Understanding Science and Models

• Please read “Chapter 1: Models, Agent-Based Models, and the Modeling Cycle” in Railsback & Grimm before Monday's class time

Statement: Scientists follow the same step-by-step scientific method.

“In fact, the Scientific Method represents how scientists usually write up the results of their studies (and how a few investigations are actually done), but it is a grossly oversimplified representation of how scientists generally build knowledge.”
- Understanding Science

University of California Museum of Paleontology’s Understanding Science (http://www.understandingscience.org)

Difference is between how how science is done versus how science is reported.

Asteroids and dinosaurs: Unexpected twists and an unfinished story
(PDF version)

University of California Museum of Paleontology’s Understanding Science (http://www.understandingscience.org)

Statement: Well-supported hypotheses become theories, and well-supported theories become laws.

“…hypotheses, theories, and laws are rather like apples, oranges, and kumquats: one cannot grow into another, no matter how much fertilizer and water are offered.”
- Understanding Science

“Hypotheses, theories, and laws are all scientific explanations that differ in breadth — not in level of support.”
- Understanding Science

Hypothesis: Hypotheses are explanations that are limited in scope, applying to fairly narrow range of phenomena.

Theory: Theories are deep explanations that apply to a broad range of phenomena and that may integrate many hypotheses and laws.

Statement: The aim of scientific testing is to prove a hypothesis correct.

“Science is based on the principle that any idea, no matter how widely accepted today, could be overturned tomorrow if the evidence warranted it. Science accepts or rejects ideas based on the evidence; it does not prove or disprove them.”
- Understanding Science

Multiple representations are important!!!

Definition: Modeling is 1) the process of moving from observations of the real world to a model, 2) moving from one model representation to another model representation, or 3) comparing different models.

Discuss: Why are models and modeling useful?

Answer: Models can be used for prediction, explanation and understanding.

Note: You are already constructing models and doing modeling!!!

In this course, we will work to become proficient in understanding, analyzing, and creating models - in particular mathematical models.

• models can make accurate predictions,
• models can generate causal explanations.
• simple, unrealistic models help scientists explore complex systems,
• models can be used to explore unknown possibilities,
• models can lead to the development of conceptual frameworks,
• models help expose assumptions,
• models help define expectations,
• models help us to devise new tests.