2 Data

Reported income data was only widely available to us for a single date (2020-01-31). For Out of Time validation, we looked at a pre-period snapshot (2018-05-31), for which we did not have reported incomes and thus only consider population and variable stability. For Card 3 and Card 4, train/test exclude individuals with low reported incomes relative to their financial characteristics.

Pop. Observations Mean Income Median Income 10th Perc. 90th Perc. % Previously Scorable
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only
train 152,614 $12,637 $10,000 $4,000 $23,000 2.4%
test 65,406 $12,685 $10,000 $4,000 $23,112 2.4%
pre 221,623 NaN NA NA NA 0.0%
Card 2: Recent Inactive
train 177,161 $11,767 $10,356 $4,000 $20,440 8.5%
test 75,926 $11,765 $10,356 $4,000 $20,438 8.5%
pre 252,974 NaN NA NA NA 0.0%
Card 3: No Revolving Trade
train 352,979 $15,954 $12,000 $5,000 $30,000 70.7%
test 151,415 $16,041 $12,000 $5,000 $30,000 70.8%
pre 491,554 NaN NA NA NA 0.0%
Card 4: Revolving Trade
train 519,072 $35,076 $23,700 $10,150 $67,851 99.2%
test 222,724 $34,878 $23,400 $10,150 $67,274 99.1%
pre 753,981 NaN NA NA NA 0.0%
Total
train 1,201,826 $23,174 $15,448 $6,000 $50,014 65.1%
test 515,471 $23,125 $15,448 $6,000 $50,014 65.2%
pre 1,720,132 NaN NA NA NA 0.0%

3 Out of Time Testing

3.1 Population Stability

NOTE: “Development” refers to the entire population from the development period (excluding No Hits). Cards 3 and 4 [Excluded Individuals] due to an extreme mis-match between their reported income and financial products.

3.1.1 PSI vs Training Population

3.1.1.1 All population

Population PSI vs Train PSI vs Dev
Test 0.0001 NA
Dev. 0.0099 NA
Pre 0.0069 0.0171

3.1.1.2 Card 1: Telco-Only

Population PSI vs Train PSI vs Dev
Test 0.0002 NA
Dev. 0.0105 NA
Pre 0.1764 0.1710

3.1.1.3 Card 2: Recent inactive

Population PSI vs Train PSI vs Dev
Test 0.0002 NA
Dev. 0.0188 NA
Pre 0.0130 0.0227

3.1.1.4 Card 3: No Revolving

Population PSI vs Train PSI vs Dev
Test 0.0002 NA
Dev. 0.0943 NA
Pre 0.0915 0.0385

3.1.1.5 Card 4: Revolving

Population PSI vs Train PSI vs Dev
Test 0.0001 NA
Dev. 0.0041 NA
Pre 0.0112 0.0108

3.1.2 Score Distributions

Only predictions <= $100K are included, to highlight range where density is concentrated.

3.2 Segment Stability

NOTE: Counts for the “Develop” sample include both training and testing subsets, as well as individuals excluded from Cards 3 & 4 during the modeling process.

Card Dev. Count Pre Count Dev. % Pre % PSI
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only 218,020 221,623 11.9% 12.9% 0.0007
Card 2: Recent Inactive 253,105 252,977 13.9% 14.7% 0.0005
Card 3: No Revolving Trade 504,397 491,554 27.6% 28.6% 0.0003
Card 4: Revolving Trade 850,895 753,981 46.6% 43.8% 0.0017

3.3 Variable Stability

Stability is only considered within the segment using a given binning for a given variable. Comparison is for the entire Development population (train, test, and exclusions)

