Central Asia Drug Trafficking Project

Media Outlets

The list of media outlets for our data can be found here

Frequency Tables: Events / Countries / Years

This is based on the revised list of keywords

Events by Country by Year (2015 - 2021)

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Sum
KAZ	5929	8284	7710	7317	8714	5686	3615	47255
KGZ	6483	7209	5892	5550	7637	5280	4215	42266
TJK	6722	6779	3523	4510	2508	1490	3816	29348
TKM	2795	3781	2624	2545	2232	1455	1530	16962
UZB	5946	8408	6428	5980	4994	3479	5170	40405
Sum	27875	34461	26177	25902	26085	17390	18346	176236

N for our data (2015 - 2021) = 176236.

Barplots

We can visualize the above information with simple barplots:

Frequency of Event Types

This table shows the frequency of each of our selected keywords in the data. Keywords SEIZE and ARMEDCONFLICT are matched with Code 1 (Drug Related) Events.

Frequency of Event Types

Theme	EventType	Count
ARREST	3	84372
SOC_GENERALCRIME	4	66328
WB__ORGANIZED_CRIME	4	61604
WB__DRUGS_AND_NARCOTICS	1	55534
CORRUPTION	5	51902
DRUG_TRADE	1	39727
ARMEDCONFLICT	2	30531
CRIME_CARTELS	1	18306
CRIME_ILLEGAL_DRUGS	1	18252
ORGANIZED_CRIME	2	13613
SMUGGLING	4	10893
KIDNAP	2	10820
HUMAN_TRAFFICKING	4	9015
CONFISCATION	3	8397
CHECKPOINT	4	8172
PERSECUTION	3	6810
TORTURE	3	6441
VIOLENT_UNREST	4	5734
SEIZE	3	5410
WB__MONEY_LAUNDERING	4	4555
CRIME_COMMON_ROBBERY	4	3372
WB__ANTICARTEL_ENFORCEMENT	3	1638
WB__CARTELS	1	1615
BLACK_MARKET	4	1496
MIL_SELF_IDENTIFIED_ARMS_DEAL	4	1393
ASSASSINATION	2	1360
UNREST_POLICEBRUTALITY	3	761
WB__ILLICIT_FINANCIAL_FLOWS	4	389
WB__COUNTERFEIT_GOODS	4	283
ECON_INFORMAL_ECONOMY	4	239
WB__CRIME_NETWORKS	4	100
TAX_TERROR_GROUP	4	63
TAX_CARTELS	1	NA

Map: All Events / Countries:

Code 1: Drug Related Reports

Event Type: Drug Related Reports

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Sum
KAZ	1687	2199	1988	1660	1186	1402	1143	11265
KGZ	1827	1660	1226	1201	2185	740	744	9583
TJK	3716	3648	1443	2082	1043	738	2210	14880
TKM	1492	1963	1507	888	934	349	818	7951
UZB	2508	3592	1941	2332	1404	759	2807	15343
Sum	11230	13062	8105	8163	6752	3988	7722	59022

Event Type: Drug Related Reports

Theme	Count
WB__DRUGS_AND_NARCOTICS	55534
DRUG_TRADE	39727
CRIME_CARTELS	18306
CRIME_ILLEGAL_DRUGS	18252
WB__CARTELS	1615
TAX_CARTELS	NA

Code 2: Violence by Organised Criminal Groups

Event Type: Violence by Organised Criminal Groups

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Sum
KAZ	1438	1477	1531	1342	971	781	718	8258
KGZ	1300	1036	997	948	1719	1185	1806	8991
TJK	2370	2669	1124	1796	883	668	2148	11658
TKM	876	1086	1389	574	554	208	567	5254
UZB	2166	2932	1709	1824	1092	686	2059	12468
Sum	8150	9200	6750	6484	5219	3528	7298	46629

Event Type: Violence by Organised Criminal Groups

Theme	Count
ARMEDCONFLICT	30531
ORGANIZED_CRIME	13613
KIDNAP	10820
ASSASSINATION	1360

Code 3: Violence by the State

Table 3.1: Keyword Frequencies

Event Type: Violence by the State

Theme	Count
ARREST	84372
SEIZE (All)	32825
CONFISCATION	8397
PERSECUTION	6810
TORTURE	6441
SEIZE (Drugs Related)	5410
WB__ANTICARTEL_ENFORCEMENT	1638
UNREST_POLICEBRUTALITY	761

Table 3.2 State Violence Events, No filters on SEIZE

Event Type: Violence by the State

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Sum
KAZ	2988	5572	4334	3986	5819	3314	1859	27872
KGZ	3138	3796	3407	2771	3845	3358	2592	22907
TJK	3612	3798	1718	2291	1181	864	1610	15074
TKM	1623	2727	1274	1358	971	816	515	9284
UZB	3993	5387	4283	2693	2532	1909	2399	23196
Sum	15354	21280	15016	13099	14348	10261	8975	98333

