## Last Update:  2/13/2022

1 Data

#read data
dat <- sjlabelled::read_spss('./Data/PP2197B3.sav')

2 Variables

3 DV: US or China is important for national security(US=1, China=5)

3.1 Ordered Probit Models without US Intervention

  • Variables:
    • powerchina: Which country is more powerful in this region? U.S. or China? (China=5, US=1)
    • trade: Trade or sovereignty (trade = 1, otherwise=0)
    • twcnculture: Is Taiwan and Chinese culture very similiar? (very similiar=1)
    • iddiff: Chinese identity - Taiwanese identity (1-10)
    • twusculture: Do Taiwan and US share the same culture? (same culture=1)
    • uni: Independence/unification issue position (unification=6)
    • both: both Taiwanese and Chinese identity
    • taiwanese: exclusive Taiwanese identity
  • Four Models: 
    • Security alignment (q8)
Model 1: influence of China 
Model 2: influence of China + US intervention + Trade over sovereignty + Culture similarity + Identity difference + q13 (US Taiwan value similarities_
Model 3: influence of China + US intervention + Trade over sovereignty + Culture similarity +Identity difference + q13 + Unification + Both Taiwanese and Chinese + Taiwanese + Pan blue + Pan Green 
Model 4: influence of China + US intervention + Trade over sovereignty+Culture similarity +Identity difference + q13 + Unification + Both Taiwanese and Chinese + Taiwanese + Pan blue + Pan Green + Female + Age + Education
    Table 3.1: Four Models without US Intervention
    term estimate std.error statistic coef.type model
    powerchina 0.3974 0.0716 5.55170612619184 coefficient Model 4
    powerchina 0.3921 0.0697 5.6287261178872 coefficient Model 3
    powerchina 0.4497 0.0661 6.80398312223406 coefficient Model 2
    powerchina 0.6584 0.0557 11.8280660105728 coefficient Model 1
    trade 0.7460 0.1993 3.74371058951772 coefficient Model 4
    trade 0.7484 0.1978 3.78414011138899 coefficient Model 3
    trade 1.3006 0.1778 7.31573461113984 coefficient Model 2
    trade NA NA NA NA Model 1
    twcnculture -0.2809 0.1206 -2.3285510598154 coefficient Model 4
    twcnculture -0.2907 0.1170 -2.48543051452668 coefficient Model 3
    twcnculture -0.4385 0.1105 -3.96661551395587 coefficient Model 2
    twcnculture NA NA NA NA Model 1
    iddiff 0.0382 0.0209 1.82963798976528 coefficient Model 4
    iddiff 0.0392 0.0207 1.89685690113303 coefficient Model 3
    iddiff 0.0742 0.0192 3.85873022623645 coefficient Model 2
    iddiff NA NA NA NA Model 1
    twusculture 0.4661 0.1254 3.71739673447089 coefficient Model 4
    twusculture 0.4648 0.1255 3.70409430477735 coefficient Model 3
    twusculture 0.6629 0.1120 5.9172629212699 coefficient Model 2
    twusculture NA NA NA NA Model 1
    uni -0.0168 0.0631 -0.2657438321905 coefficient Model 4
    uni -0.0125 0.0629 -0.199017985806141 coefficient Model 3
    uni NA NA NA NA Model 2
    uni NA NA NA NA Model 1
    both -1.3716 0.6783 -2.02207179506701 coefficient Model 4
    both -1.3932 0.6724 -2.07203551164111 coefficient Model 3
    both NA NA NA NA Model 2
    both NA NA NA NA Model 1
    taiwanese -2.2852 0.6959 -3.2838327471956 coefficient Model 4