3.3.1 VSI Detail

Card 1: TelCo Trades Only

Card Feature Bin Dev. Count Pre Count Dev. % Pre % VSI
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only AT21S (-Inf,-5] 476 484 0.2% 0.2% 0.0000
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only AT21S (-5,88.5] 189,524 196,575 86.9% 88.7% 0.0004
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only AT21S (88.5,109.5] 10,224 14,546 4.7% 6.6% 0.0063
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only AT21S (109.5,157.5] 13,335 6,045 6.1% 2.7% 0.0274
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only AT21S (157.5, Inf] 4,461 3,973 2.0% 1.8% 0.0003
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only BC01S (-Inf,0.5] 152,951 176,013 70.2% 79.4% 0.0115
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only BC01S (0.5,1.5] 33,412 25,542 15.3% 11.5% 0.0108
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only BC01S (1.5,2.5] 13,304 8,985 6.1% 4.1% 0.0084
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only BC01S (2.5, Inf] 18,353 11,083 8.4% 5.0% 0.0178
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only BI20S (-Inf,-5] 546 544 0.3% 0.2% 0.0000
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only BI20S (-5,-1] 149,503 174,627 68.6% 78.8% 0.0142
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only BI20S (-1,98.5] 29,809 23,042 13.7% 10.4% 0.0090
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only BI20S (98.5, Inf] 38,162 23,410 17.5% 10.6% 0.0351
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only G020S (-Inf,0.5] 97,415 99,086 44.7% 44.7% 0.0000
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only G020S (0.5,1.5] 76,421 86,362 35.1% 39.0% 0.0041
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only G020S (1.5,2.5] 28,988 26,206 13.3% 11.8% 0.0017
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only G020S (2.5, Inf] 15,196 9,969 7.0% 4.5% 0.0108
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-Inf,-2] 91,276 145,398 41.9% 65.6% 0.1066
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-2,454.5] 4,975 4,312 2.3% 1.9% 0.0005
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (454.5,1175.5] 34,958 24,244 16.0% 10.9% 0.0195
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (1175.5,1935.5] 30,340 23,414 13.9% 10.6% 0.0092
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (1935.5,2419.5] 13,304 7,605 6.1% 3.4% 0.0154
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (2419.5,2607.5] 4,217 2,072 1.9% 0.9% 0.0073
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (2607.5,3221.5] 10,632 5,717 4.9% 2.6% 0.0146
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (3221.5,4507.5] 12,638 4,793 5.8% 2.2% 0.0358
Card 1: TelCo Trades Only MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (4507.5, Inf] 15,680 4,068 7.2% 1.8% 0.0731

Card 2: Recent Inactive

Card Feature Bin Dev. Count Pre Count Dev. % Pre % VSI
Card 2: Recent Inactive BC01S (-Inf,0.5] 144,535 144,807 57.1% 57.2% 0.0000
Card 2: Recent Inactive BC01S (0.5,1.5] 55,163 56,631 21.8% 22.4% 0.0002
Card 2: Recent Inactive BC01S (1.5,2.5] 22,730 22,758 9.0% 9.0% 0.0000
Card 2: Recent Inactive BC01S (2.5,3.5] 11,627 11,244 4.6% 4.4% 0.0000
Card 2: Recent Inactive BC01S (3.5,4.5] 6,690 6,306 2.6% 2.5% 0.0001
Card 2: Recent Inactive BC01S (4.5,5.5] 4,008 3,732 1.6% 1.5% 0.0001
Card 2: Recent Inactive BC01S (5.5, Inf] 8,334 7,496 3.3% 3.0% 0.0003
Card 2: Recent Inactive BI20S (-Inf,-5] 897 1,257 0.4% 0.5% 0.0005
Card 2: Recent Inactive BI20S (-5,-1] 125,336 135,643 49.5% 53.6% 0.0033
Card 2: Recent Inactive BI20S (-1,86.5] 59,881 58,096 23.7% 23.0% 0.0002
Card 2: Recent Inactive BI20S (86.5,99.5] 9,918 7,097 3.9% 2.8% 0.0037
Card 2: Recent Inactive BI20S (99.5,112.5] 7,387 5,993 2.9% 2.4% 0.0011
Card 2: Recent Inactive BI20S (112.5,152.5] 19,589 24,993 7.7% 9.9% 0.0052
Card 2: Recent Inactive BI20S (152.5,160.5] 6,195 3,364 2.4% 1.3% 0.0068
Card 2: Recent Inactive BI20S (160.5, Inf] 23,884 16,531 9.4% 6.5% 0.0107
Card 2: Recent Inactive FI20S (-Inf,-5] 869 932 0.3% 0.4% 0.0000
Card 2: Recent Inactive FI20S (-5,-1] 220,822 225,478 87.3% 89.1% 0.0004
Card 2: Recent Inactive FI20S (-1, Inf] 31,396 26,564 12.4% 10.5% 0.0032
Card 2: Recent Inactive MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-Inf,-6] 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0000
Card 2: Recent Inactive MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-6,-2] 177,971 194,172 70.3% 76.8% 0.0056
Card 2: Recent Inactive MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-2,-1] 226 256 0.1% 0.1% 0.0000
Card 2: Recent Inactive MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-1,2020.5] 29,298 27,758 11.6% 11.0% 0.0003
Card 2: Recent Inactive MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (2020.5,3510.5] 13,986 9,806 5.5% 3.9% 0.0059
Card 2: Recent Inactive MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (3510.5,7100.5] 15,176 10,968 6.0% 4.3% 0.0054
Card 2: Recent Inactive MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (7100.5,10047.5] 5,020 3,257 2.0% 1.3% 0.0030
Card 2: Recent Inactive MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (10047.5, Inf] 11,403 6,750 4.5% 2.7% 0.0096
Card 2: Recent Inactive TEL01S (-Inf,0.5] 100,353 108,208 39.7% 42.8% 0.0024
Card 2: Recent Inactive TEL01S (0.5,1.5] 92,075 93,343 36.4% 36.9% 0.0001
Card 2: Recent Inactive TEL01S (1.5, Inf] 60,659 51,423 24.0% 20.3% 0.0060