Table 3.3 State Violence Events (including SEIZE when SEIZE is matched with Drug Related Events)

Event Type: Violence by the State

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Sum
KAZ	2802	5083	4024	3712	5503	3190	1699	26013
KGZ	2924	3539	3112	2592	3628	2934	2279	21008
TJK	3498	3586	1597	2191	1105	857	1507	14341
TKM	1510	2597	1200	1295	900	755	508	8765
UZB	3707	4910	3919	2485	2407	1732	2220	21380
Sum	14441	19715	13852	12275	13543	9468	8213	91507

Table 3.4 SEIZE related events only, when SEIZE is matched with Drug Related Events

Event Type: Violence by the State

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Sum
KAZ	65	203	110	154	107	129	47	815
KGZ	106	124	48	60	64	57	92	551
TJK	378	255	86	196	107	22	351	1395
TKM	59	569	193	35	42	53	28	979
UZB	276	501	163	109	124	16	481	1670
Sum	884	1652	600	554	444	277	999	5410

Code 4: Contextual Review of Shadow Economy

Event Type: Contextual Review of Shadow Economy

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Sum
KAZ	4046	4940	4902	4408	4773	3581	2294	28944
KGZ	3942	4173	3552	3460	5276	3478	2762	26643
TJK	5471	5403	2391	3528	1732	1199	2822	22546
TKM	2121	2811	2098	1537	1603	975	1189	12334
UZB	4620	5975	4518	4233	3351	2062	3975	28734
Sum	20200	23302	17461	17166	16735	11295	13042	119201

Event Type: Contextual Review of Shadow Economy

Theme	Count
SOC_GENERALCRIME	66328
WB__ORGANIZED_CRIME	61604
SMUGGLING	10893
HUMAN_TRAFFICKING	9015
CHECKPOINT	8172
VIOLENT_UNREST	5734
WB__MONEY_LAUNDERING	4555
CRIME_COMMON_ROBBERY	3372
BLACK_MARKET	1496
MIL_SELF_IDENTIFIED_ARMS_DEAL	1393
WB__ILLICIT_FINANCIAL_FLOWS	389
WB__COUNTERFEIT_GOODS	283
ECON_INFORMAL_ECONOMY	239
WB__CRIME_NETWORKS	100
TAX_TERROR_GROUP	63

Code 5: Cases of Corruption

Event Type: Corrruption

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	Sum
KAZ	1965	2472	2487	2232	2346	1881	924	14307
KGZ	2385	2070	2213	2336	3276	2208	1699	16187
TJK	1764	1933	971	1321	627	376	755	7747
TKM	606	712	694	293	500	329	257	3391
UZB	1594	2082	1430	1265	1520	1197	1182	10270
Sum	8314	9269	7795	7447	8269	5991	4817	51902

Event Type: Corrruption

Theme	Count
CORRUPTION	51902

All five barplots/maps together

MAP : CLEANER MAPS NEED TO BE GENERATED TOMORROW (Manually filtering out the generic coordinates is taking longer than I expected)

Correlation and Regression Results:

These plots show the relationship between the five kinds of events:

The numbers represent the correlation coefficients between the pairs. For example, code 1 (Drug related events) has a positive correlation with Criminal Group violence (coefficient = 0.51), and negative relationship with state violence (coeff = - 0.20).

Section: Maps (2021 Only)

