Wardwise - Factsheet

This is an attempt to make all possible analysis from the existing data set (electoral data). First, we will take a look into the Ward level data and focus on electoral performances of each Ward Presidents.


Wardwise - MAP

Following is an interactive map of Baglung district with each polygons representing the actual Ward. Map is clickable and on each click will provide basic info abt specific ward.



A prima facia look suggests that Nishikhola 7 and Nishikhola 3 should be something NC should take a close look at (all other Wards of Nisikhola is won by NC). Likewise Galkot 1, and a clusters of wards of Jaimuni won by Rastriya Jana Morcha seems like something NC should take a serious look into, as there seems significant NC presence in the sorrounding location.


Total no. of Wards won

The row in green highlights suggests those Local Government where NC wins has the highest No. of Ward Chairperson (or joint highest !). A thing to note is that in Baglung majority of 31 Ward Chairs are from NC !!


Electoral Performance - Among those that won

First we will look into those Wards where NC has won and assess their electoral performance. The criteria set(arbitrarily) is as follow:

  • Green = Those ward chairs who won with margin more than 20 % margin(of total vote cast)
  • Red = Those ward chairs who won with less than 10 % margin (of total vote cast)
  • Yellow = Those ward chairs who won with margin between 10-20 % (of total vote cast)


However Note to be considered: it does not consider those wards where NC did not contest at all or those wards where NC won unopposed !

In Map


Following table summarizes the total number of ward’s (won by NC) against the criteria set

Assessment of Ward Chair post among seats won

zone total
Green 11
Red 11
Yellow 6

Breakdown


Each tab below will provide the table of Ward chairs for each category (Red, Green and Yellow)

Green Zone

Red Zone

Yellow Zone


Electoral Performance of Ward chair - where Lost


Now lets look into those wards where NC lost the chairperson. The Criteria is similar as above:

  • Green: Ward where NC lost with less than 10% margin (of total vote cast)
  • Red: Wards where NC lost with more than 20% margin (of the total vote cast)
  • Yellow: Wards where NC lost with margin between 10-20 % (of the total vote cast)

However Note to be considered: it does not consider those wards where NC did not contest at all or those wards where NC won unopposed !


In Map

Assessment of Ward Chair post among seats lost

zone total
Green 14
Red 18
Yellow 18

Breakdown


Green Zone

Red Zone

Yellow Zone

Combined Assessment of Ward Chair - in zones


Following map combines the assessment made above (both those won and lost). Hence, the Green zones, for example, suggests those that can be considered either comfortable (based on electoral performance) or considered to be relatively “easy” to win. But it also means there are Red zones in this map that NC won but was considered in Red (because of margin less than 10%).

I know this map is confusing… still working out how it can be tweaked to show more realistic picture..


Assessing vote pattern recived by Chair of LG (comparison to cumulative vote of NC in ward)


Following is a table that compares the vote received by candidate of NC for the position of chair of LG along with cumulative votes received by the candidates of NC at the wards of respective LG (the idea is to see if the vote pattern are linear…)



The above table suggests that apart from Tamankhole the vote pattern have not significantly changed. Perhaps it would be interesting to know how जोकलाल बुढा won there !!

This also means the votes pattern looks rational… any significant change in vote will require organized increase of panel votes; (also there is very less evidence to suggests that there could be as many swing votes in Baglung !)


LG Chair in Map

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_text).