Card 3: No Revolving Trade

Card Feature Bin Dev. Count Pre Count Dev. % Pre % VSI
Card 3: No Revolving Trade AT103S (-Inf,10.5] 125,794 153,777 24.9% 31.3% 0.0144
Card 3: No Revolving Trade AT103S (10.5,53] 108,042 90,259 21.4% 18.4% 0.0047
Card 3: No Revolving Trade AT103S (53, Inf] 270,558 247,518 53.6% 50.4% 0.0021
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BC28S (-Inf,-5] 435 454 0.1% 0.1% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BC28S (-5,-3] 194,977 195,462 38.7% 39.8% 0.0003
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BC28S (-3,-2] 42,426 47,574 8.4% 9.7% 0.0018
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BC28S (-2,-1] 166,624 175,263 33.0% 35.7% 0.0020
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BC28S (-1,5003.5] 52,722 25,851 10.5% 5.3% 0.0357
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BC28S (5003.5,11650] 27,669 26,638 5.5% 5.4% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BC28S (11650, Inf] 19,541 20,312 3.9% 4.1% 0.0002
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (-Inf,-5] 589 821 0.1% 0.2% 0.0002
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (-5,-1] 125,592 115,248 24.9% 23.4% 0.0009
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (-1,65.5] 176,929 188,597 35.1% 38.4% 0.0029
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (65.5,94.5] 57,877 55,046 11.5% 11.2% 0.0001
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (94.5,109.5] 22,859 19,501 4.5% 4.0% 0.0008
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (109.5,149.5] 46,567 59,489 9.2% 12.1% 0.0078
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (149.5,160.5] 18,548 12,973 3.7% 2.6% 0.0034
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (160.5,173.5] 14,191 9,693 2.8% 2.0% 0.0030
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (173.5,217.5] 25,968 20,551 5.1% 4.2% 0.0020
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI20S (217.5, Inf] 15,274 9,635 3.0% 2.0% 0.0046
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (-Inf,-5] 3,705 11 0.7% 0.0% 0.0424
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (-5,-3] 148,940 147,349 29.5% 30.0% 0.0001
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (-3,-2] 8,231 6,012 1.6% 1.2% 0.0012
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (-2,-1] 125,592 115,248 24.9% 23.4% 0.0009
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (-1,15205] 27,053 30,413 5.4% 6.2% 0.0012
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (15205,20000.5] 16,483 17,936 3.3% 3.6% 0.0004
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (20000.5,25000.5] 14,193 15,758 2.8% 3.2% 0.0005
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (25000.5,30107.5] 17,168 19,821 3.4% 4.0% 0.0011
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (30107.5,40000.5] 20,702 19,776 4.1% 4.0% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (40000.5,55017] 27,995 27,879 5.6% 5.7% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (55017,70214] 14,567 14,984 2.9% 3.0% 0.0001
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (70214,99999.5] 14,880 15,091 3.0% 3.1% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (99999.5,131850] 18,171 17,823 3.6% 3.6% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (131850,198984.5] 12,316 11,903 2.4% 2.4% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (198984.5,299895] 10,683 10,183 2.1% 2.1% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (299895,485775] 9,032 8,396 1.8% 1.7% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade BI28S (485775, Inf] 14,683 12,971 2.9% 2.6% 0.0003
Card 3: No Revolving Trade FI101S (-2,-1] 379,640 378,138 75.3% 76.9% 0.0004
Card 3: No Revolving Trade FI101S (-Inf,-2] 42,244 30,989 8.4% 6.3% 0.0059
Card 3: No Revolving Trade FI101S (-1,24674.5] 52,062 52,451 10.3% 10.7% 0.0001
Card 3: No Revolving Trade FI101S (24674.5,68773] 13,536 14,312 2.7% 2.9% 0.0002
Card 3: No Revolving Trade FI101S (68773, Inf] 16,912 15,664 3.4% 3.2% 0.0001
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-2,-1] 225 231 0.0% 0.0% 0.0000
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-Inf,-2] 89,066 125,783 17.7% 25.6% 0.0294
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (-1,2021.5] 92,797 98,931 18.4% 20.1% 0.0016
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (2021.5,5000.87988] 122,813 111,076 24.3% 22.6% 0.0013
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (5000.87988,6733.5] 44,267 36,782 8.8% 7.5% 0.0021
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (6733.5,10039.5] 48,411 39,867 9.6% 8.1% 0.0025
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (10039.5,12501.5] 20,565 16,459 4.1% 3.3% 0.0014
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (12501.5,29182.6992] 48,131 37,204 9.5% 7.6% 0.0046
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (29182.6992,66877] 20,973 14,220 4.2% 2.9% 0.0046
Card 3: No Revolving Trade MAX_NON_MT_ACT24 (66877, Inf] 17,146 11,001 3.4% 2.2% 0.0049