    taiwanese -2.3155 0.6876 -3.36747910505592 coefficient Model 3
    taiwanese NA NA NA NA Model 2
    taiwanese NA NA NA NA Model 1
    panblue 0.6962 0.2526 2.75594589931768 coefficient Model 4
    panblue 0.7021 0.2493 2.81596125426605 coefficient Model 3
    panblue NA NA NA NA Model 2
    panblue NA NA NA NA Model 1
    pangreen -1.0786 0.2162 -4.98949853592209 coefficient Model 4
    pangreen -1.0429 0.2125 -4.90798219909518 coefficient Model 3
    pangreen NA NA NA NA Model 2
    pangreen NA NA NA NA Model 1
    female 0.0235 0.1625 0.144794392189199 coefficient Model 4
    female NA NA NA NA Model 3
    female NA NA NA NA Model 2
    female NA NA NA NA Model 1
    Age -0.0024 0.0068 -0.351850933363379 coefficient Model 4
    Age NA NA NA NA Model 3
    Age NA NA NA NA Model 2
    Age NA NA NA NA Model 1
    education -0.0688 0.0842 -0.817303893512351 coefficient Model 4
    education NA NA NA NA Model 3
    education NA NA NA NA Model 2
    education NA NA NA NA Model 1
    NA -2.7128 1.0534 -2.57523214468927 scale Model 4
    NA -0.9585 1.0678 -0.897634851845932 scale Model 4
    NA -0.4196 1.0686 -0.392632739377892 scale Model 4
    NA -2.3825 0.8439 -2.82314364519705 scale Model 3
    NA -0.6516 0.8480 -0.768410329183669 scale Model 3
    NA -0.1100 0.8487 -0.129592016981947 scale Model 3
    NA 0.4242 0.4432 0.957196008521613 scale Model 2
    NA 1.9865 0.4576 4.34127133798623 scale Model 2
    NA 2.4728 0.4620 5.35217115335019 scale Model 2
    NA 0.5919 0.1674 3.53565641169327 scale Model 1
    NA 1.8917 0.1853 10.2108105969033 scale Model 1
    NA 2.3405 0.1939 12.0691010362883 scale Model 1 
    ## 
## Re-fitting to get Hessian
    Table 3.1: Model without US Intervention
    term estimate std.error statistic coef.type
    powerchina 0.3974 0.0575 6.9060 coefficient
    trade 0.7460 0.1646 4.5318 coefficient
    twcnculture -0.2809 0.1030 -2.7279 coefficient
    iddiff 0.0382 0.0178 2.1445 coefficient
    twusculture 0.4661 0.1064 4.3801 coefficient
    uni -0.0168 0.0602 -0.2788 coefficient
    both -1.3715 0.6098 -2.2492 coefficient
    taiwanese -2.2852 0.6164 -3.7074 coefficient
    panblue 0.6961 0.2124 3.2776 coefficient
    pangreen -1.0786 0.1793 -6.0143 coefficient
    female 0.0235 0.1449 0.1624 coefficient
    Age -0.0024 0.0056 -0.4326 coefficient
    education -0.0688 0.0681 -1.0105 coefficient
    US very important|US important -2.7130 0.8661 -3.1325 scale
    US important|US China same -0.9587 0.8618 -1.1124 scale
    US China same|China important -0.4197 0.8623 -0.4868 scale 
    ## Type not specified: Using simulation as n >= 500
## 
## Re-fitting to get Hessian
        mean     2.5%  97.5%

    [1,] 0.03042 0.009104 0.0762 [2,] 0.11753 0.041828 0.2452 [3,] 0.07677 0.032804 0.1269 [4,] 0.41191 0.303389 0.4791 [5,] 0.36337 0.164890 0.6085

    ## Type not specified: Using simulation as n >= 500
## 
## Re-fitting to get Hessian
        mean     2.5%   97.5%

    [1,] 0.02126 0.006372 0.05102 [2,] 0.08748 0.029731 0.17834 [3,] 0.06090 0.025134 0.11063 [4,] 0.38404 0.248125 0.46822 [5,] 0.44633 0.230331 0.68336