Brant brood site-fidelity model (multistate m-array version)
08 February 2022
Data Notes
Mean gosling weights by site-year
These data are from the banding schedule files
The site-year combinations in this table that are marked “NaN” do not appear to have any gosling weights
The mean weights for these (almost) same site-year combinations appear to be used in Nicolai and Sedinger (2012) through 2007. The missing site-years here appear to correspond with the missing site-years presented in Figure 2 in that paper.
For missing weights, Nicholai and Sedinger (2012) imputed the mean weights from all other sites measured that year.
2016-2019 not included here
Do the site-years with no weight data appear to be correct here?
## Tutakoke Kashtut Bend Slough Hock Slough Emperor
## 1986 723.3542 737.8049 NaN 790.4545 NaN
## 1987 673.8462 710.2778 723.2000 695.7627 NaN
## 1988 648.3232 599.6867 NaN 748.9375 731.4706
## 1989 644.6809 828.4231 724.7736 684.3333 755.9091
## 1990 574.6681 651.1170 594.1765 678.9437 750.8333
## 1991 664.6923 665.0220 578.9474 701.0169 726.6129
## 1992 419.7234 479.1146 422.0000 513.5833 552.5556
## 1993 620.3279 618.3543 636.7778 615.4717 743.3095
## 1994 565.0337 670.6486 548.4259 747.3596 780.3333
## 1995 642.6574 806.3980 694.1944 733.0370 NaN
## 1996 646.3934 755.0995 619.7619 822.1111 997.5000
## 1997 739.7195 653.4783 758.5135 689.0984 811.6667
## 1998 430.7193 546.1856 504.6591 608.3908 537.0833
## 1999 557.8163 622.6423 528.6993 573.7736 603.3333
## 2000 485.5500 504.4000 436.1905 515.3250 630.8333
## 2001 NaN NaN NaN NaN 541.7391
## 2002 594.3590 NaN 666.8182 634.1270 761.0000
## 2003 627.1875 722.7273 NaN 599.0000 NaN
## 2004 684.3529 750.5556 706.8182 806.8750 NaN
## 2005 607.0513 617.4510 861.4706 772.1724 NaN
## 2006 564.7222 556.6134 600.6250 662.3913 NaN
## 2007 582.2667 697.1364 646.6081 616.8000 660.0000
## 2008 572.4138 542.0000 612.1364 645.5000 NaN
## 2009 436.9298 459.3889 450.5172 540.2500 441.1875
## 2010 550.3889 689.9730 698.7143 NaN NaN
## 2011 521.3125 526.7500 538.6250 NaN NaN
## 2012 417.6622 484.4586 505.6912 591.2000 NaN
## 2013 317.3125 511.2500 480.9000 NaN NaN
## 2014 615.2535 636.5172 586.7857 822.4167 NaN
## 2015 716.1724 698.4118 709.7895 496.8571 610.0000
Site Delineations
(same as previous; aggregated labels from master file in parentheses):
- Tutakoke (Tutakoke, Camp)
- Kashtut (Kashtut)
- Bend Slough (Bend Slough, Lensink Pt, Lensink)
- Hock Slough (Hock Slough, Village Slough)
- Emperor (Emperor)
Model Notes
Specification Notes:
- \(p\) estimated for each site-year combination
- \(\psi\) and \(\phi\) smoothed with an autoregressive (lag 1) term
State Transition Matrix:
- \(\psi\) = transition probability, \(\phi\) = survival probability
- subscripts depict sites (T=Tutakoke, K=Kashtut, B=Bend Slough, H=Hock Slough, E=Emperor)
- rows: time = t, columns: time = t+1
- last row and column represent “dead” state
\(\left[\begin{array}{ccc} \psi_{TT}\phi_T & \psi_{TK}\phi_T & \psi_{TB}\phi_T & \psi_{TH}\phi_T & (1-\Sigma\psi_{T})\phi_T & 1-\phi_T\\ \psi_{KT}\phi_K & \psi_{KK}\phi_K & \psi_{KB}\phi_K & \psi_{KH}\phi_K & (1-\Sigma\psi_{K})\phi_K & 1-\phi_K\\ \psi_{BT}\phi_B & \psi_{BK}\phi_B & \psi_{BB}\phi_B & \psi_{BH}\phi_B & (1-\Sigma\psi_{B})\phi_B & 1-\phi_B\\ (1-\Sigma\psi_{H})\phi_H & \psi_{HK}\phi_H & \psi_{HB}\phi_H & \psi_{HH}\phi_H & \psi_{HE}\phi_H & 1-\phi_H\\ (1-\Sigma\psi_{E})\phi_E & \psi_{EK}\phi_E & \psi_{EB}\phi_E & \psi_{EB}\phi_E & \psi_{EE}\phi_E & 1-\phi_E\\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 1\\ \end{array}\right]\)
Estimates
(2016-2019 not included)
\(\psi\):
\(\phi\):
\(p\):