Card 4: Revolving Trade

Card Feature Bin Dev. Count Pre Count Dev. % Pre % VSI
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (-Inf,-5] 1,430 1,864 0.2% 0.2% 0.0003
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (-5,8221] 43,071 45,981 5.1% 6.1% 0.0019
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (8221,14100.5] 37,361 43,077 4.4% 5.7% 0.0035
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (14100.5,19998.5] 23,219 25,226 2.7% 3.3% 0.0013
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (19998.5,38747.5] 72,447 72,586 8.5% 9.6% 0.0014
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (38747.5,62103] 71,659 66,555 8.4% 8.8% 0.0002
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (62103,71500.5] 22,490 20,519 2.6% 2.7% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (71500.5,95105] 46,005 42,463 5.4% 5.6% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (95105,131996.5] 61,207 53,265 7.2% 7.1% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (131996.5,179997.5] 57,495 49,663 6.8% 6.6% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (179997.5,236712.5] 52,100 44,542 6.1% 5.9% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (236712.5,293946] 38,939 32,915 4.6% 4.4% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (293946,447999] 76,379 63,461 9.0% 8.4% 0.0004
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (447999,723781] 75,373 59,182 8.9% 7.8% 0.0012
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (723781,1121449.5] 50,933 38,185 6.0% 5.1% 0.0015
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (1121449.5,1480445.5] 25,773 19,773 3.0% 2.6% 0.0006
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (1480445.5,2583982] 43,540 33,627 5.1% 4.5% 0.0009
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (2583982,4419250] 27,359 22,052 3.2% 2.9% 0.0003
Card 4: Revolving Trade AT28A (4419250, Inf] 24,113 19,045 2.8% 2.5% 0.0004
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (-Inf,-5] 2,563 3,339 0.3% 0.4% 0.0005
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (-5,5000.5] 87,283 69,397 10.3% 9.2% 0.0011
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (5000.5,6000.5] 15,686 15,020 1.8% 2.0% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (6000.5,7109.5] 13,370 12,338 1.6% 1.6% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (7109.5,8605.5] 34,895 35,486 4.1% 4.7% 0.0008
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (8605.5,10759] 89,706 95,184 10.5% 12.6% 0.0038
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (10759,13024.5] 43,667 40,351 5.1% 5.4% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (13024.5,15332.5] 52,619 54,573 6.2% 7.2% 0.0017
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (15332.5,18659] 46,503 41,584 5.5% 5.5% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (18659,24178.5] 76,682 70,730 9.0% 9.4% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (24178.5,32495.5] 88,107 73,941 10.4% 9.8% 0.0003
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (32495.5,39064] 43,467 34,568 5.1% 4.6% 0.0006
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (39064,53231.5] 69,558 56,395 8.2% 7.5% 0.0006
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (53231.5,71226] 45,545 36,251 5.4% 4.8% 0.0006
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (71226,99376.5] 39,172 31,879 4.6% 4.2% 0.0003
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (99376.5,124937] 23,683 19,413 2.8% 2.6% 0.0002
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (124937,161658.5] 20,121 17,305 2.4% 2.3% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (161658.5,210357.5] 17,000 14,243 2.0% 1.9% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (210357.5,381617.5] 27,687 22,406 3.3% 3.0% 0.0003
