook ranks among point guards in these basic statistics. (Note: Russell Westbrook is represented as the Red Square, whereas the remaining 28 PGs out of the Top 29 PGs in the NBA are represented by black circles.)

Visualization 1.1

Bar Chart of Points Per Game Ranking Among Point Guards

Visualization #1.2

Bar Chart of Assists Per Game Ranking Among Point Guards

Visualization #1.3

Bar Chart of Rebounds Per Game Ranking Among Point Guards

Visualization #1.4

Bar Chart of Steals Per Game Ranking Among Point Guards

Visualization #1.5

Bar Chart of Blocks Per Game Ranking Among Point Guards

Visualization #2

Usage percentage (USG%) calculates the percentage of plays that end in a specific player recording a statistic - FGA (Field Goal Attempt), FTA (Free Throw Attempt), TOV (Turnover).

The formula, curtosy of basketball-reference.com, goes as follows, 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)).

When you compare Usage Percentage with statistics like True Shooting (TS%, a statistic that combines FG% and 3FG% and calculates efficiency in both fields), Assist Percentage (AST%) or Turnover Percentage (TOV%), you can get a grasp of whether a player playing on the court is beneficial to their team. A player with low shooting efficiency, low assist percentage, and high turnover percentage despite having a high usage percentage can be caustic to their team’s offense, as for many instances in a basketball game, they may make plays that hurt their team rather than help them.

By analyzing the three graphs that compare Westbrook to the top 29 NBA Point Guards (calculated by Usage Percentage and Minutes Played), you can clearly see that Westbrook’s statistics have all three of those correlations.

Visualization #2.1

Interactive Scatterplot of True Shooting % / Usage Percentage

Visualization #2.2

Interactive Scatterplot of Turnover % / Usage Percentage

Visualization #2.3

Interactive Scatterplot of Assist % / Usage Percentage

Visualization #2.4

Interactive Scatterplot of Rebound % / Minutes Per Game

Visualization #2.5

Interactive Scatterplot of Steal % / Minutes Per Game

Visualization #2.6

# Interactive Scatterplot of Block % / Minutes Per Game

Visualization #3

Interactive Pie Chart of Team PER

From the last groups of graphs, it is clear that Russell Westbrook is inefficient compared to other point guards in the NBA. However, it begs the question of whether or not Westbrook is outperformed by his own teammates as well, in terms of efficiency.

PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is a by-minute efficiency rating of a player’s performance. Each statistic on a box score is assigned a value, and in the calculation, all of the beneficial statistics are added up and all the negative statistics are subtracted. The sum of the values are divided by the number of minutes the player participates.

PER is one of the most popular advanced statistics, as it calculates each players’ statistics and incorporates a weight of how much time they are on the court. The average PER in the NBA is 15.

Using a pie chart, I calculated the sum of the Washington Wizard’s PER and divided it by each player. It is clear that Russell Westbrook, despite having one of the highest Usage Percentages in the NBA, his efficiency (calculated by PER) does not match up as well, showing he is an extremely ball-dominant point guard, whose efficiency is below-average.

Secondly, despite being the highest-player paid on the team - by far - , Russell Westbrook is still being outperformed by 5 other players on his own team on a nightly basis.

Visualization #4

Interactive Nested Donut Chart of Shot Distribution by Player

After analyzing statistics that calculate how Russell Westbrook’s efficiency in shooting and playmaking compare to his teammates and competitors, it is also important to analyze the percentage of shots attempted by the Wizards are taken by Westbrook.

Westbrook’s TS% and PER demonstrate that Russell is much less efficient than many of his competitors and teammates, but despite this, Westbrook still attempts the second most field goals on average. Westbrook’s poor efficiency yet high shooting quantities can demonstrate that the more Westbrook shoots the ball, he is negatively affecting his team, as he is less likely to score than his teammates, and in addition, he is also taking more opportunities to shoot away from his more efficient teammate.

Visualization #5

Heat Map of PER by Positions and Team

Comparing Westbrook’s efficiency to the rest of the league’ starters can demonstrate his true value to the Washington Wizards, as well. A heatmap is a perfect demonstration of how Westbrook compares to the rest of the league starters, with each column representing a team and each row representing a position. Westbrook is the Starting Point Guard (PG) for the Washington Wizards, so he sits at the top right of the graph with a slightly below average PER of a little less than 15 - League average is 15.

Conclusion

In reflection of my findings, it appears as if Westbrook’s negative efficiency can correlate to his high usage percentage and high shot percentage. While Westbrook is one of the highest-paid players in all of sports, there is no wonder that the Wizards play him as much as they do, despite his inefficiency.

However, it is evident that Westbrook’s inefficiency is not just bad - it’s one of the worst in the league. Westbrook’s true value cannot be represented by the mere counting statistics that are accumulated in a simple box score, as his inefficiency ratings strongly offset the positive statistics generated in the box score. In the example of Westbrook, we can see the value of calculating advanced stats, such as Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Usage Percentage (USG%), and True Shooting Percentage (TS%), as it gives us a completely different picture as analysts.

While NBA fans’ hatred towards Russell Westbrook may still be unproven by data, it is possible to draw conclusions based on his salary and usage. NBA fans may recognize his inefficiencies and see him as one of the most inefficient players in the league and also see that he is continually receiving some of the biggest contracts in NBA history and dislike him because of that.

In sum, the value of advanced metrics and statistics and its placement in basketball is undeniable: it’s essential to estimate players’ values and their performance.