Correlation between keywords

The table for correlations is below. The actual spreadsheet can be found here

	c1_cartels	c1_illegal_drugs	c1_drrug_trade	c1_wb_cartels	c1_wb_drugs_narcotics	c2_assasination	c2_armedc	c2_kidnap	c2_organizedcrime	c3_arrest	c3_confiscation	c3_persecution	c3_seize	c3_torture	c3_policebrutality	c3_wb_anticartel_enforcement	c4_blackmarket	c4_checkpoint	c4_robbery	c4_informalecon	c4_humantraff	c4_armsdeal	c4_smuggling	c4_generalcrime	c4_terrorgroup	c4_violentunrest	c4_organizedcrime	c4_counterfeitgoods	c4_wb_illicit_fin_flows	c4_wb_moneylaunder	c5_corruption
c1_cartels	1.00	0.15	0.51	0.10	0.48	-0.01	0.27	-0.05	0.24	-0.21	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.10	-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.02	0.00	-0.03	0.44	-0.01	0.07	0.00	-0.13
c1_illegal_drugs	0.15	1.00	0.43	0.03	0.42	0.02	0.35	-0.01	0.11	-0.08	0.01	0.00	0.17	0.06	0.00	0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.03	0.07	0.17	0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.38	0.00	0.03	0.01	-0.07
c1_drrug_trade	0.51	0.43	1.00	0.01	0.75	0.00	0.49	-0.04	0.17	-0.23	-0.02	-0.04	0.14	0.08	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.05	0.18	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	0.70	-0.01	0.04	0.01	-0.16
c1_wb_cartels	0.10	0.03	0.01	1.00	0.01	0.02	0.09	0.01	0.13	-0.03	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.99	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	-0.01
c1_wb_drugs_narcotics	0.48	0.42	0.75	0.01	1.00	0.01	0.62	-0.01	0.20	-0.22	0.07	0.00	0.25	0.24	0.06	0.01	-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.06	0.09	0.20	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.93	-0.02	0.03	0.00	-0.19
c2_assasination	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.01	1.00	0.05	0.03	0.04	0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.01
c2_armedc	0.27	0.35	0.49	0.09	0.62	0.05	1.00	0.07	0.18	-0.05	0.11	0.07	0.28	0.37	0.09	0.09	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.07	0.13	0.21	0.07	0.00	0.04	0.58	-0.01	0.03	0.03	-0.06
c2_kidnap	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.07	1.00	0.04	0.07	0.03	0.07	0.09	0.15	0.07	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.08	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04
c2_organizedcrime	0.24	0.11	0.17	0.13	0.20	0.04	0.18	0.04	1.00	-0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.12	-0.01	0.13	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.13	0.30	0.00	-0.01	0.32	0.00	0.05	0.06	0.02
c3_arrest	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-0.03	-0.22	0.03	-0.05	0.07	-0.07	1.00	0.13	0.09	0.07	0.17	0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.13	0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.04	0.27	-0.01	0.07	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03
c3_confiscation	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.11	0.03	0.07	0.13	1.00	0.11	0.21	0.27	0.00	0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.09	0.01	0.00	0.06	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.01
c3_persecution	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.09	0.11	1.00	0.04	0.18	0.02	0.04	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02
c3_seize	0.01	0.17	0.14	0.02	0.25	0.06	0.28	0.09	0.04	0.07	0.21	0.04	1.00	0.21	0.10	0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.01	0.03	0.13	0.14	0.05	0.01	0.05	0.23	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01
c3_torture	-0.01	0.06	0.08	0.03	0.24	0.02	0.37	0.15	0.12	0.17	0.27	0.18	0.21	1.00	0.13	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.01	0.07	0.08	0.04	0.16	0.00	0.09	0.24	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.05
c3_policebrutality	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.09	0.07	-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.02	0.10	0.13	1.00	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.19	-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.23	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02
c3_wb_anticartel_enforcement	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.99	0.01	0.02	0.09	0.01	0.13	-0.03	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	-0.01
c4_blackmarket	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.02
c4_checkpoint	-0.04	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.01	-0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.10
c4_robbery	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	-0.01
c4_informalecon	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01
c4_humantraff	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.06	-0.02	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1.00	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.16	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.03
c4_armsdeal	0.05	0.07	0.05	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.13	0.08	0.19	0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.06	1.00	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.07	0.08	0.03	0.00	0.07	0.04
c4_smuggling	0.01	0.17	0.18	0.02	0.20	0.05	0.21	0.04	0.13	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.14	0.04	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.05	1.00	0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.20	0.02	0.00	0.03	-0.02
c4_generalcrime	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.03	0.07	0.08	0.30	0.27	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.16	0.06	-0.01	-0.03	-0.11	0.06	-0.01	0.01	0.04	0.03	1.00	-0.01	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.03	0.05	0.00
c4_terrorgroup	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	1.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01
c4_violentunrest	-0.03	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.07	0.00	0.04	0.05	0.09	0.23	0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.05	0.00	1.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01
c4_organizedcrime	0.44	0.38	0.70	0.01	0.93	0.02	0.58	0.00	0.32	-0.23	0.06	-0.01	0.23	0.24	0.05	0.01	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	0.16	0.08	0.20	0.06	-0.01	-0.02	1.00	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.18
c4_counterfeitgoods	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.05	1.00	0.01	0.02	-0.01
c4_wb_illicit_fin_flows	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.04	0.01	1.00	0.14	0.03
c4_wb_moneylaunder	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.05	0.03	0.00	0.06	-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.14	1.00	0.25
c5_corruption	-0.13	-0.07	-0.16	-0.01	-0.19	0.01	-0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.05	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.10	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.18	-0.01	0.03	0.25	1.00

SEIZURE MAP