Card 4: Revolving Trade BC102S (381617.5, Inf] 13,579 9,578 1.6% 1.3% 0.0007
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (-Inf,-4] 203,082 185,405 23.9% 24.6% 0.0002
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (-4,-3] 89,677 75,926 10.5% 10.1% 0.0002
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (-3,-2] 25,199 21,905 3.0% 2.9% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (-2,-1] 39 45 0.0% 0.0% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (-1,26.6043491] 355,459 324,651 41.8% 43.1% 0.0004
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (26.6043491,558.691345] 33,123 33,761 3.9% 4.5% 0.0008
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (558.691345,1622.86536] 29,524 21,869 3.5% 2.9% 0.0010
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (1622.86536,5719.93555] 32,465 25,538 3.8% 3.4% 0.0005
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (5719.93555,15563.5449] 28,482 22,526 3.3% 3.0% 0.0004
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (15563.5449,69676.7969] 33,802 26,694 4.0% 3.5% 0.0005
Card 4: Revolving Trade BCU33S (69676.7969, Inf] 20,041 15,661 2.4% 2.1% 0.0003
Card 4: Revolving Trade MT20S (-Inf,-5] 472 476 0.1% 0.1% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade MT20S (-5,-1] 735,625 655,795 86.5% 87.0% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade MT20S (-1,30.5] 22,830 19,052 2.7% 2.5% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade MT20S (30.5,65.5] 22,133 24,628 2.6% 3.3% 0.0015
Card 4: Revolving Trade MT20S (65.5,112.5] 29,602 23,981 3.5% 3.2% 0.0003
Card 4: Revolving Trade MT20S (112.5,168.5] 22,287 16,581 2.6% 2.2% 0.0007
Card 4: Revolving Trade MT20S (168.5, Inf] 17,944 13,468 2.1% 1.8% 0.0005
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (-Inf,11.5] 22,412 21,316 2.6% 2.8% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (11.5,16.5] 19,291 20,225 2.3% 2.7% 0.0007
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (16.5,21.5] 24,008 27,949 2.8% 3.7% 0.0024
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (21.5,24.5] 16,878 20,158 2.0% 2.7% 0.0021
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (24.5,27.5] 18,502 22,536 2.2% 3.0% 0.0026
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (27.5,37.5] 75,320 82,329 8.9% 10.9% 0.0043
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (37.5,41.5] 34,722 33,898 4.1% 4.5% 0.0004
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (41.5,45.5] 36,238 33,578 4.3% 4.5% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (45.5,53.5] 73,627 65,179 8.7% 8.6% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (53.5,57.5] 36,174 31,094 4.3% 4.1% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (57.5,65.5] 68,767 58,268 8.1% 7.7% 0.0002
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (65.5,75.5] 77,756 63,845 9.1% 8.5% 0.0005
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (75.5,82.5] 47,904 38,425 5.6% 5.1% 0.0005
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (82.5,92.5] 58,851 46,387 6.9% 6.2% 0.0009
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (92.5,110.5] 80,682 64,000 9.5% 8.5% 0.0011
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (110.5,122.5] 39,618 33,044 4.7% 4.4% 0.0002
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (122.5,130.5] 22,004 18,741 2.6% 2.5% 0.0000
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (130.5,141.5] 25,794 21,484 3.0% 2.8% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (141.5,152.5] 20,940 17,372 2.5% 2.3% 0.0001
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (152.5,169.5] 23,616 17,649 2.8% 2.3% 0.0007
Card 4: Revolving Trade S004S (169.5, Inf] 27,789 16,504 3.3% 2.2% 0.0043

4 Fit Metrics

4.1 Whole Population

Pop. Version Spearman Corr. RMSE
test New Score 0.613 21,165
train New Score 0.617 21,150
test Old Score 0.592 30,502
train Old Score 0.595 30,509

5 Diagnostic Plots

5.1 Predicted vs. Observed Histograms

(X axis truncated at $200K)

6 Accuracy

6.1 Bin differences

6.1.1 Confusion Matrix - Overall

Rows sum to 100%.

6.1.2 Confusion Matrix - By Segment

6.1.2.1 Confusion Matrix for Card 1: TelCo-Only

Rows sum to 100%

6.1.2.2 Confusion Matrix for Card 2: Recent Inact.

Rows sum to 100%

6.1.2.3 Confusion Matrix for Card 3: No Revolving

Rows sum to 100%

6.1.2.4 Confusion Matrix for Card 4: Revolver

Rows sum to 100%

6.1.3 Bin Characteristics - Observed

Observed Income Range pop % of Sample Mean Observed Mean Predicted Median Observed Median Predicted
< $5K 113,291 6.6% $3,275 $11,117 $3,200 $8,817
$5K to $10K 342,591 19.9% $7,796 $12,446 $8,000 $10,200
$10K to $15K 345,288 20.1% $11,940 $13,651 $11,583 $11,482
$15K to $18K 271,119 15.8% $16,058 $16,910 $15,600 $13,324
$18K to $22K 132,035 7.7% $19,826 $22,242 $20,000 $15,526
$22K to $30K 142,985 8.3% $25,826 $29,056 $25,000 $19,851
$30K to $40K 116,654 6.8% $34,305 $34,096 $34,374 $24,018
$40K to $50K 78,068 4.5% $46,547 $38,930 $47,248 $29,921
$50K to $100K 140,245 8.2% $64,723 $56,852 $60,000 $47,027
> $100K 35,021 2.0% $149,344 $108,173 $143,000 $114,089

6.1.4 Bin Characteristics - Predicted

Predicted Income Range pop % of Sample Mean Observed Mean Predicted Median Observed Median Predicted
< $5K 4,474 0.3% $10,041 $4,655 $8,645 $4,748
$5K to $10K 464,945 27.1% $11,014 $7,582 $9,648 $7,640
$10K to $15K 496,030 28.9% $15,291 $12,466 $13,800 $12,438
$15K to $18K 160,881 9.4% $18,995 $16,353 $15,600 $16,279
$18K to $22K 122,588 7.1% $22,527 $19,698 $18,000 $19,584
$22K to $30K 123,862 7.2% $28,903 $25,750 $24,485 $25,584
$30K to $40K 102,574 6.0% $33,427 $34,734 $29,500 $34,596
$40K to $50K 57,971 3.4% $39,781 $44,406 $36,000 $44,043
$50K to $100K 121,601 7.1% $52,614 $69,854 $48,836 $67,462
> $100K 62,371 3.6% $88,034 $129,793 $70,200 $126,566

6.2 Difference Between Prediction and Observation

Predicted - Observed Diff. Observations % of Sample
< -30% 478,058 27.8%
-30% to -25% 78,261 4.6%
-25% to -20% 76,869 4.5%
-20% to -15% 72,870 4.2%
-15% to -10% 71,024 4.1%
-10% to -5% 68,258 4.0%
-5% to 0% 58,740 3.4%
0% to 5% 54,074 3.1%
5% to 10% 52,379 3.1%
10% to 15% 50,723 3.0%
15% to 20% 42,783 2.5%
20% to 25% 40,943 2.4%
25% to 30% 37,771 2.2%
> 30% 534,544 31.1%